Key factors in the future of oral and dental health in Iran using scenario writing approach.

BACKGROUND: Oral and dental health can significantly impact individuals' quality of life. The World Health Organization introduces oral health as one of the essential priorities of public health worldwide. Given the lack of studies on the future of oral and dental health in Iran, this study used a futures studies approach to identify the factors in oral and dental health in Iran through scenario writing. METHODS: This study was conducted in three stages including the scenario writing approach, qualitative methods, and exploratory future research. First, potential variables affecting future oral and dental health systems were extracted through interviews. The focus group discussion determined the uncertainty and importance of the variables. Then, the cross-impact balance matrix was imported into the Scenario Wizard software to identify the different states of the scenario generator variables and compatible scenarios were extracted. RESULTS: Seventy variables were extracted as key variables affecting the future of oral and dental health. Regarding the importance and uncertainty, seventeen variables scored higher and fell into policy and governance, economy and financing, social, service delivery, and technology, serving as five categories of scenario generators. Fifteen scenarios with weak consistency and three with strong consistency were obtained using the Cross-Impact Balance matrix in Scenario Wizard software. CONCLUSION: The probability of a pessimistic scenario where all five categories of the scenarios were in the worst possible state was higher due to its consistency. The government's support policies and commitment to oral and dental health were two key factors in the future. Achieving an optimistic and favorable scenario for the future of the country's oral and dental health system depends on the government and policymakers in the health sector adopting a positive attitude towards the role of oral and dental health services in improving societal health. In this scenario, the five categories of the scenario generators were in the best condition.

Network analysis of Iranian's health insurance ecosystem before and after the introduction of Universal Health Insurance law.

INTRODUCTION: The policy-making process in health reform is challenging due to the complexity of organizations, overlapping roles, and diversity of responsibilities. The present study aims to investigate and analyze the network of actors in the Iran health insurance ecosystem regarding the laws before and after the adoption of the Universal Health Insurance (UHI). METHODS: The present study was done by sequential exploratory mixed method research, consisting of two distinct phases. During the qualitative phase, the actors and issues pertaining to the laws of the Iranian health insurance ecosystem from 1971 to 2021 were identified through a systematic search of the laws and regulations section of the Research Center of the Islamic Legislative Assembly website. Qualitative data was analyzed in three steps using directed content analysis. During the quantitative phase, in order to draw the communication network of the actors in Iran's health insurance ecosystem, the data related to the nodes and links of the networks was collected. The communication networks were drawn using Gephi software and the micro- and macro-indicators of network were calculated and analyzed. RESULTS: There were 245 laws and 510 articles identified in the field of health insurance in Iran from 1971 to 2021. Most of the legal comments were on financial matters and credit allocation, and the payment of premiums. The number of actors before and after the enactment of the UHI Law was 33 and 137, respectively. The Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the Iran Health Insurance Organization were found the two main actors in the network before and after the approval of this law. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting a UHI Law and delegating various legal missions and tasks, often with support to the health insurance organization, have facilitated the achievement of the law objectives. However, it has created a poor governance system and a network of actors with low coherence. Based on the results of the study, it is suggested to reduce actor roles and separate them for better governance and to prevent corruption in health insurance ecosystem. Introducing knowledge and technology brokers can be effective in strengthening governance and filling the structural gaps between actors.

The analysis of National Health Accounts and financial communications network in Iran health insurance ecosystem.

BACKGROUND: One of the major reforms in the health system of any country is the financing reform. Network analysis as a practical method for investigating complex systems allows distinguishing prominent actors in the relation networks. Leading to the identification of the effective actors and key links between them, the analysis of financial networks helps policymakers to implement reformations by providing appropriate evidence. This study aimed to design and analyze the network of National Health Accounts (NHA) and the cost network in the Iran health insurance ecosystem. METHODS: The present study is a network analysis study based on the data from NHA, and both cost and referral rates that was conducted in 2021. Data, which was for the years 2014 to 2018 and related to NHA, was collected from the Statistical Center of Iran, and cost data and referral rates, which were both related to Basic Insurance Organizations (BIOs), were collected from statistical yearbooks. To analyze the network and identify the key actors, macro indicators, such as network size and density, and micro indicators, such as centrality indicators and the combined importance index, were used. RESULTS: In the financing of the health system in Iran, insurance organizations, as agents and sources of financing, do not have a very good position, so direct payments have become a key element in the network of NHA. Providing treatment-oriented services is quite prior. Regarded to health services, hospitals and outpatient services, such as pharmacies and physicians are the key elements of cost and referral rates respectively. CONCLUSION: Consisting of several organizations with different insurance policies and being supervised under different ministries, Iran's health financing system lacks a coherent structure. It is suggested to create a coherent insurance system by creating a single governance system and paying more attention to health-oriented instead of treatment-oriented services. The health insurance ecosystem has become a health-oriented system to reduce the direct payments as well as cost management.

Drivers, uncertainties, and future scenarios of the Iranian health system.

BACKGROUND: Health promotion is an essential dimension of sustainable development in any country. It has a high degree of complexity, with numerous components interacting both inside and outside of the system, so having a systemic and forward-looking approach is essential to planning for the future. METHODS: The research has been designed based on scenario-based planning in three main stages. The data gathering was qualitative by working group meetings and compiling an importance-uncertainty questionnaire to complete the cross-impact analysis matrix. The MicMac and scenario Wizard has been used for data analysis. RESULTS: The scoping review and upstream document evaluation lead to 54 key variables for analyzing the Iranian health system (HS). The MicMac analysis ends by determining seven key variables: power, politics, and communication network; lifestyle and behavioral factors; quality of human resources training and education; environmental and occupational risk factors, payment and tariff system, and allocation pattern; support society / individuals health; and services effectiveness, especially para-clinical and outpatient ones. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. collective equity was the priority of the HS vision in the desirable scenario, consisting of the most favorable state of the uncertainties. The second, third, and fourth scenarios are also considered desirable. In the disaster scenario, which is the most pessimistic type of consistent scenario in this study, health and equity are not significant either in the social or individual dimensions. In the sixth scenario, the individual dimension of health and equity is the most critical perspective of the HS. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the unsustainability and high complexity of the Iran's HS, the development and excellence of the HS governance based on the Iran context and health advocacy improvement (applying good governance); creating sustainable financial resources and rational consumption; and human resources training and education are three main principles leading the HS to the images of the desired scenarios.

Health protection challenges of slums residents during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the social determinants of health framework: A case study of Kerman city in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic can aggravate the health problems in slum areas. The present study intends to examine the challenges of health protection of slum's residences during the COVID-19 pandemic with the Social Determinants of Health perspective, in Kerman city in Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The present study was a qualitative content analysis. Data were collected by purposeful sampling in-depth and semi-structured interviews with 16 people. The interviews were conducted (from October to December 2020) with the local representatives of the slum's residents, health-care workers, managers of facilitation offices, and welfare social service centers that are located in slum areas (Interview's guide is attached). The textual material from the interviews was entered into the MAXQDA software and directed content analysis was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Data analysis led to the identification of 4 categories (Sociocultural, Situational, Economical, and Physical environment) and 12 subcategories: Sociocultural: lack of awareness, begging culture, low trust in disease control programs, low bottom-up planning, and increasing violence; Situational: decreasing donors' activities and canceling important meetings; Economical: unemployment, decreasing in income, and increasing limitations of many institutions in providing resources; and Physical environment: inadequate space and inappropriate conditions in some houses and alleys for people protection against Corona viruses. CONCLUSIONS: Slum residents have faced many challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. These challenges can affect the health of slum and other urban dwellers. Multidisciplinary thinking and actions are needed. Increase awareness and engagement slum residents in control disease programs should be considered.

Fairness in household financial contribution to the Iran's healthcare system from 2008 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Enhancing financial protection in health is one of the main goals of Iran's health transformation program (HTP), a recent reform conducted in early 2014. This study aimed to measure financial protection using the fair financial contribution index (FFCI) in urban and rural areas before (2008-2013) and after (2014-2018) the HTP implementation. Using a retrospective study on annual national cross-sectional surveys of households' income and expenditure, FFCI was measured. The total sample sizes for urban and rural areas from 2008 to 2018 were 207,980 and 212,249 households, respectively. RESULTS: The worst fair contributions to health expenditure in urban (FFCI = 0.684) and rural areas (FFCI = 0.530) were related to 2010 and 2009, respectively. Otherwise, the best fair contributions for urban (FFCI = 0.858) and rural (FFCI = 0.836) areas were made in 2011. Before the HTP implementation began, FFCI showed minor changes from 0.834 in 2008 to 0.833 in 2013. Following the HTP implementation, the FFCI values in urban and rural populations declined (worsened) from 0.842 to 0.836 and 0.816 to 0.809, respectively.On average more fair financial contributions had been made following five years after the HTP, especially in rural areas, but less than that expected in upstream documents (as determined 0.9).

Effective factors and drivers of Iran's health care financing system.

Background: Different factors affect Iran's health care financing system, and regardless of this impact, the future of this system will face fundamental challenges. In this environment, a health system is successful if it is able to anticipate the effects of these factors in the future of health care financing and preplan appropriate interventions towards health care financing system. The present study aims to identify these factors and trends. Methods: This study compiled a round view of the experts on the subject, with a future studies approach through a qualitative method. To collect data, a deep and semi-structured interview was performed. The results of the interviews were analyzed using content analysis method, and the primary and secondary themes were extracted using the Micmac software. Results: A total of 71 variables were identified in the form of 12 groups with titles of stewardship, service provision, resource gathering, purchasing and resource allocation, sociocultural, technological, environmental, economic, political, and managerial, and laws and values. Four variables, including distant-service provision, administrative bureaucracy, administrative focus and corruption, low-support decision-making, economic blockade, and sales of oil were among the influential factors and drivers. Conclusion: The findings showed Iran's financing system is relatively stable but fragile and 3 areas of technology, politics, and economics have the most impact on structuring Iran's financing system.

Measuring inequalities in the selected indicators of National Health Accounts from 2008 to 2016: evidence from Iran.

BACKGROUND: Increase in total health expenditures is one of the main challenges of health systems worldwide, and its inequality is considered as a concern in global arena especially developing countries. This study aims to measure inequality in the distribution of selected indicators of national health accounts across the Iranian provinces. METHODS: In this study, the data on health financing agents from provincial health accounts from 2008 to 2016 were collected. Gini coefficient (GC) was used to measure inequality. The population and the number of service providers in each province were the bases to measure the GC. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) and the Rate Ratio (RR) were used to determine the dispersion and variation across the provinces. Disparity index was employed to measure the average deviation of the out-of-pocket (OOP) proportion from the desired OOP proportion presented in national development plans (NDPs) of Iran. RESULTS: The distribution of resources using both bases were unequal, especially in OOP, with the highest rate over the years studied, ranging from 0.50 to 0.59. The inequality in public resources was lower, with Health Insurance Organization dropping from 0.42 to 0.40 over the years. CV and RR also confirmed the inequality in health resources distribution. In the years 2014 and 2015, the lowest and highest levels were 0.22 and 0.39, respectively. The values of disparity index for OOP had a fluctuating trend ranging from 37.01 to 65.85%. CONCLUSION: Inequality in the distribution of public health expenditures was moderate to high. Moreover, inequality in private health expenditures was higher than public one. Distribution of OOP spent by households at provincial level showed a high inequality. It is suggested that inequality measures to be considered in NDPs to illustrate how resources are distributed at the geographical level. NHA framework can help to provide robust evidence base for policymaking.

Forecasting health expenditures in Iran using the ARIMA model (2016-2020).

Background: Accurate economic forecast has important effects on governmental policy and economic planning, and it can help policymakers to make decisions for future and create new infrastructures for the development of new forecasting methods. This study calculated total health expenditure, public health expenditure and out of pocket (OOP) payment for 2016-2020. Methods: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process (ARIMA) is one of the most important forecasting models. In this study, five-year values were forecasted using EViews8 software according to health expenditures in Iran from 1971 to 2015. Results: Applying annual data for total health expenditure, resulted in the ARIMA (1,1,1) model being the most appropriate to predict these costs. The results of this study indicate that total health expenditures will reach from about 1228338 billion IRR in 2016 to 2698346 billion IRR in 2020 and the amount of out of pocket (OOP) will become more than 41% of total health expenditure in 2020. Conclusion: Total health expenditures in 2020 will become more than two halves in 2016. These expenditures indicated there is a need for continued governmental support of this sector during the upcoming years.

Effective factors in non-compliance with therapeutic orders of specialists in outpatient clinics in Iran: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Non-compliance with prescribed treatment is an important cause of preventable mortality and economic burden. Recognition of the factors for non-compliance with the therapeutic orders of specialists from the perspective of patients and health care providers sheds more light on the issue for policymakers and stakeholders. The current study aimed at determining the factors for non-compliance with therapeutic orders in outpatient clinics in Kerman, Iran. METHODS: The current qualitative study was conducted using the phenomenological method and semi-structured interviews with 10 patients, five specialists, and four health care managers and treatment officials in outpatient clinics in Kerman. The interviewees were selected by purposive sampling. The codes extracted from the interviews were transcribed using conventional content analysis to identify the viewpoints. The MAXQDA 10 software was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The reasons for non-compliance with specialists' orders were categorized into five themes including patient-related (patient-centered), disease-related, therapy-related, the healthcare provider related (healthcare system), and socioeconomic factors. Themes were composed of fifteen categories and forty-one sub-categories. The dominant sub-categories extracted from interviews were health literacy and knowledge of the patient, communication and patients' trust in physicians and direct costs of treatment. CONCLUSION: This study identified a wide range of different individual, disease, treatment, health care provider, and socio-economic factors and the interactions between them which may result into non-compliance with therapeutic orders prescribed by specialists. Therefore, specific attention should be paid to integrate the service provision system into the collaborative approach of the patient and his/her family in order to promote the level of compliance with therapy and care in planning and policy-making to improve the health service provision system.

Measuring Catastrophic Health Expenditures and its Inequality: Evidence from Iran's Health Transformation Program.

One of the important goals of Iran's health transformation programme (HTP) is to improve financial protection for households against health expenditure. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence, intensity and inequality in distribution of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) using the WHO and the World Bank (WB) methodologies with different thresholds in the years before and after HTP. We used data from seven annual national repeated cross-sectional surveys on households' income and expenditures from 2011 to 2017. The intensity to CHE was calculated using overshoot and mean positive overshoot (MPO) indices. Finally, the inequality in distribution of exposure to CHE was calculated using the concentration index (CI), and the dominance test of concentration curves was used to inference about the significant changes in inequality of the years before and after HTP. The exposure rate to CHE in the total population and at 40% threshold of the WHO methodology changed from 1.99% in 2011 to 3.46% in 2017. Additionally, at 20% threshold of the WB methodology, it was changed from 5.14% to 8.68%. Overshoot and MPO indices increased on average based on two methodologies in urban and rural areas during seven years. The CIs for all the years show a negative value in both methodologies, indicating that CHE occurrence is higher among the poor households. In 2017, at 40% threshold of the WHO, the numerical values of the CIs were -0.15 and -0.14 in urban and rural populations, respectively. These values were -0.07 and -0.05 for the 20% threshold of WB, respectively. Results of dominance test showed no significant change in inequality for the years after than before HTP with two exceptions for total and rural populations based on the WB methodology. Generally, HTP had no considerable success in financial protection, requiring a review in actions to support pro-poor adaptation strategies.

Challenges of implementation: Strategic purchasing in Iran Health Insurance Organization.

BACKGROUND: Strategic purchasing has been introduced as a key strategy for solving the problems faced by insurance companies. In Iran, the government has mandated the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO) to implement this strategy. However, there are serious challenges to achieving that. The present study aims to identify these challenges. METHODS: In this qualitative study, a semi-structured interview was conducted on 27 health managers and experts at the national level. The dimensions of the A. Preker model were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Challenges of strategic purchasing in the IHIO were categorized into five concepts-political economy, policy design, organizational structure, organizational environment, and management capacity; within these concepts, 22 challenges were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Improving strategic purchasing in Iran requires adopting a coherent approach and taking into account all the affecting factors. By revising some policies, and modifying and defining the rules needed to solve the infrastructural problems, the success of strategic purchasing can be obtained.

A paradoxical situation in regressivity or progressivity of out of pocket payment for health care: which one is a matter of the health policy maker's decision to intervention?

BACKGROUND: Equity in health financing as one main aspect of health equity plays an essential role on the path toward universal health coverage. Out of pocket payment (OOP), a source with high share to total health expenditure, is an inequitable mechanism for health financing. MAIN BODY: The OOP has been considered regressive (Kakwani index with a negative value) in nature. However, in some studies especially in developing countries, it is reported to be progressive (Kakwani index with a positive value). The main questions are: Is the progressive OOP equitable? What causes this contradiction? What can we do for the proper interpretation? And what are policy implications of this issue? In this commentary we briefly elaborate on these issues. We present several reasons for progressivity of OOP, and several methodological and policy issues for addressing it. CONCLUSIONS: Even if the OOP is progressive and the share of poor people is low, this may financially limit their access to health services, increase their risk of incurring catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and even pushing them more into poverty. In order to provide a comprehensive picture of equity in health financing, other financial protection indicators such as the redistributive effect, re-rating, exposure to CHE, and impoverishment due to health expenditure should also be estimated and reviewed.

Prevalence and intensity of catastrophic health care expenditures in Iran from 2008 to 2015: a study on Iranian household income and expenditure survey.

BACKGROUND: Households exposure to catastrophic health expenditure is a valuable measure to monitor financial protection in health sector payments. The present study had two aims: first, to estimate the prevalence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) in Iran. Second, to investigate main factors that influence the probability of CHE. METHODS: CHE is defined as an occasion in which a household's out-of-pocket (OOP) spending exceeds 40% of the total income that remains after subtraction of living expenses. This study used the data from eight national repeated cross-sectional surveys on households' income and expenditure. The proportion of households facing CHE, as a prevalence measure, was estimated for rural and urban areas. The intensity of CHE was also calculated using overshoot and mean positive overshoot (MPO) measures. The factors affecting the CHE were also analyzed using logistic random effects regression model. We also used ArcMap 10.1 to display visually disparities across the country. RESULTS: An increasing number of Iranians has been subject to catastrophic health care costs over the study period in both rural and urban areas (CHE = 2.57% in 2008 and 3.25% in 2015). In the same period, the overshoot of CHE and the mean positive overshoot ranged from 0.26% to 0.65% and from 12.26% to 20.86%, respectively. The average absolute monetary value of OOP spending per month has been low in rural areas over the years, but the prevalence of CHE has been higher than urban areas. Generally put, rural settlement, higher income, receiving inpatient and outpatient services, and existence of elderly people in the household led to increase in CHE prevalence (p < 0.05). Interestingly, provinces with more limited geographical and cultural accessibility had the lowest CHE. CONCLUSIONS: According to the findings, Iran's healthcare system has failed to realize the aim of five-year national development plan regarding CHE prevalence (1% CHE prevalence according to the plan). Therefore, revision of financial health care protection policies focusing on pre-payments seems mandatory. For instance, these policies should extend the interventions that target low-income populations particularly in rural areas, provide more coverage for catastrophic medical services in basic benefit packages, and develop supplementary health insurance.

Health technology assessment on super oxidized water for treatment of chronic wounds.

BACKGROUND: Super oxidized water (SOW), as a novel antiseptic solution, is used with claims of effectiveness and cost effectiveness in healing chronic wounds such as diabetic foot, infectious postoperative ulcers and burn ulcers. We conducted a health technology assessment to evaluate the clinical evidence from clinical and randomized trials for this disinfection. This study aims to evaluate the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of this technology in Iran, for using as a wound disinfectant. METHODS: Systematic literature searches were conducted from October 2013 to March 2014 for the following medical databases: OVID MEDLINE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and the PICO terms were included and then analyzed by Cochrane assessment criteria. RESULTS: Out of 705 articles, twelve potentially relevant trials were identified. Others that didn't come with the PICO criteria were excluded. 5 randomized controlled trials, 5 clinical trials, a rapid HTA and a case series that had studied the effectiveness of super oxidized water on patients with different chronic wounds, were included. Most of these trials were assessing similar sets of outcomes as the Safety and Effect on Healing days to re-epithelization, healing rate, effect on Infection bacterial counts and infection rates. CONCLUSION: Super oxidized water is a safe, effective and cost effective irrigation and cleansing agent due to the performed analysis in comparison with current treatment as povidone iodine for treating wound infections.

Provincial health accounts in Kerman, Iran: an evidence of a "mixed" healthcare financing system.

BACKGROUND: Provincial Health Accounts (PHA) as a subset of National Health Accounts (NHA) present financial information for health sectors. It leads to a logical decision making for policy-makers in order to achieve health system goals, especially Fair Financial Contribution (FFC). This study aimed to examine Health Accounts in Kerman Province. METHODS: The present analytical study was carried out retrospectively between 2008 and 2011. The research population consisted of urban and rural households as well as providers and financial agents in health sectors of Kerman Province. The purposeful sampling included 16 provincial organizations. To complete data, the report on Kerman household expenditure was taken as a data source from the Governor-General's office. In order to classify the data, the International Classification for Health Accounts (ICHA) method was used, in which data set was adjusted for the province. RESULTS: During the study, the governmental and non-governmental fund shares of the health sector in Kerman were 27.22% and 72.78% respectively. The main portion of financial sources (59.41) was related to private household funds, of which the Out-of-Pocket (OOP) payment mounted to 92.35%. Overall, 54.86% of all financial sources were covered by OOP. The greatest portion of expenditure of Total Healthcare Expenditures (THEs) (65.19%) was related to curative services. CONCLUSION: The major portion of healthcare expenditures was related to the OOP payment which is compatible with the national average rate in Iran. However, health expenditure per capita, was two and a half times higher than the national average. By emphasizing on Social Determinant of Health (SDH) approach in the Iranian health system, the portion of OOP payment and curative expenditure are expected to be controlled in the medium term. It is suggested that PHA should be examined annually in a more comprehensive manner to monitor initiatives and reforms in healthcare sector.