Trade policy reform, retail food prices and access to healthy diets worldwide.

Recent use of least-cost diets as a measure of global food security revealed that over 3 billion people are unable to afford sufficient nutritious food for an active and healthy life, driving demand for policy changes to improve access and affordability. This study quantifies the role of imports in consumer prices, matching retail prices in 144 countries to imports by origin of the item or its main ingredient, resulting in a total of 13,846 pairs of a retail price and its import cost in 2017. We find that 55% of retail items had some active imports supplementing domestic production, and of those around 48% have nonzero tariffs whose average effective rate is around 6.7% of the imported commodity price. Over all countries for which data are available, the share of consumer prices for least-cost healthy diets that is attributable to tariffs and non-tariff measures averages 0.67% and 2.45% globally. The highest restrictions are on nutrient-rich vegetables, fruits and animal-sourced foods. Access to bulk commodities from diverse origins is essential for food and nutrition security, providing a greater diversity of foods and food ingredients at lower and more stable prices than can be grown at any one location. On average over all food products that are imported, 83% of the retail price is domestic value added after arrival. We conclude that food imports are best understood as inputs to the domestic production and distribution of retail items, with consumer prices and growth of the food sector dependent on the cost levels, infrastructure and institutions underlying each product's entire value chain.

COVID-19 mobility restrictions and stay-at-home behaviour in 2020 were associated with higher retail food prices worldwide.

COVID-19 policy responses have included mobility restrictions, and many people have chosen to stay at home to avoid exposure. These actions have ambiguous impacts on food prices, lowering demand for food away from home and perishables, while increasing supply costs for items where workers are most affected by the pandemic. We use evidence from 160 countries to identify the net direction and magnitude of association between countries' real cost of all food and mobility restriction stringency. We investigate the deviation of each month's price level in 2020 from that month's average price level during the previous three years and find that an increase in mobility restriction stringency from no restrictions to most restrictive is associated with an increase in the real cost of all food of more than one percentage point across all models. We then examine the relationship between retail food price levels by food group and stay-at-home behaviour around markets in 36 countries and find positive associations for non-perishables, dairy and eggs.

Beyond the Food Systems Summit: Linking Recommendations to Action-The True Cost of Food.

A transformation of food systems is needed to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals specified in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Recognizing the true costs and benefits of food production and consumption can help guide public policy decisions to effectively transform food systems in support of sustainable healthy diets. A new, expanded framework is presented that allows the quantification of costs and benefits in three domains: health, environmental, and social. The implications for policy makers are discussed. Curr Dev Nutr 2023;x:xx.

A collective call to strengthen monitoring and evaluation efforts to support healthy and sustainable food systems: 'The Accountability Pact'.

There is widespread agreement among experts that a fundamental reorientation of global, regional, national and local food systems is needed to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals Agenda and address the linked challenges of undernutrition, obesity and climate change described as the Global Syndemic. Recognising the urgency of this imperative, a wide range of global stakeholders - governments, civil society, academia, agri-food industry, business leaders and donors - convened at the September 2021 UN Food Systems Summit to coordinate numerous statements, commitments and declarations for action to transform food systems. As the dust settles, how will they be pieced together, how will governments and food corporations be held to account and by whom? New data, analytical methods and global coalitions have created an opportunity and a need for those working in food systems monitoring to scale up and connect their efforts in order to inform and strengthen accountability actions for food systems. To this end, we present - and encourage stakeholders to join or support - an Accountability Pact to catalyse an evidence-informed transformation of current food systems to promote human and ecological health and wellbeing, social equity and economic prosperity.

Global variation in the cost of a nutrient-adequate diet by population group: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Nutrient deficiencies limit human development and could be caused by the high cost of locally available foods needed to meet nutrient requirements. We aimed to identify the populations whose nutrient needs are most difficult to meet with existing global food systems. METHODS: In this observational study, we used the International Comparison Program 2017 collection of global food prices to measure cost per day and cost per calorie of meeting nutrient needs, based on least-cost diets within upper and lower bounds for energy and 20 nutrients for healthy populations across 20 demographic groups in 172 countries. We then analysed the composition of these least-cost diets by food groups to estimate how the affordability of foods for meeting nutrient needs varied by age, sex, and reproductive status. FINDINGS: In 2017, the global median of diet costs per day was US$2·32 (IQR 1·95-2·76), with cost highest for adolescent boys aged 14-18 years at $2·72 (2·31-3·15). For females, median cost was highest for adolescents aged 14-18 years during pregnancy and lactation at $2·64 (2·29-3·15), exceeding the cost for adult men aged 19-30 years. The global median of diet cost per 1000 kcal was $0·94 (IQR 0·80-1·12), and was higher for females throughout the life course than for males, peaking for adolescent girls aged 9-13 years ($1·17 [95% CI 1·15-1·19]) and women older than 70 years ($1·18 [1·17-1·19]). Diet costs were most sensitive to requirements for calcium, iron, zinc, and vitamins C and E, as well as the upper bounds on carbohydrates and sodium. Total diet costs per day did not vary significantly with national income; however, in high-income countries, the composition of least-cost diets included more animal-source foods, whereas in low-income countries, diets with more pulses, nuts and seeds, and fruits and vegetables provided the most affordable way to meet nutrient requirements. INTERPRETATION: Diets with adequate nutrients were unaffordable for many demographic groups, especially women and girls. These results could help to guide agriculture and food policy or transfer programmes to support populations at risk of inadequate intake. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UKAid.

Sustainable food systems and nutrition in the 21st century: a report from the 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium.

Food systems are at the center of a brewing storm consisting of a rapidly changing climate, rising hunger and malnutrition, and significant social inequities. At the same time, there are vast opportunities to ensure that food systems produce healthy and safe food in equitable ways that promote environmental sustainability, especially if the world can come together at the UN Food Systems Summit in late 2021 and make strong and binding commitments toward food system transformation. The NIH-funded Nutrition Obesity Research Center at Harvard and the Harvard Medical School Division of Nutrition held their 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium entitled "Global Food Systems and Sustainable Nutrition in the 21st Century" in June 2021. This article presents a synthesis of this symposium and highlights the importance of food systems to addressing the burden of malnutrition and noncommunicable diseases, climate change, and the related economic and social inequities. Transformation of food systems is possible, and the nutrition and health communities have a significant role to play in this transformative process.

Retail prices of nutritious food rose more in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts.

The COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed lives and livelihoods, leading to price spikes for some foods and declines for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 181 countries from January 2019 to June 2021, test for differences over time and find that average prices rose significantly, especially for more nutritious food groups in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts. Analysis of retail prices by food group complements data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, helping to guide policy for resilience and response to shocks.

Beyond price and income: Preferences and food values in peri-urban Viet Nam.

Sub-optimal diets are one of the most important risk factors contributing to the global burden of disease. Developing a better understanding of the drivers of food choice, including the role of individual preferences, is important to address this issue. The objective of this mixed methods research was to identify the relative importance of preferences for different food quality attributes (e.g. nutrition, food safety, price and convenience) that might influence shopping habits and food choice in the context of a rapidly changing peri-urban food environment in Hanoi Province, Viet Nam. A total of 264 women were randomly selected and interviewed using Best-Worst Scaling to elicit preferences among food quality attributes for different food groups (leafy green vegetables, fruits, instant foods, snack foods). A subset of these respondents (n = 40) participated in focus group discussions in order to explore their preferences and food values in more detail. The food quality attributes considered to be most important varied by food group with nutrition and food safety (both immediate and future health) ranking highest for leafy green vegetables and fruits, convenience for instant foods, and taste for snack foods. Price was considered least important across all food groups. Focus group discussions reinforced these results with additional insights particularly regarding trade-offs between nutrition, food safety, convenience, and price. This research demonstrates the feasibility of identifying important drivers of consumption in a South East Asian context using Best-Worst Scaling. These results could help inform the design of behavior change interventions and guide food system policies that seek to shift consumer choices towards healthier diets.

Modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of food-based programs to reduce malnutrition.

Poor quality diets contribute to malnutrition globally, but evidence is weak on the cost-effectiveness of food-based interventions that shift diets. This study assessed 11 candidate interventions developed through Delphi techniques to improve diets in India, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. A Markov simulation model incorporated time, individual-level, nutrition, and policy parameters to estimate health impacts and cost-effectiveness for reducing stunting, anaemia, diarrhea, and mortality in preschool children. At an assumed 80% coverage, interventions considered would potentially save between 0·16 and 3·20 years of life per child. The average cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from US$9 to US$2000 per life year saved. This approach, linking expert knowledge, known costs, and modelling, offers potential for estimating cost-effective investments for better informed policy choice where empirical evidence is limited.

Global dietary convergence from 1970 to 2010, despite inequality in agriculture, leaves undernutrition concentrated in a few countries.

Humans globally have similar nutritional needs but face large differences in natural resource endowments and local food production. This study quantifies food system inequality across countries based on natural resource inputs, food/nutrient outputs, and nutrition/health outcomes, from 1970 to 2010. Animal source foods and overweight/obesity show rapid convergence while availability of selected micronutrients demonstrate slower convergence. However, all variables are more equally distributed than national income per capita, whose Gini coefficient declined from 0·71 to 0·65. Inequalities in total and animal-source dietary energy declined from 0·16 to 0·10 and 0·55 to 0·36, respectively. There was convergence in overweight/obesity prevalence from 0·39 to 0·27, while undernutrition and stunting became increasingly concentrated in a few high-burden countries. Characterizing cross-country inequalities in agricultural resources, foods, nutrients, and health can help identify critical opportunities for agriculture and food policies, as well as prioritize research objectives and funding allocation for the coming decade.

Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: Evidence from 177 countries.

Many policies and programs aim to bring nutritious diets within reach of the poor. This paper uses retail prices and nutrient composition for 671 foods and beverages to compute the daily cost of essential nutrients required for an active and healthy life in 177 countries around the world. We compare this minimum cost of nutrient adequacy with the subsistence cost of dietary energy and per-capita spending on all goods and services, to identify stylized facts about how diet cost and affordability relate to economic development and nutrition outcomes. On average, the most affordable nutrient adequate diet exceeds the cost of adequate energy by a factor of 2.66, costing US$1.35 per day to meet median requirements of healthy adult women in 2011. Affordability is lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The sensitivity of diet costs to each requirement reveals the high cost of staying within acceptable macronutrient ranges, particularly the upper limit for carbohydrates. Among micronutrients, total diet costs are most sensitive to requirements for calcium as well as vitamins A, C, E, B12, folate and riboflavin. On average, about 5% of dietary energy in the least-cost nutrient adequate diets is derived from animal source foods, with small quantities of meat and fish. Over 70% of all animal products in least-cost diets is eggs and dairy, but only in upper-middle and high-income countries. In lower income countries where egg and dairy prices are significantly higher, they are replaced by larger volumes of vegetal foods. When controlling for national income, diet costs are most significantly correlated with rural travel times and rural electrification. These data suggest opportunities for targeted policies and programs that reduce market prices and the cost of nutritious diets, while improving affordability through nutrition assistance, safety nets and higher earnings among low-income households.

Seasonality of diet costs reveals food system performance in East Africa.

Seasonal fluctuations in food prices reflect interactions between climate and society, measuring the degree to which predictable patterns of crop growth and harvest are offset by storage and trade. Previous research on seasonality in food systems has focused on specific commodities. This study accounts for substitution between items to meet nutritional needs, computing seasonal variation in local food environments using monthly retail prices for 191 items across Ethiopia, Malawi, and Tanzania from 2002 through 2016. We computed over 25,000 least-cost diets meeting nutrient requirements at each market every month and then measured the magnitude and timing of seasonality in diet costs. We found significant intensity in Malawi, Tanzania, and Ethiopia (10.0, 6.3, and 4.0%, respectively), driven primarily by synchronized price rises for nutrient-dense foods. Results provide a metric to map nutritional security, pointing to opportunities for more targeted investments to improve the year-round delivery of nutrients.

Can shorter mothers have taller children? Nutritional mobility, health equity and the intergenerational transmission of relative height.

This study develops the concept of nutritional mobility, defined here as the probability that a mother ranked low in her cohort's height distribution will have a child who attains a higher rank order. We demonstrate that rank-order regression provides a robust metric of health equity, revealing differences in opportunities for each child to reach their own growth potential. We estimate four indicators of nutritional mobility and test for associations between nutritional mobility and various local economic and environmental factors. Nutritional mobility has improved over time, and the nutrition environment contributes about 2.86 times as much as a mother's height to her child's expected rank in height-for-age. Populations with the least mobility are in Latin America, and the most mobility is in more urbanized areas of Africa and Asia. Rank-order mobility is an important aspect of health equity, offering valuable insight into the role of socioecological factors in nutrition improvement across generations.

Affordability of the EAT-Lancet reference diet: a global analysis.

BACKGROUND: The EAT-Lancet Commission drew on all available nutritional and environmental evidence to construct the first global benchmark diet capable of sustaining health and protecting the planet, but it did not assess dietary affordability. We used food price and household income data to estimate affordability of EAT-Lancet benchmark diets, as a first step to guiding interventions to improve diets around the world. METHODS: We obtained retail prices from 2011 for 744 foods in 159 countries, collected under the International Comparison Program. We used these data to identify the most affordable foods to meet EAT-Lancet targets. We compared total diet cost per day to each country's mean per capita household income, calculated the proportion of people for whom the most affordable EAT-Lancet diet exceeds total income, and also measured affordability relative to a least-cost diet that meets essential nutrient requirements. FINDINGS: The most affordable EAT-Lancet diets cost a global median of US$2·84 per day (IQR 2·41-3·16) in 2011, of which the largest share was the cost of fruits and vegetables (31·2%), followed by legumes and nuts (18·7%), meat, eggs, and fish (15·2%), and dairy (13·2%). This diet costs a small fraction of average incomes in high-income countries but is not affordable for the world's poor. We estimated that the cost of an EAT-Lancet diet exceeded household per capita income for at least 1·58 billion people. The EAT-Lancet diet is also more expensive than the minimum cost of nutrient adequacy, on average, by a mean factor of 1·60 (IQR 1·41-1·78). INTERPRETATION: Current diets differ greatly from EAT-Lancet targets. Improving diets is affordable in many countries but for many people would require some combination of higher income, nutritional assistance, and lower prices. Data and analysis for the cost of healthier foods are needed to inform both local interventions and systemic changes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Education and micronutrient deficiencies: an ecological study exploring interactions between women's schooling and children's micronutrient status.

BACKGROUND: Formal education can be a nutrition-sensitive intervention that supports the scale-up and impact of nutrition-specific actions. Maternal education has long been linked to child survival, growth, and development while adult earnings and nutrition are tied to years in school as a child. However, less is known about the relationship between maternal education and the micronutrient status of children, women and the general population. METHODS: Using country-level data and an ecological study design, we explored the global associations between women's educational attainment and: a) anemia and vitamin A deficiency (VAD) in children aged 6-59 months; b) anemia in non-pregnant women; and c) zinc deficiency, urinary iodine excretion (UIE), and the proportion of infants protected against iodine deficiency in the general population Cross-sectional relationships (2005-2013) were assessed using linear regression models. RESULTS: Percentage of women without schooling was negatively associated with all outcomes. Number of years of schooling among women was positively associated with all outcomes except for UIE and the proportion of infants protected against iodine deficiency. Income level was a significant effect modifier of the effect of years of women's schooling on child anemia as well as of the proportion of women without formal education on zinc deficiency in the population. The relationship was strongest in low-income countries for child anemia, and was not significant in upper middle-income countries. For zinc deficiency, the relationship was not significant in low or lower middle income countries, which may suggest that a minimum threshold of resources needs to be reached before education can influence zinc status. CONCLUSIONS: While relationships between maternal schooling and micronutrient outcomes vary around the globe, more schooling is generally linked to lower rates of deficiency. These findings draw policy-relevant connections between formal education and anemia and micronutrient status globally. It is necessary to examine the mechanisms through which this relationship may be working at both household and country level.

Designing programs to improve diets for maternal and child health: estimating costs and potential dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and India.

Improving maternal and child nutrition in resource-poor settings requires effective use of limited resources, but priority-setting is constrained by limited information about program costs and impacts, especially for interventions designed to improve diet quality. This study utilized a mixed methods approach to identify, describe and estimate the potential costs and impacts on child dietary intake of 12 nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria and India. These potential interventions included conditional livestock and cash transfers, media and education, complementary food processing and sales, household production and food pricing programs. Components and costs of each program were identified through a novel participatory process of expert regional consultation followed by validation and calibration from literature searches and comparison with actual budgets. Impacts on child diets were determined by estimating of the magnitude of economic mechanisms for dietary change, comprehensive reviews of evaluations and effectiveness for similar programs, and demographic data on each country. Across the 12 programs, total cost per child reached (net present value, purchasing power parity adjusted) ranged very widely: from 0.58 to 2650 USD/year among five programs in Ethiopia; 2.62 to 1919 USD/year among four programs in Nigeria; and 27 to 586 USD/year among three programs in India. When impacts were assessed, the largest dietary improvements were for iron and zinc intakes from a complementary food production program in Ethiopia (increases of 17.7 mg iron/child/day and 7.4 mg zinc/child/day), vitamin A intake from a household animal and horticulture production program in Nigeria (335 RAE/child/day), and animal protein intake from a complementary food processing program in Nigeria (20.0 g/child/day). These results add substantial value to the limited literature on the costs and dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive interventions targeting children in resource-limited settings, informing policy discussions and serving as critical inputs to future cost-effectiveness analyses focusing on disease outcomes.

Measuring the Affordability of Nutritious Diets in Africa: Price Indexes for Diet Diversity and the Cost of Nutrient Adequacy.

Policies and programs often aim to improve the affordability of nutritious diets, but existing food price indexes are based on observed quantities that may not meet nutritional goals. To measure changes in the cost of reaching international standards of diet quality, we introduce a new cost of diet diversity index based on the lowest-cost way to include at least five different food groups as defined by the widely used minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) indicator and compare that to a Cost of Nutrient Adequacy indicator for the lowest-cost way to meet estimated average requirements of essential nutrients and dietary energy. We demonstrate application of both indexes using national average monthly prices from two very different sources: an agricultural market information system in Ghana (2009-14) and the data used for national consumer price indexes in Tanzania (2011-15). We find that the cost of diet diversity index for Ghana fluctuated seasonally and since mid-2010 rose about 10% per year faster than national inflation, due to rising relative prices for fruit, which also drove up the cost of nutrient adequacy. In Tanzania there were much smaller changes in total daily costs, but more adjustment in the mix of food groups used for the least-cost diet. These methods can show where and when nutritious diets are increasingly (un)affordable, and which nutritional criteria account for the change. These results are based on monthly national average prices, but the method is generalizable to other contexts for monitoring, evaluation, and assessment of changing food environments. JEL codes: I15, Q11, Q18.

Impact of caregiver incentives on child health: Evidence from an experiment with Anganwadi workers in India.

This paper tests the effectiveness of performance pay and bonuses among government childcare workers in India. In a controlled study of 160 ICDS centers serving over 4000 children, we randomly assign workers to either fixed bonuses or payments based on the nutritional status of children in their care, and also collect data from a control group receiving only standard salaries. In all three study arms mothers receive nutrition information. We find that performance pay reduces underweight prevalence by about 5 percentage points over 3 months, and height improves by about one centimeter. Impacts on weight continue when incentives are renewed and return to parallel trends thereafter. Fixed bonuses are less expensive but lead to smaller and less precisely estimated effects than performance pay, especially for children near malnutrition thresholds. Both treatments improve worker effort and communication with mothers, who in turn feed a more calorific diet to children at home.

Nutrition Smoothing: Can Proximity to Towns and Cities Protect Rural Children against Seasonal Variation in Agroclimatic Conditions at Birth?

A large literature links early-life environmental shocks to later outcomes. This paper uses seasonal variation across the Democratic Republic of the Congo to test for nutrition smoothing, defined here as attaining similar height, weight and mortality outcomes despite different agroclimatic conditions at birth. We find that gaps between siblings and neighbors born at different times of year are larger in more remote rural areas, farther from the equator where there are greater seasonal differences in rainfall and temperature. For those born at adverse times in places with pronounced seasonality, the gains associated with above-median proximity to nearby towns are similar to rising one quintile in the national distribution of household wealth for mortality, and two quintiles for attained height. Smoothing of outcomes could involve a variety of mechanisms to be addressed in future work, including access to food markets, health services, public assistance and temporary migration to achieve more uniform dietary intake, or less exposure and improved recovery from seasonal diseases.