The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position. DESIGN: We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 19 742 respondents aged 2 and over. RESULTS: In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income. CONCLUSIONS: Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

Development and Evaluation of the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC) for Personalized Assessment and Feedback.

This study aimed to develop and validate a diet assessment screener - the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC). A scoping review identified currently available short diet quality assessment tools. Twenty-one articles covering 19 unique tools were included. The current tools mainly focused on individual nutrients or food groups or were developed for a specific population, and few ascertained overall dietary patterns. The 24-hour dietary recalls from the nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)-Nutrition 2015 (n = 13,958) were used to derive and validate a personalized dietary pattern informed by the scoping review using weighted partial least squares. The dominant dietary pattern in CCHS-Nutrition 2015 was characterized by high consumption of fast foods, carbonated drinks, and salty snacks and low consumption of whole fruits, orange vegetables, other vegetables and juices, whole grains, dark green vegetables, legumes, and soy. The dietary pattern assessment was used to create and evaluate DiPaC following an agile and user-centred research and development approach. DiPaC, which demonstrated high validity and intermediate reliability (internal consistency = 0.47-0.51), is publicly available at https://www.projectbiglife.ca/. DiPaC can be used by the public, clinicians, and researchers for quick and robust assessment of diet quality, providing immediate feedback with the advantage of being easy to implement.

Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among linguistic groups of patients receiving home care in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have demonstrated the negative impact of language barriers on access, quality, and safety of healthcare, which can lead to health disparities in linguistic minorities. As the population ages, those with multiple chronic diseases will require increasing levels of home care and long-term services. This study described the levels of multimorbidity among recipients of home care in Ontario, Canada by linguistic group. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort of 510,685 adults receiving home care between April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2018, in Ontario, Canada. We estimated and compared prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity (2 or more chronic diseases) across linguistic groups (Francophones, Anglophones, Allophones). The most common combinations and clustering of chronic diseases were examined. Logistic regression models were used to explore the main predictors of 'severe' multimorbidity (defined as the presence of five or more chronic diseases). RESULTS: The proportion of home care recipients with multimorbidity and severe multimorbidity was 92% and 44%, respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity was slightly higher among Allophones (93.6%) than among Anglophones (91.8%) and Francophones (92.4%). However, Francophones had higher rates of cardiovascular and respiratory disease (64.9%) when compared to Anglophones (60.2%) and Allophones (61.5%), while Anglophones had higher rates of cancer (34.2%) when compared to Francophones (25.2%) and Allophones (24.3%). Relative to Anglophones, Allophones were more likely to have severe multimorbidity (adjusted OR = 1.04, [95% CI: 1.02-1.06]). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity among Ontarians receiving home care services is high; especially for whose primary language is a language other than English or French (i.e., Allophones). Understanding differences in the prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity across linguistic groups will help tailor healthcare services to the unique needs of patients living in minority linguistic situations.

Assessment of the quality and content of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for vitamin D and for immigrants using the AGREE-II instrument: a protocol for systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, more immigrants experience vitamin D (vitD) deficiency than non-immigrants, which is attributed to ethnic variations, place or region of birth, skin pigmentation, clothing style, and resettlement-related changes in diet, physical activity, and sun exposure. Current recommendations in clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) concerning vitD are inadequate to address vitD deficiency among immigrants. CPGs may also lack guidance for physicians on vitD supplementation for immigrants. Moreover, there are concerns about the overall quality of these CPGs. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review will collate and critically appraise CPGs relevant to immigrants' health and vitD. Moreover, we will evaluate whether the CPGs of vitD including recommendations for immigrants and clarify whether the CPGs of immigrants include recommendations on vitD. METHODS: A systematic search of Ovid MEDLINE® ALL, EMBASE, and Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP) electronic databases, guideline repositories, and gray literature will be conducted to identify relevant CPGs. Two reviewers will independently evaluate the methodological quality of the retrieved guidelines using the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research, and Evaluation-II (AGREE-II) instrument. CPGs scoring ≥60% in at least four domains, including "rigor of development," will be considered high quality. CONCLUSION: Evaluating the quality and content of relevant CPGs may support researchers in developing national and global guidelines for immigrants. Furthermore, it may support vitD testing, nutritional counseling, and supplementation for vulnerable immigrant sub-populations. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021240562.

Socioeconomic position and consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% juice among Canadians: a cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe sugary drink (beverages with free sugars), sugar-sweetened beverage (beverages with added sugars, SSB) and 100% juice (beverages with natural sugars) consumption across socioeconomic position (SEP) among Canadians. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 19,742 respondents of single-day 24-h dietary recalls in the nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the prevalence of consuming each beverage type on a given day. Among consumers on a given day, linear regressions were used to estimate mean energy intake. Models included household education, food security and income quintiles as separate unadjusted exposures. Sex-specific models were estimated separately for children/adolescents (2-18 years) and adults (19 +). RESULTS: Among female children/adolescents, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB ranged from 11 to 21 and 8 to 27 percentage-points higher among lower education compared to 'Bachelor degree or above' households. In female adults, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB was 10 (95% CI: 1, 19) and 14 (95% CI: 2, 27) percentage-points higher in food insecure compared to secure households. In males, the prevalence of consuming 100% juice was 9 (95% CI: - 18, 0) percentage-points lower among food insecure compared to secure households. Social inequities in energy intake were observed in female adult consumers, among whom mean energy from sugary drinks was 27 kcal (95% CI: 3, 51) higher among food insecure compared to secure and 35 kcal (95% CI: 2, 67) higher from 100% juice among 'less than high school' education compared to 'Bachelor degree or above' households. CONCLUSION: Social inequities in sugary drink consumption exist in Canada. The associations differed by SEP indicator. Equitable interventions to reduce consumption are warranted.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Dresser le portrait de la consommation de boissons sucrées (boissons contenant des sucres libres), de boissons contenant du sucre ajouté et de jus purs à 100 % (boissons contenant des sucres naturels) chez la population canadienne en fonction du statut socioéconomique. MéTHODE: Nous avons effectué une analyse transversale des rappels alimentaires de 24 heures réalisés par 19 742 personnes dans le cadre de l'Enquête sur la santé dans les collectivités canadiennes ­ Nutrition 2015, laquelle est représentative de la population nationale. Nous avons utilisé la régression de Poisson pour estimer la prévalence de la consommation de chaque type de boisson durant un jour donné. Pour calculer l'apport énergétique quotidien moyen, nous avons utilisé des régressions linéaires. Les modèles d'analyse traitent la scolarité, la sécurité alimentaire et les quintiles de revenu des ménages comme des expositions non ajustées distinctes. L'analyse en fonction du sexe est divisée en deux groupes, soit les enfants et adolescents (2 à 18 ans) et les adultes (19 ans et plus). RéSULTATS: Chez les filles et les adolescentes, la prévalence de la consommation de boissons sucrées et de boissons contenant du sucre ajouté est plus élevée (de 11 à 21 points de pourcentage et de 8 à 27 points de pourcentage, respectivement) dans les ménages moins scolarisés que dans les ménages plus scolarisés (baccalauréat et études supérieures). Chez les femmes vivant de l'insécurité alimentaire, la prévalence de la consommation de boissons sucrées et de boissons contenant du sucre ajouté est plus élevée de 10 points de pourcentage (IC de 95 % : 1, 19) et de 14 points de pourcentage (IC de 95 % : 2, 27), respectivement, que chez celles qui n'en vivent pas. Chez les sujets masculins, la prévalence de consommation des jus purs à 100 % est moins élevée de 9 points de pourcentage (IC de 95 % : -18, 0) dans les ménages vivant de l'insécurité alimentaire. Nous avons remarqué des disparités sur le plan social dans l'apport énergétique chez les femmes; l'apport moyen provenant de boissons sucrées est plus élevé de 27 kcal (IC de 95% : 3, 51) dans les ménages vivant de l'insécurité alimentaire, et l'apport moyen provenant de jus pur à 100 % est plus élevé de 35 kcal (IC de 95 % : 2, 67) dans les ménages moins scolarisés (pas de diplôme d'études secondaires) que chez les ménages plus scolarisés (baccalauréat et études supérieures). CONCLUSION: Il existe des disparités sur le plan social dans la consommation de boissons sucrées au Canada. Les résultats variaient en fonction de l'indicateur de statut économique. Nous recommandons des interventions équitables pour réduire la consommation de ces boissons.

The Equity and Effectiveness of Achieving Canada's Voluntary Sodium Reduction Guidance Targets: A Modelling Study Using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

Background: High sodium intake is a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. This study estimated full compliance to Canada's voluntary sodium reduction guidance (SRG) targets on social inequities and population sodium intake. Methods: We conducted a modeling study using n = 19,645, 24 h dietary recalls (Canadians ≥ 2 years) from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition (2015 CCHS-N). Multivariable linear regressions were used to estimate mean sodium intake in measured (in the 2015 CCHS-N) and modelled (achieving SRG targets) scenarios across education, income and food security. The percentage of Canadians with sodium intakes above chronic disease risk reduction (CDRR) thresholds was estimated using the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) method. Results: In children aged 2-8, achieving SRG targets reduced mean sodium intake differences between food secure and insecure households from 271 mg/day (95%CI: 75,468) to 83 mg/day (95%CI: -45,212); a finding consistent across education and income. Mean sodium intake inequities between low and high education households were eliminated for females aged 9-18 (96 mg/day, 95%CI: -149,341) and adults aged 19 and older (males: 148 mg/day, 95%CI: -30,327; female: -45 mg/day, 95%CI: -141,51). Despite these declines (after achieving the SRG targets) the majority of Canadians' are above the CDRR thresholds. Conclusion: Achieving SRG targets would eliminate social inequities in sodium intake and reduce population sodium intake overall; however, additional interventions are required to reach recommended sodium levels.

Quality and Safety in Long-Term Care in Ontario: The Impact of Language Discordance.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared quality indicators across linguistic groups and sought to determine whether disparities are influenced by resident-facility language discordance in long-term care. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study using linked databases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort of newly admitted residents of long-term care facilities in Ontario, Canada, between 2010 and 2016 (N=47,727). Individual residents' information was obtained from the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) to determine resident's primary language, clinical characteristics, and health care indicators. MEASURES: Main covariates of interest were primary language of the resident and predominant language of the long-term care facility, which was determined using the French designation status as defined in the French Language Services Act. Primary outcomes were a set of quality and safety indicators related to long-term care: worsening of depression, falls, moderate-severe pain, use of antipsychotic medication, and physical restraints. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the impact of resident's primary language, facility language, and resident-facility language discordance on each quality indicator. RESULTS: Overall, there were few differences between francophones and anglophones for quality and safety indicators. Francophones were more likely to report pain (10.9% vs 9.9%; P = .001) and be physically restrained (7.3% vs 5.2%; P < .001), whereas a greater proportion of anglophones experienced worsening of depressive symptoms (24.0% vs 22.9%; P = .001). However, quality indicators were generally worse for francophones in Non-Designated facilities, except for pain, which was more commonly reported by francophones in French-Designated facilities. Anglophones were more likely to be physically restrained in French-Designated facilities (6.7% vs 5.1%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: For francophones, quality indicators tended to be worse in the presence of resident-facility language discordance. However, these findings did not persist after adjusting for individual- and facility-level characteristics, suggesting that the disparities observed at the population level cannot be attributed to linguistic factors alone.

Cerebral palsy in Canada, 2011-2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and cost impacts. / La paralysie cérébrale au Canada, 2011-2031 : résultats d'une étude de modélisation par microsimulation des répercussions épidémiologiques et économiques.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of cerebral palsy in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031). METHODS: We used Statistics Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM)-Neurological to simulate individuals' disease states, risk factors and health determinants and to describe and project health outcomes, including disease incidence, prevalence, life expectancy, health-adjusted life expectancy, health-related quality of life and health care costs over the life cycle of Canadians. Cerebral palsy cases were identified from British Columbia's health administrative data sources. A population-based cohort was then used to generate the incidence and mortality rates, enabling the projection of future incidence and mortality rates. A utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) was also included in the model to reflect various states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of cerebral palsy. RESULTS: Although the overall crude incidence rate of cerebral palsy is projected to remain stable, newly diagnosed cases of cerebral palsy will rise from approximately 1800 in 2011 to nearly 2200 in 2031. In addition, the number of people with the condition is expected to increase from more than 75 000 in 2011 to more than 94 000 in 2031. Direct health care costs in constant 2010 Canadian dollars were about $11 700 for children with cerebral palsy aged 1-4 years versus about $600 for those without the condition. In addition, people with cerebral palsy tend to have longer periods in poorer health-related quality of life. CONCLUSION: Individuals with cerebral palsy will continue to face challenges related to an ongoing need for specialized medical care and a rising need for supportive services. Our study offers important insights into future costs and impacts associated with cerebral palsy and provides valuable information that could be used to develop targeted health programs and strategies for Canadians living with this condition.

Geographic Access to Stroke Care Services in Rural Communities in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Optimal stroke care requires access to resources such as neuroimaging, acute revascularization, rehabilitation, and stroke prevention services, which may not be available in rural areas. We aimed to determine geographic access to stroke care for residents of rural communities in the province of Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We used the Ontario Road Network File database linked with the 2016 Ontario Acute Stroke Care Resource Inventory to estimate the proportion of people in rural communities, defined as those with a population size <10,000, who were within 30, 60, and 240 minutes of travel time by car from stroke care services, including brain imaging, thrombolysis treatment centers, stroke units, stroke prevention clinics, inpatient rehabilitation facilities, and endovascular treatment centers. RESULTS: Of the 1,496,262 people residing in rural communities, the majority resided within 60 minutes of driving time to a center with computed tomography (85%), thrombolysis (81%), a stroke unit (68%), a stroke prevention clinic (74%), or inpatient rehabilitation (77.0%), but a much lower proportion (32%) were within 60 minutes of driving time to a center capable of providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). CONCLUSIONS: Most rural Ontario residents have appropriate geographic access to stroke services, with the exception of EVT. This information may be useful for jurisdictions seeking to optimize the regional organization of stroke care services.

Burden of health behaviours and socioeconomic position on health care expenditure in Ontario.

Background: Smoking, unhealthy alcohol consumption, poor diet and physical inactivity are leading risk factors for morbidity and mortality, and contribute substantially to overall healthcare costs. The availability of health surveys linked to health care provides population-based estimates of direct healthcare costs. We estimated health behaviour and socioeconomic-attribute healthcare costs, and how these have changed during a period when government policies have aimed to reduce their burden.  Methods: The Ontario samples of the Canadian Community Health Surveys (conducted in 2003, 2005, and 2007-2008) were linked at the individual level to all records of health care use of publicly funded healthcare. Generalized linear models were estimated with a negative binomial distribution to ascertain the relationship of health behaviours and socioeconomic risk factors on health care costs. The multivariable cost model was applied to unlinked, Ontario CCHS samples for each year from 2004 to 2013 to examine the evolution of health behaviour and socioeconomic-attributable direct health care expenditures over a 10-year period. Results: We included 80,749 respondents, aged 25 years and older, and 312,952 person-years of follow-up. The cost model was applied to 200,324 respondents aged 25 years and older (CCHS 2004 to 2013). During the 10-year period from 2004 to 2013, smoking, unhealthy alcohol consumption, poor diet and physical inactivity attributed to 22% of Ontario's direct health care costs. Ontarians in the most disadvantaged socioeconomic position contributed to 15% of the province's direct health care costs. Combined, these health behaviour and socioeconomic risk factors were associated with 34% ($134 billion) of direct health care costs (2004 to 2013). Over this time period, we estimated a 1.9% reduction in health care expenditure ($5.0 billion) attributable to improvements in some health behaviours, most importantly reduced rates of smoking. Conclusions: Adverse health behaviours and socioeconomic position cause a large direct health care system cost burden.

Study protocol: Worldwide comparison of vitamin D status of immigrants from different ethnic origins and native-born populations-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature indicates that, worldwide, immigrants experience health deterioration after their arrival into their adopted country, and moreover, they have lower vitamin D compared to the native-born population. We plan to review if the levels of vitamin D are comparable between different ethnic groups in different regions of the world with those of native-born populations and to identify the possible associations between vitamin D deficiency and disease status among immigrants. METHODS/DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis will be conducted following the methods of the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews. A literature search was performed to identify studies on immigrants and vitamin D. The primary outcome is vitamin D levels, and the secondary outcome is any vitamin D deficiency-related disease. Study design and participant characteristics will be extracted, including ethnicity, country of birth and/or origin, and the host country. Descriptive and meta-analytic summaries of the outcomes will be derived. Distiller-SR and RevMan will be used respectively for data management and meta-analysis. DISCUSSION: This systematic review may partially help clarify vitamin D-related health deterioration in migrants; moreover, to develop a global guideline that specifies sub-populations, in which the evidence and vitamin D-related recommendations might differ from the overall immigrant population. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018086729.

Impact of health care reform on enrolment of immigrants in primary care in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: In 2003, Ontario introduced a patient enrolment system as part of health care reforms, aimed at enhancing primary health care services, but it is unclear whether immigrants have benefited from this health care reform. Therefore, we studied whether this reform changed the extent of immigrants' enrolment in primary care services in Ontario between 2003 and 2012. METHODS: This is a population-based retrospective cohort study, in which a closed cohort of 9231840 Ontario residents between 1985 and 2003 was created, using linked health administrative and immigration databases. Levels of enrolment for traditional and more comprehensive capitation-based practice between 2003 and 2012 were compared by immigrant status. Logistic regression modelling was used to assess the odds of enrolment on primary care practices. RESULTS: Overall enrolment in primary care practices increased gradually after 2004, until 2012, when two-thirds of the cohort (67%) were enrolled. The immigrants' enrolment level remained consistently lower than that of long-term residents over the study period. By 2012, enrolment of immigrants in capitation-based models was significantly lower (17.3% versus 25.4%). In particular, enrolment in Family Health Teams, considered the most comprehensive care model, was considerably lower in immigrants compared with long-term residents (5.6% versus 18.0%; OR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Immigrant enrolment rates in new comprehensive primary care models were consistently lower than among long-term residents. This has implication on equitable primary care access for immigrant populations.

Immunization and technology among newcomers: A needs assessment survey for a vaccine-tracking app.

OBJECTIVES: Newcomers experience unique challenges with respect to vaccination. These challenges are compounded by the need to navigate complex vaccination catch-up schedules upon arrival in their new home countries. Our group has pioneered the development of CANImmunize, a free, bilingual, pan-Canadian digital application designed to empower individuals to manage their vaccination records. To inform how a vaccine tracking app such as CANImmunize might be tailored to meet the unique needs of newcomers, this study sought to determine commonly spoken languages, technology use, and current methods of vaccine tracking among recent newcomers to Canada. METHODS: Government-assisted refugees attending a health clinic in Ottawa, Canada were invited to complete a 17-question needs assessment survey. The survey captured data on household demographics, spoken languages, country of origin, technology use and methods used to track vaccination history. RESULTS: 50 newcomers completed the needs assessment survey. Arabic was the predominant language spoken by surveyed individuals. Although 92% of participants owned a smartphone, the majority did not actively use digital health applications. 18 (36%) participants reported being vaccinated before arriving in Canada. 27 (54%) participants were parents, 23 of whom reported that their children were vaccinated prior to arrival in Canada. 38 (76%) participants indicated that they would use a vaccine tracking app such as CANImmunize if it were translated into their primary language of communication. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study indicate that mobile technology may be a useful tool to help newcomer families stay on track with provincial and territorial immunization schedules.

Associations between physician home visits for the dying and place of death: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While most individuals wish to die at home, the reality is that most will die in hospital. AIM: To determine whether receiving a physician home visit near the end-of-life is associated with lower odds of death in a hospital. DESIGN: Observational retrospective cohort study, examining location of death and health care in the last year of life. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Population-level study of Ontarians, a Canadian province with over 13 million residents. All decedents from April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2013 (n = 264,754). RESULTS: More than half of 264,754 decedents died in hospital: 45.7% died in an acute care hospital and 7.7% in complex continuing care. After adjustment for multiple factors-including patient illness, home care services, and days of being at home-receiving at least one physician home visit from a non-palliative care physician was associated with a 47% decreased odds (odds-ratio, 0.53; 95%CI: 0.51-0.55) of dying in a hospital. When a palliative care physician specialist was involved, the overall odds declined by 59% (odds ratio, 0.41; 95%CI: 0.39-0.43). The same model, adjusting for physician home visits, showed that receiving palliative home care was associated with a similar reduction (odds ratio, 0.49; 95%CI: 0.47-0.51). CONCLUSION: Location of death is strongly associated with end-of-life health care in the home. Less than one-third of the population, however, received end-of-life home care or a physician visit in their last year of life, revealing large room for improvement.

Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

Predicting High Health Care Resource Utilization in a Single-payer Public Health Care System: Development and Validation of the High Resource User Population Risk Tool.

BACKGROUND: A large proportion of health care spending is incurred by a small proportion of the population. Population-based health planning tools that consider both the clinical and upstream determinants of high resource users (HRU) of the health system are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT), a predictive model of adults that will become the top 5% of health care users over a 5-year period, based on self-reported clinical, sociodemographic, and health behavioral predictors in population survey data. RESEARCH DESIGN: The HRUPoRT model was developed in a prospective cohort design using the combined 2005 and 2007/2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys (CCHS) (N=58,617), and validated using the external 2009/2010 CCHS cohort (N=28,721). Health care utilization for each of the 5 years following CCHS interview date were determined by applying a person-centered costing algorithm to the linked health administrative databases. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed using c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) χ statistic. RESULTS: The best prediction model for 5-year transition to HRU status included 12 predictors and had good discrimination (c-statistic=0.8213) and calibration (HL χ=18.71) in the development cohort. The model performed similarly in the validation cohort (c-statistic=0.8171; HL χ=19.95). The strongest predictors in the HRUPoRT model were age, perceived general health, and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: HRUPoRT can accurately project the proportion of individuals in the population that will become a HRU over 5 years. HRUPoRT can be applied to inform health resource planning and prevention strategies at the community level.

Hospitalization rates among economic immigrants to Canada.

BACKGROUND: Economic immigrants generally, and economic class principal applicants (ECPAs) specifically, tend to have better health than other immigrants. However, health outcomes vary among subcategories within this group, especially by sex. DATA AND METHODS: This study examines hospitalization rates among ECPAs aged 25 to 74 who arrived in Canada between 1980 and 2006 as skilled workers, business immigrants, or live-in caregivers. The analysis used two linked databases to estimate age-standardized hospitalization rates (ASHRs) overall and for leading causes by sex. ASHRs of ECPA subcategories were compared with each other and with those of the Canadian-born population. Logistic regression was used to derive odds ratios for hospitalization among ECPAs, by sex. RESULTS: Male and female ECPAs aged 25 to 74 had significantly lower all-cause ASHRs than did the Canadian-born population in the same age range. This pattern prevailed for each ECPA subcategory and for each disease examined. Compared with skilled workers, business immigrants had lower odds of hospitalization; live-in caregivers who arrived after 1992 had higher odds. Adjustment for education, official language proficiency, and world region reduced the strength of or eliminated these associations. INTERPRETATION: Compared with the Canadian-born population, ECPAs generally had low hospitalization rates. Differences were apparent among ECPA subcategories.

Validation of an algorithm to identify children with biopsy-proven celiac disease from within health administrative data: An assessment of health services utilization patterns in Ontario, Canada.

IMPORTANCE: Celiac disease (CD) is a common pediatric illness, and awareness of gluten-related disorders including CD is growing. Health administrative data represents a unique opportunity to conduct population-based surveillance of this chronic condition and assess the impact of caring for children with CD on the health system. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to validate an algorithm based on health administrative data diagnostic codes to accurately identify children with biopsy-proven CD. We also evaluated trends over time in the use of health services related to CD by children in Ontario, Canada. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a retrospective cohort study and validation study of population-based health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. All cases of biopsy-proven CD diagnosed 2005-2011 in Ottawa were identified through chart review from a large pediatric health care center, and linked to the Ontario health administrative data to serve as positive reference standard. All other children living within Ottawa served as the negative reference standard. Case-identifying algorithms based on outpatient physician visits with associated ICD-9 code for CD plus endoscopy billing code were constructed and tested. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were tested for each algorithm (with 95% CI). Poisson regression, adjusting for sex and age at diagnosis, was used to explore the trend in outpatient visits associated with a CD diagnostic code from 1995-2011. RESULTS: The best algorithm to identify CD consisted of an endoscopy billing claim follow by 1 or more adult or pediatric gastroenterologist encounters after the endoscopic procedure. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for the algorithm were: 70.4% (95% CI 61.1-78.4%), >99.9% (95% CI >99.9->99.9%), 53.3% (95% CI 45.1-61.4%) and >99.9% (95% CI >99.9->99.9%) respectively. It identified 1289 suspected CD cases from Ontario-wide administrative data. There was a 9% annual increase in the use of this combination of CD-associated diagnostic codes in physician billing data (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.07-1.10, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: With its current structure and variables Ontario health administrative data is not suitable in identifying incident pediatric CD cases. The tested algorithms suffer from poor sensitivity and/or poor PPV, which increase the risk of case misclassification that could lead to biased estimation of CD incidence rate. This study reinforced the importance of validating the codes used to identify cohorts or outcomes when conducting research using health administrative data.

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts. / La sclérose en plaques au Canada, 2011-2031 : résultats d'une étude de modélisation par microsimulation des répercussions épidémiologiques et économiques.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031). METHODS: Using Statistics Canada's Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. RESULTS: The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. CONCLUSION: MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts.

INTRODUCTION: L'objectif de notre étude est de présenter des estimations et des projections des répercussions épidémiologiques et économiques de la sclérose en plaques (SP) au Canada sur 20 ans (2011-2031). MÉTHODOLOGIE: Nous avons utilisé un modèle de microsimulation de la santé de la population (POHEM) de Statistique Canada, plus précisément le modèle longitudinal de microsimulation démographique appelé POHEM - Maladies neurologiques. Nous avons sélectionné les personnes atteintes de SP à partir de sources de données administratives sur la santé et dérivé les paramètres liés à l'incidence de la maladie et au taux de décès d'une étude de cohorte de la Colombie-Britannique afin de prévoir quels seront l'incidence de la SP et son taux de décès. Nous avons également inclus une mesure reposant sur l'utilité (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) qui rend compte des états de santé fonctionnelle afin de réaliser des projections sur la qualité de vie liée à la santé. Enfin, nous avons estimé les paramètres de prestation de soins et de coûts des soins de santé à partir de sondages nationaux du Canada et de données administratives sur la santé et nous les avons inclus comme paramètres dans le modèle visant à évaluer les répercussions économiques et sur la santé des maladies neurologiques. RÉSULTATS: On anticipe une légère augmentation du nombre de cas incidents de SP, passant de 4 051 cas pour 100 000 personnes en 2011 à 4 974 en 2031. Le nombre de Canadiens touchés par la SP passera ainsi de 98 385 en 2001 à 133 635 en 2031. Le coût total des soins de santé par personne (à l'exception des dépenses directes) pour les adultes de 20 ans et plus atteints de SP en 2011 était d'environ 16 800 $, contre un peu moins de 2500 $ pour ceux ne souffrant d'aucune affection neurologique. Si on comptabilise les dépenses supplémentaires liées à la SP (à l'exception des dépenses directes), les coûts totaux annuels de la SP pour le secteur de la santé devraient donc atteindre deux milliards de dollars d'ici 2031. Par ailleurs, les dépenses directes moyennes des personnes atteintes de SP seront d'environ 1300 $ par année tout au long de la période de projection. CONCLUSION: La SP est associée à un important fardeau économique pour la société car elle touche surtout de jeunes adultes à un moment fondateur pour leur vie professionnelle et leur vie familiale. Sa prévalence étant particulièrement élevée au Canada, des recherches comme la nôtre sont essentielles afin de mieux comprendre les répercussions actuelles et futures de la SP sur la population canadienne, afin que les décideurs du réseau de la santé puissent mieux planifier les besoins en soins de santé pour les malades qui en sont atteints. Selon ces résultats, des stratégies pour prévenir la SP et la traiter plus efficacement sont essentielles pour en atténuer les futures répercussions.

Alzheimer's and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence. METHODS: A population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer's and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age. CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.