Assessment of absolute risk of life-threatening cardiac events in long QT syndrome patients.

Background: Risk stratification in long QT syndrome (LQTS) patients is important for optimizing patient care and informing clinical decision making. We developed a risk prediction algorithm with prediction of 5-year absolute risk of the first life-threatening arrhythmic event [defined as aborted cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, or appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock] in LQTS patients, accounting for individual risk factors and their changes over time. Methods: Rochester-based LQTS Registry included the phenotypic cohort consisting of 1,509 LQTS patients with a QTc ≥ 470 ms, and the genotypic cohort including 1,288 patients with single LQT1, LQT2, or LQT3 mutation. We developed two separate risk prediction models which included pre-specified time-dependent covariates of beta-blocker use, syncope (never, syncope while off beta blockers, and syncope while on beta blockers), and sex by age < and ≥13 years, baseline QTc, and genotype (for the genotypic cohort only). Follow-up started from enrollment in the registry and was censored at patients' 50s birthday, date of death due to reasons other than sudden cardiac death, or last contact, whichever occurred first. The predictive models were externally validated in an independent cohort of 1,481 LQTS patients from Pavia, Italy. Results: In Rochester dataset, there were 77 endpoints in the phenotypic cohort during a median follow-up of 9.0 years, and 47 endpoints in the genotypic cohort during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. The time-dependent extension of Harrell's generalized C-statistics for the phenotypic model and genotypic model were 0.784 (95% CI: 0.740-0.827) and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.721-0.849), respectively, in the Rochester cohort. The C-statistics obtained from external validation in the Pavia cohort were 0.700 (95% CI: 0.610-0.790) and 0.711 (95% CI: 0.631-0.792) for the two models, respectively. Based on the above models, an online risk calculator estimating a 5-year risk of life-threatening arrhythmic events was developed. Conclusion: This study developed two risk prediction algorithms for phenotype and genotype positive LQTS patients separately. The estimated 5-year absolute risk can be used to quantify a LQTS patient's risk of developing life-threatening arrhythmic events and thus assisting in clinical decision making regarding prophylactic ICD therapy.

Quantitative T-wave morphology assessment from surface ECG is linked with cardiac events risk in genotype-positive KCNH2 mutation carriers with normal QTc values.

INTRODUCTION: Long QT syndrome (LQTS) mutation carriers have elevated the risk of cardiac events even in the absence of QTc prolongation; however, mutation penetrance in patients with normal QTc may be reflected in abnormal T-wave shape, particularly in KCNH2 mutation carriers. We aimed to assess whether the magnitude of a three-dimensional T-wave vector (TwVM) will identify KCNH2-mutation carriers with normal QTc at risk for cardiac events. METHODS: Adult LQT2 patients with QTc < 460 ms in men and <470 ms in women (n = 113, age 42 ± 16 years, 43% male) were compared with genotype-negative family members (n = 1007). The TwVM was calculated using T-wave amplitudes in leads V6, II, and V2 as the square root of (TV62 + TII2 + (0.5*TV2)2 ). Cox regression analysis adjusted for gender and time-dependent beta-blocker use was performed to assess cardiac event (CE) risk, defined as syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, or sudden death. RESULTS: Dichotomized by median of 0.30 mV, lower TwVM was associated with elevated CE risk compared to those with high TwVM (HR = 2.95, 95% CI, 1.25-6.98, P = .014) and also remained significant after including sex and time-dependent beta-blocker usage in the Cox regression analysis (HR = 2.64, 95% CI, 1.64-4.24, P < .001). However, these associations were found only in women but not in men who had low event rates. CONCLUSION: T-wave morphology quantified as repolarization vector magnitude using T-wave amplitudes retrieved from standard 12-lead electrocardiogram predicts cardiac events risk in LQT2 women and appears useful for risk stratification of KCNH2-mutation carriers without QTc prolongation.

Clinical Presentation and Outcomes by Sex in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: Findings from the North American ARVC Registry.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences in clinical presentation and outcomes of hereditary arrhythmias are commonly reported. We aimed to compare clinical presentation and outcomes in men and women with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) enrolled in the North American ARVC Registry. METHODS: A total of 125 ARVC probands (55 females, mean age 38 ± 12; 70 males, mean age 41 ± 15) diagnosed, as either "affected" or "borderline" were included. Baseline clinical characteristics and time-dependent outcomes including syncope, ventricular tachycardia (VT), fast VT (>240 bpm), ventricular fibrillation (VF), and death were compared between males and females. RESULTS: The percentage of ARVC subjects diagnosed as "affected" (84% vs. 89%; P = 0.424) or "borderline" (16% vs. 11%; P = 0.424) was similar between females and males. Among the baseline characteristics, inverted T-waves in V2 trended to be more common in women (P = 0.09), whereas abnormal signal-averaged ECGs (SAECGs; P < 0.001) and inducible VT/VF (P = 0.026) were more frequent in men. During a mean follow-up of 37 ± 20 months, the probability of ICD-recorded VT/VF or death was not significantly different between men and women (P = 0.456). However, there was a trend toward lower risk of fast VT/VF or death in women compared to men (hazard ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.151-1.113, P = 0.066). Abnormal SAECG and evidence of intramyocardial fat by cardiac MRI was associated with adverse outcomes in men (P = 0.006 and 0.02 respectively). CONCLUSION: In the North American ARVC Registry, we found similar frequency of "affected" and "borderline" subjects between men and women. Sex-related differences were observed in baseline ECG, SAECG, Holter-recorded ventricular arrhythmias, and VT inducibility. Men showed a trend toward greater risk of fast VT than women.

Sex Differences in Long-Term Outcomes With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy in Mild Heart Failure Patients With Left Bundle Branch Block.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown conflicting results regarding the benefit of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) by sex and QRS duration. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (MADIT-CRT), we evaluated long-term clinical outcome of heart failure (HF) or death, death, and HF alone by sex and QRS duration (dichotomized at 150 ms) in left bundle-branch block patients with CRT with defibrillator backup (CRT-D) versus implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) only. There were 394 women (31%) and 887 men with left bundle-branch block. During the median follow-up of 5.6 years, women derived greater clinical benefit from CRT-D compared with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator only, with a significant 71% reduction in HF or death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.29, P<0.001) and a 77% reduction in HF alone (HR 0.23, P<0.001) compared with men, who had a 41% reduction in HF or death (HR 0.59, P<0.001) and a 50% reduction in HF alone (HR 0.50, P<0.001) (all sex-by-treatment interaction P<0.05). Men and women had similar reduction in long-term mortality with CRT-D versus implantable cardioverter-defibrillator only (men: HR 0.70, P=0.03; women: HR 0.59, P=0.04). The incremental benefit of CRT-D in women for HF or death and HF alone was consistent with QRS <150 or >150 ms. CONCLUSIONS: During long-term follow-up of mild HF patients with left ventricular dysfunction and wide QRS, both women and men with left bundle-branch block derived sustained benefit from CRT-D versus implantable cardioverter-defibrillator only, with significant reduction in HF or death, HF alone, and all-cause mortality regardless of QRS duration. There is an incremental benefit with CRT-D in women for the end points of HF or death and HF alone. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifiers: NCT00180271, NCT01294449, and NCT02060110.

Sex Differences in Device Therapies for Ventricular Arrhythmias or Death in the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (MADIT-CRT) Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Studies suggest that women with ischemic heart disease are less likely to experience appropriate ICD therapies for ventricular arrhythmias (VT/VF). We evaluated the influence of sex on arrhythmic events or death in subjects enrolled in MADIT-CRT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Arrhythmic event rates, defined as VT/VF treated with defibrillator therapy or all-cause death, were determined among 1,790 subjects enrolled in MADIT-CRT with documented 3-year follow-up. Predictors of VT/VF/death were identified using multivariate analysis. Ninety-one (21%) women and 466 (35%) men experienced VT/VF/death over the follow-up period. The overall probability of VT/VF/death was significantly lower in women versus men (HR 0.62; P < 0.001). The probability of VT/VF/death was the lowest in women with ischemic heart disease (HR 0.51; P = 0.003). In ICD subjects, the 3-year risk of VT/VF was lower in ischemic women versus men (P = 0.021), and in nonischemic women versus men (P = 0.049). The probability of VT/VF/death was significantly lower in women (HR 0.52; P = 0.007) and men (HR 0.74; P = 0.018) with LBBB who received CRT-D. Appropriate shock therapy strongly correlated with increased risk of death during postshock follow-up in women (HR 5.18; P = 0.001) and men (HR 1.63; P = 0.033); interaction P value of 0.034. CONCLUSION: In this substudy of MADIT-CRT, sex, etiology of heart disease and type of device implanted significantly influenced subsequent risk for VT/VF or death. Women with ischemic heart disease and women with LBBB who received CRT-D had the lowest incidence of VT/VF or death when compared to men. Appropriate shock therapy was a strong predictor of death, particularly in women.

Association between myocardial substrate, implantable cardioverter defibrillator shocks and mortality in MADIT-CRT.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to assess a possible association between myocardial substrate, implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks, and subsequent mortality. METHODS: Within the multicentre automatic defibrillator implantation trial-cardiac resynchronization therapy (MADIT-CRT) population (n = 1790), we investigated the association between myocardial substrate, ICD shocks and subsequent mortality using multivariate Cox regression analyses and landmark analyses at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: The 4-year cumulative probability of ICD shocks was 13% for appropriate shock and 6% for inappropriate shock. Compared with patients who never received ICD therapy, patients who received appropriate shock had an increased risk of mortality [HR = 2.3 (1.47-3.54), P < 0.001], which remained increased after adjusting for echocardiographic remodelling at 1 year (HR = 2.8, P = 0.001). Appropriate anti-tachycardia pacing (ATP) only was not associated with increased mortality (P = 0.42). We were not able to show an association between inappropriate shocks (P = 0.53), or inappropriate ATP (P = 0.10) and increased mortality. Advanced myocardial structural disease, i.e. higher baseline echocardiographic volumes and lack of remodelling at 1 year, was present in patients who received appropriate shocks but not in patients who received inappropriate shocks or no shocks. CONCLUSION: In the MADIT-CRT study, receiving appropriate ICD shocks was associated with an increased risk of subsequent mortality. This association was not evident for appropriate ATP only. These findings, along with advanced cardiac structural disease in the patients who received appropriate shocks, suggest that the compromised myocardium is a contributing factor to the increased mortality associated with appropriate ICD shock therapy. Clinical trials.gov identifier: NCT00180271.

In silico cardiac risk assessment in patients with long QT syndrome: type 1: clinical predictability of cardiac models.

OBJECTIVES: The study was designed to assess the ability of computer-simulated electrocardiography parameters to predict clinical outcomes and to risk-stratify patients with long QT syndrome type 1 (LQT1). BACKGROUND: Although attempts have been made to correlate mutation-specific ion channel dysfunction with patient phenotype in long QT syndrome, these have been largely unsuccessful. Systems-level computational models can be used to predict consequences of complex changes in channel function to the overall heart rhythm. METHODS: A total of 633 LQT1-genotyped subjects with 34 mutations from multinational long QT syndrome registries were studied. Cellular electrophysiology function was determined for the mutations and introduced in a 1-dimensional transmural electrocardiography computer model. The mutation effect on transmural repolarization was determined for each mutation and related to the risk for cardiac events (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death) among patients. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that mutation-specific transmural repolarization prolongation (TRP) was associated with an increased risk for cardiac events (35% per 10-ms increment [p < 0.0001]; ≥upper quartile hazard ratio: 2.80 [p < 0.0001]) and life-threatening events (aborted cardiac arrest/sudden cardiac death: 27% per 10-ms increment [p = 0.03]; ≥upper quartile hazard ratio: 2.24 [p = 0.002]) independently of patients' individual QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc). Subgroup analysis showed that among patients with mild to moderate QTc duration (<500 ms), the risk associated with TRP was maintained (36% per 10 ms [p < 0.0001]), whereas the patient's individual QTc was not associated with a significant risk increase after adjustment for TRP. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that simulated repolarization can be used to predict clinical outcomes and to improve risk stratification in patients with LQT1, with a more pronounced effect among patients with a lower-range QTc, in whom a patient's individual QTc may provide less incremental prognostic information.

Combined assessment of sex- and mutation-specific information for risk stratification in type 1 long QT syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Men and women with type 1 long QT syndrome (LQT1) exhibit time-dependent differences in the risk for cardiac events. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that sex-specific risk for LQT1 is related to the location and function of the disease-causing mutation in the KCNQ1 gene. METHODS: The risk for life-threatening cardiac events (comprising aborted cardiac arrest [ACA] or sudden cardiac death [SCD]) from birth through age 40 years was assessed among 1051 individuals with LQT1 (450 men and 601 women) by the location and function of the LQT1-causing mutation (prespecified as mutations in the intracellular domains linking the membrane-spanning segments [ie, S2-S3 and S4-S5 cytoplasmic loops] involved in adrenergic channel regulation vs other mutations). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that during childhood (age group: 0-13 years) men had >2-fold (P < .003) increased risk for ACA/SCD than did women, whereas after the onset of adolescence the risk for ACA/SCD was similar between men and women (hazard ratio = 0.89 [P = .64]). The presence of cytoplasmic-loop mutations was associated with a 2.7-fold (P < .001) increased risk for ACA/SCD among women, but it did not affect the risk among men (hazard ratio 1.37; P = .26). Time-dependent syncope was associated with a more pronounced risk-increase among men than among women (hazard ratio 4.73 [P < .001] and 2.43 [P = .02], respectively), whereas a prolonged corrected QT interval (≥ 500 ms) was associated with a higher risk among women than among men. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the combined assessment of clinical and mutation location/functional data can be used to identify sex-specific risk factors for life-threatening events for patients with LQT1.

A quantitative assessment of T-wave morphology in LQT1, LQT2, and healthy individuals based on Holter recording technology.

BACKGROUND: The clinical course and the precipitating risk factors in the congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) are genotype specific. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to develop a computer algorithm allowing for electrocardiogram (ECG)-based identification and differentiation of LQT1 and LQT2 carriers. METHODS: Twelve-lead ECG Holter monitor recordings were acquired in 49 LQT1 carriers, 25 LQT2 carriers, and 38 healthy subjects as controls. The cardiac beats were clustered based on heart-rate bin method. Scalar and vectorial repolarization parameters were compared for similar heart rates among study groups. The Q to Tpeak (QTpeak), the Tpeak to Tend interval, T-wave magnitude and T-loop morphology were automatically quantified using custom-made algorithms. RESULTS: QTpeak from lead II and the right slope of the T-wave were the most discriminant parameters for differentiating the 3 groups using prespecified heart rate bin (75.0 to 77.5 beats/min). The predictive model utilizing these scalar parameters was validated using the entire spectrum of heart rates. Both scalar and vectorcardiographic models provided very effective identification of tested subjects in heart rates between 60 and 100 beats/min, whereas they had limited performance during tachycardia and slightly better discrimination in bradycardia. In the 60 to 100 beats/min heart rate range, the best 2-variable model identified correctly 89% of healthy subjects, 84% of LQT1 carriers, and 92% of LQT2 carriers. A model including 3 parameters based purely on scalar ECG parameters could correctly identify 90% of the population (89% of healthy subjects, 90% of LQT1 carriers, and 92% of LQT2 carriers). CONCLUSION: Automatic algorithm quantifying T-wave morphology discriminates LQT1 and LQT2 carriers and healthy subjects with high accuracy. Such computerized ECG methodology could assist physicians evaluating subjects suspected for LQTS.