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1.
Gastroenterology ; 167(2): 378-391, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38552670

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation. METHODS: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMSmin) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: CMSmin reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMSmin cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMSmin would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation. CONCLUSIONS: CMSmin could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Sangue Oculto , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Colonoscopia/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Biópsia Líquida/economia , Biomarcadores Tumorais/sangue , Biomarcadores Tumorais/análise , Cadeias de Markov , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Fezes/química , Estados Unidos , Incidência , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Pesquisa Comparativa da Efetividade , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde
2.
Cancer ; 130(6): 901-912, 2024 03 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38180788

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence at ages <50 years is increasing worldwide. Screening initiation was lowered to 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of initiating CRC screening at 45 years in Israel was assessed with the aim of informing national policy and addressing internationally relevant questions. METHODS: A validated CRC screening model was calibrated to Israeli data and examined annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy every 10 years from 45 to 74 years (FIT45-74 or Colo45-74) versus from 50 to 74 years (FIT50-74 or Colo50-74). The addition of a fourth colonoscopy at 75 years was explored, subanalyses were performed by sex/ethnicity, and resource demands were estimated. RESULTS: FIT50-74 and Colo50-74 reduced CRC incidence by 57% and 70% and mortality by 70% and 77%, respectively, versus no screening, with greater absolute impact in Jews/Other versus Arabs but comparable relative impact. FIT45-74 further reduced CRC incidence and mortality by an absolute 3% and 2%, respectively. With Colo45-74 versus Colo50-74, CRC cases and deaths increased slightly as three colonoscopies per lifetime shifted to 5 years earlier but mean quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYGs) per person increased. FIT45-74 and Colo45-74 cost 23,800-53,900 new Israeli shekels (NIS)/QALYG and 110,600-162,700 NIS/QALYG, with the lowest and highest values among Jewish/Other men and Arab women, respectively. A fourth lifetime colonoscopy cost 48,700 NIS/QALYG. Lowering FIT initiation to 45 years with modest participation required 19,300 additional colonoscopies in the first 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Beginning CRC screening at 45 years in Israel is projected to yield modest clinical benefits at acceptable costs per QALYG. Despite different estimates by sex/ethnicity, a uniform national policy is favored. These findings can inform Israeli guidelines and serve as a case study internationally.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Estados Unidos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Israel/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Sangue Oculto , Programas de Rastreamento
3.
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 21(2): 507-519, 2023 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35940514

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Overweight and obese persons have not only elevated rates of colorectal cancer (CRC), but also higher competing mortality and healthcare spending. We examined the cost-effectiveness of intensified CRC screening in overweight and obese persons. METHODS: We adapted our validated decision analytic model of CRC screening to compare screening starting at 45 or 40 years of age instead of at 50 years of age, or shortening screening intervals, in women and men with body mass index (BMI) ranging from normal to grade III obesity. Strategies included colonoscopy every 10 years (Colo10) or every 5 years (Colo5), or annual fecal immunochemical test. RESULTS: Without screening, sex-specific total CRC deaths were similar for persons with overweight or obesity I-III, reflecting the counterbalancing of higher CRC risk by lower life expectancy as BMI rises. For all BMI and sex groups, Colo10 starting at 45 years of age or FIT starting at 40 years of age were cost-effective at a threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Colo10 starting at 40 years of age was cost-effective only for men with obesity II-III, at $93,300 and $80,400 per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively. Shifting Colo10 to earlier starting ages was always preferred over Colo5 starting at later ages. Results were robust in sensitivity analysis, including varying all-cause mortality, complication, and BMI-specific CRC risks. CONCLUSIONS: CRC screening starting at 45 years of age with colonoscopy, or at 40 years of age with FIT, appears cost-effective for women and men across the range of BMI. In men with obesity II-III, who have the highest CRC but also all-cause mortality risks, colonoscopy starting at 40 years of age appears cost-effective. It remains to be decided whether BMI should be used as a single predictor or incorporated into a multivariable tool to tailor CRC screening.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Sobrepeso , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Análise Custo-Benefício , Sobrepeso/complicações , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Colonoscopia , Obesidade/complicações , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Sangue Oculto , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos
4.
Am J Surg ; 220(4): 1015-1022, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32362379

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), which was instituted in 2012, may have affected readmission rates for non-target conditions, including colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to analyze the nationwide all-cause 30-day readmission rate following CRC surgery in a US nationwide database. METHODS: We queried the 2010-2015 Nationwide Readmissions Database to estimate readmission rates. All results were weighted for national estimates. RESULTS: Among 616,348 index cases, the overall 2010-2015 30-day readmission rate was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 14.5%-14.9% [n = 90,555]), with a decreasing trend from 15.5% in 2010 and 2011 to 13.5% in 2015 (p-trend<0.001). Rectal resection, longer length of stay, non-invasive cancer, surgery at a metropolitan teaching hospital, non-routine discharge, elective admission, and higher Elixhauser comorbidity score were associated with subsequent readmission. CONCLUSIONS: In the US, 30-day readmission rates after CRC surgery showed a decreasing trend during 2010-2015, which could represent a spillover effect of the HRRP.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/métodos , Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act , Readmissão do Paciente/tendências , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Eletivos/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
5.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 112(3): 305-313, 2020 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31187126

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening remains underused, especially in safety-net systems. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness, costs, and cost-effectiveness of organized outreach using fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) compared with usual care. METHODS: Patients age 50-75 years eligible for CRC screening from eight participating primary care safety-net clinics were randomly assigned to outreach intervention with usual care vs usual care alone. The intervention included a mailed postcard and call, followed by a mailed FIT kit, and a reminder phone call if the FIT kit was not returned. The primary outcome was screening participation at 1 year and a microcosting analysis of the outreach activities with embedded long-term cost-effectiveness of outreach. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A total of 5386 patients were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 5434 to usual care. FIT screening was statistically significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group (57.9% vs 37.4%, P < .001; difference = 20.5%, 95% confidence interval = 18.6% to 22.4%). In the intervention group, FIT completion rate was higher in patients who had previously completed a FIT vs those who had not (71.9% vs 35.7%, P < .001). There was evidence of effect modification of the intervention by language, and clinic. Outreach cost approximately $23 per patient and $112 per additional patient screened. Projecting long-term outcomes, outreach was estimated to cost $9200 per quality-adjusted life-year gained vs usual care. CONCLUSION: Population-based management with organized FIT outreach statistically significantly increased CRC screening and was cost-effective in a safety-net system. The sustainability of the program and any impact of economies of scale remain to be determined.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Idoso , Análise Custo-Benefício , Custos e Análise de Custo , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Imuno-Histoquímica , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
6.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev ; 29(2): 318-328, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31796524

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Global increases in colorectal cancer risk have spurred debate about optimal use of screening resources. We explored the potential clinical and economic impact of colorectal cancer screening tailored to predicted colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We compared screening tailored to predicted risk versus uniform screening in a validated decision analytic model, considering the average risk population's actual colorectal cancer risk distribution, and a risk-prediction tool's discriminatory ability and cost. Low, moderate, and high risk tiers were identified as colorectal cancer risk after age 50 years of ≤3%, >3 to <12%, and ≥12%, respectively, based on threshold analyses with willingness-to-pay <$50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Tailored colonoscopy (once at age 60 years for low risk, every 10 years for moderate risk, and every 5 years for high risk) was compared with colonoscopy every 10 years for all. Tailored fecal immunochemical testing (FIT)/colonoscopy (annual FIT for low and moderate risk, colonoscopy every 5 years for high risk) was compared with annual FIT for all. RESULTS: Assuming no colorectal cancer risk misclassification or risk-prediction tool costs, tailored screening was preferred over uniform screening. Tailored colonoscopy was minimally less effective than uniform colonoscopy, but saved $90,200-$889,000/QALY; tailored FIT/colonoscopy yielded more QALYs/person than annual FIT at $10,600-$60,000/QALY gained. Relatively modest colorectal cancer risk misclassification rates or risk-prediction tool costs resulted in uniform screening as the preferred approach. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk-prediction tools may not yet be accurate enough to optimize colorectal cancer screening. IMPACT: Uniform screening is likely to be preferred over tailored screening if a risk-prediction tool is associated with even modest misclassification rates or costs.


Assuntos
Regras de Decisão Clínica , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Programas de Rastreamento/normas , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/normas , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Cadeias de Markov , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Oncologia/economia , Oncologia/normas , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sangue Oculto , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Sociedades Médicas/normas , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
7.
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 17(11): 2347-2355.e5, 2019 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31077826

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients in need of liver transplantation may travel to improve their chance of receiving an organ. We evaluated factors to determine which transplant candidates travel to other regions to increase their chances of receiving a liver and effects of travel on waitlist outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all adult patients registered for primary deceased donor liver transplantation in the United States from January 2004 to December 2016. Zip code data were used to calculate the travel distance from a patient's residence to centers at which they were on the waitlist or received a liver transplant. Distant listing and migration were defined as placement on a waitlist and receipt of liver transplantation, respectively, outside the home transplantation region and greater than 500 miles from the home zip code. We assessed the effect of distant listing on outcomes (death and liver transplantation) and predictors of distant listing or migration using multivariable analyses. RESULTS: There were 104,914 waitlist registrations during the study period; of these, 2930 (2.8%) pursued listing at a distant center. Of waitlist registrants, 60,985 received liver transplants, of whom 1985 (3.3%) had migrated. In a multivariable competing risk analysis in which liver transplantation was considered as a competing event, distant listing was associated with a 22% reduction in the risk of death within 1 year (subhazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.88). Distant listing and migration were associated with non-black race, non-Medicaid payer, residence in a higher income area, and education beyond high school. CONCLUSIONS: Placement on a liver transplant waitlist outside the home transplantation region is associated with reduced waitlist mortality and an increased probability of receiving a liver transplant. Geographic disparities in access to liver transplantation have disproportionate effects on patients who are minorities, have lower levels of education, or have public insurance.


Assuntos
Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Transplante de Fígado/estatística & dados numéricos , Doadores Vivos , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Listas de Espera/mortalidade , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
8.
Gastroenterology ; 157(1): 137-148, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30930021

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The American Cancer Society has recommended initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at age 45 years instead of 50 years. We estimated the cost effectiveness and national effects of adopting this recommendation. METHODS: We compared screening strategies and alternative resource allocations in a validated Markov model. We based national projections on screening participation rates by age and census data. RESULTS: Screening colonoscopy initiation at age 45 years instead of 50 years in 1000 persons averted 4 CRCs and 2 CRC deaths, gained 14 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost $33,900/QALY gained, and required 758 additional colonoscopies. These 758 colonoscopies could instead be used to screen 231 currently unscreened 55-year-old persons or 342 currently unscreened 65-year-old persons, through age 75 years. These alternatives averted 13-14 CRC cases and 6-7 CRC deaths and gained 27-28 discounted QALYs while saving $163,700-$445,800. Improving colonoscopy completion rates after abnormal results from a fecal immunochemical test yielded greater benefits and savings. Initiation of fecal immunochemical testing at age 45 years instead of 50 years cost $7700/QALY gained. Shifting current age-specific screening rates to 5 years earlier could avert 29,400 CRC cases and 11,100 CRC deaths over the next 5 years but would require 10.7 million additional colonoscopies and cost an incremental $10.4 billion. Improving screening rates to 80% in persons who are 50-75 years old would avert nearly 3-fold more CRC deaths at one third the incremental cost. CONCLUSIONS: In a Markov model analysis, we found that starting CRC screening at age 45 years is likely to be cost effective. However, greater benefit, at lower cost, could be achieved by increasing participation rates for unscreened older and higher-risk persons.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia/métodos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Sangue Oculto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , American Cancer Society , Colonoscopia/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Feminino , Humanos , Imunoquímica/economia , Imunoquímica/métodos , Masculino , Cadeias de Markov , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Estados Unidos
9.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 113(12): 1836-1847, 2018 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29904156

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Most cost-effectiveness analyses of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening assume Medicare payment rates and a lifetime horizon. Our aims were to examine the implications of differential payment levels and time horizons for commercial insurers vs. Medicare on the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening. METHODS: We used our validated Markov cohort simulation of CRC screening in the average risk US population to examine CRC screening at ages 50-64 under commercial insurance, and at ages 65-80 under Medicare, using a health-care sector perspective. Model outcomes included discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs per person, and incremental cost/QALY gained. RESULTS: Lifetime costs/person were 20-44% higher when assuming commercial payment rates rather than Medicare rates for people under 65. Most of the substantial clinical benefit of screening at ages 50-64 was realized at ages ≥65. For commercial payers with a time horizon of ages 50-64, fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) and fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) were cost-effective (<$61,000/QALY gained), but colonoscopy was costly (>$185,000/QALY gained). Medicare experienced substantial clinical benefits and cost-savings from screening done at ages <65, even if screening was not continued. Among those previously screened, continuing FOBT and FIT under Medicare was cost-saving and continuing colonoscopy was highly cost-effective (<$30,000/QALY gained), and initiating any screening in those previously unscreened was highly effective and cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling suggests that CRC screening is highly cost-effective over a lifetime even when considering higher payment rates by commercial payers vs. Medicare. Screening may appear relatively costly for commercial payers if only a time horizon of ages 50-64 is considered, but it is predicted to yield substantial clinical and economic benefits that accrue primarily at ages ≥65 under Medicare.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Comércio/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Comércio/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Setor de Assistência à Saúde/economia , Setor de Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Cadeias de Markov , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Medicare/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Econômicos , Sangue Oculto , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Fatores Sexuais , Estados Unidos
10.
Hepatology ; 68(1): 78-88, 2018 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29023828

RESUMO

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been recommended in patients with cirrhosis. In this study, we examined the extent to which the competing risk of hepatic decompensation influences the benefit of HCC surveillance by investigating the impact of availability of liver transplantation (LTx) and the rate of progression of hepatic decompensation on survival gain from HCC surveillance. A multistate Markov model was constructed simulating a cohort of 50-year-old patients with compensated cirrhosis. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause and HCC-specific mortality. The main input data included incidence of HCC, sensitivity of screening test, and mortality from hepatic decompensation. Treatment modalities modeled included LTx, resection, and radiofrequency ablation. In the base case scenario, LTx would be available to prevent death in a certain proportion of patients. In the absence of surveillance, 68.2% of the cohort members died within 15 years; of these decedents, 25.1% died from HCC and 43.6% died from hepatic decompensation. With surveillance, the median survival improved from 10.4 years to 11.2 years. The number of subjects under surveillance needed to reduce one all-cause and one HCC-specific death over 15 years was 28 and 18, respectively. In sensitivity analyses, incidence of HCC and progression of cirrhosis had the strongest effect on the benefit of surveillance, whereas LTx availability had a negligible effect. CONCLUSION: HCC surveillance decreases all-cause and tumor-specific mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis regardless of LTx availability. In addition, incidence of HCC and sensitivity of surveillance test also had a substantial impact on the benefits of surveillance. (Hepatology 2018;68:78-88).


Assuntos
Carcinoma Hepatocelular/mortalidade , Cirrose Hepática/mortalidade , Neoplasias Hepáticas/mortalidade , Modelos Teóricos , Vigilância da População , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/diagnóstico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/cirurgia , Humanos , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Neoplasias Hepáticas/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Hepáticas/cirurgia , Transplante de Fígado , Cadeias de Markov , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
11.
Hepatology ; 67(1): 273-281, 2018 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28586179

RESUMO

The Share 35 policy was implemented in June 2013 to improve equity in access to liver transplantation (LT) between patients with fulminant liver failure and those with cirrhosis and severe hepatic decompensation. The aim of this study was to assess post-LT outcomes after Share 35. Relevant donor, procurement, and recipient data were extracted from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing database. All adult deceased donor LTs from January 1, 2010, to March 31, 2016, were included in the analysis. One-year patient survival before and after Share 35 was assessed by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, with adjustment for variables known to affect graft survival. Of 34,975 adult LT recipients, 16,472 (47.1%) were transplanted after the implementation of Share 35, of whom 4,599 (27.9%) had a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≥35. One-year patient survival improved from 83.9% to 88.4% after Share 35 (P < 0.01) for patients with MELD ≥35. There was no significant impact on survival of patients with MELD <35 (P = 0.69). Quality of donor organs, as measured by a donor risk index without the regional share component, improved for patients with MELD ≥35 (P < 0.01) and worsened for patients with lower MELD (P < 0.01). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, Share 35 was associated with improved 1-year patient survival (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.80) in recipients with MELD ≥35. CONCLUSION: Share 35 has had a positive impact on survival after transplantation in patients with MELD ≥35, without a reciprocal detriment in patients with lower acuity; this was in part a result of more favorable donor-recipient matching. (Hepatology 2018;67:273-281).


Assuntos
Causas de Morte , Doença Hepática Terminal/mortalidade , Doença Hepática Terminal/cirurgia , Transplante de Fígado/mortalidade , Obtenção de Tecidos e Órgãos/organização & administração , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Doença Hepática Terminal/diagnóstico , Feminino , Rejeição de Enxerto , Sobrevivência de Enxerto , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Transplante de Fígado/métodos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Formulação de Políticas , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença
12.
Gastroenterology ; 151(3): 427-439.e6, 2016 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27311556

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We developed a model to determine whether a multitarget stool DNA (MT-sDNA) test that detects colorectal cancer (CRC) and polyps with higher sensitivity and lower specificity, but at a higher cost, than the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) can be used in screening. METHODS: We used a Markov model of average-risk CRC screening to compare the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of screening with the MT-sDNA test vs FIT or colonoscopy. We accounted for the complex longitudinal participation patterns observed in organized programs vs opportunistic screening, as well as organized programs' patient support costs and differential payment rates by commercial insurers vs Medicare. RESULTS: With optimal adherence, yearly FIT and colonoscopy every 10 years were dominant (more effective and less costly) than MT-sDNA every 3 years. Compared with successful organized FIT programs (50% consistent and 27% intermittent participation; patient support costs, $153/cycle), the patient support program for the MT-sDNA test would need 68% of subjects to participate consistently and 32% to participate intermittently every 3 years, or the MT-sDNA test would need to cost 60% less than in the base case ($260 commercial payment and $197 Medicare payment), for the MT-sDNA test to be preferred over FIT at a threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Compared with opportunistic yearly FIT screening (15% consistent and 30% intermittent participation), performing the MT-sDNA test every 3 years would cost less than $100,000 per QALY gained if the MT-sDNA test achieved a participation rate more than 1.7-fold that of FIT. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Assuming equal participation across strategies and a threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained, FIT was preferred in 99.3% of iterations in Monte Carlo simulation. CONCLUSIONS: In a Markov model, we found FIT and colonoscopy to be more effective and less costly than the MT-sDNA test when participation rates were equal for all strategies. For the MT-sDNA test to be cost effective, the patient support program included in its cost would need to achieve substantially higher participation rates than those of FIT, whether in organized programs or under the opportunistic screening setting that is more common in the United States than in the rest of the world.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , DNA de Neoplasias/análise , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Fezes/química , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Sangue Oculto , Idoso , Colonoscopia/economia , Pesquisa Comparativa da Efetividade , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Estados Unidos
13.
Cancer ; 122(17): 2663-70, 2016 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27219715

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tailoring screening to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk could improve screening effectiveness. Most CRCs arise from advanced neoplasia (AN) that dwells for years. To date, no available colorectal neoplasia risk score has been validated externally in a diverse population. The authors explored whether the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC risk-assessment tool, which was developed to predict future CRC risk, could predict current AN prevalence in a diverse population, thereby allowing its use in risk stratification for screening. METHODS: This was a prospective examination of the relation between predicted 10-year CRC risk and the prevalence of AN, defined as advanced or multiple (≥3 adenomatous, ≥5 serrated) adenomatous or sessile serrated polyps, in individuals undergoing screening colonoscopy. RESULTS: Among 509 screenees (50% women; median age, 58 years; 61% white, 5% black, 10% Hispanic, and 24% Asian), 58 (11%) had AN. The prevalence of AN increased progressively from 6% in the lowest risk-score quintile to 17% in the highest risk-score quintile (P = .002). Risk-score distributions in individuals with versus without AN differed significantly (median, 1.38 [0.90-1.87] vs 1.02 [0.62-1.57], respectively; P = .003), with substantial overlap. The discriminatory accuracy of the tool was modest, with areas under the curve of 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.69) overall, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.49-0.70) for women, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.53-0.73) for men. The results did not change substantively when the analysis was restricted to adenomatous lesions or to screening procedures without any additional incidental indication. CONCLUSIONS: The NCI CRC risk-assessment tool displays modest discriminatory accuracy in predicting AN at screening colonoscopy in a diverse population. This tool may aid shared decision-making in clinical practice. Cancer 2016. © 2016 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2016;122:2663-2670. © 2016 American Cancer Society.


Assuntos
Adenoma/diagnóstico , Pólipos do Colo/diagnóstico , Colonoscopia/métodos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adenoma/epidemiologia , Fatores Etários , Idoso , California , Pólipos do Colo/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Prevalência , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais
14.
Cancer ; 121(7): 1088-97, 2015 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25492455

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is underused by minority populations, and patient navigation increases adherence with screening colonoscopy. In this study, the authors estimated the cost-effectiveness of navigation for screening colonoscopy from the perspective of a payer seeking to improve population health. METHODS: A validated model of CRC screening was informed with inputs from navigation studies in New York City (population: 43% African American, 49% Hispanic, 4% white, 4% other; base-case screening: 40% without navigation, 65% with navigation; navigation costs: $29 per colonoscopy completer, $21 per noncompleter, $3 per non-navigated individual). Two analyses compared: 1) navigation versus no navigation for 1-time screening colonoscopy in unscreened individuals aged ≥ 50 years; and 2) programs of colonoscopy with versus without navigation versus fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for individuals ages 50 to 80 years. RESULTS: In the base case: 1) 1-time navigation gained quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and decreased costs; 2) longitudinal navigation cost $9800 per QALY gained versus no navigation, and, assuming comparable uptake rates, it cost $118,700 per QALY gained versus FOBT but was less effective and more costly than FIT. The results were most dependent on screening participation rates and navigation costs: 1) assuming a 5% increase in screening uptake with navigation, and a navigation cost of $150 per completer, 1-time navigation cost $26,400 per QALY gained; and 2) longitudinal navigation with 75% colonoscopy uptake cost <$25,000 per QALY gained versus FIT when FIT uptake was <50%. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses did not alter the conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Navigation for screening colonoscopy appears to be cost-effective, and 1-time navigation may be cost-saving. In emerging health care models that reward outcomes, payers should consider covering the costs of navigation for screening colonoscopy.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Cooperação do Paciente , Navegação de Pacientes , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Prognóstico , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
15.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 109(10): 1513-25, 2014 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24980877

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Screening decreases colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality. The national press has scrutinized colonoscopy charges. Little systematic evidence exists on colorectal testing and payments among commercially insured persons. Our aim was to characterize outpatient colorectal testing utilization and payments among commercially insured US adults. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study of outpatient colorectal test utilization rates, indications, and payments among 21 million 18-64-year-old employees and dependants with noncapitated group health insurance provided by 160 self-insured employers in the 2009 Truven MarketScan Databases. RESULTS: Colonoscopy was the predominant colorectal test. Among 50-64-year olds, 12% underwent colonoscopy in 1 year. Most fecal tests and colonoscopies were associated with screening/surveillance indications. Testing rates were higher in women, and increased with age. Mean payments for fecal occult blood and immunochemical tests were $5 and $21, respectively. Colonoscopy payments varied between and within sites of service. Mean payments for diagnostic colonoscopy in an office, outpatient hospital facility, and ambulatory surgical center were $586 (s.d. $259), $1,400 (s.d. $681), and $1,074 (s.d. $549), respectively. Anesthesia and pathology services accompanied 35 and 52% of colonoscopies, with mean payments of $494 (s.d. $354) and $272 (s.d. $284), respectively. Mean payments for the most prevalent colonoscopy codes were 1.4- to 1.9-fold the average Medicare payments. CONCLUSIONS: Most outpatient colorectal testing among commercially insured adults was associated with screening or surveillance. Payments varied widely across sites of service, and payments for anesthesia and pathology services contributed substantially to total payments. Cost-effectiveness analyses of CRC screening have relied on Medicare payments as proxies for costs, but cost-effectiveness may differ when analyzed from the perspectives of Medicare or commercial insurers.


Assuntos
Assistência Ambulatorial , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico , Colonografia Tomográfica Computadorizada , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Gastos em Saúde , Adolescente , Adulto , Assistência Ambulatorial/economia , Assistência Ambulatorial/estatística & dados numéricos , Anestesia/economia , Anestesia/estatística & dados numéricos , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/economia , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Colonografia Tomográfica Computadorizada/economia , Colonografia Tomográfica Computadorizada/estatística & dados numéricos , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Cobertura do Seguro , Seguro Saúde , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
16.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 109(4): 579-88, 2014 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24492754

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Heritable and environmental factors may contribute to differences in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence across populations. We capitalized on the resources of the California Cancer Registry (CCR) and California's diverse Asian population to perform a cohort study exploring the relationships between CRC incidence, nativity, and neighborhood-level factors across Asian subgroups. METHODS: We identified CRC cases in the CCR from 1990 to 2004 and calculated age-adjusted CRC incidence rates for non-Hispanic Whites and US-born vs. foreign-born Asian ethnic subgroups, stratified by neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and "ethnic enclave." Trends were studied with joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: CRC incidence was lowest among foreign-born South Asians (22.0/100,000; 95% confidence interval (CI): 19.7-24.5/100,000) and highest among foreign-born Japanese (74.6/100,000; 95% CI: 70.1-79.2/100,000). Women in all Asian subgroups except Japanese, and men in all Asian subgroups except Japanese and US-born Chinese, had lower CRC incidence than non-Hispanic Whites. Among Chinese men and Filipino women and men, CRC incidence was lower among foreign-born than US-born persons; the opposite was observed for Japanese women and men. Among non-Hispanic Whites, but not most Asian subgroups, CRC incidence decreased over time. CRC incidence was inversely associated with neighborhood SES among non-Hispanic Whites, and level of ethnic enclave among Asians. CONCLUSIONS: CRC incidence rates differ substantially across Asian subgroups in California. The significant associations between CRC incidence and nativity and residence in an ethnic enclave suggest a substantial effect of acquired environmental factors. The absence of declines in CRC incidence rates among most Asians during our study period may point to disparities in screening compared with Whites.


Assuntos
Asiático , Neoplasias Colorretais/etnologia , Emigrantes e Imigrantes , Características de Residência , Classe Social , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , California/epidemiologia , China/etnologia , Estudos de Coortes , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Japão/etnologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Filipinas/etnologia , Análise de Regressão , Fatores de Risco , Programa de SEER , População Branca
17.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 108(9): 1496-507, 2013 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23857475

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Gastrointestinal (GI) emergencies may cause substantial morbidity. Our aims were to characterize the national clinical and economic burden of GI visits to emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. METHODS: We performed an observational cross-sectional study using the 2007 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, the largest US all-payer ED database, to identify the leading causes for ED visits due to GI diseases and their associated charges, stratified by age and sex. Logistic regression was used to analyze predictors of hospitalization after an ED visit. RESULTS: Of the 122 million ED visits in 2007, 15 million (12%) had a primary GI diagnosis. The leading primary GI diagnoses were abdominal pain (4.7 million visits), nausea and vomiting (1.6 million visits), and functional disorders of the digestive system (0.7 million visits). The leading diagnoses differed by age group. The fraction of ED visits resulting in hospitalization was 21.6% for primary GI diagnoses vs. 14.7% for non-GI visits. Women had more ED visits with a primary GI diagnosis than men (58.5 (95% CI 56.0-60.9) vs. 41.6 (95% CI 39.8-43.3) per 1000 persons), but lower rates of subsequent hospitalization (20.0% (95% CI 19.4-20.7%) vs. 24.0% (95% CI 23.3-24.6%)). There were no differences in hospitalization rates between sexes after adjustment by age, primary GI diagnosis, and Charlson Comorbidity Score. The total charges for ED visits with a primary GI diagnosis in 2007 were $27.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: GI illnesses account for substantial clinical and economic burdens on US emergency medical services.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/economia , Gastroenteropatias/economia , Hospitalização/economia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Estudos Transversais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Gastroenteropatias/terapia , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Sexuais , Estados Unidos
18.
Gastroenterology ; 143(5): 1227-1236, 2012 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22841786

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening decreases colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Colonoscopy has become the most common CRC screening test in the United States, but the degree to which it protects against CRC of the proximal colon is unclear. We examined US trends in rates of resection for proximal vs distal CRC, which reflect CRC incidence, in the context of national CRC screening data, before and since Medicare's 2001 decision to pay for screening colonoscopy. METHODS: We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, the largest US all-payer inpatient database, to estimate age-adjusted rates of resection for distal and proximal CRC, from 1993 to 2009, in adults. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: The rate of resection for distal CRC decreased from 38.7 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.4-42.0) to 23.2 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 20.9-25.5) from 1993 to 2009, with annual decreases of 1.2% (95% CI, 0.1%-2.3%) from 1993 to 1999, followed by larger annual decreases of 3.8% (95% CI, 3.3%-4.3%) from 1999 to 2009 (P < .001). In contrast, the rate of resection for proximal CRC decreased from 30.0 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 27.4-32.5) to 22.7 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 20.6-24.7) from 1993 to 2009, but significant annual decreases of 3.1% (95% CI, 2.3%-4.0%) occurred only after 2002 (P < .001). Rates of resection for CRC decreased for adults ages 50 years and older, but increased for younger adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the hypothesis that population-level decreases in rates of resection for distal CRC are associated with screening, in general, and that implementation of screening colonoscopy, specifically, might be an important factor that contributes to population-level decreases in rates of resection for proximal CRC.


Assuntos
Colectomia/estatística & dados numéricos , Colo/cirurgia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Colectomia/tendências , Colo Ascendente/cirurgia , Colo Descendente/cirurgia , Colo Sigmoide/cirurgia , Colo Transverso/cirurgia , Colonoscopia/economia , Intervalos de Confiança , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Medicare/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise de Regressão , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
19.
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 10(1): 37-45, 2012 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21871250

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) imposes significant clinical and economic burdens. We aimed to characterize practice patterns for patients with IBS in a large health maintenance organization, analyzing point of diagnosis, testing, comorbidities, and treatment. METHODS: Members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who were diagnosed with IBS were matched to controls by age, sex, and period of enrollment. We compared rates of testing, comorbidities, and interventions. RESULTS: From 1995-2005, IBS was diagnosed in 141,295 patients (mean age, 46 years; standard deviation, 17 years; 74% female). Internists made 68% of diagnoses, gastroenterologists 13%, and others 19%. Lower endoscopy did not usually precede IBS diagnosis. Patients with IBS were more likely than controls to have blood, stool, endoscopic, and radiologic tests and to undergo abdominal or pelvic operations (odds ratios, 1.5-10.7; all P < .0001). Only 2.7% were tested for celiac disease, and only 1.8% were eventually diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease. Chronic pain syndromes, anxiety, and depression were more common among IBS patients than among controls (odds ratios, 2.7-4.6; all P < .0001). Many patients with IBS were treated with anxiolytics (61%) and antidepressants (55%). Endoscopic and radiologic testing was most strongly associated with having IBS diagnosed by a gastroenterologist. Psychotropic medication use was most strongly associated with female sex. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, managed care cohort, most diagnoses of IBS were made by generalists, often without endoscopic evaluation. Patients with IBS had consistently higher rates of testing, chronic pain syndromes, psychiatric comorbidity, and operations than controls. Most patients with IBS were treated with psychiatric medications.


Assuntos
Síndrome do Intestino Irritável/complicações , Síndrome do Intestino Irritável/diagnóstico , Adulto , Idoso , Ansiedade/epidemiologia , California/epidemiologia , Dor Crônica/epidemiologia , Comorbidade , Depressão/epidemiologia , Feminino , Sistemas Pré-Pagos de Saúde , Humanos , Síndrome do Intestino Irritável/terapia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
20.
Dig Dis Sci ; 55(6): 1689-95, 2010 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20428948

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Intestinal and extra-intestinal complications are associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) but their exact incidence is not well known. In order to improve our understanding of their incidence and impact, we assessed the complications associated with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) in a population-based study in Medicaid patients. METHODS: We utilized a retrospective cohort design and identified cases of UC and CD using Medi-Cal, the Medicaid program for the State of California. The disease cohort was age- and gender-matched to four controls each and the intestinal and extra-intestinal complications of CD and UC (analyzed separately) were studied over a period of 5 years following the initial diagnosis. RESULTS: For UC, the total number of intestinal complications, per 100 cases, was 92 observed compared to 21 expected; the total number of extra-intestinal complications was 42 observed compared to 30 expected. For CD, the number of intestinal complications was 81 observed compared to 20 expected and for extra-intestinal complications, 37 observed compared to 26 expected (all p < 0.001). For both UC and CD, bleeding was the most frequently seen intestinal complication, while the most common extra-intestinal complication was osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS: IBD is associated with several intestinal and extra-intestinal complications of variable incidence and risk. Success of therapeutic regimens should be measured by decreases in incidence, risks, and costs of these complications, in addition to the usual impact on disease activity.


Assuntos
Colite Ulcerativa/complicações , Colite Ulcerativa/epidemiologia , Doença de Crohn/complicações , Doença de Crohn/epidemiologia , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , California/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Colite Ulcerativa/terapia , Doença de Crohn/terapia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
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