Cost Effectiveness of Screening for Hepatitis C Virus in Iraq in the Era of Simplified Testing and Treatment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Recent advances in hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostic testing methods allow for a one-stop simplified 'test and cure' approach. The cost effectiveness of incorporating this simplified approach into HCV screening in Iraq remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different HCV testing and diagnostic approaches, and screening strategies in Iraq from a health service perspective. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using a hybrid model comprising a screening decision tree linked to a lifetime Markov model to estimate outcomes in HCV-infected people. Cost and utility estimates were sourced from the published literature and expert guidance provided by clinicians and policy makers in Iraq. Cost estimates were reported in 2019 USD or 2019 Iraqi Dinar and both costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually. RESULTS: Strategies using a simplified approach were found to be cost saving in addition to improving patient outcomes when compared with a standard testing and diagnostic approach. When considering risk-based screening, a simplified approach was associated with a total cost saving of Iraqi Dinar 4375 billion (USD 3.7 billion) and per patient life-year and quality-adjusted life-year gains of 0.30 and 0.55, compared with a standard approach. Benefits and cost savings were driven by a 32.2% and 23.6% reduction in the incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Estimated benefits and cost savings increased under total population screening. All screening and testing and diagnostic approaches were cost effective compared with a no screening scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the detection of HCV combined with a simplified one-stop testing and diagnostic approach represents an opportunity to reduce the burden of HCV in Iraq and may play a significant role in meeting World Health Organisation HCV elimination targets.

Clinical and economic burden of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Middle East (ME) has a high prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), driven by obesity and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Studies in Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) predict an escalating impact of NAFLD/NASH, particularly advanced fibrosis due to NASH (AF-NASH), increasing cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. The scale of this burden in other ME countries is unknown with no reports of NAFLD/NASH healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) or costs. We estimated the clinical and economic burden of NAFLD/NASH in KSA, UAE and Kuwait. METHODS: Markov models populated with country-specific obesity and T2DM prevalence data estimated numbers and progression of NAFLD/NASH patients from 2018 to 2030. Model inputs, assumptions and outputs were collected from literature, national statistics, and expert consensus. RESULTS: Over 13 years, the KSA model estimated cases increasing as follows: patients with fibrosis F0-3 doubled to 2.5 m, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma trebled to 212,000; liver failure or transplant patients increased four-fold to 4,086 and liver-related death escalated from < 10,000 to > 200,000. Similar trends occurred in UAE and Kuwait. Discounted lifetime costs of NASH standard-care increased totaling USD40.41 bn, 1.59 bn and 6.36 bn in KSA, UAE (Emiratis only) and Kuwait, respectively. NASH-related costs in 2019 comprised, respectively, 5.83%, 5.80% and 7.66% of national healthcare spending. CONCLUSIONS: NASH, especially AF-NASH, should be considered a higher priority in ME Public Health policy. Our analyses should inform health policy makers to mitigate the enormity of this escalating regional burden.