Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

Associations between air pollution and socioeconomic characteristics, ethnicity and age profile of neighbourhoods in England and the Netherlands.

Air pollution levels are generally believed to be higher in deprived areas but associations are complex especially between sensitive population subgroups. We explore air pollution inequalities at national, regional and city level in England and the Netherlands comparing particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and publicly available population characteristics (deprivation, ethnicity, proportion of children and elderly). We saw higher concentrations in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods in England (1.5 µg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.4 µg/m(3) NO2). Concentrations in both countries were higher in neighbourhoods with >20% non-White (England: 3.0 µg/m(3) higher PM10 and 10.1 µg/m(3) NO2; the Netherlands: 1.1 µg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.5 µg/m(3) NO2) after adjustment for urbanisation and other variables. Associations for some areas differed from the national results. Air pollution inequalities were mainly an urban problem suggesting measures to reduce environmental air pollution inequality should include a focus on city transport.