A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus.

West Nile virus (WNV)-a mosquito-borne arbovirus-entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential-short-range dispersal, 2) power-law-long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction -long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective.

Introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States - A qualitative risk assessment.

The purpose of this risk assessment (RA) was to qualitatively estimate the risk of emergence of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States (US). We followed the framework for RA of emerging vector-borne livestock diseases (de Vos et al. 2011), which consists of a structured questionnaire, whose answers to questions can be delivered in risk categories, descriptive statements, or yes or no type of answers, being supported by the literature. The most likely pathways of introduction of JEV identified were: (a) entry through infected vectors (by aircraft, cargo ships, tires, or wind); (b) import of infected viremic animals; (c) entry of viremic migratory birds; (d) import of infected biological materials; (e) import of infected animal products; (f) entry of infected humans; and (g) import/production of contaminated biological material (e.g., vaccines). From these pathways, the probability of introduction of JEV through infected adult mosquitoes via aircraft was considered very high and via ships/containers was deemed low to moderate. The probability of introduction via other pathways or modes of entry (vector eggs or larvae, hosts, and vaccines) was considered negligible. The probability of transmission of JEV was variable, ranging from low to high (in the presence of both competent vectors and hosts), depending on the area of introduction within the US. Lastly, the probability of establishment of JEV in the continental US was considered negligible. For that reason, we stopped the risk assessment at this point of the framework. This RA provides important information regarding the elements that contribute to the risk associated with the introduction of JEV in the US. This RA also indicates that infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft (and cargo ships) are the most likely pathway of JEV entry and therefore, mitigation strategies should be directed towards this pathway.

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risk of introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships.

Following a qualitative risk assessment, in which we identified and assessed all viable pathways for the introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States (US), we identified entry through infected vectors via aircraft and cargo ships as the most likely pathway, and thus considered it further in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of introduction of JEV in the US via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships arriving from Asia, using a QRA model. We created a stochastic model to quantify the probability of introduction of at least one infected mosquito in the continental US via aircraft and cargo ships, per at-risk period (March to October) or year, respectively. We modeled the following parameters: number of flights (per at-risk period, i.e., March to October) and cargo ships (per year) and per region, number of mosquitoes per flight and ship, number of mosquitoes that were not found and sensitivity of the mosquito collection method in aircraft, mosquito infection rates, and number of mosquitoes coming in aircraft per at-risk period (March to October) and cargo ships per year. Flight and cargo ship data pertained to years 2010-2016. For model building purposes, we only considered port-to-port vessels arriving from Asia to the US, we assumed that mosquitoes survive the trans-Pacific Ocean ship crossing and that the number of mosquitoes in cargo and passenger flights is similar. Our model predicted a very high risk (0.95 median probability; 95% CI = 0.80-0.99) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced in the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October, via aircraft transportation from JEV-affected countries in Asia. We also estimated that a median of three infected mosquitoes can enter the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October (95% CI = 1-7). The highest probability of introduction via aircraft was attributed to the Mediterranean California ecoregion (0.74; 95% CI = 0.50-0.90). We predicted, however, a negligible risk (0; 95% CI = 0.00-0.01) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced via cargo ships. Although the risk of introduction of JEV-infected mosquitoes by cargo ships was negligible, the risk via aircraft was estimated to be high. Our findings indicate the need to prioritize JEV prevention and control methods for aircraft-based pathways, such as aircraft disinfection. The quantitative estimates provided in this study are of interest to public health entities and other stakeholders, as they may support future interventions for preventing JEV introduction, as well as other vector-borne diseases, in the US and other countries.

Assessment of data on vector and host competence for Japanese encephalitis virus: A systematic review of the literature.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a virus of the Flavivirus genus that may result in encephalitis in human hosts. This vector-borne zoonosis occurs in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and an intentional or inadvertent introduction into the United States (US) would have major public health and economic consequences. The objective of this study was to gather, appraise, and synthesize primary research literature to identify and quantify vector and host competence for JEV, using a systematic review (SR) of the literature. After defining the research question, we performed a search in selected electronic databases and journals. The title and abstract of the identified articles were screened for relevance using a set of exclusion and inclusion criteria, and relevant articles were subjected to a risk of bias assessment, followed by data extraction. Data were extracted from 171 peer-reviewed articles. Most studies were observational studies (59.1%) and reported vector competence (60.2%). The outcome measures reported pertained to transmission efficiency, host preference, and vector susceptibility to infection within vector competence; and susceptibility to infection within host competence. Regarding vector competence, the proportion of JEV infection reported across all 149 mosquito species in all observational studies ranged from 0 to 100%. In experimental studies, infection, dissemination, and transmission rates varied between 0 and 100%. Minimum infection rates (MIR) varied between 0 and 333.3 per 1000 mosquitoes. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) values ranged from 0 to 53.8 per 1000 mosquitoes. The host species in which mosquitoes mostly fed consisted of pigs and cattle (total of 84 blood meals taken by mosquitoes from each of these host species). As for host competence, the proportion of JEV infection varied between 0 (in rabbits, reptiles, and amphibians) and 88.9% (cattle). This SR presents comprehensive data on JEV vector and host competence, which can be used to quantify risks associated with the introduction of JEV into the US.

European Bluetongue Serotype 8: Disease Threat Assessment for U.S. Sheep.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an orbivirus transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.) that can result in moderate to high morbidity and mortality primarily in sheep and white-tailed deer. Although only 5 serotypes of BTV are considered endemic to the United States, as many as 11 incursive serotypes have been detected in livestock and wildlife in the past 16 years. Introductions of serotypes, with unknown virulence and disease risk, are constant threats to US agriculture. One potential incursive serotype of particular concern is the European strain of BTV-8, which was introduced into Northern Europe in 2006 and caused unprecedented livestock disease and mortality during the 2006-2007 vector seasons. To assess disease risk of BTV-8 in a common white-faced American sheep breed, eight Polled Dorset yearlings were experimentally infected and monitored for clinical signs. Viremia and viral tissue distribution were detected and quantified by real-time qRT-PCR. Overall, clinical disease was moderate with no mortality. Viremia reached as high as 9.7 log10 particles/mL and persisted at 5 logs or higher through the end of the study (28 days). Virus distribution in tissues was extensive with the highest mean titers at the peak of viremia (day 8) in the kidney (8.38 log10 particles/mg) and pancreas (8.37 log10 particles/mg). Virus persisted in tissues of some sheep at 8 logs or higher by day 28. Results of this study suggest that should BTV-8 emerge in the United States, clinical disease in this common sheep breed would likely be similar in form, duration, and severity to what is typically observed in severe outbreaks of endemic serotypes, not the extraordinary disease levels seen in Northern Europe. In addition, a majority of exposed sheep would be expected to survive and act as significant BTV-8 reservoirs with high titer viremias for subsequent transmission to other livestock and wildlife populations.