An Interactive Modeling Tool for Projecting the Health and Direct Medical Cost Impact of Changes in the Sexually Transmitted Diseases Prevention Program Budgets.

CONTEXT: Estimating the return on investment for public health services, tailored to the state level, is critical for demonstrating their value and making resource allocation decisions. However, many health departments have limited staff capacity and expertise to conduct economic analyses in-house. PROGRAM: We developed a user-friendly, interactive Excel-based spreadsheet model that health departments can use to estimate the impact of increases or decreases in sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention funding on the incidence and direct medical costs of chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, and STI-attributable HIV infections. Users tailor results to their jurisdictions by entering the size of their population served; the number of annual STI diagnoses; their prior annual funding amount; and their anticipated new funding amount. The interface was developed using human-centered design principles, including focus groups with 15 model users to collect feedback on an earlier model version and a usability study on the prototype with 6 model users to finalize the interface. IMPLEMENTATION: The STI Prevention Allocation Consequences Estimator ("SPACE Monkey 2.0") model will be publicly available as a free downloadable tool. EVALUATION: In the usability testing of the prototype, participants provided overall positive feedback. They appreciated the clear interpretations, outcomes expressed as direct medical costs, functionalities to interact with the output and copy charts into external applications, visualization designs, and accessible information about the model's assumptions and limitations. Participants provided positive responses to a 10-item usability evaluation survey regarding their experiences with the prototype. DISCUSSION: Modeling tools that synthesize literature-based estimates and are developed with human-centered design principles have the potential to make evidence-based estimates of budget changes widely accessible to health departments.

Variation in Patterns of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Primary and Secondary Syphilis Diagnosis Rates Among Heterosexually Active Women by Region and Age Group in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Syphilis rates have increased substantially over the past decade. Women are an important population because of negative sequalae and adverse maternal outcomes including congenital syphilis. We assessed whether racial and ethnic disparities in primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis among heterosexually active women differ by region and age group. METHODS: We synthesized 4 national surveys to estimate numbers of heterosexually active women in the United States from 2014 to 2018 by region, race and ethnicity, and age group (18-24, 25-29, 30-44, and ≥45 years). We calculated annual P&S syphilis diagnosis rates, assessing disparities with rate differences and rate ratios comparing White, Hispanic, and Black heterosexually active women. RESULTS: Nationally, annual rates were 6.42 and 2.20 times as high among Black and Hispanic than among White heterosexually active women (10.99, 3.77, and 1.71 per 100,000, respectively). Younger women experienced a disproportionate burden of P&S syphilis and the highest disparities. Regionally, the Northeast had the highest Black-White and Hispanic-White disparities using a relative disparity measure (relative rate), and the West had the highest disparities using an absolute disparity measure (rate difference). CONCLUSIONS: To meet the racial and ethnic disparity goals of the Sexually Transmitted Infections National Strategic Plan, tailored local interventions that address the social and structural factors associated with disparities are needed for different age groups.

Racial and ethnic disparities in HIV diagnoses among heterosexually active persons in the United States nationally and by state, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Despite declining HIV infection rates, persistent racial and ethnic disparities remain. Appropriate calculations of diagnosis rates by HIV transmission category, race and ethnicity, and geography are needed to monitor progress towards reducing systematic disparities in health outcomes. We estimated the number of heterosexually active adults (HAAs) by sex and state to calculate appropriate HIV diagnosis rates and disparity measures within subnational regions. METHODS: The analysis included all HIV diagnoses attributed to heterosexual transmission in 2018 in the United States, in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Logistic regression models estimated the probability of past-year heterosexual activity among adults in three national health surveys, by sex, age group, race and ethnicity, education category, and marital status. Model-based probabilities were applied to estimated counts of HAAs by state, which were synthesized through meta-analysis. HIV diagnoses were overlaid to calculate racial- and ethnic-specific rates, rate differences (RDs), and rate ratios (RRs) among HAAs by sex and state. RESULTS: Nationally, HAA women have a two-fold higher HIV diagnosis rate than HAA men (rate per 100,000 HAAs, women: 6.57; men: 3.09). Compared to White non-Hispanic HAAs, Black HAAs have a 20-fold higher HIV diagnosis rate (RR, men: 21.28, women: 19.55; RD, men: 15.40, women: 31.78) and Hispanic HAAs have a 4-fold higher HIV diagnosis rate (RR, men: 4.68, RD, women: 4.15; RD, men: 2.79, RD, women: 5.39). Disparities were ubiquitous across regions, with >75% of states in each region having Black-to-White RR ≥10. CONCLUSION: The racial and ethnic disparities across regions suggests a system-wide failure particularly with respect to preventing HIV among Black and Hispanic women. Pervasive disparities emphasize the role for coordinated federal responses such as the current Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative.

A Rapid Review of the Impact of Systems-Level Policies and Interventions on Population-Level Outcomes Related to the Opioid Epidemic, United States and Canada, 2014-2018.

OBJECTIVES: In the United States, rising rates of overdose deaths and recent outbreaks of hepatitis C virus and HIV infection are associated with injection drug use. We updated a 2014 review of systems-level opioid policy interventions by focusing on evidence published during 2014-2018 and new and expanded opioid policies. METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE database, consistent with the 2014 review. We included articles that provided original empirical evidence on the effects of systems-level interventions on opioid use, overdose, or death; were from the United States or Canada; had a clear comparison group; and were published from January 1, 2014, through July 19, 2018. Two raters screened articles and extracted full-text data for qualitative synthesis of consistent or contradictory findings across studies. Given the rapidly evolving field, the review was supplemented with a search of additional articles through November 17, 2019, to assess consistency of more recent findings. RESULTS: The keyword search yielded 535 studies, 66 of which met inclusion criteria. The most studied interventions were prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) (59.1%), and the least studied interventions were clinical guideline changes (7.6%). The most common outcome was opioid use (77.3%). Few articles evaluated combination interventions (18.2%). Study findings included the following: PDMP effectiveness depends on policy design, with robust PDMPs needed for impact; health insurer and pharmacy benefit management strategies, pill-mill laws, pain clinic regulations, and patient/health care provider educational interventions reduced inappropriate prescribing; and marijuana laws led to a decrease in adverse opioid-related outcomes. Naloxone distribution programs were understudied, and evidence of their effectiveness was mixed. In the evidence published after our search's 4-year window, findings on opioid guidelines and education were consistent and findings for other policies differed. CONCLUSIONS: Although robust PDMPs and marijuana laws are promising, they do not target all outcomes, and multipronged interventions are needed. Future research should address marijuana laws, harm-reduction interventions, health insurer policies, patient/health care provider education, and the effects of simultaneous interventions on opioid-related outcomes.

Ending the HIV Epidemic: New York's Quest to Become the First State to Reduce HIV Prevalence.

In 2014, New York State became the first jurisdiction to launch a statewide initiative to end AIDS by reducing the number of persons living with HIV for the first time since effective HIV treatment became available. The Ending the Epidemic (ETE) initiative encompasses (1) identifying and linking undiagnosed persons with HIV to care, (2) retaining persons with HIV in care, and (3) facilitating access to preexposure prophylaxis for persons at risk for acquiring HIV. We used a framework for public health program implementation to describe key characteristics of the ETE initiative, present progress toward 13 ETE target metrics, and identify areas in need of increased programming. We provide evidence suggesting that New York State is on track to end AIDS as an epidemic by the end of 2020. As of 2017, 76% of progress toward our primary ETE target had been achieved. Substantial progress on several additional metrics critical to decreasing HIV prevalence and to improving the health of persons living with HIV had also been achieved. Lessons learned included the following: (1) ETE-based programming should be tailored to each jurisdiction's unique political and social climate, HIV epidemiology, fiscal resources, and network of HIV service providers; (2) key stakeholders should be involved in developing ETE metrics and setting targets; (3) performance-based measurement and timely communication to key stakeholders in real time are essential; and (4) examining trends in HIV prevention and care metrics is important for developing realistic ETE timelines.

Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies. METHODS: A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment. RESULTS: Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes. CONCLUSIONS: New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.

Association of US Households' Disaster Preparedness With Socioeconomic Characteristics, Composition, and Region.

Importance: Since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the US government has promoted household disaster preparedness, but preparedness remains low. Objective: To identify disparities in disaster preparedness among US households. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from a nationally representative sample of US households from the 2017 American Housing Survey's topical section on preparedness to assess associations of disaster preparedness with households' socioeconomic characteristics, composition, and region. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations of household characteristics with overall preparedness, resource- and action-based preparedness, and specific preparedness items. Data analyses were completed on March 27, 2020. Exposures: Combined household income, head of household's education level, race/ethnicity, marital status of head of household, head of household aged 65 years or older, presence of children or a household member with a disability, and region. Main Outcomes and Measures: Nine actionable preparedness items, such as having an emergency carry-on kit (resource), food and water stockpiles (resource), and alternative communication plans and meeting locations (action). Items were summed for the measures of overall, resource-based, and action-based preparedness, with preparedness defined as meeting at least half of the criteria. Results: Among 16 725 included households, 9103 household heads were men (54.4%), 11 687 were married (69.9%), and 10 749 (66.1%) had some college education or higher. In all, 1969 household heads (11.8%) were black, while 2696 were Hispanic/Latino (16.1%); 3579 household heads (21.4%) were 65 years or older. A total of 7163 households (42.8%) included children, and 3533 households (21.2%) included a person with a disability. Households were more likely to fulfill at least half of the criteria for resource-based preparedness (10 950 households [65.5%]) than for action-based preparedness (6876 households [41.1%]). Wealthy households and those with household heads aged 65 years or older were more likely to fulfill at least half of resource-based items (wealthy households: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] by logged income, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.13-1.22]; household heads age ≥65 years: aOR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.29-1.55) but less likely to fulfill action-based items (wealthy households: aOR: 0.96 [95% CI, 0.93-0.99]; household heads age ≥65 years: aOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.84-0.99]). Households with black household heads were more likely to fulfill items directly related to emergencies (carry-on emergency kit: aOR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.14-1.39]; alternative communication plan: aOR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.39-1.72]; alternative meeting location: aOR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.07-1.31]) but less likely to fulfill resource-based items (at least half of resource items: aOR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.99]). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that types of preparedness vary by household characteristics. Targeted strategies are needed to promote preparedness across communities.

Changes in Sugary Beverage Consumption and Public Perceptions in Upstate New York After Implementation of a Community Awareness Campaign and Healthier Vending Strategies.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the impact of a community-based healthy beverage procurement and serving practices program, and educational media campaign, on residents' behaviors and beliefs regarding sugary beverages. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional population surveys in 2013 and 2014 were conducted, as well as semistructured interviews with key informants. We employed multivariate differences-in-differences regression analysis, adjusting for demographics and weight status, using the survey data. Key informant interviews were reviewed for common themes. SETTING: Three rural counties in upstate New York with high prevalence of children living in poverty and childhood obesity. PARTICIPANTS: Residents of Broome, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua, with Chemung as a control, reached through cross-sectional random-digit-dial landline and cellular telephones, and practitioners involved in intervention implementation. INTERVENTION: Community organizations were encouraged through presentations to leadership to adopt healthier vending policies, providing more low- and no-sugar options, and were provided assistance with implementation. In addition, a media campaign supported by presentations to the public aimed to educate residents regarding the health consequences of sugary beverage consumption. OUTCOME MEASURES: The survey measured population demographics and sugary beverage consumption frequency, availability, beliefs about harmfulness, and support for regulation, pre- and postintervention. Key informant interviews elicited perceived program challenges and successes. RESULTS: Compared with temporal trends in the control county, availability of regular soda in the intervention counties decreased (differences-in-differences estimator: ß = -.341, P = .04) and support for regulation increased (differences-in-differences estimator: ß = .162, P = .02). However, there were no differences regarding beliefs about harmfulness or consumption. Practitioners confirmed that the intervention increased awareness but was insufficient to spur action. CONCLUSION: Although public education on the harmfulness of sugary beverages and provision of healthier options in some vending machines successfully impacted soda availability and support for regulation, it did not reduce consumption. This intervention seems promising but should be paired with other community-based interventions for a more comprehensive approach.

Distributing Local Resources for Public Health Preparedness Grants: A Data-Driven Approach.

OBJECTIVES: To simulate allocations of Public Health Emergency Preparedness funds to counties using alternative metrics of need, minimum allocation amounts, and the proportion earmarked for discretionary considerations. DESIGN: We developed a county-level community resilience index of 57 New York State counties using publicly available indicators, which we incorporated into an interactive spreadsheet of 8 hypothetical allocation formulas with different combinations of population size, the index and its 5 domains, and population density. Simulations were compared with the 2013-2014 fiscal year grant allocation. RESULTS: New York allocated $6.27 million to counties outside New York City, with a median allocation of $78 038, ranging from $50 825 to $556 789. These allocations would vary under different strategies, with the largest changes among sparsely populated counties that currently receive a minimum allocation of $50 825. Allocations were sensitive to changes in minimum allocation, amount earmarked for discretionary allocation, and need indicator. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based approaches are commonly used but ignore important dimensions of need. It is feasible to include robust local community resilience measures in formulas, and interactive spreadsheet models can help stakeholders evaluate the consequences of alternative funding strategies.

Suboptimal geographic accessibility to comprehensive HIV care in the US: regional and urban-rural differences.

Achieving US state and municipal benchmarks to end the HIV epidemic and promote health equity requires access to comprehensive HIV care. However, this care may not be geographically accessible for all people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated county-level drive time and suboptimal geographic accessibility to HIV care across the contiguous US, assessing regional and urban-rural differences. We integrated publicly available data from four federal databases to identify and geocode sites providing comprehensive HIV care in 2015, defined as the co-located provision of core HIV medical care and support services. Leveraging street network, US Census and HIV surveillance data (2014), we used geographic analysis to estimate the fastest one-way drive time between the population-weighted county centroid and the nearest site providing HIV care for counties reporting at least five diagnosed HIV cases. We summarized HIV care sites, county-level drive time, population-weighted drive time and suboptimal geographic accessibility to HIV care, by US region and county rurality (2013). Geographic accessibility to HIV care was suboptimal if drive time was >30 min, a common threshold for primary care accessibility in the general US population. Tests of statistical significance were not performed, since the analysis is population-based. We identified 671 HIV care sites across the US, with 95% in urban counties. Nationwide, the median county-level drive time to HIV care is 69 min (interquartile range (IQR) 66 min). The median county-level drive time to HIV care for rural counties (90 min, IQR 61) is over twice that of urban counties (40 min, IQR 48), with the greatest urban-rural differences in the West. Nationally, population-weighted drive time, an approximation of individual-level drive time, is over five times longer in rural counties than in urban counties. Geographic access to HIV care is suboptimal for over 170,000 people diagnosed with HIV (19%), with over half of these individuals from the South and disproportionately the rural South. Nationally, approximately 80,000 (9%) drive over an hour to receive HIV care. Suboptimal geographic accessibility to HIV care is an important structural barrier in the US, particularly for rural residents living with HIV in the South and West. Targeted policies and interventions to address this challenge should become a priority.

Strategies for Improving Hepatitis C Treatment Access in the United States: State Officials Address High Drug Prices, Stigma, and Building Treatment Capacity.

CONTEXT: Curative treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV) can alter the course of a devastating epidemic, but high drug prices have contributed to restrictions on HCV treatment access. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to learn how state health agencies have responded to the challenges of treatment access for HCV. DESIGN: Qualitative study using semistructured key informant interviews focused on aspects of HCV treatment access between June 2016 and March 2017. Content analysis was used to identify dominant themes. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Eighteen health officials and treatment advocates across 6 states selected using purposive sampling. RESULTS: Drug pricing is the most important barrier to access, encouraging restrictive authorization criteria from payers that in turn discourage providers from offering treatment. However, payers have not experienced the budget impact that was initially feared. Although authorization criteria are being lifted for fee-for-service Medicaid programs, ensuring that managed care organizations follow suit remains a challenge. The effect of stigma, a shortage of treating providers, and lack of political motivation are additional challenges to expanding treatment. The response to the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic can augment or inform strategies for HCV treatment delivery, but this is limited by the absence of dedicated funding. CONCLUSIONS: While treatment eligibility criteria for HCV treatment are improving, many other barriers remain to achieving the scale-up needed to end the epidemic. Political disinterest, stigma, and a lack of specialty providers are continued barriers in some jurisdictions. States may need to invest in strategies to overcome these barriers, such as engaging in public and provider education and ensuring that treatment by primary care providers is reimbursed. Despite uncertainty about how federal policy changes to Medicaid may affect states' ability to respond, states can identify opportunities to improve access.

Economic and Policy Analytic Approaches to Inform the Acceleration of HIV Prevention in the United States: Future Directions for the Field.

The fields of economic and policy analysis have long played a role in quantifying the burden of the HIV epidemic and informing how to best deploy interventions and policies aimed at maximizing HIV care and reducing transmission. Looking towards the ultimate goal of ending the AIDS epidemic, we describe five areas for further development and application towards HIV policies: (1) setting measurable objectives to create a vision and monitor progress, (2) taking a health and wellness approach to goal-setting, (3) using impact matrices to inform quantitative analysis to explicitly address health disparities, (4) conducting budget impact analyses to project annual program costs and benefits, and (5) advancing the public health systems and services research agenda.

Geographic Disparities in Access to Nursing Home Services: Assessing Fiscal Stress and Quality of Care.

OBJECTIVE: We test whether nursing homes serving predominately low-income and racial minority residents (compositional explanation) or located in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of low-income and racial minority residents (contextual explanation) have worse financial outcomes and care quality. DATA SOURCES: Healthcare Cost Report Information System, Nursing Home Compare, Online Survey Certification and Reporting Certification, and American Community Survey. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study design of nursing homes within U.S. metropolitan areas. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data were obtained from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and U.S. Census Bureau. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicaid-dependent nursing homes have a 3.5 percentage point lower operating ratio. Those serving primarily racial minorities have a 2.64-point lower quality rating. A 1 percent increase in the neighborhood population living in poverty is associated with a 1.20-point lower quality rating, on a scale from 10 to 50, and a 1 percent increase in the portion of neighborhood black residents is associated with a 0.8 percentage point lower operating ratio and a 0.37 lower quality rating. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid dependency (compositional effect) and concentration of racial minority residents in neighborhoods (contextual effect) are associated with higher fiscal stress and lower quality of care, indicating that nursing homes' geographic location may exacerbate long-term care inequalities.

Cost Analysis and Performance Assessment of Partner Services for Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Sexually Transmitted Diseases, New York State, 2014.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the programmatic costs of partner services for HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydial infection. STUDY SETTING: New York State and local health departments conducting partner services activities in 2014. STUDY DESIGN: A cost analysis estimated, from the state perspective, total program costs and cost per case assignment, patient interview, partner notification, and disease-specific key performance indicator. DATA COLLECTION: Data came from contracts, a time study of staff effort, and statewide surveillance systems. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Disease-specific costs per case assignment (mean: $580; range: $502-$1,111), patient interview ($703; $608-$1,609), partner notification ($1,169; $950-$1,936), and key performance indicator ($2,697; $1,666-$20,255) varied across diseases. Most costs (79 percent) were devoted to gonorrhea and chlamydial infection investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Cost analysis complements cost-effectiveness analysis in evaluating program performance and guiding improvements.

Opening government health data to the public: benefits, challenges, and lessons learned from early innovators.

Objective: Government agencies are rapidly developing web portals to proactively publish "open" data that are searchable, available in nonproprietary formats, and with unlimited use and distribution rights. In this dynamic environment, we aimed to understand the experiences of 2 early leaders in open health data, the US Department of Health and Human Services and the New York State Department of Health. Materials and Methods: Semistructured interviews with 40 practitioners and policymakers elicited value propositions, capabilities required for successful open data programs, and strategies for improving impact and sustainability. Transcripts were analyzed using a grounded theory approach to identify common perspectives and divergent viewpoints. Results: Respondents were optimistic about the value of open data, reporting numerous opportunities to advance the triple aim of lower costs, improved health care quality, and better population health. Benefits to agencies include enhanced data quality and more efficient operations. External benefits include improved health literacy, data-driven changes in health care delivery, consumer engagement, and community empowerment. Key challenges are resources, cultural resistance, navigating legal and regulatory issues, and data quality. Discussion: The open data movement will likely continue, but success requires sustained leadership, resources, organizational cultural change, promotion of data use, and governance. Jurisdictions that are initiating open data programs can incorporate these lessons from early innovators. Conclusions: The open data movement has a bright future but unknown long-term impact. To maintain momentum, important directions for the field include reconsidering legal guidance on protecting health data in the open data era and quantifying the return on investment.