Benefits, harms, and costs of newborn genetic screening for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Estimates from the PreEMPT model.

PURPOSE: Population newborn genetic screening for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is feasible, however its benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness are uncertain. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to simulate a US birth cohort of 3.7 million newborns. Those identified with pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants associated with increased risk of HCM underwent surveillance and recommended treatment, whereas in usual care, individuals with family histories of HCM underwent surveillance. RESULTS: In a cohort of 3.7 million newborns, newborn genetic screening would reduce HCM-related deaths through age 20 years by 44 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 10-103) however increase the numbers of children undergoing surveillance by 8127 (95% UI = 6308-9664). Compared with usual care, newborn genetic screening costs $267,000 per life year saved (95% UI, $106,000 to $919,000 per life year saved). CONCLUSION: Newborn genetic screening for HCM could prevent deaths but at a high cost and would require many healthy children to undergo surveillance. This study shows how modeling can provide insights into the tradeoffs between benefits and costs that will need to be considered as newborn genetic screening is more widely adopted.

Population-Based Newborn Screening for Germline TP53 Variants: Clinical Benefits, Cost-Effectiveness, and Value of Further Research.

BACKGROUND: Identification of children and infants with Li-Fraumeni syndrome prompts tumor surveillance and allows potential early cancer detection. We assessed the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of population-wide newborn screening for TP53 variants (TP53-NBS). METHODS: We simulated the impact of TP53-NBS using data regarding TP53-associated pediatric cancers and pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) TP53 variants from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; ClinVar and gnomAD; and clinical studies. We simulated an annual US birth cohort under usual care and TP53-NBS and estimated clinical benefits, life-years, and costs associated with usual care and TP53-NBS. RESULTS: Under usual care, of 4 million newborns, 608 (uncertainty interval [UI] = 581-636) individuals would develop TP53-associated cancers before age 20 years. Under TP53-NBS, 894 individuals would have P/LP TP53 variants detected. These individuals would undergo routine surveillance after detection of P/LP TP53 variants decreasing the number of cancer-related deaths by 7.2% (UI = 4.0%-12.1%) overall via early malignancy detection. Compared with usual care, TP53-NBS had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $106 009 per life-year gained. Probabilistic analysis estimated a 40% probability that TP53-NBS would be cost-effective given a $100 000 per life-year gained willingness-to-pay threshold. Using this threshold, a value of information analysis found that additional research on the prevalence of TP53 variants among rhabdomyosarcoma cases would resolve most of the decision uncertainty, resulting in an expected benefit of 349 life-years gained (or $36.6 million). CONCLUSIONS: We found that TP53-NBS could be cost-effective; however, our findings suggest that further research is needed to reduce the uncertainty in the potential health outcomes and costs associated with TP53-NBS.

Universal newborn genetic screening for pediatric cancer predisposition syndromes: model-based insights.

PURPOSE: Genetic testing for pediatric cancer predisposition syndromes (CPS) could augment newborn screening programs, but with uncertain benefits and costs. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to evaluate universal screening for a CPS panel. Cohorts of US newborns were simulated under universal screening versus usual care. Using data from clinical studies, ClinVar, and gnomAD, the presence of pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in RET, RB1, TP53, DICER1, SUFU, PTCH1, SMARCB1, WT1, APC, ALK, and PHOX2B were assigned at birth. Newborns with identified variants underwent guideline surveillance. Survival benefit was modeled via reductions in advanced disease, cancer deaths, and treatment-related late mortality, assuming 100% adherence. RESULTS: Among 3.7 million newborns, under usual care, 1,803 developed a CPS malignancy before age 20. With universal screening, 13.3% were identified at birth as at-risk due to P/LP variant detection and underwent surveillance, resulting in a 53.5% decrease in cancer deaths in P/LP heterozygotes and a 7.8% decrease among the entire cohort before age 20. Given a test cost of $55, universal screening cost $244,860 per life-year gained; with a $20 test, the cost fell to $99,430 per life-year gained. CONCLUSION: Population-based genetic testing of newborns may reduce mortality associated with pediatric cancers and could be cost-effective as sequencing costs decline.

Cost Analysis of a Randomized Trial of Early Palliative Care in Patients with Metastatic Nonsmall-Cell Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several trials have shown that integrated palliative and oncology care improves quality of life and mood in patients with advanced cancers. However, the degree to which early involvement of palliative care (PC) in the outpatient setting impacts the cost of care remains unknown. METHODS: Data for this secondary analysis came from a trial of 151 patients with metastatic nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were randomized to early PC integrated with standard oncology care (SC) or SC alone. We abstracted costs for hospital and outpatient care, including intravenous chemotherapy, from the hospital accounting system. Oral chemotherapy costs were estimated based on actual drug costs. To estimate hospice costs, we used Medicare reimbursement rates. We examined between-group differences in costs of care throughout the entire study period and during the last 30 days before death using the bootstrap-t method. RESULTS: The analytic sample includes the 138/151 patients who died by July 15, 2013. Early PC was associated with a lower mean total cost per day of $117 (p = 0.13) compared to SC. In the final 30 days of life, patients in the early PC group incurred higher hospice care costs (mean difference = $1,053; p = 0.07), while expenses for chemotherapy were less (mean difference = $757; p = 0.03). Costs for emergency department visits and hospitalizations did not differ significantly between groups over the course of the study or at the end of life. CONCLUSIONS: The delivery of early PC does not appear to increase overall medical care expenses for patients with metastatic NSCLC. Larger, sufficiently powered cost studies of early PC are needed.

Combined Biomarker and Computed Tomography Screening Strategies for Lung Cancer: Projections of Health and Economic Tradeoffs in the US Population.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening with computed tomography (CT) of individuals who meet certain age and smoking history criteria is the current standard-of-care. METHODS: Using a published simulation model, we compared outcomes associated with seven biomarker+CT screening strategies to CT screening alone using CMS eligibility criteria. We assumed that the biomarker: had conditionally independent performance; was used for first-line screening in some, or all, individuals screened; and could be extended to CMS-ineligible smokers. Strategies differed by inclusion criteria (e.g. pack-years) and proportion of individuals for whom CT remained the first-line test. Each model run simulated a combined cohort of one million men and one million women born in 1950. Primary outcomes were cancer-specific mortality reduction and screening costs; biomarker costs were measured relative to CT. Efficiency frontiers identified optimal health and economic trade-offs. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the stability of results. RESULTS: Standard-of-care screening yielded an 8.3% cancer-specific mortality reduction in the simulated U.S. population (screened+unscreened individuals). For a biomarker test with 75% sensitivity and 95% specificity, mortality reductions across biomarker+CT strategies ranged from 7.0% to 23.9%. If the biomarker's cost was >0.86× that of CT, standard-of-care screening remained on the efficiency frontier, indicating that health and economic trade-offs were equally (or more) efficient relative to all biomarker+CT strategies. Biomarker+CT strategy costs were principally driven by biomarker specificity; mortality reduction was driven by sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Combined biomarker+CT strategies have the potential to improve future lung cancer screening effectiveness in the U.S. and achieve economic efficiency that is greater than the current standard-of-care.

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds. METHODS: We used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy. RESULTS: Programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility. CONCLUSIONS: Current and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population.

Catalog and comparison of societal preferences (utilities) for lung cancer health states: results from the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study.

BACKGROUND: The EQ-5D and SF-6D are 2 health-related quality-of-life indexes that provide preference-weighted measures for use in cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: The National Cancer Institute's Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) Consortium included the EQ-5D and SF-12v2 in their survey of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients. Utilities were calculated from patient-provided scores for each domain of the EQ-5D or the SF-6D. Utilities were calculated for categories of cancer type, stage, and treatment. RESULTS: There were 5015 enrolled lung cancer patients with a baseline survey in CanCORS; 2396 (47.8%) completed the EQ-5D, and 2344 (46.7%) also completed the SF-12v2. The mean (standard deviation) utility from the EQ-5D was 0.78 (0.18), and from the SF-6D (derived from SF-12v2) was 0.68 (0.14). The EQ-5D demonstrated a ceiling effect, with 20% of patients reporting perfect scores, translating to a utility of 1.0. No substantial SF-6D floor effects were noted. Utilities increased with age and decreased with stage and comorbidities. Patient-reported (EQ-5D) visual analog scale scores for health status had a moderate (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001) positive correlation with utilities. A subset (n = 1474) completed follow-up EQ-5D questionnaires 11-13 months after diagnosis. Among these patients, there was a nonsignificant decrease in mean utility for stage IV and an increase in mean utility for stages I, II, and III. CONCLUSION: This study generated a catalog of community-weighted utilities applicable to societal-perspective cost-effectiveness analyses of lung cancer interventions and compared utilities based on the EQ-5D and SF-6D. Potential users of these scores should be aware of the limitations and think carefully about their use in specific studies.

Cost-effectiveness of follow-up of pulmonary nodules incidentally detected on cardiac computed tomographic angiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary nodules (PNs) are often detected incidentally during coronary computed tomographic (CT) angiography, which is increasingly being used to evaluate patients with chest pain symptoms. However, the efficiency of following up on incidentally detected PN is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We determined demographic and clinical characteristics of stable symptomatic patients referred for coronary CT angiography in whom incidentally detected PNs warranted follow-up. A validated lung cancer simulation model was populated with data from these patients, and clinical and economic consequences of follow-up per Fleischner guidelines versus no follow-up were simulated. Of the 3665 patients referred for coronary CT angiography, 591 (16%) had PNs requiring follow-up. The mean age of patients with PNs was 59±10 years; 66% were male; 67% had ever smoked; and 21% had obstructive coronary artery disease. The projected overall lung cancer incidence was 5.8% in these patients, but the majority died of coronary artery disease (38%) and other causes (57%). Follow-up of PNs was associated with a 4.6% relative reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality (absolute mortality: follow-up, 4.33% versus non-follow-up, 4.54%), more downstream testing (follow-up, 2.34 CTs per patient versus non-follow-up, 1.01 CTs per patient), and an average increase in quality-adjusted life of 7 days. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained were $154 700 to follow up the entire cohort and $129 800 per quality-adjusted life-year when only smokers were included. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up of PNs incidentally detected in patients undergoing coronary CT angiography for chest pain evaluation is associated with a small reduction in lung cancer mortality. However, significant downstream testing contributes to limited efficiency, as demonstrated by a high cost per quality-adjusted life-year, especially in nonsmokers.

Annual financial impact of well-differentiated thyroid cancer care in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC) is a prevalent disease, which is increasing in incidence faster than any other cancer. Substantial direct medical care costs are related to the diagnosis and treatment of newly diagnosed patients as well as the ongoing surveillance of patients who have a long life expectancy. Prior analyses of the aggregate health care costs attributable to WDTC in the United States have not been reported. METHODS: A stacked cohort cost analysis was performed on the US population from 1985 to 2013 to estimate the number of WDTC survivors in 2013. Incidence rates, and cancer-specific and overall survival were based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Current and projected direct medical care costs attributable to the care of patients with WDTC were then estimated. Health care-related costs and event probabilities were based on Medicare reimbursement schedules and the literature. RESULTS: Estimated overall societal cost of WDTC care in 2013 for all US patients diagnosed after 1985 is $1.6 billion. Diagnosis, surgery, and adjuvant therapy for newly diagnosed patients (41%) constitutes the greatest proportion of costs, followed by surveillance of survivors (37%), and nonoperative death costs attributable to thyroid cancer care (22%). Projected 2030 costs (in 2013 US dollars) based on current incidence trends exceed $3.5 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Health care costs of WDTC are substantial. Unlike other cancers, the majority of the cost is incurred in the initial and continuing phases of care. With the projected increasing incidence, population, and survival trends, costs will continue to escalate.

Benefits and harms of computed tomography lung cancer screening strategies: a comparative modeling study for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

BACKGROUND: The optimum screening policy for lung cancer is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To identify efficient computed tomography (CT) screening scenarios in which relatively more lung cancer deaths are averted for fewer CT screening examinations. DESIGN: Comparative modeling study using 5 independent models. DATA SOURCES: The National Lung Screening Trial; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening trial; the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program; and the U.S. Smoking History Generator. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. cohort born in 1950. TIME HORIZON: Cohort followed from ages 45 to 90 years. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: 576 scenarios with varying eligibility criteria (age, pack-years of smoking, years since quitting) and screening intervals. OUTCOME MEASURES: Benefits included lung cancer deaths averted or life-years gained. Harms included CT examinations, false-positive results (including those obtained from biopsy/surgery), overdiagnosed cases, and radiation-related deaths. RESULTS OF BEST-CASE SCENARIO: The most advantageous strategy was annual screening from ages 55 through 80 years for ever-smokers with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years and ex-smokers with less than 15 years since quitting. It would lead to 50% (model ranges, 45% to 54%) of cases of cancer being detected at an early stage (stage I/II), 575 screening examinations per lung cancer death averted, a 14% (range, 8.2% to 23.5%) reduction in lung cancer mortality, 497 lung cancer deaths averted, and 5250 life-years gained per the 100,000-member cohort. Harms would include 67,550 false-positive test results, 910 biopsies or surgeries for benign lesions, and 190 overdiagnosed cases of cancer (3.7% of all cases of lung cancer [model ranges, 1.4% to 8.3%]). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The number of cancer deaths averted for the scenario varied across models between 177 and 862; the number of overdiagnosed cases of cancer varied between 72 and 426. LIMITATIONS: Scenarios assumed 100% screening adherence. Data derived from trials with short duration were extrapolated to lifetime follow-up. CONCLUSION: Annual CT screening for lung cancer has a favorable benefit-harm ratio for individuals aged 55 through 80 years with 30 or more pack-years' exposure to smoking. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Assessing child care providers' knowledge and attitudes regarding support of breastfeeding in a region with low breastfeeding prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Working mothers who place their infants into out-of-home child care face many challenges to sustaining breastfeeding. Child care providers, who are in frequent close contact with young families, may be potential resources for promoting breastfeeding. OBJECTIVES: This study focused on identifying child care providers' attitudes toward and knowledge about breastfeeding as well as providers' perceptions about strategies to increase breastfeeding rates among mothers of infants in child care centers. METHODS: Seventy-five providers from 11 child care centers in the Baton Rouge, Louisiana, area were surveyed using paper and pencil questionnaires. Self-reported demographics, attitudes, knowledge, and perceptions about breastfeeding were collected. RESULTS: Responses demonstrated a generally positive attitude toward breastfeeding among child care providers but a knowledge deficit in terms of the health impacts and proper handling of breast milk. A minority of providers reported that their center's staff currently receives breastfeeding education, but most providers believed that measures to promote the use of breast milk in their center should target parents rather than the center staff. CONCLUSION: Child care providers need resources about the benefits of human milk, proper handling of expressed milk, and ways to make centers more breastfeeding friendly. Many providers feel ineffective in supporting breastfeeding and are unaware of the role they may play in mothers' infant feeding decisions. Though child care providers do not appear to believe they can influence parents' decisions about breastfeeding, educating and empowering them could play an important role in increasing breastfeeding rates.

Observation versus initial treatment for men with localized, low-risk prostate cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Observation is underutilized among men with localized, low-risk prostate cancer. OBJECTIVE: To assess the costs and benefits of observation versus initial treatment. DESIGN: Decision analysis simulating treatment or observation. DATA SOURCES: Medicare schedules, published literature. TARGET POPULATION: Men aged 65 and 75 years who had newly diagnosed low-risk prostate cancer (prostate-specific antigen level <10 µg/L, stage ≤T2a, Gleason score ≤3 + 3). TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: Treatment (brachytherapy, intensity-modulated radiation therapy, or radical prostatectomy) or observation (active surveillance [AS] or watchful waiting [WW]). OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life expectancy and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Observation was more effective and less costly than initial treatment. Compared with AS, WW provided 2 additional months of quality-adjusted life expectancy (9.02 vs. 8.85 years) at a savings of $15,374 ($24,520 vs. $39,894) in men aged 65 years and 2 additional months (6.14 vs. 5.98 years) at a savings of $11,746 ($18,302 vs. $30,048) in men aged 75 years. Brachytherapy was the most effective and least expensive initial treatment. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Treatment became more effective than observation when it led to more dramatic reductions in prostate cancer death (hazard ratio, 0.47 vs. WW and 0.64 vs. AS). Active surveillance became as effective as WW in men aged 65 years when the probability of progressing to treatment on AS decreased below 63% or when the quality of life with AS versus WW was 4% higher in men aged 65 years or 1% higher in men aged 75 years. Watchful waiting remained least expensive in all analyses. LIMITATION: Results depend on outcomes reported in the published literature, which is limited. CONCLUSION: Among these men, observation is more effective and costs less than initial treatment, and WW is most effective and least expensive under a wide range of clinical scenarios. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute, U.S. Department of Defense, Prostate Cancer Foundation, and Institute for Clinical and Economic Review.

Cost-effectiveness of alternating magnetic resonance imaging and digital mammography screening in BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines recommend earlier, more intensive breast cancer screening with both magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and mammography for women with breast cancer susceptibility gene (BRCA) mutations. Unspecified details of screening schedules are a challenge for implementing guidelines. METHODS: A Markov Monte Carlo computer model was used to simulate screening in asymptomatic women who were BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Three dual-modality strategies were compared with digital mammography (DM) alone: 1) DM and MRI alternating at 6-month intervals beginning at age 25 years (Alt25), 2) annual MRI beginning at age 25 years with alternating DM added at age 30 years (MRI25/Alt30), and 3) DM and MRI alternating at 6-month intervals beginning at age 30 years (Alt30). Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (in 2010 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness (dollars per QALY gained). Additional outcomes included potential harms of screening, and lifetime costs stratified into component categories (screening and diagnosis, treatment, mortality, and patient time costs). RESULTS: All 3 dual-modality screening strategies increased QALYs and costs. Alt30 screening had the lowest incremental costs per additional QALY gained (BRCA1, $74,200 per QALY; BRCA2, $215,700 per QALY). False-positive test results increased substantially with dual-modality screening and occurred more frequently in BRCA2 carriers. Downstream savings in both breast cancer treatment and mortality costs were outweighed by increases in up-front screening and diagnosis costs. The results were influenced most by estimates of breast cancer risk and MRI costs. CONCLUSIONS: Alternating MRI and DM screening at 6-month intervals beginning at age 30 years was identified as a clinically effective approach to applying current guidelines, and was more cost-effective in BRCA1 gene mutation carriers compared with BRCA2 gene mutation carriers.

Using radiation risk models in cancer screening simulations: important assumptions and effects on outcome projections.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer-specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer-specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. CONCLUSION: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging.

Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography screening for lung cancer in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: A randomized trial has demonstrated that lung cancer screening reduces mortality. Identifying participant and program characteristics that influence the cost-effectiveness of screening will help translate trial results into benefits at the population level. METHODS: Six U.S. cohorts (men and women aged 50, 60, or 70 years) were simulated in an existing patient-level lung cancer model. Smoking histories reflected observed U.S. patterns. We simulated lifetime histories of 500,000 identical individuals per cohort in each scenario. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained ($/QALY) were estimated for each program: computed tomography screening; stand-alone smoking cessation therapies (4-30% 1-year abstinence); and combined programs. RESULTS: Annual screening of current and former smokers aged 50 to 74 years costs between $126,000 and $169,000/QALY (minimum 20 pack-years of smoking) or $110,000 and $166,000/QALY (40 pack-year minimum), when compared with no screening and assuming background quit rates. Screening was beneficial but had a higher cost per QALY when the model included radiation-induced lung cancers. If screen participation doubled background quit rates, the cost of annual screening (at age 50 years, 20 pack-year minimum) was below $75,000/QALY. If screen participation halved background quit rates, benefits from screening were nearly erased. If screening had no effect on quit rates, annual screening costs more but provided fewer QALYs than annual cessation therapies. Annual combined screening/cessation therapy programs at age 50 years costs $130,500 to $159,700/QALY, when compared with annual stand-alone cessation. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of computed tomography screening will likely be strongly linked to achievable smoking cessation rates. Trials and further modeling should explore the consequences of relationships between smoking behaviors and screen participation.

Abdominopelvic CT increases diagnostic certainty and guides management decisions: a prospective investigation of 584 patients in a large academic medical center.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to prospectively determine how CT affects physicians' diagnostic certainty and management decisions in the setting of patients with nontraumatic abdominal complaints presenting to the emergency department. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We included 584 patients presenting with nontraumatic abdominal complaints to the emergency department from November 2006 through February 2008. Emergency department clinicians were prospectively surveyed both before abdominal CT (pre-CT) and after abdominal CT (post-CT) to determine the leading diagnosis, the diagnostic certainty, and the management decisions. Changes were assessed by Fisher's exact test and the log likelihood ratio. RESULTS: The most common diagnoses were renal colic (119/584, 20.4%) and intestinal obstruction (80/584, 13.7%). CT altered the leading diagnosis in 49% of the patients (284/584, p < 0.00001) and increased mean physician diagnostic certainty from 70.5% (pre-CT) to 92.2% (post-CT) (p < 0.001; log likelihood ratio, 2.48). The management plan was changed by CT in 42% (244/583) (p < 0.0001). Physicians planned to admit 75.3% of the patients (440/584) to the hospital before CT; that plan was changed to hospital discharge with follow-up in 24.1% of patients (106/440) after CT. Surgery was planned for 79 patients before CT, whereas hospital discharge was planned for 25.3% of these patients (20/79) after CT. CONCLUSION: In the management of patients presenting to the emergency department with nontraumatic abdominal complaints, CT changes the leading diagnosis, increases diagnostic certainty, and changes potential patient management decisions.

Lung cancer treatment costs, including patient responsibility, by disease stage and treatment modality, 1992 to 2003.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this analysis was to estimate costs for lung cancer care and evaluate trends in the share of treatment costs that are the responsibility of Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data from 1991-2003 for 60,231 patients with lung cancer were used to estimate monthly and patient-liability costs for clinical phases of lung cancer (prediagnosis, staging, initial, continuing, and terminal), stratified by treatment, stage, and non-small- versus small-cell lung cancer. Lung cancer-attributable costs were estimated by subtracting each patient's own prediagnosis costs. Costs were estimated as the sum of Medicare reimbursements (payments from Medicare to the service provider), co-insurance reimbursements, and patient-liability costs (deductibles and "co-payments" that are the patient's responsibility). Costs and patient-liability costs were fit with regression models to compare trends by calendar year, adjusting for age at diagnosis. RESULTS: The monthly treatment costs for a 72-year-old patient, diagnosed with lung cancer in 2000, in the first 6 months ranged from $2687 (no active treatment) to $9360 (chemo-radiotherapy); costs varied by stage at diagnosis and histologic type. Patient liability represented up to 21.6% of care costs and increased over the period 1992-2003 for most stage and treatment categories, even when care costs decreased or remained unchanged. The greatest monthly patient liability was incurred by chemo-radiotherapy patients, which ranged from $1617 to $2004 per month across cancer stages. CONCLUSIONS: Costs for lung cancer care are substantial, and Medicare is paying a smaller proportion of the total cost over time.

Active surveillance compared with initial treatment for men with low-risk prostate cancer: a decision analysis.

CONTEXT: In the United States, 192,000 men were diagnosed as having prostate cancer in 2009, the majority with low-risk, clinically localized disease. Treatment of these cancers is associated with substantial morbidity. Active surveillance is an alternative to initial treatment, but long-term outcomes and effect on quality of life have not been well characterized. OBJECTIVE: To examine the quality-of-life benefits and risks of active surveillance compared with initial treatment for men with low-risk, clinically localized prostate cancer. DESIGN AND SETTING: Decision analysis using a simulation model was performed: men were treated at diagnosis with brachytherapy, intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), or radical prostatectomy or followed up by active surveillance (a strategy of close monitoring of newly diagnosed patients with serial prostate-specific antigen measurements, digital rectal examinations, and biopsies, with treatment at disease progression or patient choice). Probabilities and utilities were derived from previous studies and literature review. In the base case, the relative risk of prostate cancer-specific death for initial treatment vs active surveillance was assumed to be 0.83. Men incurred short- and long-term adverse effects of treatment. PATIENTS: Hypothetical cohorts of 65-year-old men newly diagnosed as having clinically localized, low-risk prostate cancer (prostate-specific antigen level <10 ng/mL, stage ≤T2a disease, and Gleason score ≤6). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). RESULTS: Active surveillance was associated with the greatest QALE (11.07 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), followed by brachytherapy (10.57 QALYs), IMRT (10.51 QALYs), and radical prostatectomy (10.23 QALYs). Active surveillance remained associated with the highest QALE even if the relative risk of prostate cancer-specific death for initial treatment vs active surveillance was as low as 0.6. However, the QALE gains and the optimal strategy were highly dependent on individual preferences for living under active surveillance and for having been treated. CONCLUSIONS: Under a wide range of assumptions, for a 65-year-old man, active surveillance is a reasonable approach to low-risk prostate cancer based on QALE compared with initial treatment. However, individual preferences play a central role in the decision whether to treat or to pursue active surveillance.

Cost-effectiveness of breast MR imaging and screen-film mammography for screening BRCA1 gene mutation carriers.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening strategies in which MR imaging and screen-film mammography were used, alone and in combination, in women with BRCA1 mutations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Because this study did not involve primary data collection from individual patients, institutional review board approval was not needed. By using a simulation model, we compared three annual screening strategies for a cohort of 25-year-old BRCA1 mutation carriers, as follows: (a) screen-film mammography, (b) MR imaging, and (c) combined MR imaging and screen-film mammography (combined screening). The model was used to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated. Input parameters were obtained from the medical literature, existing databases, and calibration. Costs (2007 U.S. dollars) and quality-of-life adjustments were derived from Medicare reimbursement rates and the medical literature. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimates on model results. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, annual combined screening was most effective (44.62 QALYs), and had the highest cost ($110973), followed by annual MR imaging alone (44.50 QALYs, $108641), and annual mammography alone (44.46 QALYs, $100336). Adding annual MR imaging to annual mammographic screening cost $69125 for each additional QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis indicated that, when the screening MR imaging cost increased to $960 (base case, $577), or breast cancer risk by age 70 years decreased below 58% (base case, 65%), or the sensitivity of combined screening decreased below 76% (base case, 94%), the cost of adding MR imaging to mammography exceeded $100000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Annual combined screening provides the greatest life expectancy and is likely cost-effective when the value placed on gaining an additional QALY is in the range of $50000-$100000. SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.09091086/-/DC1.