Multistate survival modelling of multimorbidity and transitions across health needs states and death in an ageing population.

BACKGROUND: Unmet health needs have the potential to capture health inequality. Nevertheless, the course of healthcare needs fulfilment, and the role of multimorbidity in this process remains unclear. This study assessed the bidirectional transitions between met and unmet health needs and the transition to death and examined the effect of multimorbidity on transitions. METHODS: This study was based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, a nationally representative survey in 2011-2015 among 18 075 participants aged 45 and above (average age 61.1; SD 9.9). We applied a multistate survival model to estimate the probabilities and the instantaneous risk of state transitions, and Gompertz hazard models were fitted to estimate the total, marginal and state-specific life expectancies (LEs). RESULTS: Living with physical multimorbidity (HR=1.85, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.15) or physical-mental multimorbidity (HR=1.45, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.82) was associated with an increased risk of transitioning into unmet healthcare needs compared with no multimorbidity. Conversely, multimorbidity groups had a decreased risk of transitioning out of unmet needs. Multimorbidity was also associated with shortened total life expectancy (TLEs), and the proportion of marginal LE for having unmet needs was more than two times higher than no multimorbidity. CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity aggravates the risk of transitioning into having unmet healthcare needs in the middle and later life, leading to a notable reduction in TLEs, with longer times spent with unmet needs. Policy inputs on developing integrated person-centred services and specifically scaling up to target the complex health needs of ageing populations need to be in place.

In Caring for Older People in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, Do Older Caregivers Have a High Level of Care Burden and Psychological Morbidity Compared to Younger Caregivers?

Caregivers have become older as longevity increases. Caregiving for older people can cause burdens and psychological morbidity, which are the chronic stresses perceived by informal caregivers. This study aimed to compare the levels of care burden and psychological morbidity between older and younger caregivers in low- and middle-income countries. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and China. Data were collected by the 10/66 Dementia Research Group. The Zarit Burden Inventory was used to measure the levels of burden on caregivers. Psychological morbidity was assessed through the Self-Reporting Questionnaire. Data from 1348 households in which informal caregivers provided home care for one older person were included in the analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the effects of caregiver age upon care burden and psychological morbidity. A fixed-effect meta-analysis model was used to obtain a pooled estimate of the overall odds ratios of each country. The unadjusted and the adjusted model for potential covariates revealed no significant difference in care burden and psychological morbidity between older caregivers and younger caregivers. The adjusted pooled estimates, however, indicated a lower psychological morbidity among older caregivers (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41-0.93, I2 = 0.0%). The demographic implications of caregiver age may suggest different policy responses across low- and middle-income countries.

Unmet healthcare needs among middle-aged and older adults in China.

BACKGROUND: Unmet healthcare needs have increasingly been recognised as an indicator of equity of healthcare access and utilisation, having the potential to capture frailty of health and social protection systems. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of unmet healthcare needs and its correlates among middle-aged and older adults in China. METHODS: This study is based on analyses of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study carried out in 2011 among Chinese adults aged 45 years and above. Multivariable logistic regression models were conducted to examine associated factors, stratified by rural or urban residence. Reasons for having unmet needs for inpatient and outpatient services were also analysed. RESULTS: Among 14,774 participants, the prevalence of unmet healthcare needs was 13.0% (95% confidence interval 12.3-13.8%) and was higher in rural areas. The most prevalent reasons for unmet need for inpatient and outpatient care were 'not enough money' and 'illness is not serious, don't need treatment', respectively. The respondents who were unmarried, employed, had poor self-reported health, needed help with activities of daily living, reported lower life satisfaction, multiple chronic conditions and depressive symptoms had increased odds of unmet healthcare needs. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that unmet healthcare needs are more concentrated among people living with multiple health conditions and mental health problems in China. If universal health coverage goals and sustainable development goal 3 are to be met, it is essential that effective mechanisms for addressing unmet healthcare needs are identified.

Inequalities in Older age and Primary Health Care Utilization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

The objective of this research was to systematically review and synthesize quantitative studies that assessed the association between socioeconomic inequalities and primary health care (PHC) utilization among older people living in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Six databases were searched, including Embase, Medline, Psych Info, Global Health, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), and China National Knowledge Infrastructure, CNKI, to identify eligible studies. A narrative synthesis approach was used for evidence synthesis. A total of 20 eligible cross-sectional studies were included in this systematic review. The indicators of socioeconomic status (SES) identified included income level, education, employment/occupation, and health insurance. Most studies reported that higher income, higher educational levels and enrollment in health insurance plans were associated with increased PHC utilization. Several studies suggested that people who were unemployed and economically inactive in older age or who had worked in formal sectors were more likely to use PHC. Our findings suggest a pro-rich phenomenon of PHC utilization in older people living in LMICs, with results varying by indicators of SES and study settings.

A cohort study of the effects of older adult care dependence upon household economic functioning, in Peru, Mexico and China.

BACKGROUND: While links between disability and poverty are well established, there have been few longitudinal studies to clarify direction of causality, particularly among older adults in low and middle income countries. We aimed to study the effect of care dependence among older adult residents on the economic functioning of their households, in catchment area survey sites in Peru, Mexico and China. METHODS: Households were classified from the evolution of the needs for care of older residents, over two previous community surveys, as 'incident care', 'chronic care' or 'no care', and followed up three years later to ascertain economic outcomes (household income, consumption, economic strain, satisfaction with economic circumstances, healthcare expenditure and residents giving up work or education to care). RESULTS: Household income did not differ between household groups. However, income from paid work (Pooled Count Ratio pCR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00) and government transfers (pCR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93) were lower in care households. Consumption was 12% lower in chronic care households (pCR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77-0.99). Household healthcare expenditure was higher (pCR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26-1.90), and catastrophic healthcare spending more common (pRR 1.64, 95% CI 1.64-2.22) in care households. CONCLUSIONS: While endogeneity cannot be confidently excluded as an explanation for the findings, this study indicates that older people's needs for care have a discernable impact on household economics, controlling for baseline indicators of long-term economic status. Although living, typically, in multigenerational family units, older people have not featured prominently in global health and development agendas. Population ageing will rapidly increase the number of households where older people live, and their societal significance. Building sustainable long-term care systems for the future will require some combination of improved income security in old age; incentivisation of informal care through compensation for direct and opportunity costs; and development of community care services to support, and, where necessary, supplement or substitute the central role of informal caregivers.

A journey without maps-Understanding the costs of caring for dependent older people in Nigeria, China, Mexico and Peru.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Populations in Latin America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are rapidly ageing. The extent to which traditional systems of family support and security can manage the care of increased numbers of older people with chronic health problems is unclear. Our aim was to explore the social and economic effects of caring for an older dependent person, including insight into pathways to economic vulnerability. DESIGN & METHODS: We carried out a series of household case studies across urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and Nigeria (n = 24), as part of a cross-sectional study, nested within the 10/66 Dementia Research Group cohort. Case studies consisted of in-depth narrative style interviews (n = 60) with multiple family members, including the older dependent person. RESULTS: Governments were largely uninvolved in the care and support of older dependent people, leaving families to negotiate a 'journey without maps'. Women were de facto caregivers but the traditional role of female relative as caregiver was beginning to be contested. Household composition was flexible and responsive to changing needs of multiple generations but family finances were stretched. IMPLICATIONS: Governments are lagging behind sociodemographic and social change. There is an urgent need for policy frameworks to support and supplement inputs from families. These should include community-based and residential care services, disability benefits and carers allowances. Further enhancement of health insurance schemes and scale-up of social pensions are an important component of bolstering the security of dependent older people and supporting their continued social and economic participation.

Burden and presentation of depression among newly diagnosed individuals with TB in primary care settings in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding co-morbidity of depression and tuberculosis (TB) has been limited by challenges in measurement of depression due to overlapping symptoms, use of small hospital samples and uncontrolled analysis. This study was conducted to better understand the burden and presentation of depression, and associated factors in people with TB in primary care settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 657 people newly diagnosed with TB. Symptoms of depression were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). TB symptoms and other factors were captured using standardised questionnaires. The factor structure of PHQ-9 was examined. Multivariable analysis was carried out to estimate prevalence ratios. RESULTS: The prevalence of probable depression was 54.0%. The PHQ-9 had one factor structure (alpha = 0.81). Little interest or pleasure in doing things (73.0%) was the commonest depressive symptom. Older age (Adjusted Prevalence ratio (APR) = 1.19; 95%CI = 1.06, 1.33), female sex (APR = 1.23; 95%CI = 1.18, 1.27), night sweating (APR = 1.25; 95%CI = 1.16, 1.35), pain (APR = 1.69; 95%CI = 1.24, 2.29), being underweight (APR = 1.10; 95%CI = 1.07, 1.13), duration of illness (APR = 1.35; 95%CI = 1.22, 1.50), level of education (APR = 0.93; 95%CI = 0.90, 0.95), and social support (APR = 0.89; 95%CI = 0.85, 0.93) were independently associated with probable depression. CONCLUSIONS: Depression appears highly prevalent in people with TB and PHQ-9 seems to be a useful instrument to detect depression in the context of TB. The frequency of depressive symptoms would suggest that the occurrence of the symptoms in people with TB is in the usual manifestation of the disorder. Prospective studies are needed to understand the longitudinal relationship between TB and depression.

The economic status of older people's households in urban and rural settings in Peru, Mexico and China: a 10/66 INDEP study cross-sectional survey.

Few data are available from middle income countries regarding economic circumstances of households in which older people live. Many such settings have experienced rapid demographic, social and economic change, alongside increasing pension coverage. Population-based household surveys in rural and urban catchment areas in Peru, Mexico and China. Participating households were selected from all households with older residents. Descriptive analyses were weighted back for sampling fractions and non-response. Household income and consumption were estimated from a household key informant interview. 877 Household interviews (3177 residents). Response rate 68 %. Household income and consumption correlated plausibly with other economic wellbeing indicators. Household Incomes varied considerably within and between sites. While multigenerational households were the norm, older resident's incomes accounted for a high proportion of household income, and older people were particularly likely to pool income. Differences in the coverage and value of pensions were a major source of variation in household income among sites. There was a small, consistent inverse association between household pension income and labour force participation of younger adult co-residents. The effect of pension income on older adults' labour force participation was less clear-cut. Historical linkage of social protection to formal employment may have contributed to profound late-life socioeconomic inequalities. Strategies to formalise the informal economy, alongside increases in the coverage and value of non-contributory pensions and transfers would help to address this problem.

Exploring the economic and social effects of care dependence in later life: protocol for the 10/66 research group INDEP study.

BACKGROUND: In low or middle income countries chronic diseases are rapidly becoming the main cause of disease burden. However, the main focus of health policymakers has been on preventing death from cancer and heart disease, with very little attention to the growing problem of long-term needs for care (dependence). Numbers of dependent older people are set to quadruple by 2050. The economic impact of providing long-term care is likely to be substantial. METHODS/DESIGN: The study uses mixed methods and draws on and extends the population-based surveys conducted by the 10/66 Dementia Research Group. We focus on two countries in Latin America (Peru and Mexico), China and Nigeria. The surveys comprised baseline surveys of health, socioeconomic circumstances and care arrangements, repeated three to four years later. We are going back to these households to make a detailed assessment of the overall economic status and the use of health services by all family members. We will compare households where: a) an older resident became dependent between baseline and follow-up (incident care), b) one or more older people were dependent at both time points (chronic care), b) c) no older residents had needs for care (control households) for household income, consumption, healthcare expenditure and economic strain. In each of the four countries we are carrying out six detailed household 'case studies' to explore in more depth the economic impacts of dependence, and the social relations between household members and others in their network. DISCUSSION: The INDEP study will provide a detailed examination of the economic and social effects of care dependence in low and middle income settings. As the proportion of older people with needs for care rises rapidly in these countries, this neglected policy area is likely to become increasingly salient for families, communities and policymakers alike. Our detailed multilevel plans for dissemination will ensure that the study helps to put this important issue on the agenda for the international and national media, the public and researchers.