Summarizing the results and methods of the 2019 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS HIV estimates.

: UNAIDS and other partners provide support to countries to develop estimates of HIV and related indicators on an annual basis. These estimates are used to monitor epidemic trends, guide program planning and resource allocation, and inform policy decision-making. The collection of articles in this AIDS supplement provide the headline results for the 2019 UNAIDS estimates and describe the new developments in the methods used to produce these estimates.

Equity of antiretroviral treatment use in high HIV burden countries: Analyses of data from nationally-representative surveys in Kenya and South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To assess changes and equity in antiretroviral therapy (ART) use in Kenya and South Africa. METHODS: We analysed national population-based household surveys conducted in Kenya and South Africa between 2007 and 2012 for factors associated with lack of ART use among people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 15-64 years. We considered ART use to be inequitable if significant differences in use were found between groups of PLHIV (e.g. by sex). FINDINGS: ART use among PLHIV increased from 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.8-35.8) to 42.5% (95%CI: 37.4-47.7) from 2007 to 2012 in Kenya and 17.4% (95%CI: 14.2-20.9) to 30.3% (95%CI: 27.2-33.6) from 2008 to 2012 in South Africa. In 2012, factors independently associated with lack of ART use among adult Kenyan PLHIV were rural residency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.98, 95%CI: 1.23-3.18), younger age (15-24 years: aOR 4.25, 95%CI: 1.7-10.63, and 25-34 years: aOR 5.16, 95%CI: 2.73-9.74 versus 50-64 years), nondisclosure of HIV status to most recent sex partner (aOR 2.41, 95%CI: 1.27-4.57) and recent recreational drug use (aOR 2.50, 95%CI: 1.09-5.77). Among South African PLHIV in 2012, lack of ART use was significantly associated with younger age (15-24 years: aOR 4.23, 95%CI: 2.56-6.70, and 25-34 years: aOR 2.84, 95%CI: 1.73-4.67, versus 50-64 years), employment status (aOR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.16-2.23 in students versus unemployed), and recent recreational drug use (aOR 4.56, 95%CI: 1.79-11.57). CONCLUSION: Although we found substantial increases in ART use in both countries over time, we identified areas needing improvement including among rural Kenyans, students in South Africa, and among young people and drug users in both countries.

Monitoring HIV Treatment and the Health Sector Cascade: From Treatment Numbers to Impact.

Although not originally part of the MDGs, HIV treatment has been at the center of global HIV reporting since 2003, marked by achievement of the target of 15 million people receiving treatment before 2015 and 18.2 million (16.1-19.0 million) by mid 2016. Monitoring of treatment has been strengthened with harmonized partner reporting and accountability with regular, annual reports. Beyond treatment numbers, increasingly measures of treatment adherence, retention and outcomes have been reported though with varying quality and completeness. However, with the sustainable development goals (SDGs), monitoring treatment is changing in three important ways. First, treatment monitoring is shifting from numbers to coverage and gaps in a cascade of services to achieve universal access. Secondly, this requires greater emphasis on disaggregated, individual level patient and case monitoring systems, which can better support linkage, retention and chronic, long term care. Thirdly, the prevention, testing and treatment cascade with a clear results chain, links treatment numbers to impact, in terms of reduced viral load, mortality and incidence. This agenda will require a greater contribution of routine impact evaluation alongside monitoring, with treatment seen as part of a cascade of services to ensure impact on mortality and incidence. In conclusion, the shift from monitoring treatment numbers to treatment linked to universal access to prevention, testing and treatment and impact on mortality and incidence, will be critical to monitor, evaluate, and improve HIV programs as part of the SDGs.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. METHODS: Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value=0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value=0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value=0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. CONCLUSIONS: In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends.