Comparative assessment of viral dynamic models for SARS-CoV-2 for pharmacodynamic assessment in early treatment trials.

Pharmacometric analyses of time series viral load data may detect drug effects with greater power than approaches using single time points. Because SARS-CoV-2 viral load rapidly rises and then falls, viral dynamic models have been used. We compared different modelling approaches when analysing Phase II-type viral dynamic data. Using two SARS-CoV-2 datasets of viral load starting within 7 days of symptoms, we fitted the slope-intercept exponential decay (SI), reduced target cell limited (rTCL), target cell limited (TCL) and TCL with eclipse phase (TCLE) models using nlmixr. Model performance was assessed via Bayesian information criterion (BIC), visual predictive checks (VPCs), goodness-of-fit plots, and parameter precision. The most complex (TCLE) model had the highest BIC for both datasets. The estimated viral decline rate was similar for all models except the TCL model for dataset A with a higher rate (median [range] day-1 : dataset A; 0.63 [0.56-1.84]; dataset B: 0.81 [0.74-0.85]). Our findings suggest simple models should be considered during pharmacodynamic model development.

Assessment of the Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis HScore in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

The clinical manifestation of moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has parallels to secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) both clinically and based on molecular inflammatory response. We found no evidence to support the utility of risk-stratifying COVID-19 patients using risk scoring methodology designed for HLH.

ChAd63-MVA-vectored blood-stage malaria vaccines targeting MSP1 and AMA1: assessment of efficacy against mosquito bite challenge in humans.

The induction of cellular immunity, in conjunction with antibodies, may be essential for vaccines to protect against blood-stage infection with the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We have shown that prime-boost delivery of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens by chimpanzee adenovirus 63 (ChAd63) followed by the attenuated orthopoxvirus MVA is safe and immunogenic in healthy adults. Here, we report on vaccine efficacy against controlled human malaria infection delivered by mosquito bites. The blood-stage malaria vaccines were administered alone, or together (MSP1+AMA1), or with a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine candidate (MSP1+ME-TRAP). In this first human use of coadministered ChAd63-MVA regimes, we demonstrate immune interference whereby responses against merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1) are dominant over apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) and ME-TRAP. We also show that induction of strong cellular immunity against MSP1 and AMA1 is safe, but does not impact on parasite growth rates in the blood. In a subset of vaccinated volunteers, a delay in time to diagnosis was observed and sterilizing protection was observed in one volunteer coimmunized with MSP1+AMA1-results consistent with vaccine-induced pre-erythrocytic, rather than blood-stage, immunity. These data call into question the utility of T cell-inducing blood-stage malaria vaccines and suggest that the focus should remain on high-titer antibody induction against susceptible antigen targets.