Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities.

Introduction: This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies. Methods: We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population. Results: Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts. Conclusions: The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

Cardiovascular Events and Costs With Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management for Uncontrolled Hypertension.

Uncontrolled hypertension is a leading contributor to cardiovascular disease. A cluster-randomized trial in 16 primary care clinics showed that 12 months of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management lowered blood pressure more than usual care (UC) for 24 months. We report cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalized heart failure, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death) and costs over 5 years of follow-up. In the telemonitoring intervention (TI group, n=228), there were 15 cardiovascular events (5 myocardial infarction, 4 stroke, 5 heart failure, 1 cardiovascular death) among 10 patients. In UC group (n=222), there were 26 events (11 myocardial infarction, 12 stroke, 3 heart failure) among 19 patients. The cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 4.4% in the TI group versus 8.6% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.21-1.13], P=0.09). Including 2 coronary revascularizations in the TI group and 10 in the UC group, the secondary cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 5.3% in the TI group versus 10.4% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.22-1.08], P=0.08). Microsimulation modeling showed the difference in events far exceeded predictions based on observed blood pressure. Intervention costs (in 2017 US dollars) were $1511 per patient. Over 5 years, estimated event costs were $758 000 in the TI group and $1 538 000 in the UC group for a return on investment of 126% and a net cost savings of about $1900 per patient. Telemonitoring with pharmacist management lowered blood pressure and may have reduced costs by avoiding cardiovascular events over 5 years. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00781365.

Health and Budgetary Impact of Achieving 10-Year U.S. Sodium Reduction Targets.

INTRODUCTION: This study estimates the health, economic, and budgetary impact resulting from graduated sodium reductions in the commercially produced food supply of the U.S., which are consistent with draft U.S. Food and Drug Administration voluntary guidance and correspond to Healthy People 2020 objectives and the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. METHODS: Reduction in mean U.S. dietary sodium consumption to 2,300 mg/day was implemented in a microsimulation model designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease-related policies in the U.S. POPULATION: The analysis was conducted in 2018-2020, and the microsimulation model was constructed using various data sources from 1948 to 2018. Modeled outcomes over 10 years included prevalence of systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease events, and cardiovascular disease-related mortality; averted medical costs by payer in 2017 U.S. dollars; and productivity. RESULTS: Reducing sodium consumption is expected to reduce the number of people with systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg by about 22% and prevent approximately 895.2 thousand cardiovascular disease events (including 218.9 thousand myocardial infarctions and 284.5 thousand strokes) and 252.5 thousand cardiovascular disease-related deaths over 10 years in the U.S. Savings from averted disease costs are expected to total almost $37 billion-most of which would be attributed to Medicare ($18.4 billion) and private insurers ($13.4 billion)-and increased productivity from reduced disease burden and premature mortality would account for another $18.2 billion in gains. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic sodium reductions in the U.S. food supply can be expected to produce substantial health and economic benefits over a 10-year period, particularly for Medicare and private insurers.

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets. RESULTS: The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6-9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: 1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. METHODS: Using the HealthPartners Institute's ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. RESULTS: The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. CONCLUSION: Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

Twenty-year health and economic impact of reducing cigarette use: Minnesota 1998-2017.

BACKGROUND: Adult smoking prevalence in Minnesota fell from 21.8% in 1997 to 15.2% in 2016. This reduction improved heart and lung health, prevented cancers, extended life and reduced healthcare costs, but quantifying these benefits is difficult. METHODS: 1.3 million individuals were simulated in a tobacco policy model to estimate the gains to Minnesotans from 1998 to 2017 in health, medical spending reductions and productivity gains due to reduced cigarette smoking. A constant prevalence scenario was created to simulate the tobacco harms that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. Those harms were compared with tobacco harms from a scenario of actual smoking prevalence in Minnesota from 1998 to 2017. RESULTS: The simulation model predicts that reducing cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2017 has prevented 4560 cancers, 31 691 hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 12 881 respiratory disease hospitalisations and 4118 smoking-attributable deaths. Minnesotans spent an estimated $2.7 billion less in medical care and gained $2.4 billion in paid and unpaid productivity, inflation adjusted to 2017 US$. In sensitivity analysis, medical care savings ranged from $1.7 to $3.6 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Minnesota's investment in comprehensive tobacco control measures has driven down smoking rates, saved billions in medical care and productivity costs and prevented tobacco related diseases of its residents. The simulation method employed in this study can be adapted to other geographies and time periods to bring to light the invisible gains of tobacco control.

Modeling the Health and Budgetary Impacts of a Team-based Hypertension Care Intervention That Includes Pharmacists.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the potential health and budgetary impacts of implementing a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension management model in the United States. RESEARCH DESIGN: In 2017, we evaluated a pharmacist-involved team-based care intervention among 3 targeted groups using a microsimulation model designed to estimate cardiovascular event incidence and associated health care spending in a cross-section of individuals representative of the US population: implementing it among patients with: (1) newly diagnosed hypertension; (2) persistently (≥1 year) uncontrolled blood pressure (BP); or (3) treated, yet persistently uncontrolled BP-and report outcomes over 5 and 20 years. We describe the spending thresholds for each intervention strategy to achieve budget neutrality in 5 years from a payer's perspective. RESULTS: Offering this intervention could prevent 22.9-36.8 million person-years of uncontrolled BP and 77,200-230,900 heart attacks and strokes in 5 years (83.8-174.8 million and 393,200-922,900 in 20 years, respectively). Health and economic benefits strongly favored groups 2 and 3. Assuming an intervention cost of $525 per enrollee, the intervention generates 5-year budgetary cost-savings only for Medicare among groups 2 and 3. To achieve budget neutrality in 5 years across all groups, intervention costs per person need to be around $35 for Medicaid, $180 for private insurance, and $335 for Medicare enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension model could substantially improve BP control and cardiovascular outcomes in the United States. Net cost-savings among groups 2 and 3 make a compelling case for Medicare, but favorable economics may also be possible for private insurers, particularly if innovations could moderately lower the cost of delivering an effective intervention.

Economic Evaluation of the Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Case Management to Control Hypertension (Hyperlink) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacist-managed (team-based) care for hypertension with home blood pressure monitoring support interventions have been widely studied and shown to be effective in improving rates of hypertension control and lowering blood pressure; however, few studies have evaluated the economic considerations related to bringing these programs into usual practice. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the economic outcomes of the Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management on Blood Pressure (Hyperlink) study, a cluster randomized controlled trial which used home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist case management to achieve better blood pressure control in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. METHODS: A prospective analysis compared differences in medical costs and encounters in the Hyperlink telemonitoring intervention and usual care groups in the 12 months pre- and post-enrollment using medical and pharmacy insurance claims from a health care sector perspective. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate differences between groups over time. These results, combined with previously published prospective study results on intervention costs and blood pressure outcomes, were used to estimate cost-effectiveness measures for blood pressure control and reduction. FINDINGS: Total medical costs in the intervention group were lower compared with the usual care group by an average of $281 per person, but this difference was not statistically significant. Clinic-based office visit, radiology, pharmacy, and hospital costs were also non-significantly lower in the intervention group. Statistically significant differences were found in lipid-related laboratory costs (higher) and in hypertension- (higher) and lipid-related (lower) pharmacy costs. Patterns in medical costs were similar for medical encounters. On average, the intervention cost $7337 per person achieving hypertension control and $139 or $265 per mm Hg reduction in systolic or diastolic blood pressure, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Home blood pressure monitoring and pharmacist case management to improve hypertension care can be implemented without increasing, and potentially reducing, overall medical care costs.

Updated Priorities Among Effective Clinical Preventive Services.

PURPOSE: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's provisions for first-dollar coverage of evidence-based preventive services have reduced an important barrier to receipt of preventive care. Safety-net providers, however, still serve a substantial uninsured population, and clinician and patient time remain limited in all primary care settings. As a consequence, decision makers continue to set priorities to help focus their efforts. This report updates estimates of relative health impact and cost-effectiveness for evidence-based preventive services. METHODS: We assessed the potential impact of 28 evidence-based clinical preventive services in terms of their cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden, as measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of the 2 measures-cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden-for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. New microsimulation models were used to provide updated estimates of 12 of these services. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally. RESULTS: The 3 highest-ranking services, each with a total score of 10, are immunizing children, counseling to prevent tobacco initiation among youth, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention to encourage cessation among adults. Greatest population health improvement could be obtained from increasing utilization of clinical preventive services that address tobacco use, obesity-related behaviors, and alcohol misuse, as well as colorectal cancer screening and influenza vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies high-priority preventive services and should help decision makers select which services to emphasize in quality-improvement initiatives.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Asymptomatic Screening for Hypertension and High Cholesterol and Aspirin Counseling for Primary Prevention.

PURPOSE: Our aim was to update estimates of the health and economic impact of clinical services recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for the comparative rankings of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, and to explore differences in outcomes by sex and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We used a single, integrated, microsimulation model to generate comparable results for 3 services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force: aspirin counseling for the primary prevention of CVD and colorectal cancer, screening and treatment for lipid disorders (usually high cholesterol), and screening and treatment for hypertension. Analyses compare lifetime outcomes from the societal perspective for a US-representative birth cohort of 100,000 persons with and without access to each clinical preventive service. Primary outcomes are health impact, measured by the net difference in lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness, measured in incremental cost per QALY or cost savings per person in 2012 dollars. Results are also presented for population subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Health impact is highest for hypertension screening and treatment (15,600 QALYs), but is closely followed by cholesterol screening and treatment (14,300 QALYs). Aspirin counseling has a lower health impact (2,200 QALYs) but is found to be cost saving ($31 saved per person). Cost-effectiveness for cholesterol and hypertension screening and treatment is $33,800 per QALY and $48,500 per QALY, respectively. Findings favor hypertension over cholesterol screening and treatment for women, and opportunities to reduce disease burden across all services are greatest for the non-Hispanic black population. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 CVD preventive services continue to rank highly among other recommended preventive services for US adults, but individual priorities can be tailored in practice by taking a patient's demographic characteristics and clinical objectives into account.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults.

PURPOSE: To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. METHODS: We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. RESULTS: Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. CONCLUSIONS: Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time.

The financial impact of team-based care on primary care.

OBJECTIVES: Although team-based care can improve coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and is considered cost-effective from a healthcare system perspective, little is known about the financial impact of team-based primary care for secondary prevention of CHD. The purpose of this study was to define the impact of team-based care for CHD on utilization, costs, and revenue of a private primary care practice. STUDY DESIGN: Interrupted time series analysis. METHODS: Between March 1, 2010, and March 31, 2013, we assisted a private medical practice, comprising 5 primary care clinic sites, to organize and deliver team-based care for patients with CHD. We used billing records and the registered nurse care manager's diary to calculate the cost of team-based care, differences in the average number of visits per patient, and revenue per patient before and after the implementation of team-based care. RESULTS: The net cost of team-based primary care was $291 per patient over the 1-year period of observation. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study are consistent with other economic analyses of team-based care and suggest that payment for care must be restructured if patients are expected to enjoy the benefits of team-based primary care.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that aspirin is effective for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) but also increases the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) and cerebral hemorrhages. OBJECTIVE: To assess the net balance of benefits and harms from routine aspirin use across clinically relevant age, sex, and CVD risk groups. DESIGN: Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: 3 systematic evidence reviews. TARGET POPULATION: Men and women aged 40 to 79 years with a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or less, and no history of CVD and without elevated risk for GI or cerebral hemorrhages that would contraindicate aspirin use. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime, 20 years, and 10 years. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical. INTERVENTION: Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes are length and quality of life measured in net life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. Benefits include reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal CVD, CRC incidence, and CRC mortality. Harms include increased fatal and nonfatal GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years are positive for most adults initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 69 years, and life expectancy gains are expected for most men and women initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 59 years and 60 to 69 years with higher CVD risk. Harms may exceed benefits for persons starting aspirin in their 70s and for many during the first 10 to 20 years of use. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are most sensitive to the relative risk for hemorrhagic stroke and CVD mortality but are affected by all relative risk estimates, baseline GI bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates, and disutilities associated with aspirin use. LIMITATIONS: Aspirin effects by age are uncertain. Stroke benefits are conservatively estimated. Gastrointestinal bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates account only for age and sex. CONCLUSION: Lifetime aspirin use for primary prevention initiated at younger ages (40 to 69 years) and in persons with higher CVD risk shows the greatest potential for positive net benefit. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Modeled Health and Economic Impact of Team-Based Care for Hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: Team-based interventions for hypertension care have been widely studied and shown effective in improving hypertension outcomes. Few studies have evaluated long-term effects of these interventions; none have assessed broad-scale implementation. This study estimates the prospective health, economic, and budgetary impact of universal adoption of a team-based care intervention model that targets people with treated but uncontrolled hypertension in the U.S. METHODS: Analysis was conducted in 2014-2015 using a microsimulation model, constructed with various data sources from 1948 to 2014, designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related interventions in the U.S. POPULATION: Ten-year primary outcomes included prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, CVD events, and CVD-related mortality; intervention and net medical costs by payer; productivity; and quality-adjusted life years. RESULTS: About 4.7 million (13%) fewer people with uncontrolled hypertension and 638,000 prevented cardiovascular events would be expected over 10 years. Assuming $525 per enrollee, implementation would cost payers $22.9 billion, but $25.3 billion would be saved in averted medical costs. Estimated net cost savings for Medicare approached $5.8 billion. Net costs were especially sensitive to intervention costs, with break-even thresholds of $300 (private), $450 (Medicaid), and $750 (Medicare). CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide adoption of team-based care for uncontrolled hypertension could have sizable effects in reducing CVD burden. Based on the study's assumptions, the policy would be cost saving from the perspective of Medicare and may prove to be cost effective from other payers' perspectives. Expected net cost savings for Medicare would more than offset expected net costs for all other insurers.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach.

OBJECTIVE: To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. METHOD: We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. RESULTS: Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35-54years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. CONCLUSION: Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers' excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting.

Reducing childhood obesity through U.S. federal policy: a microsimulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity prevalence remains high in the U.S., especially among racial/ethnic minorities and low-income populations. Federal policy is important in improving public health given its broad reach. Information is needed about federal policies that could reduce childhood obesity rates and by how much. PURPOSE: To estimate the impact of three federal policies on childhood obesity prevalence in 2032, after 20 years of implementation. METHODS: Criteria were used to select the three following policies to reduce childhood obesity from 26 recommended policies: afterschool physical activity programs, a $0.01/ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise tax, and a ban on child-directed fast food TV advertising. For each policy, the literature was reviewed from January 2000 through July 2012 to find evidence of effectiveness and create average effect sizes. In 2012, a Markov microsimulation model estimated each policy's impact on diet or physical activity, and then BMI, in a simulated school-aged population in 2032. RESULTS: The microsimulation predicted that afterschool physical activity programs would reduce obesity the most among children aged 6-12 years (1.8 percentage points) and the advertising ban would reduce obesity the least (0.9 percentage points). The SSB excise tax would reduce obesity the most among adolescents aged 13-18 years (2.4 percentage points). All three policies would reduce obesity more among blacks and Hispanics than whites, with the SSB excise tax reducing obesity disparities the most. CONCLUSIONS: All three policies would reduce childhood obesity prevalence by 2032. However, a national $0.01/ounce SSB excise tax is the best option.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for KRAS and BRAF mutations in metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: In 2009, the American Society of Clinical Oncology recommended that patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who are candidates for anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapy have their tumors tested for KRAS mutations because tumors with such mutations do not respond to anti-EGFR therapy. Limiting anti-EGFR therapy to those without KRAS mutations will reserve treatment for those likely to benefit while avoiding unnecessary costs and harm to those who would not. Similarly, tumors with BRAF genetic mutations may not respond to anti-EGFR therapy, though this is less clear. Economic analyses of mutation testing have not fully explored the roles of alternative therapies and resection of metastases. METHODS: This paper is based on a decision analytic framework that forms the basis of a cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for KRAS and BRAF mutations in mCRC in the context of treatment with cetuximab. A cohort of 50 000 patients with mCRC is simulated 10 000 times, with attributes randomly assigned on the basis of distributions from randomized controlled trials. RESULTS: Screening for both KRAS and BRAF mutations compared with the base strategy (of no anti-EGFR therapy) increases expected overall survival by 0.034 years at a cost of $22 033, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of approximately $650 000 per additional year of life. Compared with anti-EGFR therapy without screening, adding KRAS testing saves approximately $7500 per patient; adding BRAF testing saves another $1023, with little reduction in expected survival. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for KRAS and BFAF mutation improves the cost-effectiveness of anti-EGFR therapy, but the incremental cost effectiveness ratio remains above the generally accepted threshold for acceptable cost effectiveness ratio of $100 000/quality adjusted life year.

Design and rationale for Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Case Management to Control Hypertension (HyperLink): a cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with high blood pressure (BP) visit a physician an average of 4 times or more per year in the U.S., yet BP is controlled in fewer than half. Practical, robust and sustainable models are needed to improve BP in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. OBJECTIVES: The Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Case Management to Control Hypertension study (HyperLink) is a cluster-randomized trial designed to determine whether an intervention that combines home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management improves BP control compared to usual care at 6 and 12 months in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. Secondary outcomes are maintenance of BP control at 18 months, patient satisfaction with their health care, and costs of care. METHODS: HyperLink enrolled 450 hypertensive patients with uncontrolled BP from 16 primary care clinics. Eight clinics were randomized to provide usual care (UC) to their patients (n=222) and 8 were randomized to provide the telemonitoring intervention (TI) (n=228). TI patients received home BP telemonitors that internally store and electronically transmit BP data to a secure database. Pharmacist case managers adjust antihypertensive therapy based on the home BP data under a collaborative practice agreement with the clinics' primary care teams. The length of the intervention is 12 months, with follow-up to 18 months to determine the durability of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: We will test in a real primary care setting whether combining BP telemonitoring and pharmacist case management can achieve and maintain high rates of BP control compared to usual care.

Greater use of preventive services in U.S. health care could save lives at little or no cost.

There is broad debate over whether preventive health services save money or represent a good investment. This paper analyzes the estimated cost of adopting a package of twenty proven preventive services--including tobacco cessation screening, alcohol abuse screening, and daily aspirin use--against the estimated savings that could be generated. We find that greater use of proven clinical preventive services in the United States could avert the loss of more than two million life-years annually. What's more, increasing the use of these services from current levels to 90 percent in 2006 would result in total savings of $3.7 billion, or 0.2 percent of U.S. personal health care spending. These findings suggest that policy makers should pursue options that move the nation toward greater use of proven preventive services.

Partnership research: a practical trial design for evaluation of a natural experiment to improve depression care.

BACKGROUND: Translational research is increasingly important as academic health centers transform themselves to meet new requirements of National Institutes of Health funding. Most attention has focused on T1 translation studies (bench to bedside) with considerable uncertainty about how to enhance T2 (effectiveness trials) and especially T3 (implementation studies). OBJECTIVE: To describe an innovative example of a T3 study, conducted as partnership research with the leaders of a major natural experiment in Minnesota to improve the primary care of depression. METHODS: All health plans in the state have agreed on a new payment model to support clinics that implement the well-evidenced collaborative care model for depression in the Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction initiative. The Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction study was developed in an ongoing partnership with the Initiative leaders from 7 health plans, 85 clinics, and a regional quality improvement collaborative to evaluate the implementation and its impacts on patients and other stakeholders. We agreed on a staggered implementation, multiple baseline research design, using the concepts of practical clinical trials and engaged scholarship and have collaborated on all aspects of conducting the study, including joint identification of patient and clinic survey recipients. RESULTS: Complex study methods have worked well through 20 months because of the commitment of all stakeholders to both the Initiative and the Study. Over 1500 subjects have been recruited from health plan information delivered weekly, and 99.7% of 316 physicians and administrators from all participating clinical organizations have completed the Study surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Partnership research can greatly facilitate translational research studies.