RAIN study: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of intravenous-to-oral antibiotic switch therapy in neonates with a probable bacterial infection.

INTRODUCTION: High morbidity and mortality rates of proven bacterial infection are the main reason for substantial use of intravenous antibiotics in neonates during the first week of life. In older children, intravenous-to-oral switch after 48 hours of intravenous therapy has been shown to have many advantages and is nowadays commonly practised. We, therefore, aim to evaluate the effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of an early intravenous-to-oral switch in neonates with a probable bacterial infection. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We present a protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial assessing the non-inferiority of an early intravenous-to-oral antibiotic switch compared with a full course of intravenous antibiotics in neonates (0-28 days of age) with a probable bacterial infection. Five hundred and fifty patients will be recruited in 17 hospitals in the Netherlands. After 48 hours of intravenous treatment, they will be assigned to either continue with intravenous therapy for another 5 days (control) or switch to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid suspension (intervention). Both groups will be treated for a total of 7 days. The primary outcome will be bacterial (re)infection within 28 days after treatment completion. Secondary outcomes are the pharmacokinetic profile of oral amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, the impact on quality of life, cost-effectiveness, impact on microbiome development and additional yield of molecular techniques in diagnosis of probable bacterial infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Erasmus Medical Centre. Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03247920.

Extension of the association structure in joint models to include weighted cumulative effects.

Motivated by a study measuring diabetes-related risk factors and complications, we postulate an extension to the standard formulation of joint models for longitudinal and survival outcomes, wherein the longitudinal outcome has a cumulative effect on the hazard of the event, weighted by recency. We focus on the relationship between the biomarker HbA1c and the development of sight threatening retinopathy, since the impact of the HbA1c marker on the risk of sight threatening retinopathy is expected to be cumulative, with the evolution of the HbA1c marker over time contributing to progressively greater damage to the vascular structure of the retina. Opting for a parametric approach, we propose the use of the normal and skewed normal probability density functions as weight functions, estimating the relevant parameters directly from the data. The use of the recency-weighted cumulative effect specification allows us to incorporate differences in the development of the longitudinal profile over time in the calculation of hazard ratios between subjects. The proposed functions provide us with parameters with clinically relevant interpretations while retaining a degree of flexibility. In addition, they also allow answering of important clinical questions regarding the relative importance of various segments of the biomarkers history in the estimation of the risk of the event. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.