RESUMO
Purpose: The addition of two years of abemaciclib treatment to standard adjuvant endocrine therapy in all patients with high risk ER+, HER2- early breast cancer (EBC) has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Pre-selection of patients with an immediate risk of recurrence within the group of clinically high risk patients using detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) using patient-informed circulating tumor DNA assays during follow-up could enhance efficacy. Here, we investigate the cost-effectiveness of the addition of two years abemaciclib in all high risk HR+, HER2- patients and in MRD-guided high risk patients only. Methods: Two semi-Markov models were developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding two years of abemaciclib compared to "standard treatment": 1) "abemaciclib all" and 2) "MRD-guided abemaciclib" using MRD-guidance. Data of the MonarchE trial were used to model the invasive disease-free survival (iDFS). Since iDFS and overall survival (OS) data of abemaciclib were currently limited, abemaciclib effects were extrapolated using a favorable, intermediate and unfavorable effect scenario. Results: The addition of abemaciclib in all high-risk EBC patients prolonged iDFS slightly (0.04 additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs)) and led to higher costs compared to standard ET, leading to a high incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 1,551,876/QALY. Neither the favorable effect scenario (additional 1.09 QALYs) was cost-effective (ICER 62,935/QALY), using a willingness-to-pay threshold of 50,000/QALY. The "MRD-guided abemaciclib" strategy resulted in lower costs and an increase in QALYs (1.27) compared to "standard treatment" in the unfavorable effect scenario. Conclusion: The addition of abemaciclib to adjuvant endocrine therapy in all high-risk ER+, HER2- EBC patients is not cost-effective. However, using MRD detection to justify the addition of abemaciclib treatment dominates standard treatment in this cost-effectiveness analysis. Further evaluation of MRD detection in EBC by means of prospective clinical trials assessing clinical utility is recommended and promising in terms of cost-effectiveness.
RESUMO
The increasing number of drugs targeting specific proteins implicated in tumourigenesis and the commercial promotion of relatively affordable genome-wide analyses has led to an increasing expectation among patients with cancer that they can now receive effective personalised treatment based on the often complex genomic signature of their tumour. For such approaches to work in routine practice, the development of correspondingly complex biomarker assays through an appropriate and rigorous regulatory framework will be required. It is becoming increasingly evident that a re-engineering of clinical research is necessary so that regulatory considerations and procedures facilitate the efficient translation of these required biomarker assays from the discovery setting through to clinical application. This article discusses the practical requirements and challenges of developing such new precision medicine strategies, based on leveraging complex genomic profiles, as discussed at the Innovation and Biomarkers in Cancer Drug Development meeting (8th-9th September 2016, Brussels, Belgium).