Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction: A pooled analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER data.

AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to usual care, compared with usual care alone, in a large population of patients with heart failure (HF), spanning the full range of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patient-level data were pooled from HF trials (DAPA-HF, DELIVER) to generate a population including HF with reduced, mildly reduced and preserved LVEF, to increase statistical power and enable exploration of interactions among LVEF, renal function and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, as they are relevant determinants of health status in this population. Survival and HF recurrent event risk equations were derived and applied to a lifetime horizon Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score quartiles; costs and utilities were in the UK setting. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £6470 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, well below the UK willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. In interaction sensitivity analyses, the highest ICER was observed for elderly patients with preserved LVEF (£16 624/QALY gained), and ranged to a region of dominance (increased QALYs, decreased costs) for patients with poorer renal function and reduced/mildly reduced LVEF. Results across the patient characteristic interaction plane were mostly between £5000 and £10 000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin plus usual care, versus usual care alone, yielded results well below the WTP threshold for the UK across a heterogeneous population of patients with HF including the full spectrum of LVEF, and is likely a cost-effective intervention.

Dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: cost-effectiveness beyond the DAPA-CKD trial.

Background: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial enrolled patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio >200 mg/g. The Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes, a higher range of kidney function and no albuminuria criterion. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in a broad chronic kidney disease population based on these two trials in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan. Methods: We adapted a published Markov model based on the DAPA-CKD trial but to a broader population, irrespective of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, using patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD and DECLARE-TIMI 58 trials. We sourced cost and utility inputs from literature and the DAPA-CKD trial. The analysis considered healthcare system perspectives over a lifetime horizon. Results: Treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to attenuate disease progression and extend projected life expectancy by 0.64 years (12.5 versus 11.9 years, undiscounted) in the UK, with similar estimates in other settings. Clinical benefits translated to mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY; discounted) gains between 0.45 and 0.68 years across countries. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan ($10 676/QALY, $14 479/QALY, $7771/QALY and $13 723/QALY, respectively) were cost-effective at country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds. Subgroup analyses suggest dapagliflozin is cost-effective irrespective of urinary albumin-to-creatine ratio and type 2 diabetes status. Conclusion: Treatment with dapagliflozin may be cost-effective for patients across a wider spectrum of estimated glomerular filtration rates and albuminuria than previously demonstrated, with or without type 2 diabetes, in the UK, Spanish, Italian and Japanese healthcare systems.

Translating the efficacy of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease to lower healthcare resource utilization and costs: a medical care cost offset analysis.

AIMS: Dapagliflozin was approved for use in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on results of the DAPA-CKD trial, demonstrating attenuation of CKD progression and reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy. The study objective was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes across 31 countries and regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comparative cost-determination framework estimated outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus standard therapy versus standard therapy alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), acute kidney injury (AKI), and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 100,000 patients. Associated medical care costs for non-fatal events were calculated using sources from a review of publicly available data specific to each considered setting. RESULTS: Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy experienced fewer incidents of ESKD (7,221 vs 10,767; number needed to treat, NNT: 28), HHF (2,370 vs 4,684; NNT: 43), AKI (4,110 vs. 5,819; NNT: 58), and ACM (6,383 vs 8,874; NNT: 40) per 100,000 treated patients versus those treated with standard therapy alone. Across 31 countries/regions, reductions in clinical events were associated with a 33% reduction in total costs, or a cumulative mean medical care cost offset of $264 million per 100,000 patients over 3 years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: This analysis is limited by the quality of country/region-specific data available for medical care event costs. Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, we show that treatment with dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence at the population level, which could have positive effects upon healthcare service delivery worldwide. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a high clinical, economic, and societal burden and it affects approximately 8-16% of the global population. The progressive nature of CKD may lead to complications, co-morbidities, and mortality, costing healthcare systems millions and consuming a large proportion of healthcare resources. Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor, has been demonstrated to slow CKD progression and reduce cardio-renal complications, as demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial. With the emergence of dapagliflozin as a treatment for CKD, it is important for clinicians and healthcare providers to understand how effective treatment can positively affect short-term healthcare service delivery and associated costs. This medical care cost offset modelling analysis considers a scalable population of 100,000 patients in 31 countries/regions worldwide. The analysis estimates treatment with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy to be offset by a 33% reduction in costs associated with key cardio-renal outcomes, translating to an average $264 million in cost offsets per 100,000 treated patients. This modelling analysis of pivotal trial data shows dapagliflozin could have considerable benefits to healthcare systems worldwide that are under strain from the rising burden of CKD.

The cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction: A European health-economic analysis of the DELIVER trial.

AIMS: To determine the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, added to usual care, in patients with heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction for the UK, German and Spanish payers using detailed patient-level data from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: A lifetime Markov state-transition cohort model was developed. Quartiles of the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score (KCCQ-TSS) defined health states and monthly transition count data informed transition probabilities. Multivariable generalized estimating equations captured the incidence of HF hospitalizations and urgent HF visits, while cardiovascular deaths and all-cause mortality were estimated using adjusted parametric survival models. Health state costs were assigned to KCCQ-TSS quartiles (2021 British pound [GBP]/Euro) and patient-reported outcomes were sourced from DELIVER. Future values of costs and effects were discounted according to country-specific rates. In the UK, dapagliflozin treatment was predicted to increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life-years by 0.231 and 0.354, respectively, and extend the time spent in the best quartile of KCCQ-TSS by 4.2 months. Comparable outcomes were projected for Germany and Spain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £7761, €9540 and €5343/QALY in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively. According to regional willingness-to-pay thresholds, 91%, 89% and 92% of simulations in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively, were cost-effective following probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Dapagliflozin, added to usual care, is very likely cost-effective for HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction in several European countries.

Estimating the value of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors within the context of contemporary guidelines and the totality of evidence.

AIMS: To comprehensively estimate the cost-effectiveness of sodium glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor usage in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at established clinical review points, incorporating the totality of proven health benefits. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study considered the cardio- and reno-protective effects of SGLT2 inhibitors using the Cardiff type 2 diabetes model. Conventional cost-effectiveness evaluations were undertaken for eligible populations at relevant intensification points reflecting the 2022 guidelines versus the 2015 National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio lifetime trajectories and timepoints for complete cost-offset were estimated for each pathway. Treatment effects, utility decrements and costs (applied additively and discounted at 3.5%) were sourced from the published literature. RESULTS: For all subpopulations on treatment pathways reflecting the NG28-2022 guidelines, SGLT2 inhibitor introduction was cost-effective, becoming cost-saving between 2 and 16 years post-initiation. Despite increases in pharmacy costs, predicted lifetime costs were lower than for pathways reflecting the NG28-2015 guidelines, driven by a reduction in heart failure hospitalization and chronic kidney disease costs. Incremental gains in quality-adjusted life years (ranging from 0.58-1.12) resulted in dominance for the updated NG28-2022 guidance in all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that SGLT2 inhibitors have the potential to lower healthcare costs while improving health outcomes in eligible patient subpopulations.

Cost-effectiveness of immediate initiation of dapagliflozin in patients with a history of heart failure.

AIMS: To compare the cost-effectiveness of immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin treatment in patients with a history of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from the UK, Canadian, German, and Spanish healthcare perspectives. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision-analytic Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores, type 2 diabetes mellitus status and incidence of heart failure (HF) events. Patient-level data for patients with prior HHF from the Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) trial were used to inform the model inputs on clinical events and utility values. Healthcare costs were sourced from the relevant national reference databases and the published literature. Compared to standard therapy, immediate initiation of dapagliflozin decreased HHF (187 events), urgent HF visits (32 events) and cardiovascular mortality (18 events). Standard therapy was associated with lifetime costs of £13 224 and 4.02 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Twelve-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin was associated with total discounted lifetime costs and QALYs of £16 660 and 4.61, respectively, compared to £16 912 and 4.66, respectively, for immediate initiation. Compared to standard therapy, immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5779 and £5821, respectively. Compared to 12-month delayed initiation, immediate initiation of dapagliflozin had an ICER of £5263. Results were similar from the Canadian, German, and Spanish healthcare perspectives. CONCLUSION: Both immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin are cost-effective. However, immediate initiation provides greater clinical benefits, with almost 10% additional QALYs gain, compared to 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin and should be considered standard of care.

Impact of ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after heart failure hospitalization: a European multinational economic evaluation.

AIMS: Iron deficiency (ID) is comorbid in up to 50% patients with heart failure (HF) and exacerbates disease burden. Ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) reduced HF hospitalizations and improved quality of life when used to treat ID at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute HF with left ventricular ejection fraction <50% in the AFFIRM-AHF trial. We quantified the effect of FCM on burden of disease and the wider pharmacoeconomic implications in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS: The per country eligible population was calculated, aligning with the 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF guidelines and the AFFIRM-AHF trial. Changes in burden of disease with FCM versus standard of care (SoC) were represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), hospitalization episodes and bed days, using AFFIRM-AHF data. A Markov model was adapted to each country to estimate cost-effectiveness and combined with epidemiology data to calculate the impact on healthcare budgets. Between 335 (Sweden) and 13 237 (Germany) DALYs were predicted to be avoided with FCM use annually. Fewer hospitalizations and shorter lengths of stay associated with FCM compared to SoC were projected to result in substantial annual savings in bed days, from 5215 in Sweden to 205 630 in Germany. In all countries, FCM was predicted to be dominant (cost saving with gains in quality-adjusted life years), resulting in net savings to healthcare budgets within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive evaluation of FCM therapy highlights the potential benefits that could be realized through implementation of the ESC HF guideline recommendations regarding ID treatment.

Clinical and economic impact of ferric carboxymaltose treatment for iron deficiency in patients stabilized following acute heart failure: a multinational study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate clinical events and evaluate the financial implications of introducing ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) to treat iron deficiency (ID) at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% in the UK, Switzerland and Italy. METHODS: A decision analytic cost-offset model was developed to evaluate the costs associated with introducing FCM for all eligible patients in three countries compared to a world without FCM, over a five-year time horizon. Data from AFFIRM-AHF clinical trial were used to model clinical outcomes, using an established cohort state-transition Markov model. Country-specific prevalence estimates were derived using data from real-world studies to extrapolate number of events and consequent cost totals to the population at risk on a national scale. RESULTS: The cost-offset modeling demonstrated that FCM is projected to be a cost-saving intervention in all three country settings over a five-year time horizon. Savings were driven primarily by reduced hospitalizations and avoided cardiovascular deaths, with net cost savings of -£14,008,238, -CHF25,456,455 and -€105,295,146 incurred to the UK, Switzerland and Italy, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Although AFFIRM-AHF was a multinational trial, efficacy data per country was not sufficiently large to enable country-specific analysis, therefore overall clinical parameters have been assumed to apply to all countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides further evidence of the potential cost savings achievable by treating ID with FCM at discharge in patients hospitalized for AHF with LVEF <50%. The value of FCM treatment within the healthcare systems of the UK, Switzerland and Italy was demonstrated even within a limited time frame of one year, with consistent cost savings indicated over a longer term.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin as a Treatment for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Health-Economic Analysis of DAPA-CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: CKD imposes a significant burden on patients and health care providers, particularly upon reaching kidney failure when patients may require KRT. The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial demonstrated that dapagliflozin, with standard therapy, reduced CKD progression and KRT requirement. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for the treatment of CKD from payer perspectives in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We constructed a lifetime Markov model to characterize outcomes in patients with CKD on the basis of the DAPA-CKD trial. Health states were defined by eGFR level and KRT type. Direct health care costs and utility values were sourced from published literature and the DAPA-CKD trial, respectively. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum in the United Kingdom and 3% in Germany and Spain. RESULTS: In patients eligible for the DAPA-CKD trial, treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to reduce rates of CKD progression, with patients predicted to spend 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.8 to 2.4) more years in the eGFR range 15-89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 versus standard therapy alone (12.1; 95% credibility interval, 8.9 to 14.1 versus 10.4; 95% credibility interval, 7.7 to 12.4 years). Life expectancy (undiscounted) was correspondingly predicted to increase by 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.7 to 2.5) years (15.5; 95% credibility interval, 11.1 to 18.2 versus 13.8; 95% credibility interval, 9.9 to 16.5 years). This in addition to reduced incidence of adverse clinical outcomes, including hospitalization for heart failure, resulted in modeled quality-adjusted life year (discounted) gains between 0.82 (95% credibility interval, 0.38 to 1.18) and 1.00 (95% credibility interval, 0.46 to 1.41). These gains translated to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $8280, $17,623, and $11,687 in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, respectively, indicating cost-effectiveness at willingness-to-pay thresholds (United Kingdom: $27,510 per quality-adjusted life year; Germany and Spain: $35,503 per quality-adjusted life year). CONCLUSIONS: In patients meeting the eligibility requirements for the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment within the UK, German, and Spanish health care systems. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD), NCT03036150.

Cost effectiveness of sodium zirconium cyclosilicate for the treatment of hyperkalaemia in patients with CKD in Norway and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalaemia is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with a range of adverse outcomes. Historically, options for management of chronic hyperkalaemia in the outpatient setting have been limited. Novel oral potassium binders provide a safe, effective therapy for maintenance of normokalaemia in patients with CKD, but despite being approved for reimbursement in many countries, prescription data indicate uptake has been slower than anticipated. This analysis aimed to demonstrate the value to patients and the healthcare system of the potassium binder sodium zirconium cyclosilicate (SZC) for treatment of hyperkalaemia in patients with CKD in Norway and Sweden. METHODS: A published simulation model reflecting the natural history of CKD was adapted to the Norwegian and Swedish settings and used to predict long-term health economic outcomes of treating hyperkalaemia with SZC versus usual care. RESULTS: SZC was highly cost effective compared to usual care in Norway and Sweden, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of €14,838/QALY in Norway and €14,352/QALY in Sweden, over a lifetime horizon. The acquisition cost of SZC was largely offset by cost savings associated with reductions in hyperkalaemia events and hospitalisations; a modest overall increase in costs was predominantly attributable to costs associated with gains in life years compared with usual care. SZC remained cost effective in all scenarios examined. CONCLUSIONS: SZC was estimated to be cost effective for treating hyperkalaemia. Consequently, improving access to a clinically effective, safe and cost-effective therapy, such as SZC, may result in considerable benefits for CKD patients with hyperkalaemia.

Cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease: a European economic evaluation of the THEMIS trial.

AIMS: To conduct a health economic evaluation of ticagrelor in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) from a multinational payer perspective. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of ticagrelor were evaluated in the overall effect of Ticagrelor on Health Outcomes in Diabetes Mellitus Patients Intervention Study (THEMIS) trial population and in the predefined patient group with prior percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model was developed to extrapolate patient outcomes over a lifetime horizon. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), which were compared with conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds [€47 000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in Sweden and €30 000/QALY in other countries].Treatment with ticagrelor resulted in QALY gains of up to 0.045 in the overall population and 0.099 in patients with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Increased costs and benefits translated to ICERs ranged between €27 894 and €42 252/QALY across Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain in the overall population. In patients with prior PCI, estimated ICERs improved to €18 449, €20 632, €20 233, and €13 228/QALY in Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain, respectively, driven by higher event rates and treatment benefit. CONCLUSION: Based on THEMIS results, ticagrelor plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone may be cost-effective in some European countries in patients with T2DM and CAD and no prior myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. Additionally, ticagrelor is likely to be cost-effective across European countries in patients with a history of PCI.

Cardiorenal disease in the United States: Future health care burden and potential impact of novel therapies.

BACKGROUND: Currently, concerted efforts to identify, prevent, and treat type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) comorbidities are lacking at the institutional level, with emphasis placed on individual specialties. An integrated approach to tackle T2DM, HF, and CKD within the context of cardiorenal disease has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce costs at the system level. OBJECTIVE: To synthesize published evidence describing the burden of those diagnosed with T2DM, HF, and CKD in the United States as individual discrete chronic conditions, in order to evaluate the potential economic impact of novel therapies in this population. METHODS: We developed a compartmental Markov model with an annual time cycle to model an evolving prevalent US patient population with T2DM, HF, or CKD over the period 2021-2030 (either in isolation or combined). The model was used to explore the potential impact of novel therapies such as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on future disease burden, by extrapolating the results of relevant clinical trials to representative patient populations. RESULTS: The model estimates that total prevalence across all disease states will have increased by 28% in 2030. Cumulatively, the direct health care cost of cardiorenal disease between 2021 and 2030 is estimated at $4.8 trillion. However, treatment with dapagliflozin has the potential to reduce disease prevalence by 8.0% and estimated cumulative service delivery costs by 3.6% by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Considering a holistic approach when managing patients with cardiorenal disease offers an opportunity to reduce the disease burden over the next 10 years in the US population. DISCLOSURES: This work was funded by AstraZeneca, which provided support for data analysis. McEwan, Morgan, and Boyce are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK, which received fees from AstraZeneca in relation to this study. Song and Huang are employees of AstraZeneca. Bergenheim is an employee of AstraZeneca and holds AstraZeneca stocks/stock options. Green has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge.

BACKGROUND: Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. METHODS: Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. RESULTS: Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Estimating the Economic and Clinical Value of Reducing Antimicrobial Resistance to Three Gram-negative Pathogens in Japan.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a significant global public health crisis. Despite ample availability of Gram-positive antibiotics, there is a distinct lack of agents against Gram-negative pathogens, including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales, which remains a real threat in Japan. The AMR Action Plans aim to mitigate the growing public health concern posed by AMR. Objective: This study aims to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of drug-resistant Gram-negative pathogens forecasts for Japan to guide resource allocation defined within the upcoming National AMR Action Plan. Methods: A previously published and validated dynamic health economic model was adapted to the Japanese setting. The model used a 10-year time horizon with a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5 000 000 (US $46 827) and discounting was applied at a rate of 2% to costs and benefits. Clinical and economic outcomes were assessed as a function of varying AMR levels of three Gram-negative pathogens in Japan by up to 100% of the current level. Results: Reducing drug-resistant Gram-negative pathogens in Japan has the potential to save 4 249 096 life years, corresponding to 3 602 311 quality-adjusted life years. The associated maximum clinical and economic gains were estimated at up to 4 422 284 bed days saved, up to 3 645 480 defined daily doses of antibiotics avoided, up to ¥117.6 billion (US $1.1 billion) saved in hospitalization costs, and a net monetary benefit of up to ¥18.1 trillion (US $169.8 billion). Discussion: Learnings from this study can be used by the Japanese government to help inform decision-making on the strategies that may be included in the upcoming National AMR Action Plan and facilitate allocation of the required budget. Conclusions: This analysis demonstrated the considerable economic and clinical value of reducing AMR levels of three Gram-negative pathogens in Japan and could be utilized to support the valuation of antimicrobial treatment and resistance in Japan and more broadly.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening for Hepatitis C Virus in Iraq in the Era of Simplified Testing and Treatment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Recent advances in hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostic testing methods allow for a one-stop simplified 'test and cure' approach. The cost effectiveness of incorporating this simplified approach into HCV screening in Iraq remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different HCV testing and diagnostic approaches, and screening strategies in Iraq from a health service perspective. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using a hybrid model comprising a screening decision tree linked to a lifetime Markov model to estimate outcomes in HCV-infected people. Cost and utility estimates were sourced from the published literature and expert guidance provided by clinicians and policy makers in Iraq. Cost estimates were reported in 2019 USD or 2019 Iraqi Dinar and both costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually. RESULTS: Strategies using a simplified approach were found to be cost saving in addition to improving patient outcomes when compared with a standard testing and diagnostic approach. When considering risk-based screening, a simplified approach was associated with a total cost saving of Iraqi Dinar 4375 billion (USD 3.7 billion) and per patient life-year and quality-adjusted life-year gains of 0.30 and 0.55, compared with a standard approach. Benefits and cost savings were driven by a 32.2% and 23.6% reduction in the incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Estimated benefits and cost savings increased under total population screening. All screening and testing and diagnostic approaches were cost effective compared with a no screening scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the detection of HCV combined with a simplified one-stop testing and diagnostic approach represents an opportunity to reduce the burden of HCV in Iraq and may play a significant role in meeting World Health Organisation HCV elimination targets.

Ferric carboxymaltose for the treatment of iron deficiency in heart failure: a multinational cost-effectiveness analysis utilising AFFIRM-AHF.

AIMS: Iron deficiency is common in patients with heart failure (HF). In AFFIRM-AHF, ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) reduced the risk of hospitalisations for HF (HHF) and improved quality of life vs. placebo in iron-deficient patients with a recent episode of acute HF. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of FCM compared with placebo in iron-deficient patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, stabilised after an episode of acute HF, using data from the AFFIRM-AHF trial from Italian, UK, US and Swiss payer perspectives. METHODS AND RESULTS: A lifetime Markov model was built to characterise outcomes in patients according to the AFFIRM-AHF trial. Health states were defined using the 12-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12). Subsequent HHF were incorporated using a negative binomial regression model with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality incorporated via parametric survival analysis. Direct healthcare costs (2020 GBP/USD/EUR/CHF) and utility values were sourced from published literature and AFFIRM-AHF. Modelled outcomes indicated that treatment with FCM was dominant (cost saving with additional health gains) in the UK, USA and Switzerland, and highly cost-effective in Italy [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) EUR 1269 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)]. Results were driven by reduced costs for HHF events combined with QALY gains of 0.43-0.44, attributable to increased time in higher KCCQ states (representing better functional outcomes). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses demonstrated data robustness, with the ICER remaining dominant or highly cost-effective under a wide range of scenarios, including increasing treatment costs and various patient subgroups, despite a moderate increase in costs for de novo HF and smaller QALY gains for ischaemic aetiology. CONCLUSION: Ferric carboxymaltose is estimated to be a highly cost-effective treatment across countries (Italy, UK, USA and Switzerland) representing different healthcare systems.

Costs and Healthcare Resource Use Associated with Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: Evidence from a Systematic Literature Review.

INTRODUCTION: The management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) costs in excess of $114 billion in the USA and £1.45 billion in the UK annually and is projected to increase alongside the increasing disease prevalence. The aim of this review was to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity, CV mortality or all-cause mortality based on KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) 2012 categorisations and estimate the additional costs and healthcare resource utilisation associated with CV morbidity linked to CKD severity in US and UK settings. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted of studies reporting on the risk of CV morbidity, CV mortality or all-cause mortality characterised by CKD severity (published between January 2000 and September 2018). Additional costs and bed days associated with CKD severity in the USA and UK were estimated on the basis of median hazard ratios for CV morbidity risk at each CKD and albuminuria stage. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies reported risk of adverse clinical outcomes based on KDIGO categorisations. Compared to stage 1 (or without) CKD, patients with stage 5 CKD and macroalbuminuria experienced a relative risk increase of 11.77-12.46 across all outcomes. Additional costs and bed days associated with stage 5 CKD and macroalbuminuria (versus stage 1 (or without) CKD) per 1000 patient years were US$3.93 million and 803 bed days and £435,000 and 1017 bed days, in the USA and UK, respectively. CONCLUSION: Risks of adverse clinical outcomes increase with CKD and albuminuria severity and are associated with substantial additional costs and resource utilisation. Thus, early diagnosis and proactive management of CKD and its complications should be a priority for healthcare providers to alleviate the burden of CV morbidity and its management on healthcare resources.

The cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in treating high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: An economic evaluation using data from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial.

AIM: To undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin in treating high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using both directly observed events in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial and surrogate risk factors to predict endpoints not captured within the trial. METHODS: An established T2DM model was adapted to integrate survival curves derived from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial, and extrapolated over a lifetime for all-cause mortality, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, and end-stage kidney disease. The economic analysis considered the overall DECLARE trial population, as well as reported patient subgroups. Total and incremental costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years associated with dapagliflozin versus placebo were estimated from the perspective of the UK healthcare payer. RESULTS: In the UK setting, treatment with dapagliflozin compared to placebo was estimated to be dominant, with an expected increase in quality-adjusted life-years from 10.43 to 10.48 (+0.06) and a reduction in lifetime total costs from £39 451 to £36 899 (-£2552). Across all patient subgroups, dapagliflozin was estimated to be dominant, with the greatest absolute benefit in the prior heart failure subgroup (incremental lifetime costs -£4150 and quality-adjusted life-years +0.11). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that dapagliflozin compared to placebo appears to be cost-effective, when considering evidence reported from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial, at established UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. The findings highlight the potential of dapagliflozin to have a meaningful impact in reducing the economic burden of T2DM and its associated complications across a broad T2DM population.

Evaluating the Ability of Economic Models of Diabetes to Simulate New Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials: A Report on the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge.

OBJECTIVES: The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication. METHODS: Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class. RESULTS: Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME-calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit. CONCLUSIONS: The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.