Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.

BACKGROUND: Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP. METHODS: Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned. RESULTS: 43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

Assessment of Overweight, Obesity, Central Obesity, and Type 2 Diabetes among Adolescents in Qatar: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Qatar has a high obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden. This study aimed to (1) determine the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and T2DM in 13-17-year-old adolescents and (2) evaluate associations with adolescents' lifestyle and breastfeeding history, parental weight, and familial T2DM history. A cross-sectional study (double-stage cluster sampling) was conducted in 2018-2020 using a self-administered parental and adolescent questionnaire. In the results, 23.4% of the adolescents (107/459) were overweight; 19.9% (91/459) were obese; and 37.6% (171/459) had evidence of central obesity. Random blood sugar (RBS) was suggestive of prediabetes (≥140 mg/dL) for 23 (5.0%) adolescents and T2DM (≥200 mg/dL) for none. In multivariable analysis, obesity was significantly associated with no breastfeeding (OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.09-9.26) compared to breastfed adolescents for ≥6 months, with first-degree family history of T2DM (OR = 2.27; 95% CI: 1.22-4.27), with maternal obesity (OR = 2.40; 95% CI: 1.01-5.70), and with acanthosis nigricans in adolescents (OR = 19.8; 95% CI: 8.38-46.9). Central obesity was significantly associated with maternal obesity (OR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.14-4.27) and with acanthosis nigricans (OR = 3.67; 95% CI: 1.88-7.18). Acanthosis nigricans (OR = 4.06; 95% CI: 1.41-11.7) was the only factor associated with elevated RBS. Addressing future disease burden among adults in Qatar will require extensive health and well-being programs, focused on healthy lifestyles and behaviors such as nutritious diets, physical activity, stress management, and self-care.

Maternal mortality in the Middle East and North Africa region - how could countries move towards obstetric transition stage 5?

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region decreased significantly between 1990 and 2017. This was uneven, however, with some countries faring much better than others. METHODS: We undertook a trend analysis of Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMRs) of countries in the region in order to understand differences in reduction across countries. Data were extracted from several databases for 23 countries and territories in the region on measures of women's empowerment, availability of vehicles and human resources for health (as a proxy to the three delays model). We identified factors associated with MMR by grouping countries into five different Stages (I-V) of obstetric transition from high to low MMRs. RESULTS: Among the four Stage II countries, MMR is associated with "antenatal care coverage (% with at least one visit)" and "medical doctors per 10,000 population". Among the eight Stage III countries, MMR is associated with "Gender Parity Index in primary and secondary level school enrolment" and with "nursing and midwifery personnel per 10,000 population". Among the 10 countries and one territory in Stages IV and V, MMR is associated with "GDP per capita", "nursing and midwifery personnel", and "motor vehicle ownership/motorization rate". Two factors were associated with changes in MMR from the period 2006-2010 to 2011-2015: 1) change in adolescent birth rate (r = 0.90, p = 0.005) and 2) Gender Parity Index in primary level school enrolment (r = - 0.51, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Though impressive reductions in MMR have been achieved across countries in the MENA region since 1990, governments should realize that there exists an opportunity to learn from each other to bring MMRs as close to zero as possible. Immediate steps in the right direction would include investment in human resources for health, particularly nurses and midwives; measures to improve adolescent sexual and reproductive health; and greater investments in achieving gender equity in education.

Influence of Age on 2040 Cancer Burden in the Older Population of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Public Health Implications.

INTRODUCTION AND STUDY AIMS: The underlying population of global regions varies widely and is a major determinant of regional cancer differences. The aims were to: (1) estimate the cancer burden in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in 2040 for the ≥70 population and (2) assess the public health implications for this cancer increase. METHODS: We used Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) estimates of cancer incidence and mortality for people aged 70 years or more in GCC countries from 2018 to 2040 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. For population growth, we used data for the same period from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. From these, we calculated the predicted increase in the number of cancer cases and cancer deaths from 2018 to 2040 and the proportion of cases/deaths represented by those aged 70+ for the 2 time periods. FINDINGS: In the GCC countries, the predicted number of newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths in the older population will increase by 465% and 462% respectively due to demographic changes-greater than other countries in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region, or in countries of similar economic development. The largest predicted increases will be for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Based on the predicted population age, cancer burden among older people in the GCC countries will increase by approximately 460%. CONCLUSION: By the year 2040, the relationship between cancer and age will cause a 4- to 5-fold increase in the cancer burden in the GCC. These predictable changes will require additional planning and resources to provide appropriate healthcare.

The state of population health research performance in the Middle East and North Africa: a meta-research study.

BACKGROUND: Population health (PH) research capacity and performance are essential pillars of evidence-based practice to help address health inequalities. Best evidence is provided by systematic reviews (SRs). None of the published bibliometric analysis specifically assess the production of SRs on PH in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The aim of our study is to investigate publication patterns and time trends of SRs reporting PH in the MENA region to evaluate the state of PH research performance in the region. METHOD: The study protocol was developed a priori (protocol registration number: CRD42017076736). PubMed was searched. Two independent reviewers screened 5747 identified articles. We investigated author affiliation and collaboration, yearly citations of the SRs and journal information. Joinpoint regression was used to explore these characteristics overtime. RESULTS: Our meta-research included 387 SRs published between 2008 and 2016 which reported data on PH in 20 MENA countries. Publication of SRs increased over time in journals with impact factor < 4 and in the categories of yearly number of citations < 50 (p values ≤ 0.0024). Authors belonging to the region published increasingly (p value = 0.0001) over time. Thirty percent of the SRs were from authors solely from the region, while an additional 30% were from the region collaborating with Western country authors. Of these collaborative reviews, 79% were led by authors from the region. However, collaboration in the region (with the exclusion of collaboration with Western country authors) was rare (0.8%). These authors from the region published more in open-access journals while authors from Western countries collaborating or not with authors from the region published more in hybrid or non-open-access journals (p value < 0.0001). Collaboration between authors from MENA and Western countries led to published SRs in journals with impact factor ≥ 10. Systematic reviews with global coverage were published more by authors from Western countries, while SRs with country-level coverage were published by authors from the region (p value < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The incremental trend of PH SR publications on MENA likely reflects the ongoing improvement in research performance in the region. Authors from the region appear to be taking a lead role in conducting and disseminating MENA PH research. Open-access journals are a major contributor in facilitating MENA research dissemination. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number CRD42017076736.

An innovative approach to identify past exposure to asbestos integrating questionnaire information and administrative data.

Reconstruction of work history of subjects exposed to occupational carcinogens might be extremely challenging and provide unreliable results. This study, carried out in Italy from February to November 2014, aimed to explore the validity of an innovative approach to reconstruct the occupational history of workers who have previously been exposed to asbestos combining the administration of structured questionnaire with the use of administrative data. Subjects recruited in this study were enrolled in the cohorts of COSMOS 1 and 2 studies. Participants indicating an exposure to asbestos were contacted and a structured questionnaire was administered to them to verify the validity of the self-reported asbestos exposure. Subsequently, work histories of respondents were investigated using administrative information. The record linkage with social security archives allowed the reassembling of the complete work history of 487 participants. In detail, administrative files allow the retrieval of 98 % of workers declaring not to be exposed, versus 77 % using the questionnaire. Furthermore, the percentage of retrieved cases is not relevant for high risk sectors but it is almost double for industries with probable presence of asbestos. The combined and integrated use of structured questionnaire with administrative data proved effective in accurately identifying subjects who actually had an asbestos exposure. This innovative strategy, being cost-effective and easily adaptable to other carcinogens, could be particularly useful in selecting subjects to recruit in specific screening and control programs for the early diagnosis of occupational cancers.

Oral health behavior and factors associated with poor oral status in Qatar: results from a national health survey.

OBJECTIVES: Oral health is a crucial determinant of quality of life. We aimed to determine oral health condition and factors associated with poor oral status in the adult national population of Qatar. METHODS: We used data from the World Health Organization supported STEPS (STEPwise approach to Surveillance) Survey conducted by the Supreme Council of Health, Qatar in 2012. A total of 2,496 Qataris (1,053 men, 1,443 women) answered the national survey. The Rao-Scott Chi-Square test was used to analyze oral health characteristics and multinomial logistic regression to assess risk factors. RESULTS: The self-perceived oral status of approximately 40 percent of respondents was either "average" or "poor" rather than "good." Poor oral status was more often reported by women (OR = 1.93; 95%CI = 1.30-2.80), by older (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.59-7.19) and less educated respondents (OR = 3.58; 95%CI = 2.15-5.96). Other risk groups included people with diabetes (OR = 1.87; 95%CI = 1.24-2.81), smokeless tobacco users (OR = 3.90; 95%CI = 1.75-8.68), or ever tobacco users (OR = 1.66; 95%CI = 1.03-2.67). Oral health status appeared to be independent of diet, BMI status, and history of hypertension. Difficulties and behaviors related to oral health were more frequently reported by women than by men. These included pain (P < 0.001), difficulty chewing (P < 0.001), and discomfort over appearance of teeth (P < 0.001). Participants used toothbrushes, toothpicks, dental floss, and miswak to maintain oral hygiene. CONCLUSION: Our results provide evidence that oral health remains a public health concern in Qatar.

Familial pancreatic cancer in Italy. Risk assessment, screening programs and clinical approach: a position paper from the Italian Registry.

In Italy, pancreatic cancer is the fifth leading cause of tumor related death with about 7000 new cases per year and a mortality rate of 95%. In a recent prospective epidemiological study on the Italian population, a family history was found in about 10% of patients suffering from a ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (PDAC). A position paper from the Italian Registry for Familial Pancreatic Cancer was made to manage these high-risk individuals. Even though in the majority of high-risk individuals a genetic test to identify familial predisposition is not available, a screening protocol seems to be reasonable for subjects who have a >10-fold greater risk for the development of PDAC. However this kind of screening should be included in clinical trials, performed in centers with high expertise in pancreatic disease, using the least aggressive diagnostic modalities.

A critical appraisal of the adjuvant chemotherapy guidelines for patients with completely resected T3N0 non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: A Joint Expert Panel recently published guidelines for adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy, recommending routine use in patients with completely resected stage II (T1-2N1 and T3N0) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, these two tumor subgroups should be considered as different entities. While the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy has been established in patients with T1-2N1 NSCLC, its benefit in patients with T3N0 tumor remains questionable. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We performed an extensive review of the literature using the Joint Expert Panel guidelines as a start point. Altogether, we identified 76 potentially relevant articles. Basing on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 23 of the 76 articles were eventually included in this review. RESULTS: After careful evaluation of the selected articles, we found no information on the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with T3N0 NSCLC. DISCUSSION: In the absence of evidence-based data, we recommend that the lack of information on the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy for T3N0 tumors be discussed with patients and propose chemotherapy as an individual option. While the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy will be difficult to assess prospectively through a large randomized clinical trial, a pooled-analysis of the existing data would quickly and with a limited effort provide a preliminary answer.

Pathological assessment of pericolonic tumor deposits in advanced colonic carcinoma: relevance to prognosis and tumor staging.

The current TNM classification considers a tumor nodule in the pericolic/perirectal adipose tissue as venous invasion if the nodule has an irregular contour and as regional lymph node metastasis if the nodule has the form and smooth contour of a lymph node. However, detailed studies on the clinico-pathological implications of pericolonic tumor deposits and of extranodal extension are still lacking. We investigated the impact of these metastatic deposits in the pericolic fat in a series of 228 patients with advanced colon cancer. The pericolonic tumor deposits were characterized by their appearance, size, distance from the primary tumor and by their relation with the lymphatic tissue not organized in lymph nodes. These features were then compared with the clinico-pathological characteristics of the tumors and with the patients' survival. All these lesions were associated with reduced disease-free and overall survivals in a univariate analysis, but only pericolonic tumor deposits retained an independent prognostic role in the multivariate analysis. Our findings suggest that pericolonic tumor deposits are a destructive type of venous invasion different from other types of vessel involvement, and that these lesions may rather be included in the M category for staging purposes.

The epidemiology and impact of pancreatic diseases in the United States.

In the United States, acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis, and pancreatic cancer are the most common pancreatic disorders requiring diagnosis and treatment. Pancreatic cancer is responsible for nearly 30,000 annual deaths and is the second most common cause of death from any type of gastrointestinal disease. Gallstone disease, which is strongly associated with obesity, and excessive consumption of alcohol are the major risk factors for benign pancreatic disease, whereas smoking is the most important factor known to cause pancreatic cancer. Therefore, to reduce the overall burden of pancreatic disease, we should focus on the control of three lifestyle factors: smoking, drinking, and obesity.

Severe acute pancreatitis: when to be concerned?

The fate of a patient with acute pancreatitis largely depends on early recognition of the severity of the disease. Acute pancreatitis is severe when organ failure and/or pancreatic necrosis occur. Whereas simple and low cost parameters are available for the detection of organ failure, the detection and extent of pancreatic necrosis requires a costly contrast-enhanced computed tomography. This is not always available in all institutions. This review article which considers when the clinician should be concerned about his patient diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, summarizes possibilities for diagnosing clinical severe (that is organ failure) and radiological severe (that is the necrotizing form of the disease) pancreatitis using simple and inexpensive parameters which are available everywhere. At present, a CT scan should be performed in those patients with alcohol etiology, those admitted to hospital early (time interval between the onset of symptoms and admission to hospital of less than 24 h, those presenting with rebound tenderness and/or guarding, a lipase >1,000 U/l, as well as a raised hematocrit and blood glucose. The evaluation, furthermore, shows that some parameters have a sufficiently high negative predictive value of >90%, which may render a contrast-enhanced CT scan unnecessary in the early stages, unless the patient fails to improve. These parameters include non-alcohol etiology, time interval between onset and admission to hospital longer than 24 h, no guarding or rebound tenderness on admission, low or normal hematocrit and nonelevated blood glucose. It is necessary to look further on simple low cost and more valid parameters on admission in order to reliably distinguish between necrotizing pancreatitis and interstitial pancreatitis.

Assessment of risk associated with specific fatty acids and colorectal cancer among French-Canadians in Montreal: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Discrepancies in findings on the association between dietary fats and colorectal cancer (CRC) persist, and it is hypothesized that fatty acids (FA) may modulate CRC risk because of their physiological functions. METHODS: Between 1989 and 1993, a case-control study involving 402 cases and 668 population-based controls was conducted among French-Canadians. Dietary intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. RESULTS: Oleic acid was the major FA consumed by the study population. A significant inverse association was found among females between CRC and butyrate (OR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.34-0.96; P = 0.006), alpha-linoleic acid (ALA) (OR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.46-1.32; P = 0.016), and w-3 FA (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.50-1.41; P = 0.028), comparing the upper to the lower quartiles of intake. An increased risk was associated with arachidonic acid (AA) (OR = 2.03; 95% CI: 1.16-3.54; P = 0.001) among males, and with the w6/w3 ratio (OR = 1.47; 95% CI: 0.86-2.50; P = 0.001) among females. Arachidonic acid was linked with up to fivefold increased risk (OR = 5.33; 95% CI: 2.04-13.95; P = 0.0004 for trend) among men with high vitamin C intake. Females with low carotenoids intake were at elevated risk associated with AA (OR = 4.07; 95% CI: 1.84-8.99; P = 0.003); eicosapentaenoic acid (OR = 3.50; 95% CI: 1.59-7.71; P = 0.015), and docosahexaenoic acid (OR = 5.77; 95% CI: 2.50-13.33; P = 0.002), comparing the upper with the lower quartiles of intake. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that independently of total energy intake, substituting AA by butyrate, ALA, or omega-3 FA may reduce CRC risk. The role of interactions between vitamin C, total carotenoids, and polyunsaturated FA requires further investigation.