A decision model to predict the risk of the first fall onset.

BACKGROUND: Miscellaneous features from various domains are accepted to be associated with the risk of falling in the elderly. However, only few studies have focused on establishing clinical tools to predict the risk of the first fall onset. A model that would objectively and easily evaluate the risk of a first fall occurrence in the coming year still needs to be built. OBJECTIVES: We developed a model based on machine learning, which might help the medical staff predict the risk of the first fall onset in a one-year time window. PARTICIPANTS/MEASUREMENTS: Overall, 426 older adults who had never fallen were assessed on 73 variables, comprising medical, social and physical outcomes, at t0. Each fall was recorded at a prospective 1-year follow-up. A decision tree was built on a randomly selected training subset of the cohort (80% of the full-set) and validated on an independent test set. RESULTS: 82 participants experienced a first fall during the follow-up. The machine learning process independently extracted 13 powerful parameters and built a model showing 89% of accuracy for the overall classification with 83%-82% of true positive fallers and 96%-61% of true negative non-fallers (training set vs. independent test set). CONCLUSION: This study provides a pilot tool that could easily help the gerontologists refine the evaluation of the risk of the first fall onset and prioritize the effective prevention strategies. The study also offers a transparent framework for future, related investigation that would validate the clinical relevance of the established model by independently testing its accuracy on larger cohort.

Obesity impact on the attentional cost for controlling posture.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the effects of obesity on attentional resources allocated to postural control in seating and unipedal standing. METHODS: Ten non obese adults (BMI = 22.4±1.3, age = 42.4±15.1) and 10 obese adult patients (BMI = 35.2±2.8, age = 46.2±19.6) maintained postural stability on a force platform in two postural tasks (seated and unipedal). The two postural tasks were performed (1) alone and (2) in a dual-task paradigm in combination with an auditory reaction time task (RT). Performing the RT task together with the postural one was supposed to require some attentional resources that allowed estimating the attentional cost of postural control. 4 trials were performed in each condition for a total of 16 trials. FINDINGS: (1) Whereas seated non obese and obese patients exhibited similar centre of foot pressure oscillations (CoP), in the unipedal stance only obese patients strongly increased their CoP sway in comparison to controls. (2) Whatever the postural task, the additional RT task did not affect postural stability. (3) Seated, RT did not differ between the two groups. (4) RT strongly increased between the two postural conditions in the obese patients only, suggesting that body schema and the use of internal models was altered with obesity. INTERPRETATION: Obese patients needed more attentional resources to control postural stability during unipedal stance than non obese participants. This was not the case in a more simple posture such as seating. To reduce the risk of fall as indicated by the critical values of CoP displacement, obese patients must dedicate a strong large part of their attentional resources to postural control, to the detriment of non-postural events. Obese patients were not able to easily perform multitasking as healthy adults do, reflecting weakened psycho-motor abilities.