Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the rare genomes project.

BACKGROUND: A major obstacle faced by families with rare diseases is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years and causal variants are identified in under 50%, even when capturing variants genome-wide. To aid in the interpretation and prioritization of the vast number of variants detected, computational methods are proliferating. Knowing which tools are most effective remains unclear. To evaluate the performance of computational methods, and to encourage innovation in method development, we designed a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge to place variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. METHODS: We utilized genome sequencing (GS) data from families sequenced in the Rare Genomes Project (RGP), a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of GS for rare disease diagnosis and gene discovery. Challenge predictors were provided with a dataset of variant calls and phenotype terms from 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families with causal variants specified, and 30 unlabeled test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). We tasked teams to identify causal variants in as many families as possible. Predictors submitted variant predictions with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on the rank position of causal variants, and the maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across all EPCR values. RESULTS: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performers recalled causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families within the top 5 ranked variants. Newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two previously unsolved families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant in an unsolved proband with phenotypes consistent with asparagine synthetase deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Model methodology and performance was highly variable. Models weighing call quality, allele frequency, predicted deleteriousness, segregation, and phenotype were effective in identifying causal variants, and models open to phenotype expansion and non-coding variants were able to capture more difficult diagnoses and discover new diagnoses. Overall, computational models can significantly aid variant prioritization. For use in diagnostics, detailed review and conservative assessment of prioritized variants against established criteria is needed.

In silico trial for the assessment of givinostat dose adjustment rules based on the management of key hematological parameters in polycythemia vera patients.

Polycythemia vera (PV) is a chronic myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by excessive levels of platelets (PLT), white blood cells (WBC), and hematocrit (HCT). Givinostat (ITF2357) is a potent histone-deacetylase inhibitor that showed a good safety/efficacy profile in PV patients during phase I/II studies. A phase III clinical trial had been planned and an adaptive dosing protocol had been proposed where givinostat dose is iteratively adjusted every 28 days (one cycle) based on PLT, WBC, and HCT. As support, a simulation platform to evaluate and refine the proposed givinostat dose adjustment rules was developed. A population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model predicting the givinostat effects on PLT, WBC, and HCT in PV patients was developed and integrated with a control algorithm implementing the adaptive dosing protocol. Ten in silico trials in ten virtual PV patient populations were simulated 500 times. Considering an eight-treatment cycle horizon, reducing/increasing the givinostat daily dose by 25 mg/day step resulted in a higher percentage of patients with a complete hematological response (CHR), that is, PLT ≤400 × 109 /L, WBC ≤10 × 109 /L, and HCT < 45% without phlebotomies in the last three cycles, and a lower percentage of patients with grade II toxicity events compared with 50 mg/day adjustment steps. After the eighth cycle, 85% of patients were predicted to receive a dose ≥100 mg/day and 40.90% (95% prediction interval = [34, 48.05]) to show a CHR. These results were confirmed at the end of 12th, 18th, and 24th cycles, showing a stability of the response between the eighth and 24th cycles.

Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the Rare Genomes Project.

Background: A major obstacle faced by rare disease families is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years, and causal variants are identified in under 50%. The Rare Genomes Project (RGP) is a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of genome sequencing (GS) for diagnosis and gene discovery. Families are consented for sharing of sequence and phenotype data with researchers, allowing development of a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge, placing variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. Methods: Predictors were provided a dataset of phenotype terms and variant calls from GS of 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families, with causal variants specified, and 30 test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). The challenge tasked teams with identifying the causal variants in as many test set families as possible. Ranked variant predictions were submitted with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on rank position of true positive causal variants and maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across EPCR thresholds. Results: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performing teams recalled the causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families by prioritizing high quality variant calls that were rare, predicted deleterious, segregating correctly, and consistent with reported phenotype. In unsolved families, newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two prioritized novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant, in an unsolved proband with phenotype overlap with asparagine synthetase deficiency. Conclusions: By objective assessment of variant predictions, we provide insights into current state-of-the-art algorithms and platforms for genome sequencing analysis for rare disease diagnosis and explore areas for future optimization. Identification of diagnostic variants in unsolved families promotes synergy between researchers with clinical and computational expertise as a means of advancing the field of clinical genome interpretation.

A two-stages global sensitivity analysis by using the δ sensitivity index in presence of correlated inputs: application on a tumor growth inhibition model based on the dynamic energy budget theory.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) evaluates the impact of variability and/or uncertainty of the model parameters on given model outputs. GSA is useful for assessing the quality of Pharmacometric model inference. Indeed, model parameters can be affected by high (estimation) uncertainty due to the sparsity of data. Independence between model parameters is a common assumption of GSA methods. However, ignoring (known) correlations between parameters may alter model predictions and, then, GSA results. To address this issue, a novel two-stages GSA technique based on the δ index, which is well-defined also in presence of correlated parameters, is here proposed. In the first step, statistical dependencies are neglected to identify parameters exerting causal effects. Correlations are introduced in the second step to consider the real distribution of the model output and investigate also the 'indirect' effects due to the correlation structure. The proposed two-stages GSA strategy was applied, as case study, to a preclinical tumor-in-host-growth inhibition model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the model parameter estimate uncertainty (including correlations) on key model-derived metrics: the drug threshold concentration for tumor eradication, the tumor volume doubling time and a new index evaluating the drug efficacy-toxicity trade-off. This approach allowed to rank parameters according to their impact on the output, discerning whether a parameter mainly exerts a causal or 'indirect' effect. Thus, it was possible to identify uncertainties that should be necessarily reduced to obtain robust predictions for the outputs of interest.

Replacement, Reduction, and Refinement of Animal Experiments in Anticancer Drug Development: The Contribution of 3D In Vitro Cancer Models in the Drug Efficacy Assessment.

In the last decades three-dimensional (3D) in vitro cancer models have been proposed as a bridge between bidimensional (2D) cell cultures and in vivo animal models, the gold standards in the preclinical assessment of anticancer drug efficacy. 3D in vitro cancer models can be generated through a multitude of techniques, from both immortalized cancer cell lines and primary patient-derived tumor tissue. Among them, spheroids and organoids represent the most versatile and promising models, as they faithfully recapitulate the complexity and heterogeneity of human cancers. Although their recent applications include drug screening programs and personalized medicine, 3D in vitro cancer models have not yet been established as preclinical tools for studying anticancer drug efficacy and supporting preclinical-to-clinical translation, which remains mainly based on animal experimentation. In this review, we describe the state-of-the-art of 3D in vitro cancer models for the efficacy evaluation of anticancer agents, focusing on their potential contribution to replace, reduce and refine animal experimentations, highlighting their strength and weakness, and discussing possible perspectives to overcome current challenges.

Clinical practice gaps and challenges in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis care: An international physician needs assessment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Even as several pharmacological treatments for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are in development, the incidence of NASH is increasing on an international scale. We aim to assess clinical practice gaps and challenges of hepatologists and endocrinologists when managing patients with NASH in four countries (Germany/Italy/United Kingdom/United States) to inform educational interventions. METHODS: A sequential mixed-method design was used: qualitative semi-structured interviews followed by quantitative online surveys. Participants were hepatologists and endocrinologists practising in one of the targeted countries. Interview data underwent thematic analysis and survey data were analysed with chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests. RESULTS: Most interviewees (n = 24) and surveyed participants (89% of n = 224) agreed that primary care must be involved in screening for NASH, yet many faced challenges involving and collaborating with them. Endocrinologists reported low knowledge of which blood markers to use when suspecting NASH (56%), when to order an MRI (65%) or ultrasound/FibroScan® (46%), and reported sub-optimal skills interpreting alanine aminotransferase (ALT, 37%) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST, 38%) blood marker test results, causing difficulty during diagnosis. Participants believed that more evidence is needed for upcoming therapeutic agents; yet, they reported sub-optimal knowledge of eligibility criteria for clinical trials. Knowledge and skill gaps when managing comorbidities, as well as skill gaps facilitating patient lifestyle changes were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Educational interventions are needed to address the knowledge and skill gaps identified and to develop strategies to optimize patient care, which include implementing relevant care pathways, encouraging referrals and testing, and multidisciplinary collaboration, as suggested by the recent Global Consensus statement on NAFLD.

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) based modeling framework to describe tumor-in-host growth inhibition and cachexia onset during anticancer treatment in in vivo xenograft studies.

Cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome (CACS) is a very severe complication of cancer for which an adequate therapeutic strategy has not yet been defined. Recently, a notable number of new animal models of human CACS has been made available for translational purposes. Under the assumption that tumor-induced adaptations of host metabolism and tumor-host energetic competition play a major role in CACS (together with possible toxicities induced by the anticancer treatment), we developed a new Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB)-based framework, modeling tumor-in-host growth dynamics and cachexia onset in preclinical animal models during anticancer treatments. The tumor-in-host modeling approach was successfully applied on a multitude of in vivo preclinical studies involving different host species, tumor cell lines, type of anticancer agents and experimental settings among which standard xenograft studies. Obtained results strongly suggested the adoption of the tumor-in-host DEB-based approach in the preclinical oncological setting for a joint assessment of drug efficacy and toxicity and for a better design of the experiments. Further applications of the DEB-based approach to the context of poly-targeted combination therapy, anti-cachectic treatments and preclinical to clinical translation are under investigation with extremely encouraging preliminary results.

Perspective: Improving Nutritional Guidelines for Sustainable Health Policies: Current Status and Perspectives.

A large body of evidence supports the notion that incorrect or insufficient nutrition contributes to disease development. A pivotal goal is thus to understand what exactly is appropriate and what is inappropriate in food ingestion and the consequent nutritional status and health. The effective application of these concepts requires the translation of scientific information into practical approaches that have a tangible and measurable impact at both individual and population levels. The agenda for the future is expected to support available methodology in nutrition research to personalize guideline recommendations, properly grading the quality of the available evidence, promoting adherence to the well-established evidence hierarchy in nutrition, and enhancing strategies for appropriate vetting and transparent reporting that will solidify the recommendations for health promotion. The final goal is to build a constructive coalition among scientists, policy makers, and communication professionals for sustainable health and nutritional policies. Currently, a strong rationale and available data support a personalized dietary approach according to personal variables, including sex and age, circulating metabolic biomarkers, food quality and intake frequency, lifestyle variables such as physical activity, and environmental variables including one's microbiome profile. There is a strong and urgent need to develop a successful commitment among all the stakeholders to define novel and sustainable approaches toward the management of the health value of nutrition at individual and population levels. Moving forward requires adherence to well-established principles of evidence evaluation as well as identification of effective tools to obtain better quality evidence. Much remains to be done in the near future.

BDNF Serum Levels with Respect to Multidimensional Assessment in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The clinical presentation of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by high heterogeneity, the greatest part of which still remains unexplained. OBJECTIVE: To assess serum levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in ALS patients, implementing a multidimensional characterization focused on four a priori chosen elements of phenotypic variability: ALS bulbar/spinal subtype, cognitive impairment, mood dysfunction and disease progression speed. METHODS: Serum samples were obtained from 45 ALS outpatients (16% bulbar onset) and 22 healthy controls. Each patient underwent the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and disease progression speed was estimated by calculating the decay of the ALSFRS-R score over time. RESULTS: BDNF serum levels did not differ between patients and controls, although ∼25% lower levels characterized those patients carrying a depressive trait. Finally, BDNF serum levels were significantly lower in ALS patients expressing lower ALSFRS-R scores (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). No differences were found when considering cognitive impairment, disease progression speed and site of onset. CONCLUSION: BDNF serum levels might mark and possibly contribute in part to ALS phenotypic variability.

Temporal data mining for the quality assessment of hemodialysis services.

OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the temporal data mining aspects of a research project that deals with the definition of methods and tools for the assessment of the clinical performance of hemodialysis (HD) services, on the basis of the time series automatically collected during hemodialysis sessions. METHODS: Intelligent data analysis and temporal data mining techniques are applied to gain insight and to discover knowledge on the causes of unsatisfactory clinical results. In particular, two new methods for association rule discovery and temporal rule discovery are applied to the time series. Such methods exploit several pre-processing techniques, comprising data reduction, multi-scale filtering and temporal abstractions. RESULTS: We have analyzed the data of more than 5800 dialysis sessions coming from 43 different patients monitored for 19 months. The qualitative rules associating the outcome parameters and the measured variables were examined by the domain experts, which were able to distinguish between rules confirming available background knowledge and unexpected but plausible rules. CONCLUSION: The new methods proposed in the paper are suitable tools for knowledge discovery in clinical time series. Their use in the context of an auditing system for dialysis management helped clinicians to improve their understanding of the patients' behavior.

Free and bound plasma leptin in normal weight and obese men and women: relationship with body composition, resting energy expenditure, insulin-sensitivity, lipid profile and macronutrient preference.

OBJECTIVE: The adipose-borne hormone leptin circulates in free and protein-bound forms but little information is available about their biological significance. Free leptin (FL) levels are related to changes in fat mass, whereas bound leptin (BL) appears to be associated with resting energy expenditure (REE). Our aim was to assess FL and BL levels in normal weight and obese subjects and correlate them with metabolic and nutritional variables. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: The partitioning of plasma leptin between FL and BL was evaluated in a population (n = 44) including both genders and different degrees of adiposity [body mass index (BMI) range 18.6-79.6 kg/m2]. MEASUREMENTS: Total leptin and FL and BL concentrations were measured by fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) followed by radioimmunoassay (RIA). Body composition, REE, insulin sensitivity, lipid parameters associated with cardiovascular risk and macronutrient preference were also assessed. RESULTS: The BL/FL ratio was significantly reduced in obese subjects due to a major increase in FL compared with BL. Consequently, the gender difference of the %BL/%FL ratio present in lean subjects (35/65 in women; 65/35 in men) was lost in obese subjects. REE was negatively correlated with total leptin (P < 0.0001) and %FL (P < 0.0001), and positively with %BL (P < 0.001). Total leptin and FL were correlated with the diet carbohydrate content in all subjects. CONCLUSIONS: FL increases with the amount of fat mass; the prevalence of FL in normal weight women in comparison to men suggests that this fraction is particularly linked to the amount of subcutaneous fat. Moreover, the correlation of BL with REE and the relationship of FL with food intake favours the view of different biological activities for the two circulating forms of leptin.

Predictive pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of tumor growth kinetics in xenograft models after administration of anticancer agents.

The available mathematical models describing tumor growth and the effect of anticancer treatments on tumors in animals are of limited use within the drug industry. A simple and effective model would allow applying quantitative thinking to the preclinical development of oncology drugs. In this article, a minimal pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model is presented, based on a system of ordinary differential equations that link the dosing regimen of a compound to the tumor growth in animal models. The growth of tumors in nontreated animals is described by an exponential growth followed by a linear growth. In treated animals, the tumor growth rate is decreased by a factor proportional to both drug concentration and number of proliferating tumor cells. A transit compartmental system is used to model the process of cell death, which occurs at later times. The parameters of the pharmacodynamic model are related to the growth characteristics of the tumor, to the drug potency, and to the kinetics of the tumor cell death. Therefore, such parameters can be used for ranking compounds based on their potency and for evaluating potential differences in the tumor cell death process. The model was extensively tested on discovery candidates and known anticancer drugs. It fitted well the experimental data, providing reliable parameter estimates. On the basis of the parameters estimated in a first experiment, the model successfully predicted the response of tumors exposed to drugs given at different dose levels and/or schedules. It is, thus, possible to use the model prospectively, optimizing the design of new experiments.

Analysing Italian voluntary abortion data using a Bayesian approach to the time series decomposition.

After the approval of the law on voluntary abortion in Italy, the Italian health care system started to practice voluntary abortion before the third month of pregnancy. Since 1980, the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) has collected data on the abortion frequency per month and per administrative local areas. Although a preliminary analysis of the data showed that, after an initial increase, the number of abortions progressively lowered over years, there is no insight on the existence of periodicity in the time series and on the local effects related to the regional habits and social environments. The aim of our study is therefore to extract local trends and periodicity from the data collected by ISTAT, by combining a 'structural model' of the time series and Bayesian statistics. This paper describes both the adopted stochastic model and its Bayesian estimation through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach on the Italian abortion data. Abortion data are analysed both at national level and in each of the 95 Italian local areas. At the national level this analysis allows extraction of a trend component that clearly shows that the voluntary abortion trend has decreased constantly since June-July 1983 until the end of the study. The periodic component shows an astonishing regularity too, suggesting that the Italian people have a seasonal preference for voluntary abortion. In particular, abortions are concentrated in the central part of the year (April-August). Finally, at the local level this analysis allows us to find similarities/differences between different areas in trends and/or in seasonal preferences.