Hospital utilization rates for influenza and RSV: a novel approach and critical assessment.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) contribute significantly to the burden of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) inpatient care, but heterogeneous coding practices and availability of inpatient data make it difficult to estimate global hospital utilization for either disease based on coded diagnoses alone. METHODS: This study estimates rates of influenza and RSV hospitalization by calculating the proportion of ALRI due to influenza and RSV and applying this proportion to inpatient admissions with ALRI coded as primary diagnosis. Proportions of ALRI attributed to influenza and RSV were extracted from a meta-analysis of 360 total sources describing inpatient hospital admissions which were input to a Bayesian mixed effects model over age with random effects over location. Results of this model were applied to inpatient admission datasets for 44 countries to produce rates of hospital utilization for influenza and RSV respectively, and rates were compared to raw coded admissions for each disease. RESULTS: For most age groups, these methods estimated a higher national admission rate than the rate of directly coded influenza or RSV admissions in the same inpatient sources. In many inpatient sources, International Classification of Disease (ICD) coding detail was insufficient to estimate RSV burden directly. The influenza inpatient burden estimates in older adults appear to be substantially underestimated using this method on primary diagnoses alone. Application of the mixed effects model reduced heterogeneity between countries in influenza and RSV which was biased by coding practices and between-country variation. CONCLUSIONS: This new method presents the opportunity of estimating hospital utilization rates for influenza and RSV using a wide range of clinical databases. Estimates generally seem promising for influenza and RSV associated hospitalization, but influenza estimates from primary diagnosis seem highly underestimated among older adults. Considerable heterogeneity remains between countries in ALRI coding (i.e., primary vs non-primary cause), and in the age profile of proportion positive for influenza and RSV across studies. While this analysis is interesting because of its wide data utilization and applicability in locations without laboratory-confirmed admission data, understanding the sources of variability and data quality will be essential in future applications of these methods.

National burden estimates of hospitalisations for acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2019 among 58 countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant viral pathogen associated with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in children who are younger than 5 years. Little is reported on the national estimates of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in these children on the basis of robust epidemiological data. We aimed to generate national level estimates for RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in children aged younger than 5 years. METHODS: We included data for RSV and ALRI hospitalisation in children who were younger than 5 years from systematic literature reviews (including unpublished data) and from inpatient databases, representing 58 countries. We used two different methods, the rate-based method and the proportion-based method, to estimate national RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in children younger than 5 years in 2019. The rate-based method synthesised data for laboratory-confirmed RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rates using a spatiotemporal Gaussian process meta-regression (ST-GPR). The proportion-based method applied data for RSV positive proportions among ALRI to all-cause ALRI hospitalisation envelopes (ie, total disease burden of ALRI hospitalisations of any cause) using a Bayesian regularised trimmed meta-regression (MR-BRT). Where applicable, we reported estimates by both methods to provide a plausible range for each country. FINDINGS: A total of 334 studies and 1985 data points (defined as an individual estimate for one age group and 1 year for each study) were included in our analysis, accounting for 398 million (59%) of the 677 million children aged younger than 5 years worldwide representing 58 countries. We reported the number of annual national RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations for 29 countries using the rate-based method, and for 42 countries using the proportion-based method. The median number of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in children younger than 5 years was 8·25 thousand (IQR 1·97-48·01), and the median rate of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations was 514 (339-866) hospitalisations per thousand children younger than 5 years. Despite large variation among countries, a high proportion of the RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations were in infants aged younger than 1 year in all countries (median proportion 45%, IQR 32-56). In 272 (76%) of the 358 years included in the analysis, the RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rate fluctuated between 0·8 and 1·2 times the country's median yearly rate. General agreement was observed between estimates by the rate-based method and proportion-based method, with the exceptions of India, Kenya, Norway, and Philippines. INTERPRETATION: By incorporating data from various sources, our study provides robust estimates on national level burden of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation in children aged younger than 5 years. These estimates are important for informing policy for the introduction of RSV immunisations and also serve as baseline data for the RSV disease burden in young children. FUNDING: The Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology.

The burden of clostridium difficile infection: estimates of the incidence of CDI from U.S. Administrative databases.

BACKGROUND: Many administrative data sources are available to study the epidemiology of infectious diseases, including Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), but few publications have compared CDI event rates across databases using similar methodology. We used comparable methods with multiple administrative databases to compare the incidence of CDI in older and younger persons in the United States. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using three longitudinal data sources (Medicare, OptumInsight LabRx, and Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database (SID)), and two hospital encounter-level data sources (Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Premier Perspective database) to identify CDI in adults aged 18 and older with calculation of CDI incidence rates/100,000 person-years of observation (pyo) and CDI categorization (onset and association). RESULTS: The incidence of CDI ranged from 66/100,000 in persons under 65 years (LabRx), 383/100,000 in elderly persons (SID), and 677/100,000 in elderly persons (Medicare). Ninety percent of CDI episodes in the LabRx population were characterized as community-onset compared to 41 % in the Medicare population. The majority of CDI episodes in the Medicare and LabRx databases were identified based on only a CDI diagnosis, whereas almost ¾ of encounters coded for CDI in the Premier hospital data were confirmed with a positive test result plus treatment with metronidazole or oral vancomycin. Using only the Medicare inpatient data to calculate encounter-level CDI events resulted in 553 CDI events/100,000 persons, virtually the same as the encounter proportion calculated using the NIS (544/100,000 persons). CONCLUSIONS: We found that the incidence of CDI was 35 % higher in the Medicare data and fewer episodes were attributed to hospital acquisition when all medical claims were used to identify CDI, compared to only inpatient data lacking information on diagnosis and treatment in the outpatient setting. The incidence of CDI was 10-fold lower and the proportion of community-onset CDI was much higher in the privately insured younger LabRx population compared to the elderly Medicare population. The methods we developed to identify incident CDI can be used by other investigators to study the incidence of other infectious diseases and adverse events using large generalizable administrative datasets.

Identification of Medicare Recipients at Highest Risk for Clostridium difficile Infection in the US by Population Attributable Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Population attributable risk percent (PAR%) is an epidemiological tool that provides an estimate of the percent reduction in total disease burden if that disease could be entirely eliminated among a subpopulation. As such, PAR% is used to efficiently target prevention interventions. Due to significant limitations in current Clostridium difficile Infection (CDI) prevention practices and the development of new approaches to prevent CDI, such as vaccination, we determined the PAR% for CDI in various subpopulations in the Medicare 5% random sample. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using the 2009 Medicare 5% random sample. Comorbidities, infections, and healthcare exposures during the 12 months prior to CDI were identified. CDI incidence and PAR% were calculated for each condition/exposure. Easy to identify subpopulations that could be targeted from prevention interventions were identified based on PAR%. FINDINGS: There were 1,465,927 Medicare beneficiaries with 9,401 CDI cases for an incidence of 677/100,000 persons. Subpopulations representing less than 15% of the entire population and with a PAR% ≥ 30% were identified. These included deficiency anemia (PAR% = 37.9%), congestive heart failure (PAR% = 30.2%), fluid and electrolyte disorders (PAR% = 29.6%), urinary tract infections (PAR% = 40.5%), pneumonia (PAR% = 35.2%), emergent hospitalization (PAR% = 48.5%) and invasive procedures (PAR% = 38.9%). Stratification by age and hospital exposures indicates hospital exposures are more strongly associated with CDI than age. SIGNIFICANCE: Small and identifiable subpopulations that account for relatively large proportions of CDI cases in the elderly were identified. These data can be used to target specific subpopulations for CDI prevention interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical-cancer screening in five developing countries.

BACKGROUND: Cervical-cancer screening strategies that involve the use of conventional cytology and require multiple visits have been impractical in developing countries. METHODS: We used computer-based models to assess the cost-effectiveness of a variety of cervical-cancer screening strategies in India, Kenya, Peru, South Africa, and Thailand. Primary data were combined with data from the literature to estimate age-specific incidence and mortality rates for cancer and the effectiveness of screening for and treatment of precancerous lesions. We assessed the direct medical, time, and program-related costs of strategies that differed according to screening test, targeted age and frequency, and number of clinic visits required. Single-visit strategies involved the assumption that screening and treatment could be provided in the same day. Outcomes included the lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved, lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per year of life saved). RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategies were those that required the fewest visits, resulting in improved follow-up testing and treatment. Screening women once in their lifetime, at the age of 35 years, with a one-visit or two-visit screening strategy involving visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid or DNA testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) in cervical cell samples, reduced the lifetime risk of cancer by approximately 25 to 36 percent, and cost less than 500 dollars per year of life saved. Relative cancer risk declined by an additional 40 percent with two screenings (at 35 and 40 years of age), resulting in a cost per year of life saved that was less than each country's per capita gross domestic product--a very cost-effective result, according to the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical-cancer screening strategies incorporating visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid or DNA testing for HPV in one or two clinical visits are cost-effective alternatives to conventional three-visit cytology-based screening programs in resource-poor settings.

Screening for cervical cancer in India: How much will it cost? A trial based analysis of the cost per case detected.

The cost and cost effectiveness of screening previously unscreened women by VIA, cytology or HPV testing was investigated within a large cluster randomised trial involving 131,178 women in rural India. All resources involved in implementation, training, management, recruitment, screening and diagnosis were identified and costed. We estimated the total costs and detection rates for each cluster and used these data to calculate an average cluster cost and detection rate for each screening approach. These estimates were combined to estimate a cost per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 or invasive cancer (CIN 2/3+) detected. The average total costs per 1,000 women eligible for screening were US dollar 3,917, US dollar 6,609 and US dollar 11,779 with VIA, cytology and HPV respectively. The cost of detecting a case of CIN2/3+ using VIA was dollar 522 (95% CI dollar 429- dollar 652). Our results suggest that more CIN2/3+ cases would be detected in the same population if cytology were used instead of VIA and each additional case would cost US dollar 1065 (95% CI dollar 713- dollar2175). Delivering cervical cancer screening is potentially expensive in a low-income country although costs might be lower outside a trial setting. We found screening with VIA to be the least expensive option, but it also detected fewer cases of CIN2/3+ than other methods; its long-term cost-effectiveness will depend on the long-term benefits of early detection. Cytology was more effective at detecting cases than VIA but was also more expensive. Our findings indicate that HPV may not be a cost effective screening strategy in India at current consumable prices.

A cluster randomized controlled trial of visual, cytology and human papillomavirus screening for cancer of the cervix in rural India.

The impact of screening by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology or HPV testing on cervical cancer incidence and mortality is investigated in a cluster randomized controlled trial in India. We report findings after the screening phase, when 52 clusters, with a total of 142,701 women aged 30-59 years in Osmanabad District, India, were randomized into 4 arms for a single round of screening by trained midwives with either VIA, cytology or HPV testing as well as a control group. All laboratory tests were done locally. Test-positive women underwent investigations (colposcopy/biopsy) and treatment in the base hospital. Data on participation, test positivity, positive predictive value and detection rates of cervical neoplasia were analyzed using cluster design methodology. Of the eligible women, 72-74% were screened. Test positivity rates were 14.0% for VIA, 7.0% for cytology and 10.3% for HPV. The detection rate of high-grade lesions was similar in all intervention arms (0.7% for VIA, 1.0% for cytology and 0.9% for HPV testing) (p = 0.06, Mann-Whitney test). While the detection rate for VIA dropped to 0.5% with declining test positivity during the course of the study, it remained constant for cytology and HPV testing. Over 85% of women with high-grade lesions received treatment. Our results show that a high level of participation and good-quality cytology can be achieved in low-resource settings. VIA is a useful alternative but requires careful monitoring. Detection rates obtained by HPV testing were similar to cytology, despite higher investments.