Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population-with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index. FINDINGS: All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million [95% UI 81·0-101·9]) and 2017 (151·3 million [133·4-171·8]), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% [95% UI 17·1-20·4] to 29·8% [27·6-32·0] of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs [95% UI 19 377·1-24 380·7]) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs [25 165·2-28 129·8]). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5-24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million [25·1-33·0] DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer). INTERPRETATION: NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).

Statistics on the use of cardiac electronic devices and interventional electrophysiological procedures in Africa from 2011 to 2016: report of the Pan African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) Cardiac Arrhythmias and Pacing Task Forces.

Aims: To provide comprehensive information on the access and use of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) and catheter ablation procedures in Africa. Methods and results: The Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) collected data on invasive management of cardiac arrhythmias from 2011 to 2016 from 31 African countries. A specific template was completed by physicians, and additional information obtained from industry. Information on health care systems, demographics, economics, procedure rates, and specific training programs was collected. Considerable heterogeneity in the access to arrhythmia care was observed across Africa. Eight of the 31 countries surveyed (26%) did not perform pacemaker implantations. The median pacemaker implantation rate was 2.66 per million population per country (range: 0.14-233 per million population). Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and cardiac resynchronization therapy were performed in 12/31 (39%) and 15/31 (48%) countries respectively, mostly by visiting teams. Electrophysiological studies, including complex catheter ablations were performed in all countries from Maghreb, but only one sub-Saharan African country (South Africa). Marked variation in cost (up to 1000-fold) was observed across countries with an inverse correlation between implant rates and the procedure fees standardized to the gross domestic product per capita. Lack of economic resources and facilities, high cost of procedures, deficiency of trained physicians, and non-existent fellowship programs were the main drivers of under-utilization of interventional cardiac arrhythmia care. Conclusion: There is limited access to CIED and ablation procedures in Africa. A quarter of countries did not have pacemaker implantation services, and catheter ablations were only available in one country in sub-Saharan Africa.

Equity in international health research collaborations in Africa: Perceptions and expectations of African researchers.

INTRODUCTION AND METHOD: Africa is currently host to a number of international genomics research and biobanking consortia, each with a mandate to advance genomics research and biobanking in Africa. Whilst most of these consortia promise to transform the way international health research is done in Africa, few have articulated exactly how they propose to go about this. In this paper, we report on a qualitative interviewing study in which we involved 17 genomics researchers in Africa. We describe their perceptions and expectations of international genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa. RESULTS: All interviewees were of the view that externally funded genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa, have played a critical role in building capacity for genomics research and biobanking in Africa and in providing an opportunity for researchers in Africa to collaborate and network with other researchers. Whilst the opportunity to collaborate was seen as a benefit, some interviewees stressed the importance of recognizing that these collaborations carry mutual benefits for all partners, including their collaborators in HICs. They also voiced two major concerns of being part of these collaborative initiatives: the possibility of exploitation of African researchers and the non-sustainability of research capacity building efforts. As a way of minimising exploitation, researchers in Africa recommended that genuine efforts be made to create transparent and equitable international health research partnerships. They suggested that this could be achieved through,: having rules of engagement, enabling African researchers to contribute to the design and conduct of international health projects in Africa, and mutual and respectful exchange of experience and capacity between research collaborators. These were identified as hallmarks to equitable international health research collaborations in Africa. CONCLUSION: Genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa such as H3Africa have gone some way in defining aspects of fair and equitable research collaborations in Africa. However, they will need to strive at achieving equitable health research collaborations if they truly aim at setting a gold standard for how international health research should be conducted in Africa.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS: We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. RESULTS: We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

Automated signal quality assessment of mobile phone-recorded heart sound signals.

Mobile phones, due to their audio processing capabilities, have the potential to facilitate the diagnosis of heart disease through automated auscultation. However, such a platform is likely to be used by non-experts, and hence, it is essential that such a device is able to automatically differentiate poor quality from diagnostically useful recordings since non-experts are more likely to make poor-quality recordings. This paper investigates the automated signal quality assessment of heart sound recordings performed using both mobile phone-based and commercial medical-grade electronic stethoscopes. The recordings, each 60 s long, were taken from 151 random adult individuals with varying diagnoses referred to a cardiac clinic and were professionally annotated by five experts. A mean voting procedure was used to compute a final quality label for each recording. Nine signal quality indices were defined and calculated for each recording. A logistic regression model for classifying binary quality was then trained and tested. The inter-rater agreement level for the stethoscope and mobile phone recordings was measured using Conger's kappa for multiclass sets and found to be 0.24 and 0.54, respectively. One-third of all the mobile phone-recorded phonocardiogram (PCG) signals were found to be of sufficient quality for analysis. The classifier was able to distinguish good- and poor-quality mobile phone recordings with 82.2% accuracy, and those made with the electronic stethoscope with an accuracy of 86.5%. We conclude that our classification approach provides a mechanism for substantially improving auscultation recordings by non-experts. This work is the first systematic evaluation of a PCG signal quality classification algorithm (using a separate test dataset) and assessment of the quality of PCG recordings captured by non-experts, using both a medical-grade digital stethoscope and a mobile phone.

2016 National Rheumatic Fever Week: The status of rheumatic heart disease in South Africa.

There is evidence of early progress in the efforts to eliminate acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and control rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in South Africa. The caseload of ARF and RHD in paediatric units appears to be falling in some provinces such as Gauteng, and the mortality attributed to rheumatic heart disease at a population level has fallen from 1.3/100 000 in 2001 to 0.7/100 000 in 2012. However, the incidence of congestive heart failure due to RHD in adults remains high (~25/100 000/year) in Gauteng Province, and is associated with a high case fatality rate of up to 35% in 6 months. There is a need to intensify the application of comprehensive interventions to enhance the primary and secondary prevention and treatment of ARF/RHD in a registry-based national programme.

Asymptomatic rheumatic heart disease in South African schoolchildren: Implications for addressing chronic health conditions through a school health service.

When new evidence comes to light, it compels us to contemplate the implications of such evidence for health policy and practice. This article examines recent research evidence on the prevalence of asymptomatic rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in South Africa and considers the implications for the Integrated School Health Programme (ISHP). RHD is still a major burden of disease in developing countries, and elimination of this preventable condition ranks high among World Heart Federation goals. If left untreated, it becomes a chronic health condition that individuals have to cope with into their adult lives. The ISHP regards the health needs of children with chronic health conditions, which include conditions such as RHD, as a key service component. However, the chronic health component of the ISHP is still poorly developed and can benefit from good evidence to guide implementation. A recent study to ascertain the prevalence of RHD in asymptomatic schoolchildren through mass screening affords an opportunity to reflect on whether, and how, asymptomatic chronic health conditions in schoolchildren could be addressed, and what the implications would be if this were done through a school-based programme such as the ISHP.

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool to Guide the Prioritization of Interventions for Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease Control in African Nations.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) prevalence and mortality rates remain especially high in many parts of Africa. While effective prevention and treatment exist, coverage rates of the various interventions are low. Little is known about the comparative cost-effectiveness of different RHD interventions in limited resource settings. We developed an economic evaluation tool to assist ministries of health in allocating resources and planning RHD control programs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a Markov model of the natural history of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD, taking transition probabilities and intervention effectiveness data from previously published studies and expert opinion. Our model estimates the incremental cost-effectiveness of scaling up coverage of primary prevention (PP), secondary prevention (SP) and heart valve surgery (VS) interventions for RHD. We take a healthcare system perspective on costs and measure outcomes as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), discounting both at 3%. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses are also built into the modeling tool. We illustrate the use of this model in a hypothetical low-income African country, drawing on available disease burden and cost data. We found that, in our hypothetical country, PP would be cost saving and SP would be very cost-effective. International referral for VS (e.g., to a country like India that has existing surgical capacity) would be cost-effective, but building in-country VS services would not be cost-effective at typical low-income country thresholds. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our cost-effectiveness analysis tool is designed to inform priorities for ARF/RHD control programs in Africa at the national or subnational level. In contrast to previous literature, our preliminary findings suggest PP could be the most efficient and cheapest approach in poor countries. We provide our model for public use in the form of a Supplementary File. Our research has immediate policy relevance and calls for renewed efforts to scale up RHD prevention.

Developing the African national health research systems barometer.

BACKGROUND: A functional national health research system (NHRS) is crucial in strengthening a country's health system to promote, restore and maintain the health status of its population. Progress towards the goal of universal health coverage in the post-2015 sustainable development agenda will be difficult for African countries without strengthening of their NHRS to yield the required evidence for decision-making. This study aims to develop a barometer to facilitate monitoring of the development and performance of NHRSs in the African Region of WHO. METHODS: The African national health research systems barometer algorithm was developed in response to a recommendation of the African Advisory Committee for Health Research and Development of WHO. Survey data collected from all the 47 Member States in the WHO African Region using a questionnaire were entered into an Excel spreadsheet and analysed. The barometer scores for each country were calculated and the performance interpreted according to a set of values ranging from 0% to 100%. RESULTS: The overall NHRS barometer score for the African Region was 42%, which is below the average of 50%. Among the 47 countries, the average NHRS performance was less than 20% in 10 countries, 20-40% in 11 countries, 41-60% in 16 countries, 61-80% in nine countries, and over 80% in one country. The performance of NHRSs in 30 (64%) countries was below 50%. CONCLUSION: An African NHRS barometer with four functions and 17 sub-functions was developed to identify the gaps in and facilitate monitoring of NHRS development and performance. The NHRS scores for the individual sub-functions can guide policymakers to locate sources of poor performance and to design interventions to address them.

Endemic Cardiovascular Diseases of the Poorest Billion.

The poorest billion people are distributed throughout the world, though most are concentrated in rural sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) data can be sparse in low- and middle-income countries beyond urban centers. Despite this urban bias, CVD registries from the poorest countries have long revealed a predominance of nonatherosclerotic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, nonischemic and Chagas cardiomyopathies, rheumatic heart disease, and congenital heart anomalies, among others. Ischemic heart disease has been relatively uncommon. Here, we summarize what is known about the epidemiology of CVDs among the world's poorest people and evaluate the relevance of global targets for CVD control in this population. We assessed both primary data sources, and the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study modeled estimates in the world's 16 poorest countries where 62% of the population are among the poorest billion. We found that ischemic heart disease accounted for only 12% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the poorest countries, compared with 51% of DALYs in high-income countries. We found that as little as 53% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden (1629/3049 DALYs per 100 000) was attributed to behavioral or metabolic risk factors in the poorest countries (eg, in Niger, 82% of the population among the poorest billion) compared with 85% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden (4439/5199 DALYs) in high-income countries. Further, of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden, 34% was accrued in people under age 30 years in the poorest countries, while only 3% is accrued under age 30 years in high-income countries. We conclude although the current global targets for noncommunicable disease and CVD control will help diminish premature CVD death in the poorest populations, they are not sufficient. Specifically, the current framework (1) excludes deaths of people <30 years of age and deaths attributable to congenital heart anomalies, and (2) emphasizes interventions to prevent and treat conditions attributed to behavioral and metabolic risks factors. We recommend a complementary strategy for the poorest populations that targets premature death at younger ages, addresses environmental and infectious risks, and introduces broader integrated health system interventions, including cardiac surgery for congenital and rheumatic heart disease.

Seven key actions to eradicate rheumatic heart disease in Africa: the Addis Ababa communiqué.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain major causes of heart failure, stroke and death among African women and children, despite being preventable and imminently treatable. From 21 to 22 February 2015, the Social Cluster of the Africa Union Commission (AUC) hosted a consultation with RHD experts convened by the Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to develop a 'roadmap' of key actions that need to be taken by governments to eliminate ARF and eradicate RHD in Africa. Seven priority areas for action were adopted: (1) create prospective disease registers at sentinel sites in affected countries to measure disease burden and track progress towards the reduction of mortality by 25% by the year 2025, (2) ensure an adequate supply of high-quality benzathine penicillin for the primary and secondary prevention of ARF/RHD, (3) improve access to reproductive health services for women with RHD and other non-communicable diseases (NCD), (4) decentralise technical expertise and technology for diagnosing and managing ARF and RHD (including ultrasound of the heart), (5) establish national and regional centres of excellence for essential cardiac surgery for the treatment of affected patients and training of cardiovascular practitioners of the future, (6) initiate national multi-sectoral RHD programmes within NCD control programmes of affected countries, and (7) foster international partnerships with multinational organisations for resource mobilisation, monitoring and evaluation of the programme to end RHD in Africa. This Addis Ababa communiqué has since been endorsed by African Union heads of state, and plans are underway to implement the roadmap in order to end ARF and RHD in Africa in our lifetime.

Effect of distance to health facility on the maintenance of INR therapeutic ranges in rheumatic heart disease patients from Cape Town: no evidence for an association.

BACKGROUND: Lack of adherence to international normalised ratio (INR) monitoring in rheumatic heart disease (RHD) patients is a contributor to cardio-embolic complications. This population-based observational study investigated whether the distance between home and an INR clinic affects the maintenance of therapeutic INR in RHD patients on warfarin. METHODS: Residential addresses, INR clinics, and INR results of patients with RHD were extracted from the Cape Town component of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (REMEDY) database. Addresses of homes and INR clinics were converted to geographical coordinates and verified in ArcGIS 10®. ArcGIS 10® and Google Maps® were used for spatial mapping and obtaining shortest road distances respectively. The travel distance between the home and INR clinic was correlated with time within therapeutic range (TTR) using the Rosendaal linear interpolation method, and with the fraction of INR within range, based on an average of three INR readings of patients and compared with recommended therapeutic ranges. RESULTS: RHD patients (n = 133) resided between 0.2 km and 50.8 km (median distance, 3.60 km) from one of 33 INR clinics. There was no significant difference in the achievement of the therapeutic INR between patients who travelled a shorter distance compared to those who travelled a longer distance (in range = 3.50 km versus out of range = 3.75 km, p = 0.78). This finding was the same for patients with mechanical valve replacement (n = 105) (3.50 km versus 3.90 km, p = 0.81), and native valves (3.45 km versus 2.75 km, p = 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: There is no association between the maintenance of INR within therapeutic range amongst RHD patients in Cape Town and distance from patients' residence to the INR clinic.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a program to control rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

BACKGROUND: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) persist in many low- and middle-income countries. To date, the cost-effectiveness of population-based, combined primary and secondary prevention strategies has not been assessed. In the Pinar del Rio province of Cuba, a comprehensive ARF/RHD control program was undertaken over 1986-1996. The present study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of this Cuban program. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a decision tree model based on the natural history of ARF/RHD, comparing the costs and effectiveness of the 10-year Cuban program to a "do nothing" approach. Our population of interest was the cohort of children aged 5-24 years resident in Pinar del Rio in 1986. We assessed costs and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon, and we took the healthcare system perspective on costs but did not apply a discount rate. We used epidemiologic, clinical, and direct medical cost inputs that were previously collected for publications on the Cuban program. We estimated health gains as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using standard approaches developed for the Global Burden of Disease studies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds were defined by one and three times per capita gross domestic product per DALY averted. We also conducted an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations and several scenario analyses exploring the impact of alternative assumptions about the program's effects and costs. We found that, compared to doing nothing, the Cuban program averted 5051 DALYs (1844 per 100,000 school-aged children) and saved $7,848,590 (2010 USD) despite a total program cost of $202,890 over 10 years. In the scenario analyses, the program remained cost saving when a lower level of effectiveness and a reduction in averted years of life lost were assumed. In a worst-case scenario including 20-fold higher costs, the program still had a 100% of being cost-effective and an 85% chance of being cost saving. CONCLUSIONS: A 10-year program to control ARF/RHD in Pinar del Rio, Cuba dramatically reduced morbidity and premature mortality in children and young adults and was cost saving. The results of our analysis were robust to higher program costs and more conservative assumptions about the program's effectiveness. It is possible that the program's effectiveness resulted from synergies between primary and secondary prevention strategies. The findings of this study have implications for non-communicable disease policymaking in other resource-limited settings.

Increasing the value of health research in the WHO African Region beyond 2015--reflecting on the past, celebrating the present and building the future: a bibliometric analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the profile and determinants of health research productivity in Africa since the onset of the new millennium. DESIGN: Bibliometric analysis. DATA COLLECTION AND SYNTHESIS: In November 2014, we searched PubMed for articles published between 2000 and 2014 from the WHO African Region, and obtained country-level indicators from World Bank data. We used Poisson regression to examine time trends in research publications and negative binomial regression to explore determinants of research publications. RESULTS: We identified 107,662 publications, with a median of 727 per country (range 25-31,757). Three countries (South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya) contributed 52% of the publications. The number of publications increased from 3623 in 2000 to 12,709 in 2014 (relative growth 251%). Similarly, the per cent share of worldwide research publications per year increased from 0.7% in 2000 to 1.3% in 2014. The trend analysis was also significant to confirm a continuous increase in health research publications from Africa, with productivity increasing by 10.3% per year (95% CIs +10.1% to +10.5%). The only independent predictor of publication outputs was national gross domestic product. For every one log US$ billion increase in gross domestic product, research publications rose by 105%: incidence rate ratio (IRR=2.05, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.04). The association of private health expenditure with publications was only marginally significant (IRR=1.86, 95% CI 1.00 to 3.47). CONCLUSIONS: There has been a significant improvement in health research in the WHO African Region since 2000, with some individual countries already having strong research profiles. Countries of the region should implement the WHO Strategy on Research for Health: reinforcing the research culture (organisation); focusing research on key health challenges (priorities); strengthening national health research systems (capacity); encouraging good research practice (standards); and consolidating linkages between health research and action (translation).