Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Availability of Medication for Opioid Use Disorder Among Accountable Care Organizations: Evidence From a National Survey.

OBJECTIVE: This report aimed to assess how accountable care organizations (ACOs) addressed ongoing opioid use disorder treatment needs over time. METHODS: Responses from the 2018 (N=308 organizations) and 2022 (N=276) National Survey of Accountable Care Organizations (response rate=55% in both years) were used to examine changes in availability of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) among ACOs with Medicare and Medicaid contracts. RESULTS: The percentage of respondents offering at least one MOUD grew from 39% in 2018 to 52% in 2022 (p<0.01). MOUDs were more likely to be available in 2022 among ACOs with (vs. without) in-network substance use treatment facilities (80% vs. 33%, p<0.001). The percentage of 2022 respondents who reported offering MOUD was similar in states with high versus low opioid overdose mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing availability of MOUD among ACOs, nearly half reported not offering any MOUD in 2022, and the availability of MOUD did not increase with treatment need.

Population simulation modeling of disparities in US breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy. RESULTS: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities.

Provision of Digital Health Technologies for Opioid Use Disorder Treatment by US Health Care Organizations.

Importance: Digital health technologies may expand organizational capacity to treat opioid use disorder (OUD). However, it remains unclear whether these technologies serve as substitutes for or complements to traditional substance use disorder (SUD) treatment resources in health care organizations. Objective: To characterize the use of patient-facing digital health technologies for OUD by US organizations with accountable care organization (ACO) contracts. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed responses to the 2022 National Survey of Accountable Care Organizations (NSACO), collected between October 1, 2021, and June 30, 2022, from US organizations with Medicare and Medicaid ACO contracts. Data analysis was performed between December 15, 2022, and January 6, 2023. Exposures: Treatment resources for SUD (eg, an addiction medicine specialist, sufficient staff to treat SUD, medications for OUD, a specialty SUD treatment facility, a registry to identify patients with OUD, or a registry to track mental health for patients with OUD) and organizational characteristics (eg, organization type, Medicaid ACO contract). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes included survey-reported use of 3 categories of digital health technologies for OUD: remote mental health therapy and tracking, virtual peer recovery support programs, and digital recovery support for adjuvant cognitive behavior therapy (CBT). Statistical analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models. Results: Overall, 276 of 505 organizations responded to the NSACO (54.7% response rate), with a total of 304 respondents. Of these, 161 (53.1%) were from a hospital or health system, 74 (24.2%) were from a physician- or medical group-led organization, and 23 (7.8%) were from a safety-net organization. One-third of respondents (101 [33.5%]) reported that their organization used at least 1 of the 3 digital health technology categories, including remote mental health therapy and tracking (80 [26.5%]), virtual peer recovery support programs (46 [15.1%]), and digital recovery support for adjuvant CBT (27 [9.0%]). In an adjusted analysis, organizations with an addiction medicine specialist (average marginal effect [SE], 32.3 [4.7] percentage points; P < .001) or a registry to track mental health (average marginal effect [SE], 27.2 [3.8] percentage points; P < .001) were more likely to use at least 1 category of technology compared with otherwise similar organizations lacking these capabilities. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of 276 organizations with ACO contracts, organizations used patient-facing digital health technologies for OUD as complements to available SUD treatment capabilities rather than as substitutes for unavailable resources. Future studies should examine implementation facilitators to realize the potential of emerging technologies to support organizations facing health care practitioner shortages and other barriers to OUD treatment delivery.

Health-related quality of life in high-cost, high-need populations.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize patient-reported health and assess the psychometric performance of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in high-cost, high-need (HCHN) populations. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study examining health care utilization, expenditures, and patient-reported health comparing a baseline (year 1) and follow-up year (year 2). METHODS: The sample includes adults (n = 46,934) participating in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey between 2011 and 2016. We estimated HRQOL for each sample member using the physical and mental health scales from the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 12. We compared HRQOL stratified by HCHN, defined as patients whose baseline (year 1) demographics, utilization, and clinical characteristics predicted top decile health spending in year 2. Analyses assessed the validity, reliability, and responsiveness of physical and, separately, mental health scales. RESULTS: Among HCHN adults, the physical health scale exhibited robust measure validity, reliability, and responsiveness across all age groups; the mental health scale did not. Mean physical health was 1.25 SDs lower in HCHN vs other patients (37.9 vs 51.0 on a 0-100 scale increasing in self-perceived health; pooled SD, 10.5). Regressions indicated that a 0.5-SD increase in year 1 physical health among HCHN adults predicted a 5-percentage-point (10%) decrease in the probability of top decile health spending in year 2. In contrast to health care spending, HRQOL did not exhibit reversion to the mean in HCHN patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-reported health outcomes remain poor in HCHN populations, even after health care utilization recedes. HRQOL is a promising outcome measure for HCHN-focused payment and delivery interventions.

Racial Inequality in Receipt of Medications for Opioid Use Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, Black persons in the United States have had a greater increase in opioid overdose-related mortality than other groups, but national-level evidence characterizing racial and ethnic disparities in the use of medications for opioid use disorder (OUD) is limited. METHODS: We used Medicare claims data from the 2016-2019 period for a random 40% sample of fee-for-service beneficiaries who were Black, Hispanic, or White; were eligible for Medicare owing to disability; and had an index event related to OUD (nonfatal overdose treated in an emergency department or inpatient setting, hospitalization with injection drug use-related infection, or inpatient or residential rehabilitation or detoxification care). We measured the receipt of medications to treat OUD (buprenorphine, naltrexone, and naloxone), the receipt of high-risk medications (opioid analgesics and benzodiazepines), and health care utilization, all in the 180 days after the index event. We estimated differences in outcomes according to race and ethnic group with adjustment for beneficiary age, sex, index event, count of chronic coexisting conditions, and state of residence. RESULTS: We identified 25,904 OUD-related index events among 23,370 beneficiaries, with 3937 events (15.2%) occurring among Black patients, 2105 (8.1%) among Hispanic patients, and 19,862 (76.7%) among White patients. In the 180 days after the index event, patients received buprenorphine after 12.7% of events among Black patients, after 18.7% of those among Hispanic patients, and after 23.3% of those among White patients; patients received naloxone after 14.4%, 20.7%, and 22.9%, respectively; and patients received benzodiazepines after 23.4%, 29.6%, and 37.1%, respectively. Racial differences in the receipt of medications to treat OUD did not change appreciably from 2016 to 2019 (buprenorphine receipt: after 9.1% of index events among Black patients vs. 21.6% of those among White patients in 2016, and after 14.1% vs. 25.5% in 2019). In all study groups, patients had multiple ambulatory visits in the 180 days after the index event (mean number of visits, 6.6 after events among Black patients, 6.7 after events among Hispanic patients, and 7.6 after events among White patients). CONCLUSIONS: Racial and ethnic differences in the receipt of medications to treat OUD after an index event related to this disorder among patients with disability were substantial and did not change over time. The high incidence of ambulatory visits in all groups showed that disparities persisted despite frequent health care contact. (Funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the National Institute on Aging.).

Changes in spending and quality after ACO contract participation for dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Fragmented care and misaligned payment across Medicare and Medicaid lower care quality for dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness. Accountable care organizations aim to improve the quality and value of care. METHODS: Using Medicare fee-for-service Part A and B claims data from 2009 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences design, we compared the spending and utilization of dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness that were and were not attributed to Medicare ACO providers before and after ACO contract entry. RESULTS: Dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness (N = 5,157,533, 70% depression, 22% bipolar, 27% schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders) had average annual Medicare spending of $17,899. ACO contract participation was generally not associated with spending or utilization changes. However, ACO contract participation was associated with higher rates of follow-up visits after mental health hospitalization: 1.17 and 1.30 percentage points within 7 and 30 days of discharge, respectively (p < 0.001). ACO-attributed beneficiaries with schizophrenia, bipolar, or other psychotic disorders received more ambulatory visits (393.9 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.002), while ACO-attributed beneficiaries with depression experienced fewer emergency department visits (-29.5 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.003) after ACO participation. CONCLUSIONS: Dually eligible beneficiaries served by Medicare ACOs did not have lower spending, hospitalizations, or readmissions compared with other beneficiaries. However, ACO participation was associated with timely follow-up after mental health hospitalization, as well as more ambulatory care and fewer ED visits for certain diagnostic groups. IMPLICATIONS: ACOs that include dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness should tailor their designs to address the distinct needs of this population.

ACO Participation Associated With Decreased Spending For Medicare Beneficiaries With Serious Mental Illness.

Serious mental illness (SMI) is a major source of suffering among Medicare beneficiaries. To date, limited evidence exists evaluating whether Medicare accountable care organizations (ACOs) are associated with decreased spending among people with SMI. Using national Medicare data from the period 2009-17, we performed difference-in-differences analyses evaluating changes in spending and use associated with enrollment in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) among beneficiaries with SMI. After five years, participation in MSSP ACOs was associated with small savings for beneficiaries with SMI (-$233 per person per year) in total health care spending, primarily related to savings from chronic medical conditions (excluding mental health; -$227 per person per year) and not from savings related to mental health services (-$6 per person per year). Savings were driven by reductions in acute and postacute care for medical conditions. Further work is needed to ensure that Medicare ACOs invest in strategies to reduce potentially unnecessary care related to mental health disorders and to improve health outcomes.

Difficulty Obtaining Behavioral Health Services for Children: A National Survey of Multiphysician Practices.

PURPOSE: In the United States, primary care practices rely on scarce resources to deliver evidence-based care for children with behavioral health disorders such as depression, anxiety, other mental illness, or substance use disorders. We estimated the proportion of practices that have difficulty accessing these resources and whether practices owned by a health system or participating in Medicaid accountable care organizations (ACOs) report less difficulty. METHODS: This national cross-sectional study examined how difficult it is for practices to obtain pediatric (1) medication advice, (2) evidence-based psychotherapy, and (3) family-based therapy. We used the National Survey of Healthcare Organizations and Systems 2017-2018 (46.9% response rate), which sampled multiphysician primary and multispecialty care practices including 1,410 practices that care for children. We characterized practices' experience as "difficult" relative to "not at all difficult" using a 4-point ordinal scale. We used mixed-effects generalized linear models to estimate differences comparing system-owned vs independent practices and Medicaid ACO participants vs nonparticipants, adjusting for practice attributes. RESULTS: More than 85% of practices found it difficult to obtain help with evidence-based elements of pediatric behavioral health care. Adjusting for practice attributes, the percent experiencing difficulty was similar between system-owned and independent practices but was less for Medicaid ACO participants for medication advice (81% vs 89%; P = .021) and evidence-based psychotherapy (81% vs 90%; P = .006); differences were not significant for family-based treatment (85% vs 91%; P = .107). CONCLUSIONS: Most multiphysician practices struggle to obtain advice and services for child behavioral health needs, which are increasing nationally. Future studies should investigate the source of observed associations.

The Association of Readmission Reduction Activities with Primary Care Practice Readmission Rates.

BACKGROUND: A great deal of research has focused on how hospitals influence readmission rates. While hospitals play a vital role in reducing readmissions, a significant portion of the work also falls to primary care practices. Despite this critical role of primary care, little empirical evidence has shown what primary care characteristics or activities are associated with reductions in hospital admissions. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between practices' readmission reduction activities and their readmission rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective study of 1,788 practices who responded to the National Survey of Healthcare Organizations and Systems (fielded 2017-2018) and 415,663 hospital admissions for Medicare beneficiaries attributed to those practices from 2016 100% Medicare claims data. We constructed mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate practice-level readmission rates and a linear regression model to evaluate the association between practices' readmission rates with their number of readmission reduction activities. INTERVENTIONS: Standardized composite score, ranging from 0 to 1, representing the number of a practice's readmission reduction capabilities. The composite score was composed of 12 unique capabilities identified in the literature as being significantly associated with lower readmission rates (e.g., presence of care manager, medication reconciliation, shared-decision making, etc.). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Practices' readmission rates for attributed Medicare beneficiaries. KEY RESULTS: Routinely engaging in more readmission reduction activities was significantly associated (P < .05) with lower readmission rates. On average, practices experienced a 0.05 percentage point decrease in readmission rates for each additional activity. Average risk-standardized readmission rates for practices performing 10 or more of the 12 activities in our composite measure were a full percentage point lower than risk-standardized readmission rates for practices engaging in none of the activities. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care practices that engaged in more readmission reduction activities had lower readmission rates. These findings add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that engaging in multiple activities, rather than any single activity, is associated with decreased readmissions.

Mammography adherence in relation to function-related indicators in older women.

Prior studies of screening mammography patterns by functional status in older women show inconsistent results. We used Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium-Medicare linked data (1999-2014) to investigate the association of functional limitations with adherence to screening mammography in 145,478 women aged 66-74 years. Functional limitation was represented by a claims-based function-related indicator (FRI) score which incorporated 16 items reflecting functional status. Baseline adherence was defined as mammography utilization 9-30 months after the index screening mammography. Longitudinal adherence was examined among women adherent at baseline and defined as time from the index mammography to end of the first 30-month gap in mammography. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate baseline and longitudinal adherence, respectively. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age (66-70 vs. 71-74 years). Overall, 69.6% of participants had no substantial functional limitation (FRI score 0), 23.5% had some substantial limitations (FRI score 1), and 6.8% had serious limitations (FRI score ≥ 2). Mean age at baseline was 68.5 years (SD = 2.6), 85.3% of participants were white, and 77.1% were adherent to screening mammography at baseline. Women with a higher FRI score were more likely to be non-adherent at baseline (FRI ≥ 2 vs. 0: aOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.20, p-trend < 0.01). Similarly, a higher FRI score was associated with longitudinal non-adherence (FRI ≥ 2 vs. 0: aHR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.11, 1.22, p-trend < 0.01). Effect measures of FRI did not differ substantially by age categories. Older women with a higher burden of functional limitations are less likely to be adherent to screening mammography recommendations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Mammography Beyond Age 75 Years : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of screening mammography beyond age 75 years remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending mammography to age 80, 85, or 90 years according to comorbidity burden. DESIGN: Markov microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. women aged 65 to 90 years in groups defined by Charlson comorbidity score (CCS). TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: National health payer. INTERVENTION: Screening mammography to age 75, 80, 85, or 90 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Breast cancer death, survival, and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Extending biennial mammography from age 75 to 80 years averted 1.7, 1.4, and 1.0 breast cancer deaths and increased days of life gained by 5.8, 4.2, and 2.7 days per 1000 women for comorbidity scores of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Annual mammography beyond age 75 years was not cost-effective, but extending biennial mammography to age 80 years was ($54 000, $65 000, and $85 000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained for women with CCSs of 0, 1, and ≥2, respectively). Overdiagnosis cases were double the number of deaths averted from breast cancer. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Costs per QALY gained were sensitive to changes in invasive cancer incidence and shift of breast cancer stage with screening mammography. LIMITATION: No randomized controlled trials of screening mammography beyond age 75 years are available to provide model parameter inputs. CONCLUSION: Although annual mammography is not cost-effective, biennial screening mammography to age 80 years is; however, the absolute number of deaths averted is small, especially for women with comorbidities. Women considering screening beyond age 75 years should weigh the potential harms of overdiagnosis versus the potential benefit of averting death from breast cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute and National Institutes of Health.

Racial Inequality in Prescription Opioid Receipt - Role of Individual Health Systems.

BACKGROUND: Historically, the receipt of prescription opioids has differed among racial groups in the United States. Research has not sufficiently explored the contribution of individual health systems to these differences by examining within-system prescription opioid receipt according to race. METHODS: We used 2016 and 2017 Medicare claims data from a random 40% national sample of fee-for-service, Black and White beneficiaries 18 to 64 years of age who were attributed to health systems. We identified 310 racially diverse systems (defined as systems with ≥200 person-years each for Black and White patients). To test representativeness, we compared patient characteristics and opioid receipt among the patients in these 310 systems with those in the national sample. Within the 310 systems, regression models were used to explore the difference between Black and White patients in the following annual opioid measures: any prescription filled, short-term receipt of opioids, long-term receipt of opioids (one or more filled opioid prescriptions in all four calendar quarters of a year), and the opioid dose in morphine milligram equivalents (MME); models controlled for patient characteristics, state, and system. RESULTS: The national sample included 2,197,153 person-years, and the sample served by 310 racially diverse systems included 896,807 person-years (representing 47.4% of all patients and 56.1% of Black patients in the national sample). The national sample and 310-systems sample differed meaningfully only in the percent of person-years contributed by Black patients (21.3% vs. 25.9%). In the 310-systems sample, the crude annual prevalence of any opioid receipt differed slightly between Black and White patients (50.2% vs. 52.2%), whereas the mean annual dose was 36% lower among Black patients than among White patients (5190 MME vs. 8082 MME). Within systems, the adjusted race differences in measures paralleled the population trends: the annual prevalence of opioid receipt differed little, but the mean annual dose was higher among White patients than among Black patients in 91% of the systems, and at least 15% higher in 75% of the systems. CONCLUSIONS: Within individual health systems, Black and White patients received markedly different opioid doses. These system-specific findings could facilitate exploration of the causes and consequences of these differences. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.).

Assessment of a Risk-Based Approach for Triaging Mammography Examinations During Periods of Reduced Capacity.

Importance: Breast cancer screening, surveillance, and diagnostic imaging services were profoundly limited during the initial phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Objective: To develop a risk-based strategy for triaging mammograms during periods of decreased capacity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used data collected prospectively from mammography examinations performed in 2014 to 2019 at 92 radiology facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Participants included individuals undergoing mammography. Data were analyzed from August 10 to November 3, 2020. Exposures: Clinical indication for screening, breast symptoms, personal history of breast cancer, age, time since last mammogram/screening interval, family history of breast cancer, breast density, and history of high-risk breast lesion. Main Outcomes and Measures: Combinations of clinical indication, clinical history, and breast cancer risk factors that subdivided mammograms into risk groups according to their cancer detection rate were identified using classification and regression trees. Results: The cohort included 898 415 individuals contributing 1 878 924 mammograms (mean [SD] age at mammogram, 58.6 [11.2] years) interpreted by 448 radiologists, with 1 722 820 mammograms in individuals without a personal history of breast cancer and 156 104 mammograms in individuals with a history of breast cancer. Most individuals were aged 50 to 69 years at imaging (1 113 174 mammograms [59.2%]), and 204 305 (11.2%) were Black, 206 087 (11.3%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 126 677 (7.0%) were Hispanic or Latina, and 40 021 (2.2%) were another race/ethnicity or mixed race/ethnicity. Cancer detection rates varied widely based on clinical indication, breast symptoms, personal history of breast cancer, and age. The 12% of mammograms with very high (89.6 [95% CI, 82.3-97.5] to 122.3 [95% CI, 108.1-138.0] cancers detected per 1000 mammograms) or high (36.1 [95% CI, 33.1-39.3] to 47.5 [95% CI, 42.4-53.3] cancers detected per 1000 mammograms) cancer detection rates accounted for 55% of all detected cancers and included mammograms to evaluate an abnormal mammogram or breast lump in individuals of all ages regardless of breast cancer history, to evaluate breast symptoms other than lump in individuals with a breast cancer history or without a history but aged 60 years or older, and for short-interval follow-up in individuals aged 60 years or older without a breast cancer history. The 44.2% of mammograms with very low cancer detection rates accounted for 13.1% of detected cancers and included annual screening mammograms in individuals aged 50 to 69 years (3.8 [95% CI, 3.5-4.1] cancers detected per 1000 mammograms) and all screening mammograms in individuals younger than 50 years regardless of screening interval (2.8 [95% CI, 2.6-3.1] cancers detected per 1000 mammograms). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, clinical indication and individual risk factors were associated with cancer detection and may be useful for prioritizing mammography in times and settings of decreased capacity.

Estimates of ACO savings in the presence of provider and beneficiary selection.

BACKGROUND: Medicare's accountable care organizations (ACOs)-designed to improve quality and lower spending-were associated with growing savings in previous studies. However, savings estimates may be biased by beneficiary sorting among providers based on healthcare needs and by providers opting into the program based on anticipated gains. METHODS: Using Medicare administrative claims (2009-2014), we compared annual spending changes after provider organizations joined ACOs to changes in non-ACOs (controls). To address provider selection, using novel data to identify non-ACO organizations, we restricted controls to comparably large provider organizations. To address beneficiary selection, we (a) estimated within-organization (including non-ACO comparison organizations) spending changes, (b) estimated within-beneficiary spending changes, (c) incorporated beneficiaries without qualifying healthcare expenses, and (d) used a fixed beneficiary ACO assignment using the pre-ACO period. RESULTS: Each year, 19% of Medicare beneficiaries switched provider organizations. Spending was higher for switchers than stayers ($3163, p < .001) and grew more the next year ($2004; p < .001). Starting from a baseline regression modeled on previous ACO evaluations, estimated savings varied widely as we sequentially introduced methods to address selection. Combining methods, however, generated more stable estimated ACO savings of $46 (p = .022), averaged across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: When implementing a comprehensive suite of methods to adjust for provider and beneficiary selection, we estimated ACO savings that grew over time. Our estimates are in line with, but smaller than, previous estimates in the literature. Implementing piecemeal adjustments produced misleading results. IMPLICATIONS: Our results confirm the importance of selection for savings estimates and for provider organizations managing costs and quality. Attribution rules that consider multiple years may help mitigate the impact of beneficiary churn for providers and payers. Implementing payment reform by randomizing early participants, or implementing fully across selected markets, may better serve efforts to evaluate and improve payment models. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3.

The importance of data source in prescription drug monitoring program research.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a legal research protocol for identifying various measures of prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) start dates, apply the protocol to create a useable PDMP database, and test whether the different legal databases that are meant to contain the same information produce divergent results when used in an illustrative empirical exercise. DATA SOURCES: Original research from state statutes, regulations, policy statements, and interviews; alternative PDMP data from the National Alliance for Model State Drug Laws and Prescription Drug Abuse Policy System; claims from a 40 percent random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, 2006-2014. STUDY DESIGN: Collaborative research effort among a group of lawyers to develop protocol. Legal research to produce an original database of dates state PDMP laws: (a) were enacted, (b) became operational, and (c) required query before prescribing controlled substances. Descriptive analyses characterize differences in dates of enactment, operation, and must query requirements. Regression analyses estimating, for each beneficiary annually any opioid prescription received in a calendar year, among other measures. Estimates conducted on under age 65 and full Medicare population. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: PDMP legal databases were linked to annual Medicare claims. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An original database differs from commonly used, publicly available data. Outcomes tested depend on the measure of PDMP date used and differ by data source. Must-query laws show the largest effects among all the laws tested. CONCLUSIONS: Data choices likely have had large consequences for study results and may explain contradictory outcomes in prior research. Researchers must understand and report protocol for dates used in PDMP research to ensure that results are internally consistent and verifiable.

Rising Geographic Disparities in US Mortality.

The 21st century has been a period of rising inequality in both income and health. In this paper, we find that geographic inequality in mortality for midlife Americans increased by about 70 percent between 1992 and 2016. This was not simply because states like New York or California benefited from having a high fraction of college-educated residents who enjoyed the largest health gains during the last several decades. Nor was higher dispersion in mortality caused entirely by the increasing importance of "deaths of despair," or by rising spatial income inequality during the same period. Instead, over time, state-level mortality has become increasingly correlated with state-level income; in 1992 income explained only 3 percent of mortality inequality, but by 2016 state-level income explained 58 percent. These mortality patterns are consistent with the view that high-income states in 1992 were better able to enact public health strategies and adopt behaviors that, over the next quarter-century, resulted in pronounced relative declines in mortality. The substantial longevity gains in high-income states led to greater cross-state inequality in mortality.

Organizational integration, practice capabilities, and outcomes in clinically complex medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between clinical integration and financial integration, quality-focused care delivery processes, and beneficiary utilization and outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Multiphysician practices in the 2017-2018 National Survey of Healthcare Organizations and Systems (response rate 47%) and 2017 Medicare claims data. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of Medicare beneficiaries attributed to physician practices, focusing on two domains of integration: clinical (coordination of patient services, use of protocols, individual clinician measures, access to information) and financial (financial management and planning across operating units). We examined the association between integration domains, the adoption of quality-focused care delivery processes, beneficiary utilization and health-related outcomes, and price-adjusted spending using linear regression adjusting for practice and beneficiary characteristics, weighting to account for sampling and nonresponse. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: 1 604 580 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 66 or older attributed to 2113 practices. Of these, 414 209 beneficiaries were considered clinically complex (frailty or 2 + chronic conditions). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Financial integration and clinical integration were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient = 0.19). Clinical integration was associated with significantly greater adoption of quality-focused care delivery processes, while financial integration was associated with lower adoption of these processes. Integration was not generally associated with reduced utilization or better beneficiary-level health-related outcomes, but both clinical integration and financial integration were associated with lower spending in both the complex and noncomplex cohorts: (clinical complex cohort: -$2518, [95% CI: -3324, -1712]; clinical noncomplex cohort: -$255 [95% CI: -413, -97]; financial complex cohort: -$997 [95% CI: -$1320, -$679]; and financial noncomplex cohort: -$143 [95% CI: -210, -$76]). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of financial integration were not associated with improved care delivery or with better health-related beneficiary outcomes. Nonfinancial forms of integration deserve greater attention, as practices scoring high in clinical integration are more likely to adopt quality-focused care delivery processes and have greater associated reductions in spending in complex patients.

Role of Nurse Practitioners in Caring for Patients With Complex Health Needs.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate trends in the percentage of Medicare beneficiaries cared for by nurse practitioners from 2012 to 2017, to characterize beneficiaries cared for by nurse practitioners in 2017, and to examine how the percentage of beneficiaries cared for by nurse practitioners varies by practice characteristics. DESIGN: An observational study of 2012-2017 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries' ambulatory visits. We computed the percentage of beneficiaries with 1 or more ambulatory visits from nurse practitioners and the percentage of beneficiaries receiving the plurality of their ambulatory visits from a nurse practitioner versus a physician (ie, predominant provider). We compared beneficiary demographics, clinical characteristics, and utilization by the predominant provider. We then characterized the predominant provider by practice characteristics. KEY RESULTS: In 2017, 28.9% of beneficiaries received any care from a nurse practitioner and 8.0% utilized nurse practitioners as their predominant provider-an increase from 4.4% in 2012. Among beneficiaries cared for by nurse practitioners in 2017, 25.9% had 3 or more chronic conditions compared with 20.8% of those cared for by physicians. Beneficiaries cared for in practices owned by health systems were more likely to have a nurse practitioner as their predominant provider compared with those attending practices that were independently owned (9.3% vs. 7.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Nurse practitioners are caring for Medicare beneficiaries with complex needs at rates that match or exceed their physician colleagues. The growing role of nurse practitioners, especially in health care systems, warrants attention as organizations embark on payment and delivery reform.