Brief Report: HIV Drug Resistance Assessment Among Women Who Seroconverted During the MTN-025/HOPE Open-Label Extension Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials of dapivirine (DPV) vaginal ring have shown it is safe, effective, and desired by women as an HIV prevention option. The risk of drug resistance is a potential concern for DPV ring users who acquire HIV. We conducted a comprehensive resistance evaluation of plasma samples from the women who seroconverted during the Microbicide Trials Network-025/HIV Open-label Prevention Extension (HOPE) study of DPV ring. METHODS: Plasma collected on the visit at which seroconversion was detected was tested by next-generation sequencing with unique molecular identifiers for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) drug resistance mutations (DRM) present at ≥1% frequency. Bulk-cloned plasma-derived recombinant HIV was phenotyped in a TZM-bl-based assay for susceptibility to DPV and other NNRTI. HIV-1 RNA was retrospectively quantified in plasma samples collected before HIV seroconversion. RESULTS: Among 38 participants who seroconverted in HOPE, 7 (18%) had NNRTI DRM detected by next-generation sequencing with unique molecular identifiers including A98G, K103N, V106M, E138A, and V179D. Six of 7 samples with NNRTI DRM had <3-fold reduction in susceptibility to DPV. Only 1 sample with K103N and V179I polymorphism had 9-fold reduction in susceptibility to DPV, but this genotype occurred in an individual who did not use DPV ring, likely indicating transmitted resistance. Detection of NNRTI resistance was not higher in individuals who remained on DPV ring >3 months after acquiring HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: NNRTI resistance among women who seroconverted during HOPE was infrequent and selection of DPV-specific mutations was not detected. DPV ring is considered a safe and effective option for HIV prevention in women.

Assessment of Novel Mesothelin-Specific Human Antibody Domain VH-Fc Fusion Proteins-Based PET Agents.

Mesothelin (MSLN) is a tumor-associated antigen found in a variety of cancers and is a target for imaging and therapeutic applications in MSLN-expressing tumors. We have developed high affinity anti-MSLN human VH domain antibodies, providing alternative targeting vectors to conventional IgG antibodies that are associated with long-circulating half-lives and poor penetration of tumors, limiting antitumor activity in clinical trials. Based on two newly identified anti-MSLN VH binders (3C9, 2A10), we generated VH-Fc fusion proteins and modified them for zirconium-89 radiolabeling to create anti-MSLN VH-Fc PET tracers. The focus of this study was to assess the ability of PET-imaging to compare the in vivo performance of anti-MSLN VH-Fc fusion proteins (2A10, 3C9) targeting different epitopes of MSLN vs IgG1 (m912; a clinical benchmark antibody with an overlapped epitope as 2A10) for PET imaging in a mouse model of colorectal cancer (CRC). The anti-MSLN VH-Fc fusion proteins were successfully modified and radiolabeled with zirconium-89. The resulting MSLN-targeted PET-imaging agents demonstrated specific uptake in the MSLN-expressing HCT116 tumors. The in vivo performance of the MSLN-targeted PET-imaging agents utilizing VH-Fc showed more rapid and greater accumulation and deeper penetration within the tumor than the full-length IgG1 m912-based PET-imaging agent. Furthermore, PET imaging allowed us to compare the pharmacokinetics of epitope-specific VH domain-based PET tracers. Overall, these data are encouraging for the incorporation of PET imaging to assess modified VH domain structures to develop novel anti-MSLN VH domain-based therapeutics in MSLN-positive cancers as well as their companion PET imaging agents.

Prospective assessment of humoral and cellular immune responses to a 3rd COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose among immunocompromised individuals.

BACKGROUND: Improved COVID-19 prevention is needed for immunocompromised individuals. METHODS: Prospective study of healthcare workers (HCW) and immunocompromised participants with baseline serology following 2 mRNA vaccines and who were retested after dose 3 (D3); multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of serological responses. IFNγ/TNFα T-cell responses were assessed in a subset. RESULTS: 536 participants were included: 492 immunocompromised [(206 solid organ transplant (SOT), 128 autoimmune, 80 hematologic malignancy (HM), 48 solid tumor, 25 HIV], 44 HCW. D3 significantly increased Spike IgG levels among all, but SOT and HM participants had the lowest median antibody levels post-D3 (increase from 0.09 to 0.83 and 0.27 to 1.92, respectively), versus HCW and persons with HIV, autoimmune conditions, and solid tumors (increases from 4.44 to 19.79, 2.9 to 15.75, 3.82 to 16.32, and 4.1 to 25.54, respectively). Seropositivity post-D3 was lowest for SOT (49.0%) and HM (57.8%), versus others (>90% seropositive). Neutralization post-D3 was lowest among SOT and HM. Predictors of lower antibody levels included low baseline levels and shorter intervals between vaccines. T-cell responses against Spike increased significantly among HCW and non-significantly among immunocompromised individuals. CONCLUSIONS: D3 significantly improves serological but not T-cell responses among immunocompromised individuals. SOT and HM patients have suboptimal responses to D3.

Preclinical assessment of a novel human antibody VH domain targeting mesothelin as an antibody-drug conjugate.

Mesothelin (MSLN) has been a validated tumor-associated antigen target for several solid tumors for over a decade, making it an attractive option for therapeutic interventions. Novel antibodies with high affinity and better therapeutic properties are needed. In the current study, we have isolated and characterized a novel heavy chain variable (VH) domain 3C9 from a large-size human immunoglobulin VH domain library. 3C9 exhibited high affinity (KD [dissociation constant] <3 nM) and binding specificity in a membrane proteome array (MPA). In a mouse xenograft model, 3C9 fused to human IgG1 Fc was detected at tumor sites as early as 8 h post-infusion and remained at the site for over 10 days. Furthermore, 3C9 fused to a human Fc domain drug conjugate effectively inhibited MSLN-positive tumor growth in a mouse xenograft model. The X-ray crystal structure of full-length MSLN in complex with 3C9 reveals interaction of the 3C9 domains with two distinctive residue patches on the MSLN surface. This newly discovered VH antibody domain has a high potential as a therapeutic candidate for MSLN-expressing cancers.

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS: In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION: Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessment of Clinical Outcomes Among Children and Adolescents Hospitalized With COVID-19 in 6 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

IMPORTANCE: Little is known about COVID-19 outcomes among children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, where preexisting comorbidities are prevalent. OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical outcomes and factors associated with outcomes among children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 in 6 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study was a retrospective record review of data from 25 hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda from March 1 to December 31, 2020, and included 469 hospitalized patients aged 0 to 19 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection. EXPOSURES: Age, sex, preexisting comorbidities, and region of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: An ordinal primary outcome scale was used comprising 5 categories: (1) hospitalization without oxygen supplementation, (2) hospitalization with oxygen supplementation, (3) ICU admission, (4) invasive mechanical ventilation, and (5) death. The secondary outcome was length of hospital stay. RESULTS: Among 469 hospitalized children and adolescents, the median age was 5.9 years (IQR, 1.6-11.1 years); 245 patients (52.4%) were male, and 115 (24.5%) had comorbidities. A total of 39 patients (8.3%) were from central Africa, 172 (36.7%) from eastern Africa, 208 (44.3%) from southern Africa, and 50 (10.7%) from western Africa. Eighteen patients had suspected (n = 6) or confirmed (n = 12) multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Thirty-nine patients (8.3%) died, including 22 of 69 patients (31.9%) who required intensive care unit admission and 4 of 18 patients (22.2%) with suspected or confirmed multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Among 468 patients, 418 (89.3%) were discharged, and 16 (3.4%) remained hospitalized. The likelihood of outcomes with higher vs lower severity among children younger than 1 year expressed as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 4.89 (95% CI, 1.44-16.61) times higher than that of adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. The presence of hypertension (aOR, 5.91; 95% CI, 1.89-18.50), chronic lung disease (aOR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.65-5.37), or a hematological disorder (aOR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.04-9.24) was associated with severe outcomes. Age younger than 1 year (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [asHR], 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.87), the presence of 1 comorbidity (asHR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.72), and the presence of 2 or more comorbidities (asHR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.18-0.38) were associated with reduced rates of hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, high rates of morbidity and mortality were observed among infants and patients with noncommunicable disease comorbidities, suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination and therapeutic interventions are needed for young populations in this region.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance.

INTRODUCTION: Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

Dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention: modelling health outcomes, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness.

INTRODUCTION: A vaginal ring containing dapivirine is effective for HIV prevention as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We evaluated the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP among 22- to 45-year-old women in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: Using mathematical modelling, we studied dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP implementation, either unprioritized, or prioritized based on HIV incidence (≥3% per year), age (22 to 29 years) or female sex worker status, alongside the implementation of voluntary medical male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy scaled-up to UNAIDS Fast-Track targets. Outcomes over the intervention (2019 to 2030) and lifetime horizons included cumulative HIV infections, life-years lived, costs and cost-effectiveness. We assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios against the revealed willingness to pay ($500) and the standard (2017 per capita gross domestic product; $6161) cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa. RESULTS: Compared to a reference scenario without PrEP, implementation of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP, assuming 56% effectiveness and covering 50% of 22 to 29-year-old or high-incidence women, prevented 10% or 11% of infections by 2030 respectively. Equivalent, unprioritized coverage (30%) prevented fewer infections (7%), whereas 50% coverage of female sex workers had the least impact (4%). Drug resistance attributable to PrEP was modest (2% to 4% of people living with drug-resistant HIV). Over the lifetime horizon, dapivirine PrEP implementation among female sex workers was cost-saving, whereas incidence-based PrEP cost $1898 per life-year gained, relative to PrEP among female sex workers and $989 versus the reference scenario. In a scenario of 37% PrEP effectiveness, PrEP had less impact, but prioritization to female sex workers remained cost-saving. In uncertainty analysis, female sex worker PrEP was consistently cost-saving; and over the lifetime horizon, PrEP cost less than $6161 per life-year gained in over 99% of simulations, whereas incidence- and age-based PrEP cost below $500 per life-year gained in 61% and 49% of simulations respectively. PrEP adherence and efficacy, and the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for HIV prevention, were the principal drivers of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: Dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP would be cost-saving in KwaZulu-Natal if prioritized to female sex workers. PrEP's impact on HIV prevention would be increased, with potential affordability, if prioritized to women by age or incidence.

Assessing intra-lab precision and inter-lab repeatability of outgrowth assays of HIV-1 latent reservoir size.

Quantitative viral outgrowth assays (QVOA) use limiting dilutions of CD4+ T cells to measure the size of the latent HIV-1 reservoir, a major obstacle to curing HIV-1. Efforts to reduce the reservoir require assays that can reliably quantify its size in blood and tissues. Although QVOA is regarded as a "gold standard" for reservoir measurement, little is known about its accuracy and precision or about how cell storage conditions or laboratory-specific practices affect results. Owing to this lack of knowledge, confidence intervals around reservoir size estimates-as well as judgments of the ability of therapeutic interventions to alter the size of the replication-competent but transcriptionally inactive latent reservoir-rely on theoretical statistical assumptions about dilution assays. To address this gap, we have carried out a Bayesian statistical analysis of QVOA reliability on 75 split samples of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 5 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-suppressed participants, measured using four different QVOAs at separate labs, estimating assay precision and the effect of frozen cell storage on estimated reservoir size. We found that typical assay results are expected to differ from the true value by a factor of 1.6 to 1.9 up or down. Systematic assay differences comprised a 24-fold range between the assays with highest and lowest scales, likely reflecting differences in viral outgrowth readout and input cell stimulation protocols. We also found that controlled-rate freezing and storage of samples did not cause substantial differences in QVOA compared to use of fresh cells (95% probability of < 2-fold change), supporting continued use of frozen storage to allow transport and batched analysis of samples. Finally, we simulated an early-phase clinical trial to demonstrate that batched analysis of pre- and post-therapy samples may increase power to detect a three-fold reservoir reduction by 15 to 24 percentage points.

Achieving Viral Suppression in 90% of People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities.

Although significant progress has been made, the latest data from low- and middle-income countries show substantial gaps in reaching the third "90%" (viral suppression) of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals, especially among vulnerable and key populations. This article discusses critical gaps and promising, evidence-based solutions. There is no simple and/or single approach to achieve the last 90%. This will require multifaceted, scalable strategies that engage people living with human immunodeficiency virus, motivate long-term treatment adherence, and are community-entrenched and ­supported, cost-effective, and tailored to a wide range of global communities.

Raltegravir in second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings (SELECT): a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority study.

BACKGROUND: For second-line antiretroviral therapy, WHO recommends a boosted protease inhibitor plus nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). However, concerns about toxicity and cross-resistance motivated a search for regimens that do not contain NRTIs. We aimed to assess whether boosted lopinavir plus raltegravir would be non-inferior to boosted lopinavir plus NRTIs for virological suppression in resource-limited settings. METHODS: A5273 was a randomised, open-label, phase 3, non-inferiority study at 15 AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) research sites in nine resource-limited countries (three sites each in India and South Africa, two each in Malawi and Peru, and one each in Brazil, Kenya, Tanzania, Thailand, and Zimbabwe). Adults with plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations of at least 1000 copies per mL after at least 24 weeks on a regimen based on a non-NRTI inhibitor were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (100 mg ritonavir, 400 mg lopinavir) plus 400 mg raltegravir twice a day (raltegravir group) or to ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus two or three NRTIs selected from an algorithm (eg, zidovudine after failure with tenofovir and vice versa; NRTI group). Randomised group assignment was done with a computer algorithm concealed to site personnel, and stratified by HIV-1 RNA viral load, CD4 cell count, and intention to use zidovudine, with the groups balanced by each site. The primary endpoint was time to confirmed virological failure (two measurements of HIV-1 RNA viral load >400 copies per mL) at or after week 24 in the intention-to-treat population. Non-inferiority (10% margin) was assessed by comparing the cumulative probability of virological failure by 48 weeks. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01352715. FINDINGS: Between March 13, 2012, and Oct 2, 2013, we randomly assigned 515 participants: 260 to the raltegravir group and 255 to the NRTI group; two participants in the raltegravir group and one in the NRTI group were excluded from analyses because of ineligibility. By the end of follow-up (October, 2014), 96 participants had virological failure (46 in the raltegravir group and 50 in the NRTI group). By 48 weeks, the cumulative probability of virological failure was 10·3% (95% CI 6·5-14·0) in the raltegravir group and 12·4% (8·3-16·5) in the NRTI group, with a weighted difference of -3·4% (-8·4 to 1·5), indicating that raltegravir was non-inferior, but not superior, to NRTIs. 62 (24%) participants in the raltegravir group and 81 (32%) in the NRTI group had grade 3 or higher adverse events; 19 (7%) and 29 (11%), respectively, had serious adverse events. Three participants in each group died, all from HIV-related causes. INTERPRETATION: In settings with extensive NRTI resistance but no available resistance testing, our data support WHO's recommendation for ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus NRTI for second-line antiretroviral therapy. Ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus raltegravir is an appropriate alternative, especially if NRTI use is limited by toxicity. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Cost-effectiveness of Injectable Preexposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable antiretrovirals such as rilpivirine (RPV) could promote adherence to preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. However, the cost-effectiveness of injectable PrEP is unclear. METHODS: We constructed a dynamic model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and analyzed scenarios of RPV PrEP scale-up for combination HIV prevention in comparison with a reference scenario without PrEP. We estimated new HIV infections, life-years and costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), over 10-year and lifetime horizons, assuming a societal perspective. RESULTS: Compared with no PrEP, unprioritized scale-up of RVP PrEP covering 2.5%-15% of adults prevented up to 9% of new infections over 10 years. HIV prevention doubled (17%) when the same coverage was prioritized to 20- to 29-year-old women, costing $10 880-$19 213 per infection prevented. Prioritization of PrEP to 80% of individuals at highest behavioral risk achieved comparable prevention (4%-8%) at <1% overall coverage, costing $298-$1242 per infection prevented. Over lifetime, PrEP scale-up among 20- to 29-year-old women was very cost-effective (<$1600 per life-year gained), dominating unprioritized PrEP, while risk prioritization was cost-saving. PrEP's 10-year impact decreased by almost 50% with increases in ICERs (up to 4.2-fold) in conservative base-case analysis. Sensitivity analysis identified PrEP's costs, efficacy, and reliability of delivery as the principal drivers of uncertainty in PrEP's cost-effectiveness, and PrEP remained cost-effective under the assumption of universal access to second-line antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with no PrEP, prioritized scale-up of RPV PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal could be very cost-effective or cost-saving, but suboptimal PrEP would erode benefits and increase costs.

Planning for pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV transmission: challenges and opportunities.

There are currently several ongoing or planned trials evaluating the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a preventative approach to reducing the transmission of HIV. PrEP may prove ineffective, demonstrate partial efficacy, or show high efficacy and have the potential to reduce HIV infection in a significant way. However, in addition to the trial results, it is important that issues related to delivery, implementation and further research are also discussed. As a part of the ongoing discussion, in June 2009, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored a Planning for PrEP conference with stakeholders to review expected trial results, outline responsible educational approaches, and develop potential delivery and implementation strategies. The conference reinforced the need for continued and sustained dialogue to identify where PrEP implementation may fit best within an integrated HIV prevention package. This paper identifies the key action points that emerged from the Planning for PrEP meeting.

Simplification strategies to reduce antiretroviral drug exposure: progress and prospects.

Current U.S. guidelines for initial therapy of HIV type-1 (HIV-1) infection recommend daily, lifelong treatment with a combination of three antiretroviral drugs consisting of two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors and a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or a protease inhibitor. Although this approach has been successful in reducing morbidity and mortality from HIV-1 infection, concerns remain about adverse events from chronic drug exposure, the requirement for daily medication adherence, the risk of HIV-1 drug resistance and high treatment costs. The availability of antiretrovirals that are coformulated and dosed once daily have reduced pill burden and have simplified dosing schedules, but have not lowered drug exposure or cost. These limitations have stimulated research into drug-sparing strategies including intermittent therapy and simplified maintenance regimens. Randomized clinical trials have shown greater mortality with intermittent therapy compared with continuous therapy leading to rejection of this strategy. Pilot studies of simplified maintenance therapy with a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor alone have shown more promise, although concerns remain. This article reviews progress in the simplification of antiretroviral therapy, recent clinical trial results and prospects for the future.

Potential impact of antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 transmission in resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND: The potential impact of pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) on heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited settings is uncertain. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: A deterministic mathematical model was used to simulate the effects of antiretroviral PrEP on an HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa under different scenarios (optimistic, neutral and pessimistic) both with and without sexual disinhibition. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on model output and included calculation of partial rank correlations and standardized rank regressions. In the scenario without sexual disinhibition after PrEP initiation, key parameters influencing infections prevented were effectiveness of PrEP (partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) = 0.94), PrEP discontinuation rate (PRCC = -0.94), level of coverage (PRCC = 0.92), and time to achieve target coverage (PRCC = -0.82). In the scenario with sexual disinhibition, PrEP effectiveness and the extent of sexual disinhibition had the greatest impact on prevention. An optimistic scenario of PrEP with 90% effectiveness and 75% coverage of the general population predicted a 74% decline in cumulative HIV-1 infections after 10 years, and a 28.8% decline with PrEP targeted to the highest risk groups (16% of the population). Even with a 100% increase in at-risk behavior from sexual disinhibition, a beneficial effect (23.4%-62.7% decrease in infections) was seen with 90% effective PrEP across a broad range of coverage (25%-75%). Similar disinhibition led to a rise in infections with lower effectiveness of PrEP (< or = 50%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Mathematical modeling supports the potential public health benefit of PrEP. Approximately 2.7 to 3.2 million new HIV-1 infections could be averted in southern sub-Saharan Africa over 10 years by targeting PrEP (having 90% effectiveness) to those at highest behavioral risk and by preventing sexual disinhibition. This benefit could be lost, however, by sexual disinhibition and by high PrEP discontinuation, especially with lower PrEP effectiveness (< or = 50%).

Potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV-1 transmission and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on the heterosexual spread of HIV-1 infection and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings. METHODS: A mathematic model of HIV-1 disease progression and transmission was used to assess epidemiologic outcomes under different scenarios of antiretroviral therapy, including implementation of World Health Organization guidelines. RESULTS: Implementing antiretroviral therapy at 5% HIV-1 prevalence and administering it to 100% of AIDS cases are predicted to decrease new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS after 10 years by 11.2% (inter-quartile range [IQR]: 1.8%-21.4%) and 33.4% (IQR: 26%-42.8%), respectively. Later implementation of therapy at endemic equilibrium (40% prevalence) is predicted to be less effective, decreasing new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS by 10.5% (IQR: 2.6%-19.3%) and 27.6% (IQR: 20.8%-36.8%), respectively. Therapy is predicted to benefit the infected individual and the uninfected community by decreasing transmission and AIDS deaths. The community benefit is greater than the individual benefit after 25 years of treatment and increases with the proportion of AIDS cases treated. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral therapy is predicted to have individual and public health benefits that increase with time and the proportion of infected persons treated. The impact of therapy is greater when introduced earlier in an epidemic, but the benefit can be lost by residual infectivity or disease progression on treatment and by sexual disinhibition of the general population.