High-Suspicion Subcentimeter Thyroid Nodules: Cost Effectiveness of Active Surveillance versus Fine Needle Aspiration.

PURPOSE: To compare the cost-benefit of active surveillance (AS) against immediate fine needle aspiration (FNA) of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-benefit of 3 strategies from the point of discovery until death: (a) Surveillance of all nodules, (b) Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology, and (c) Surgery of nodules with positive cytology. The reference case was a 40-year-old woman with a sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodule. Transition probabilities, costs, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology dominated in the reference scenario and was cost-beneficial over Surveillance of all nodules, independent of the utility of AS. Surveillance of all nodules was cost-beneficial only at a life expectancy of <2.6 years or surveillance duration of <4 years. CONCLUSIONS: While current guidelines recommend AS of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter nodules, the results of this study suggest that immediate FNA (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) is more cost-beneficial than AS (Surveillance of all nodules). Patients with positive cytology on FNA may subsequently opt for AS (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) or surgery (Surgery of nodules with positive cytology) according to their level of comfort (ie, utility) with AS.

Developing a toolkit for implementing evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and diabetes in Cambodia: a descriptive case study.

BACKGROUND: In Cambodia, economic development accompanied by health reforms has led to a rapidly ageing population and an increasing incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases. National strategic plans recognize primary care health centres as the focal points of care for treating and managing chronic conditions, particularly hypertension and type 2 diabetes. However, health centres have limited experience in providing such services. This case study describes the process of developing a toolkit to facilitate the use of evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes at the health-centre level. METHODS: We developed and revised a preliminary toolkit based on the feedback received from key stakeholders. We gathered feedback through an iterative process of group and one-to-one consultations with representatives of the Ministry of Health, provincial health department, health centres and nongovernmental organizations between April 2019 and March 2021. RESULTS: A toolkit was developed and organized according to the core tasks required to treat and manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes patients. The main tools included patient identification and treatment cards, risk screening forms, a treatment flowchart, referral forms, and patient education material on risk factors and lifestyle recommendations on diet, exercise, and smoking cessation. The toolkit supplements existing guidelines by incorporating context-specific features, including drug availability and the types of medication and dosage guidelines recommended by the Ministry of Health. Referral forms can be extended to incorporate engagement with community health workers and patient education material adapted to the local context. All tools were translated into Khmer and can be modified as needed based on available resources and arrangements with other institutions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates how a toolkit can be developed through iterative engagement with relevant stakeholders individually and in groups to support the implementation of evidence-based guidelines. Such toolkits can help strengthen the function and capacity of the primary care system to provide care for noncommunicable diseases, serving as the first step towards developing a more comprehensive and sustainable health system in the context of population ageing and caring for patients with chronic diseases.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Versus Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation : A Decision Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is a potential alternative to oral anticoagulants in selected patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Compared with anticoagulants, LAAO decreases major bleeding risk, but there is uncertainty regarding the risk for ischemic stroke compared with anticoagulation. OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal strategy for stroke prevention conditional on a patient's individual risks for ischemic stroke and bleeding. DESIGN: Decision analysis with a Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Evidence from the published literature informed model inputs. TARGET POPULATION: Women and men with nonvalvular AF and without prior stroke. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical. INTERVENTION: LAAO versus warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end point was clinical benefit measured in quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The baseline risks for stroke and bleeding determined whether LAAO was preferred over anticoagulants in patients with AF. The combined risks favored LAAO for higher bleeding risk, but that benefit became less certain at higher stroke risks. For example, at a HAS-BLED score of 5, LAAO was favored in more than 80% of model simulations for CHA2DS2-VASc scores between 2 and 5. The probability of LAAO benefit in QALYs (>80%) at lower bleeding risks (HAS-BLED score of 0 to 1) was limited to patients with lower stroke risks (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2). Because DOACs carry lower bleeding risks than warfarin, the net benefit of LAAO is less certain than that of DOACs. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results were consistent using the ORBIT bleeding score instead of the HAS-BLED score, as well as alternative sources for LAAO clinical effectiveness data. LIMITATION: Clinical effectiveness data were drawn primarily from studies on the Watchman device. CONCLUSION: Although LAAO could be an alternative to anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with AF and high bleeding risk, the overall benefit from LAAO depends on the combination of stroke and bleeding risks in individual patients. These results suggest the need for a sufficiently low stroke risk for LAAO to be beneficial. The authors believe that these results could improve shared decision making when selecting patients for LAAO. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Cost-Effectiveness of Drug-Coated Balloon Angioplasty Versus Conventional Balloon Angioplasty for Treating Below-the-Knee Arteries in Chronic Limb-Threatening Ischemia: The SINGA-PACLI Trial.

PURPOSE: Drug-coated balloon angioplasty (DCBA) has been studied as a potentially superior option compared to conventional percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) in treating below-the-knee (BTK) arteries in chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI). The aim of this study is to examine the cost-effectiveness of DCBA versus PTA in BTK arteries based on a randomized controlled trial. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective economic study was embedded in a randomized controlled trial of 138 patients with CLTI. Resource use and health outcomes were assessed at baseline, and at 3, 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Costs were calculated from a societal perspective and health outcomes measured using quality-adjusted life years with probabilistic sensitivity analysis performed to account for subject heterogeneity. RESULTS: Compared with participants randomized to receive PTA, participants randomized to DCBA gained an average baseline-adjusted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of .012 while average total costs were USD$1854 higher; this translates to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$154,500 additional cost per QALY gained. However, the estimate of ICER had substantial variance with only 48% of bootstrap ICERs meeting a benchmark threshold of US$57,705 (the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Singapore). CONCLUSION: The use of DCBA in BTK arteries in CLTI patients was not cost-effective compared with PTA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2, Randomized trial.

Singapore's health-care system: key features, challenges, and shifts.

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Randomized Control Trial of a Tailored, Multifactorial Program to Prevent Falls Among the Community-Dwelling Elderly.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of a multifactorial, tailored intervention to reduce falls among a heterogeneous group of high-risk elderly people. DESIGN: Randomized control trial. SETTINGS: Communities. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged at least 65 years (N=354) seen at the emergency department (ED) for a fall or fall-related injury and discharged home. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention group received a tailored program of physical therapy focused on progressive training in strength, balance, and gait for a period of 3 months. They also received screening and referrals for low vision, polypharmacy, and environmental hazards. The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) test was assessed at regular intervals to allocate participants into either a home-based or group center-based program. The control group received usual care prescribed by a physician and educational materials on falls prevention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over the 9-month study period based on intervention costs and utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) calculated from EuroQol-5D scores. RESULTS: The ICER was 120,667 Singapore dollars (S$) per QALY gained (S$362/0.003 QALYs), above benchmark values (S$70,000). However, the intervention was more effective and cost-saving among those with SPPB scores of greater than 6 at baseline, higher cognitive function, better vision and no more than 1 fall in the preceding 6 months. The intervention was also cost-effective among those with 0-1 critical comorbidities (S$22,646/QALY). CONCLUSION: The intervention was, overall, not cost-effective, compared to usual care. However, the program was cost-effective among healthier subgroups, and even potentially cost-saving among individuals with sufficient reserve to benefit.

Healthcare utilization and cost trajectories post-stroke: role of caregiver and stroke factors.

BACKGROUND: It is essential to study post-stroke healthcare utilization trajectories from a stroke patient caregiver dyadic perspective to improve healthcare delivery, practices and eventually improve long-term outcomes for stroke patients. However, literature addressing this area is currently limited. Addressing this gap, our study described the trajectory of healthcare service utilization by stroke patients and associated costs over 1-year post-stroke and examined the association with caregiver identity and clinical stroke factors. METHODS: Patient and caregiver variables were obtained from a prospective cohort, while healthcare data was obtained from the national claims database. Generalized estimating equation approach was used to get the population average estimates of healthcare utilization and cost trend across 4 quarters post-stroke. RESULTS: Five hundred ninety-two stroke patient and caregiver dyads were available for current analysis. The highest utilization occurred in the first quarter post-stroke across all service types and decreased with time. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of hospitalization decreased by 51, 40, 11 and 1% for patients having spouse, sibling, child and others as caregivers respectively when compared with not having a caregiver (p = 0.017). Disability level modified the specialist outpatient clinic usage trajectory with increasing difference between mildly and severely disabled sub-groups across quarters. Stroke type and severity modified the primary care cost trajectory with expected cost estimates differing across second to fourth quarters for moderately-severe ischemic (IRR: 1.67, 1.74, 1.64; p = 0.003), moderately-severe non-ischemic (IRR: 1.61, 3.15, 2.44; p = 0.001) and severe non-ischemic (IRR: 2.18, 4.92, 4.77; p = 0.032) subgroups respectively, compared to first quarter. CONCLUSION: Highlighting the quarterly variations, we reported distinct utilization trajectories across subgroups based on clinical characteristics. Caregiver availability reducing hospitalization supports revisiting caregiver's role as potential hidden workforce, incentivizing their efforts by designing socially inclusive bundled payment models for post-acute stroke care and adopting family-centered clinical care practices.

Projection of Eye Disease Burden in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Singapore's ageing population is likely to see an increase in chronic eye conditions in the future. This study aimed to estimate the burden of eye diseases among resident Singaporeans stratified for age and ethnicity by 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prevalence data on myopia, epiretinal membrane (ERM), retinal vein occlusion (RVO), age macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), cataract, glaucoma and refractive error (RE) by age cohorts and educational attainment from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases (SEED) study were applied to population estimates from the Singapore population model. RESULTS: All eye conditions are projected to increase by 2040. Myopia and RE will remain the most prevalent condition, at 2.393 million (2.32 to 2.41 million) cases, representing a 58% increase from 2015. It is followed by cataract and ERM, with 1.33 million (1.31 to 1.35 million), representing an 81% increase, and 0.54 million (0.53 to 0.549 million) cases representing a 97% increase, respectively. Eye conditions that will see the greatest increase from 2015 to 2040 in the Chinese are: DR (112%), glaucoma (100%) and ERM (91.4%). For Malays, DR (154%), ERM (136%), and cataract (122%) cases are expected to increase the most while for Indians, ERM (112%), AMD (101%), and cataract (87%) are estimated to increase the most in the same period. CONCLUSION: Results indicate that the burden for all eye diseases is expected to increase significantly into the future, but at different rates. These projections can facilitate the planning efforts of both policymakers and healthcare providers in the development and provision of infrastructure and resources to adequately meet the eye care needs of the population. By stratifying for age and ethnicity, high risk groups may be identified and targeted interventions may be implemented.

At-Home Versus In-Clinic INR Monitoring: A Cost-Utility Analysis from The Home INR Study (THINRS).

BACKGROUND: Effective management of patients using warfarin is resource-intensive, requiring frequent in-clinic testing of the international normalized ratio (INR). Patient self-testing (PST) using portable at-home INR monitoring devices has emerged as a convenient alternative. As revealed by The Home INR Study (THINRS), event rates for PST were not significantly different from those for in-clinic high-quality anticoagulation management (HQACM), and a cumulative gain in quality of life was observed for patients undergoing PST. OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-utility analysis of weekly PST versus monthly HQACM and to examine the sensitivity of these results to testing frequency. PATIENTS/INTERVENTIONS: In this study, 2922 patients taking warfarin for atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valve, and who demonstrated PST competence, were randomized to either weekly PST (n = 1465) or monthly in-clinic testing (n = 1457). In a sub-study, 234 additional patients were randomized to PST once every 4 weeks (n = 116) or PST twice weekly (n = 118). The endpoints were quality of life (measured by the Health Utilities Index), health care utilization, and costs over 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: PST and HQACM participants were similar with regard to gender, age, and CHADS2 score. The total cost per patient over 2 years of follow-up was $32,484 for HQACM and $33,460 for weekly PST, representing a difference of $976. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained with PST once weekly was $5566 (95 % CI, -$11,490 to $25,142). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was sensitive to testing frequency: weekly PST dominated PST twice weekly and once every 4 weeks. Compared to HQACM, weekly PST was associated with statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in quality of life. The ICER for weekly PST versus HQACM was well within accepted standards for cost-effectiveness, and was preferred over more or less frequent PST. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses of key assumptions. CONCLUSION: Weekly PST is a cost-effective alternative to monthly HQACM and a preferred testing frequency compared to twice weekly or monthly PST.

Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.

BACKGROUND: As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making. OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models. METHODS: Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis). RESULTS: Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years. CONCLUSIONS: For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection.

Does distance modify the effect of self-testing in oral anticoagulation?

OBJECTIVES: Patient self-testing (PST) improves anticoagulation control and patient satisfaction. It is unknown whether these effects are more pronounced when the patient lives farther from the anticoagulation clinic (ACC). If the benefits of PST are limited to a subset of patients (those living farther from care), selectively providing PST to that subset could enhance cost-effectiveness. STUDY DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized trial of PST versus usual ACC care, which involved 2922 patients of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). METHODS: Our 3 outcomes were the primary composite clinical end point (stroke, major hemorrhage, or death), anticoagulation control (percent time in therapeutic range), and satisfaction with anticoagulation care. We measured the driving distance between the patient's residence and the nearest VHA facility. We divided patients into quartiles by distance and looked for evidence of an interaction between distance and the effect of the intervention on the 3 outcomes. RESULTS: The median driving distance was 12 miles (interquartile range = 6-21). Patients living in the farthest quartile had higher rates of the primary composite clinical end point in both groups compared with patients living in the nearest quartile. For PST, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.77 (95% CI, 1.18-2.64), and for usual care, the HR was 1.81 (95% CI, 1.19-2.75). Interaction terms did not suggest that distance to care modified the effect of the intervention on any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of PST were not enhanced among patients living farther from care. Restricting PST to patients living more than a certain distance from the ACC is not likely to improve its cost-effectiveness.

Gender, educational and ethnic differences in active life expectancy among older Singaporeans.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to compute total life expectancy (TLE), active life expectancy (ALE) and inactive life expectancy among older Singaporeans by gender, education and ethnicity. METHODS: Data from a longitudinal survey of older Singaporeans were used. No difficulty in carrying out activities of daily living or instrumental activities of daily living was considered as "active." Transition probabilities across health states (active/inactive/dead) were assessed to develop multistate life tables, which estimated TLE, ALE and inactive life expectancy. RESULTS: At age 60 years, women, versus men, had significantly higher TLE (25.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 24.0-27.8 vs 21.6, 95% CI 20.1-23.1), but similar ALE (18.1, 95% CI 17.0-19.2 vs 18.9, 95% CI 17.7-20.2). Those with high (secondary or higher), versus low (primary or less), education had significantly higher TLE (28.5, 95% CI 25.0-32.0 vs 22.5, 95% CI 21.1-23.9) and ALE (23.5, 95% CI 21.2-25.7 vs 17.1, 95% CI 16.1-18.0) at age 60 years. Those of Chinese, versus non-Chinese, ethnicity had significantly higher ALE at age 60 years (19.4, 95% CI 18.4-20.3 vs 15.0, 95% CI 13.4-16.7). CONCLUSION: Unlike Western nations, there was no gender difference in ALE among older adults in Singapore. However, difference in ALE by education among older Singaporeans was similar to that observed in Western societies. Policies focusing specifically on improving women's health at all ages, in addition to policies that increase population education levels, are promising approaches to improving ALE. Recognizing ethnic differences in ALE will help target policies that increase ALE in multicultural societies.

Cost Effectiveness of Universal Hepatitis B Virus Screening in Patients Beginning Chemotherapy for Sarcomas or GI Stromal Tumors.

PURPOSE: The value of screening for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection before chemotherapy for nonhematopoietic solid tumors remains unsettled. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of universal screening before systemic therapy for sarcomas, including GI stromal tumors (GISTs). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Drawing from the National Cancer Centre Singapore database of 1,039 patients with sarcomas, we analyzed the clinical records of 485 patients who received systemic therapy. Using a Markov model, we compared the cost effectiveness of a screen-all versus screen-none strategy in this population. RESULTS: A total of 237 patients were screened for HBV infection. No patients developed HBV reactivation during chemotherapy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of offering HBV screening to all patients with sarcomas and patients with GISTs exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold of SG$100,000 per QALY. This result was robust in one-way sensitivity analysis. Our results show that only changes in mortality rate secondary to HBV reactivation could make the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio cross the cost-effectiveness threshold. CONCLUSION: Universal HBV screening in patients with sarcomas or GISTs undergoing chemotherapy is not cost effective at a willingness to pay of SG$100,000 per QALY and may not be required.

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

International Comparison of Poststroke Resource Use: A Longitudinal Analysis in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Long-term costs often represent a large proportion of the total costs induced by stroke, but data on long-term poststroke resource use are sparse, especially regarding the trajectory of costs by severity. We used a multinational longitudinal survey to estimate patterns of poststroke resource use by degree of functional disability and to compare resource use between regions. METHODS: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is a multinational database of adults 50 years and older, which includes demographic information about respondents, age when stroke first occurred, current activity of daily living (ADL) limitations, and health care resource use in the year before interview. We modeled resource use with a 2-part regression for number of hospital days, home nursing hours, and paid and unpaid home caregiving hours. RESULTS: After accounting for time since stroke, number of strokes and comorbidities, age, gender, and European regions, we found that poststroke resource use was strongly associated with ADL limitations. The duration since the stroke event was significantly associated only with inpatient care, and informal help showed significant regional heterogeneity across all ADL limitation levels. CONCLUSIONS: Poststroke physical deficits appear to be a strong driver of long-term resource utilization; treatments that decrease such deficits offer substantial potential for downline cost savings. Analyzing internationally comparable panel data, such as SHARE, provide valuable insight into long-term cost of stroke. More comprehensive international comparisons will require registries with follow-up, particularly for informal and formal home-based care.

Detecting Germline PTEN Mutations Among At-Risk Patients With Cancer: An Age- and Sex-Specific Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PURPOSE: Cowden syndrome (CS) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by benign and malignant tumors. One-quarter of patients who are diagnosed with CS have pathogenic germline PTEN mutations, which increase the risk of the development of breast, thyroid, uterine, renal, and other cancers. PTEN testing and regular, intensive cancer surveillance allow for early detection and treatment of these cancers for mutation-positive patients and their relatives. Individual CS-related features, however, occur commonly in the general population, making it challenging for clinicians to identify CS-like patients to offer PTEN testing. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We calculated the cost per mutation detected and analyzed the cost-effectiveness of performing selected PTEN testing among CS-like patients using a semi-quantitative score (the PTEN Cleveland Clinic [CC] score) compared with existing diagnostic criteria. In our model, first-degree relatives of the patients with detected PTEN mutations are offered PTEN testing. All individuals with detected PTEN mutations are offered cancer surveillance. RESULTS: CC score at a threshold of 15 (CC15) costs from $3,720 to $4,573 to detect one PTEN mutation, which is the most inexpensive among the different strategies. At base-case, CC10 is the most cost-effective strategy for female patients who are younger than 40 years, and CC15 is the most cost-effective strategy for female patients who are between 40 and 60 years of age and male patients of all ages. In sensitivity analyses, CC15 is robustly the most cost-effective strategy for probands who are younger than 60 years. CONCLUSION: Use of the CC score as a clinical risk calculator is a cost-effective prescreening method to identify CS-like patients for PTEN germline testing.

Projection of young-old and old-old with functional disability: does accounting for the changing educational composition of the elderly population make a difference?

This study compares projections, up to year 2040, of young-old (aged 60-79) and old-old (aged 80+) with functional disability in Singapore with and without accounting for the changing educational composition of the Singaporean elderly. Two multi-state population models, with and without accounting for educational composition respectively, were developed, parameterized with age-gender-(education)-specific transition probabilities (between active, functional disability and death states) estimated from two waves (2009 and 2011) of a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling Singaporeans aged ≥ 60 years (N=4,990). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. Not accounting for educational composition overestimated the young-old with functional disability by 65 percent and underestimated the old-old by 20 percent in 2040. Accounting for educational composition, the proportion of old-old with functional disability increased from 40.8 percent in 2000 to 64.4 percent by 2040; not accounting for educational composition, the proportion in 2040 was 49.4 percent. Since the health profiles, and hence care needs, of the old-old differ from those of the young-old, health care service utilization and expenditure and the demand for formal and informal caregiving will be affected, impacting health and long-term care policy.

Optimal management of Riata leads with no known electrical abnormalities or externalization: a decision analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Riata and Riata ST implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) leads (St. Jude Medical, Sylmar, CA, USA) can develop conductor cable externalization and/or electrical failure. Optimal management of these leads remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model compared 4 lead management strategies: (1) routine device interrogation for electrical failure, (2) systematic yearly fluoroscopic screening and routine device interrogation, (3) implantation of new ICD lead with capping of the in situ lead, and (4) implantation of new ICD lead with extraction of the in situ lead. The base case was a 64-year-old primary prevention ICD patient. Modeling demonstrated average life expectancies as follows: capping with new lead implanted at 134.5 months, extraction with new lead implanted at 134.0 months, fluoroscopy with routine interrogation at 133.9 months, and routine interrogation at 133.5 months. One-way sensitivity analyses identified capping as the preferred strategy with only one parameter having a threshold value: when risk of nonarrhythmic death associated with lead abandonment is greater than 0.05% per year, lead extraction is preferred over capping. A second-order Monte Carlo simulation (n = 10,000), as a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, found that lead revision was favored with 100% certainty (extraction 76% and capping 24%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall there were minimal differences in survival with monitoring versus active lead management approaches. There is no evidence to support fluoroscopic screening for externalization of Riata or Riata ST leads.