Performance Assessment of the Universal Vital Assessment Score vs Other Illness Severity Scores for Predicting Risk of In-Hospital Death Among Adult Febrile Inpatients in Northern Tanzania, 2016-2019.

Importance: Severity scores are used to improve triage of hospitalized patients in high-income settings, but the scores may not translate well to low- and middle-income settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. Objective: To assess the performance of the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score, derived in 2017, compared with other illness severity scores for predicting in-hospital mortality among adults with febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used clinical data collected for the duration of hospitalization among patients with febrile illness admitted to Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre or Mawenzi Regional Referral Hospital in Moshi, Tanzania, from September 2016 through May 2019. All adult and pediatric patients with a history of fever within 72 hours or a tympanic temperature of 38.0 °C or higher at screening were eligible for enrollment. Of 3761 eligible participants, 1132 (30.1%) were enrolled in the parent study; of those, 597 adults 18 years or older were included in this analysis. Data were analyzed from December 2019 to September 2021. Exposures: Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) assessment, and UVA. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was in-hospital mortality during the same hospitalization as the participant's enrollment. Crude risk ratios and 95% CIs for in-hospital death were calculated using log-binomial risk regression for proposed score cutoffs for each of the illness severity scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for estimating the risk of in-hospital death was calculated for each score. Results: Among 597 participants, the median age was 43 years (IQR, 31-56 years); 300 participants (50.3%) were female, 198 (33.2%) were HIV-infected, and in-hospital death occurred in 55 (9.2%). By higher risk score strata for each score, compared with lower risk strata, risk ratios for in-hospital death were 3.7 (95% CI, 2.2-6.2) for a MEWS of 5 or higher; 2.7 (95% CI, 0.9-7.8) for a NEWS of 5 or 6; 9.6 (95% CI, 4.2-22.2) for a NEWS of 7 or higher; 4.8 (95% CI, 1.2-20.2) for a qSOFA score of 1; 15.4 (95% CI, 3.8-63.1) for a qSOFA score of 2 or higher; 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2-5.2) for a SIRS score of 2 or higher; 9.1 (95% CI, 2.7-30.3) for a UVA score of 2 to 4; and 30.6 (95% CI, 9.6-97.8) for a UVA score of 5 or higher. The AUROCs, using all ordinal values, were 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80-0.90) for the UVA score, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.87) for the NEWS, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.69-0.82) for the MEWS, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79) for the qSOFA score, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.71) for the SIRS score. The AUROC for the UVA score was significantly greater than that for all other scores (P < .05 for all comparisons) except for NEWS (P = .08). Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study found that the NEWS and the UVA score performed favorably compared with other illness severity scores in predicting in-hospital mortality among a hospitalized cohort of adults with febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Given its reliance on readily available clinical data, the UVA score may have utility in the triage and prognostication of patients admitted to the hospital with febrile illness in low- to middle-income settings such as sub-Saharan Africa.

Trends in fever case management for febrile inpatients in a low malaria incidence setting of Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: In 2010, WHO published guidelines emphasising parasitological confirmation of malaria before treatment. We present data on changes in fever case management in a low malaria transmission setting of northern Tanzania after 2010. METHODS: We compared diagnoses, treatments and outcomes from two hospital-based prospective cohort studies, Cohort 1 (2011-2014) and Cohort 2 (2016-2019), that enrolled febrile children and adults. All participants underwent quality-assured malaria blood smear-microscopy. Participants who were malaria smear-microscopy negative but received a diagnosis of malaria or received an antimalarial were categorised as malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment, respectively. RESULTS: We analysed data from 2098 participants. The median (IQR) age was 27 (3-43) years and 1047 (50.0%) were female. Malaria was detected in 23 (2.3%) participants in Cohort 1 and 42 (3.8%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.059). Malaria over-diagnosis occurred in 334 (35.0%) participants in Cohort 1 and 190 (17.7%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). Malaria over-treatment occurred in 528 (55.1%) participants in Cohort 1 and 196 (18.3%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). There were 30 (3.1%) deaths in Cohort 1 and 60 (5.4%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.007). All deaths occurred among smear-negative participants. CONCLUSION: We observed a substantial decline in malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment among febrile inpatients in northern Tanzania between two time periods after 2010. Despite changes, some smear-negative participants were still diagnosed and treated for malaria. Our results highlight the need for continued monitoring of fever case management across different malaria epidemiological settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

"If You Have No Money, You Might Die": A Qualitative Study of Sociocultural and Health System Barriers to Care for Decedent Febrile Inpatients in Northern Tanzania.

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) despite effective treatments. To study the sociocultural and health system barriers to care, we conducted a qualitative social autopsy study of patients who died from febrile illness in northern Tanzania. From December 2016 through July 2017, we conducted in-depth interviews in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions with a purposive sample of 20 family members of patients who had died at two regional referral hospitals. Of the deceased patients included in this study, 14 (70%) were adults and 10 (50%) were female. Patients identified their religion as Catholic (12, 60%), Lutheran (six, 30%), and Muslim (two, 10%), and their ethnicity as Chagga (14, 70%) and Sambaa (two, 10%), among others. Family members reported both barriers to and facilitators of receiving health care. Barriers included a perceived lack of capacity of local health facilities, transportation barriers, and a lack of formal referrals to higher levels of care. Family members also reported the cost of health care as a barrier. However, one facilitator of care was access to financial resources via families' social networks-a phenomenon we refer to as social capital. Another facilitator of care was families' proactive engagement with the health system. Our results suggest that further investment in lower level health facilities may improve care-seeking and referral patterns and that future research into the role of social capital is needed to fully understand the effect of socioeconomic factors on healthcare utilization in LMICs.

Assessment of animal hosts of pathogenic Leptospira in northern Tanzania.

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic bacterial disease that affects more than one million people worldwide each year. Human infection is acquired through direct or indirect contact with the urine of an infected animal. A wide range of animals including rodents and livestock may shed Leptospira bacteria and act as a source of infection for people. In the Kilimanjaro Region of northern Tanzania, leptospirosis is an important cause of acute febrile illness, yet relatively little is known about animal hosts of Leptospira infection in this area. The roles of rodents and ruminant livestock in the epidemiology of leptospirosis were evaluated through two linked studies. A cross-sectional study of peri-domestic rodents performed in two districts with a high reported incidence of human leptospirosis found no evidence of Leptospira infection among rodent species trapped in and around randomly selected households. In contrast, pathogenic Leptospira infection was detected in 7.08% cattle (n = 452 [5.1-9.8%]), 1.20% goats (n = 167 [0.3-4.3%]) and 1.12% sheep (n = 89 [0.1-60.0%]) sampled in local slaughterhouses. Four Leptospira genotypes were detected in livestock. Two distinct clades of L. borgpetersenii were identified in cattle as well as a clade of novel secY sequences that showed only 95% identity to known Leptospira sequences. Identical L. kirschneri sequences were obtained from qPCR-positive kidney samples from cattle, sheep and goats. These results indicate that ruminant livestock are important hosts of Leptospira in northern Tanzania. Infected livestock may act as a source of Leptospira infection for people. Additional work is needed to understand the role of livestock in the maintenance and transmission of Leptospira infection in this region and to examine linkages between human and livestock infections.

Sociocultural and health system factors associated with mortality among febrile inpatients in Tanzania: a prospective social biopsy cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Communicable diseases are the leading causes of death in Tanzania despite the existence of effective treatment tools. We aimed to assess the sociocultural and health system factors associated with mortality from febrile illness in northern Tanzania. METHODS: We interviewed febrile inpatients to determine prevalence of barriers in seeking or receiving care and grouped these barriers using the Three Delays model (delays at home, in transport and at healthcare facilities). We assessed 6-week mortality and, after matching on age, gender and severity of illness, measured the association between delays and mortality using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: We enrolled 475 children, of whom 18 (3.8%) died, and 260 adults, of whom 34 (13.0%) died. For children, home delays were not associated with mortality. Among adults, a delay in care-seeking due to not recognising severe symptoms was associated with mortality (OR: 3.01; 95% CI 1.24 to 7.32). For transport delays, taking >1 hour to reach a facility increased odds of death in children (OR: 3.27; 95% CI 1.11 to 9.66) and adults (OR: 3.03; 95% CI 1.32 to 6.99). For health system delays, each additional facility visited was associated with mortality for children (OR: 1.59; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.38) and adults (OR: 2.00; 95% CI 1.17 to 3.41), as was spending >4 days between the first facility visit and reaching tertiary care (OR: 4.39; 95% CI 1.49 to 12.93). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that delays at home, in transport and in accessing tertiary care are risk factors for mortality from febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Interventions that may reduce mortality include community education regarding severe symptoms, expanding transportation infrastructure and streamlining referrals to tertiary care for the sickest patients.