Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher-intensity statin therapy across population categories in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality have declined across developed economies and granular up-to-date cost-effectiveness evidence is required for treatments targeting large populations. To assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher intensity statin therapy in the contemporary UK population 40-70 years old. Methods: A cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (117,896 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (501,854 participants; 9 years follow-up), projected risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death for all UK Biobank participants without and with statin treatment. Meta-analyses of trials and cohort studies informed statins' relative effects on cardiovascular events, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. UK healthcare perspective was taken (2020/2021 UK£) with costs per 28 tablets of £1.10 for standard (35%-45% LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction) and £1.68 for higher intensity (≥45% LDL-C reduction) generic statin. Findings: Across categories by sex, age, LDL-C, and cardiovascular disease history/10-year cardiovascular risk, lifetime standard statin increased survival by 0.28-1.85 years (0.20-1.09 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), and higher intensity statin by further 0.06-0.40 years (0.03-0.20 QALYs) per person. Standard statin was cost-effective across all categories with incremental cost per QALY from £280 to £8530, with higher intensity statin cost-effective at higher cardiovascular risks and higher LDL-C levels. Stopping statin early reduced benefits and was not cost-effective. Interpretation: Lifetime low-cost statin therapy is cost-effective across all 40-70 years old in UK. Strengthening and widening statin treatment could cost-effectively improve population health. Funding: UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme (17/140/02).

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Association between health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tier for cardiovascular diseases in China: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers. Methods: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009-2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics. Findings: About 64-68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27-29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas. Interpretation: Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Estimating Costs Associated with Disease Model States Using Generalized Linear Models: A Tutorial.

Estimates of costs associated with disease states are required to inform decision analytic disease models to evaluate interventions that modify disease trajectory. Increasingly, decision analytic models are developed using patient-level data with a focus on heterogeneity between patients, and there is a demand for costs informing such models to reflect individual patient costs. Statistical models of health care costs need to recognize the specific features of costs data which typically include a large number of zero observations for non-users, and a skewed and heavy right-hand tailed distribution due to a small number of heavy healthcare users. Different methods are available for modelling costs, such as generalized linear models (GLMs), extended estimating equations and latent class approaches. While there are tutorials addressing approaches to decision modelling, there is no practical guidance on the cost estimation to inform such models. Therefore, this tutorial aims to provide a general guidance on estimating healthcare costs associated with disease states in decision analytic models. Specifically, we present a step-by-step guide to how individual participant data can be used to estimate costs over discrete periods for participants with particular characteristics, based on the GLM framework. We focus on the practical aspects of cost modelling from the conceptualization of the research question to the derivation of costs for an individual in particular disease states. We provide a practical example with step-by-step R code illustrating the process of modelling the hospital costs associated with disease states for a cardiovascular disease model.

Strong and graded associations between level of asthma severity and all-cause hospital care use and costs in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Hospital admissions account for a large share of the healthcare costs incurred by people with asthma. We assessed the hospital care use and costs associated with asthma severity using the UK Biobank cohort and linked healthcare data. METHODS: Adult participants with asthma at recruitment were classified using their prescription data into mild and moderate-to-severe asthma and matched separately to asthma-free controls by age, sex, ethnicity and location. The associations of asthma, by severity, with the annual number of all-cause hospital admissions, days spent in hospital and hospital costs were estimated over a 10-year follow-up period using three specifications of negative binomial regression models that differed according to the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics adjusted for. RESULTS: Of the 25 031 participants with active asthma, 80% had mild asthma and 20% had moderate-to-severe asthma. Compared with participants with mild asthma, those with moderate-to-severe asthma were on average 2.7 years older, more likely to be current (13.7% vs 10.4%) or previous (40.2% vs 35.2%) smokers, to have a higher body mass index (BMI), and to be suffering from a variety of comorbid diseases. Following adjustments for age, sex, ethnicity and location, people with mild asthma experienced on average 36% more admissions (95% CI 28% to 40%), 43% more days in hospital (95% CI 35% to 51%) and 36% higher hospital costs (95% CI 31% to 41%) annually than asthma-free individuals, while people with moderate-to-severe asthma experienced excesses of 93% (95% CI 81% to 107%), 142% (95% CI 124% to 162%) and 98% (95% CI 88% to 108%), respectively. Further adjustments for socioeconomic deprivation, smoking status, BMI and comorbidities resulted in smaller though still highly significant positive associations, graded by severity, between asthma and hospital use and costs. CONCLUSIONS: Strong graded associations are reported between asthma severity and the extent of hospital use and costs in the UK. These findings could inform future assessments of the value of asthma management interventions.

Investigating the impact of London's ultra low emission zone on children's health: children's health in London and Luton (CHILL) protocol for a prospective parallel cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution harms health across the life course. Children are at particular risk of adverse effects during development, which may impact on health in later life. Interventions that improve air quality are urgently needed both to improve public health now, and prevent longer-term increased vulnerability to chronic disease. Low Emission Zones are a public health policy intervention aimed at reducing traffic-derived contributions to urban air pollution, but evidence that they deliver health benefits is lacking. We describe a natural experiment study (CHILL: Children's Health in London and Luton) to evaluate the impacts of the introduction of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on children's health. METHODS: CHILL is a prospective two-arm parallel longitudinal cohort study recruiting children at age 6-9 years from primary schools in Central London (the focus of the first phase of the ULEZ) and Luton (a comparator site), with the primary outcome being the impact of changes in annual air pollutant exposures (nitrogen oxides [NOx], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5micrograms [PM2.5], and less than 10 micrograms [PM10]) across the two sites on lung function growth, measured as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) over five years. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, cognitive development, mental health, quality of life, health inequalities, and a range of respiratory and health economic data. DISCUSSION: CHILL's prospective parallel cohort design will enable robust conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of the ULEZ at improving air quality and delivering improvements in children's respiratory health. With increasing proportions of the world's population now living in large urban areas exceeding World Health Organisation air pollution limit guidelines, our study findings will have important implications for the design and implementation of Low Emission and Clean Air Zones in the UK, and worldwide. CLINICALTRIALS: GOV: NCT04695093 (05/01/2021).

Impact of New Cardiovascular Events on Quality of Life and Hospital Costs in People With Cardiovascular Disease in the United Kingdom and United States.

BACKGROUND: Despite optimized risk factor control, people with prior cardiovascular disease remain at high cardiovascular disease risk. We assess the immediate- and longer-term impacts of new vascular and nonvascular events on quality of life (QoL) and hospital costs among participants in the REVEAL (Randomized Evaluation of the Effects of Anacetrapib Through Lipid Modification) trial in secondary prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on demographic and clinical characteristics, health-related quality of life (QoL: EuroQoL 5-Dimension-5-Level), adverse events, and hospital admissions during the 4-year follow-up of the 21 820 participants recruited in Europe and North America informed assessments of the impacts of new adverse events on QoL and hospital costs from the UK and US health systems' perspectives using generalized linear regression models. Reductions in QoL were estimated in the years of event occurrence for nonhemorrhagic stroke (-0.067 [United Kingdom], -0.069 [US]), heart failure admission (-0.072 [United Kingdom], -0.103 [US]), incident cancer (-0.064 [United Kingdom], -0.068 [US]), and noncoronary revascularization (-0.071 [United Kingdom], -0.061 [US]), as well as in subsequent years following these events. Myocardial infarction and coronary revascularization (CRV) procedures were not found to affect QoL. All adverse events were associated with additional hospital costs in the years of events and in subsequent years, with the highest additional costs in the years of noncoronary revascularization (£5830 [United Kingdom], $14 133 [US Medicare]), of myocardial infarction with urgent CRV procedure (£5614, $24722), and of urgent/nonurgent CRV procedure without myocardial infarction (£4674/£4651 and $15 251/$17 539). CONCLUSIONS: Stroke, heart failure, and noncoronary revascularization procedures substantially reduce QoL, and all cardiovascular disease events increase hospital costs. These estimates are useful in informing cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in secondary prevention. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01252953; https://www.Isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN48678192; https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu. Unique identifier: 2010-023467-18.

Effectiveness of group arts therapies (art therapy, dance movement therapy and music therapy) compared to group counselling for diagnostically heterogeneous psychiatric community patients: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial in mental health services (the ERA study).

BACKGROUND: Arts therapies are widely but inconsistently provided in community mental health. Whilst they are appealing to patients, evidence for their effectiveness is mixed. Trials to date have been limited to one art-form or diagnosis. Patients may hold strong preferences for or against an art-form whilst group therapies rely on heterogeneity to provide a range of learning experiences. This study will test whether manualised group arts therapies (art therapy, dance movement therapy and music therapy) are effective in reducing psychological distress for diagnostically heterogeneous patients in community mental health compared to active group counselling control. METHODS: A pragmatic multi-centre 2-arm randomised controlled superiority trial with health economic evaluation and nested process evaluation. Adults aged ≥ 18, living in the community with a primary diagnosis of psychosis, mood, or anxiety disorder will be invited to participate and provide written informed consent. Participants are eligible if they score ≥ 1.65 on the Global Severity Index of the Brief Symptom Inventory. Those eligible will view videos of arts therapies and be asked for their preference. Participants are randomised to either their preferred type of group arts therapy or counselling. Groups will run twice per week in a community venue for 20 weeks. Our primary outcome is symptom distress at the end of intervention. Secondary outcomes include observer-rated symptoms, social situation and quality of life. Data will be collected at baseline, post-intervention and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Outcome assessors and trial statisticians will be blinded. Analysis will be intention-to-treat. Economic evaluation will assess the cost-effectiveness of group arts therapies. A nested process evaluation will consist of treatment fidelity analysis, exploratory analysis of group process measures and qualitative interviews with participants and therapists. DISCUSSION: This will be the first trial to account for patient preferences and diagnostic heterogeneity in group arts therapies. As with all group therapies, there are a number of logistical challenges to which we have had to further adapt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the study will provide evidence as to whether there is an additive benefit or not to the use of the arts in group therapy in community mental health care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN88805048 . Registered on 12 September 2018.

Fluid Optimisation in Emergency Laparotomy (FLO-ELA) Trial: study protocol for a multi-centre randomised trial of cardiac output-guided fluid therapy compared to usual care in patients undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery are a major burden on healthcare systems. Optimal management of perioperative intravenous fluids may reduce mortality rates and improve outcomes from surgery. Previous small trials of cardiac-output guided haemodynamic therapy algorithms in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery have suggested this intervention results in reduced complications and a modest reduction in mortality. However, this existing evidence is based mainly on elective (planned) surgery, with little evaluation in the emergency setting. There are fundamental clinical and pathophysiological differences between the planned and emergency surgical setting which may influence the effects of this intervention. A large definitive trial in emergency surgery is needed to confirm or refute the potential benefits observed in elective surgery and to inform widespread clinical practice. METHODS: The FLO-ELA trial is a multi-centre, parallel-group, open, randomised controlled trial. 3138 patients aged 50 and over undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio using minimisation to minimally invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide protocolised administration of intra-venous fluid, or usual care without cardiac output monitoring. The trial intervention will be carried out during surgery and for up to 6 h postoperatively. The trial is funded through an efficient design call by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA) programme and uses existing routinely collected datasets for the majority of data collection. The primary outcome is the number of days alive and out of hospital within 90 days of randomisation. Participants and those delivering the intervention will not be blinded to treatment allocation. Participant recruitment started in September 2017 with a 1-year internal pilot phase and is ongoing at the time of publication. DISCUSSION: This will be the largest contemporary randomised trial examining the effectiveness of perioperative cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy in patients undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The multi-centre design and broad inclusion criteria support the external validity of the trial. Although the clinical teams delivering the trial interventions will not be blinded, significant trial outcome measures are objective and not subject to detection bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 14729158. Registered on 02 May 2017.

Prediction Models for Individual-Level Healthcare Costs Associated with Cardiovascular Events in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs. METHODS: In the UK Biobank, people 40-70 years old, recruited in 2006-2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported. RESULTS: For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models.

Development and test-retest reliability of a new, self-report questionnaire assessing healthcare use and personal costs in people with inflammatory bowel disease: the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Resource Use Questionnaire (IBD-RUQ).

Background and aims: The increasing prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) poses a substantial economic burden globally on health systems and societies. Validated instruments to collect data on healthcare and other service utilisation by patients with IBD are lacking. We developed a self-report patient questionnaire to capture key resource utilisation from health services, patient and societal perspectives. Methods: The IBD Resource Use Questionnaire (IBD-RUQ), developed by a multidisciplinary team, including patients, comprises 102 items across the six categories of outpatient visits, diagnostics, medication, hospitalisations, employment and out-of-pocket expenses over the past three months. The test-retest reliability of the IBD-RUQ was studied by administering it twice among patients with IBD with a 2-week time gap. The intraclass correlation coefficients and the average cost from the healthcare, societal and patient perspectives, between test and retest assessments, overall and by service category, were summarised. Results: The IBD-RUQ captures health service use, employment and out-of-pocket expenses. Of 55 patients who completed the first questionnaire, 48 completed the retest questionnaires and were included in the analyses. Test-retest reliability for categories of medications, diagnostics, specialist outpatient and inpatient services, and days off work due to IBD ranged from moderate to excellent; primary care visits showed more limited reliability. The annualised average self-reported health service, out-of-pocket and loss of productivity costs were £4844, £320 and £545 per patient, respectively. Conclusions: The IBD-RUQ is a reliable and valid self-report measure of resource utilisation in adults with IBD and can be used to measure costs associated with IBD.

Hospital costs associated with adverse events in people with diabetes in the UK.

AIM: To estimate the annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events for people with diabetes in the UK. METHODS: Annual hospital costs (2019/2020) were derived from 15 436 ASCEND participants from 2005 to 2017 (120 420 person-years). The annual hospital costs associated with cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), lower limb amputation and death (vascular, non-vascular) were estimated using a generalized linear model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: In the year of event, ESRD was associated with the largest increase in annual hospital cost (£20 954), followed by lower limb amputation (£17 887), intracranial haemorrhage (£12 080), GI tract cancer (£10 160), coronary revascularization (£8531 if urgent; £8302 if non-urgent), heart failure (£8319), non-GI tract cancer (£7409), ischaemic stroke (£7170), GI bleed (£5557), myocardial infarction (£4913), other major bleed (£3825) and TIA (£1523). In subsequent years, most adverse events were associated with lasting but smaller increases in hospital costs, except for ESRD, where the additional cost remained high (£20 090). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides robust estimates of annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events in people with diabetes that can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of diabetes interventions. It also highlights the potential cost savings that could be derived from prevention of these costly complications.

Content of Health Economics Analysis Plans (HEAPs) for Trial-Based Economic Evaluations: Expert Delphi Consensus Survey.

OBJECTIVES: Health economics analysis plans (HEAPs) currently lack consistency, with uncertainty surrounding appropriate content. We aimed to develop a list of essential items that should be included in HEAPs for economic evaluations conducted alongside randomized trials. METHODS: A list of potential items for inclusion was developed by examining existing HEAPs. An electronic Delphi survey was conducted among professional health economists. Respondents were asked to rate potential items from 1 (least important) to 9 (most important), suggest additional items, and comment on proposed items (round 1). A second survey (round 2) was emailed to participants, including the participant's own scores from round 1 along with summary results from the whole panel; participants were asked to rerate each item. Consensus criteria for inclusion in the final list were predefined as >70% of participants rating an item 7-9 and <15% rating it 1-3 after round 2. A final item selection meeting was held to scrutinize the results and adjudicate on items lacking consensus. RESULTS: 62 participants completed round 1 of the survey. The initial list included 72 potential items; all 72 were carried forward to round 2, and no new items were added. 48 round 1 respondents (77.4%) completed round 2 and reached consensus on 53 items. At the final meeting, the expert panel (n = 9) agreed that 58 items should be included in the essential list, moved 9 items to an optional list, and dropped 5 items. CONCLUSIONS: Via expert consensus opinion, this study identified 58 items that are considered essential in a HEAP.

Impact of the 2003 to 2018 Population Salt Intake Reduction Program in England: A Modeling Study.

[Figure: see text].

Gaps in antihypertensive and statin treatments and benefits of optimisation: a modelling study in a 1 million ethnically diverse urban population in UK.

OBJECTIVES: To characterise gaps in antihypertensive treatment in people with hypertension and statin treatment in people with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in a large urban population and quantify the health and economic impacts of their optimisation. DESIGN: A cross-sectional population study and a long-term CVD decision model. SETTING: Primary care, UK. PARTICIPANTS: All adults with diagnosed hypertension or CVD in a population of about 1 million people, served by 123 primary care practices in London, UK in 2019. INTERVENTIONS: Following UK clinical guidelines, all adults with diagnosed hypertension were categorised into optimal, suboptimal and untreated groups with respect to their antihypertensive treatment, and all adults with diagnosed CVD were categorised in the same manner with respect to their statin treatment. OUTCOMES: Proportion of patients suboptimally treated or untreated. Projected cardiovascular events avoided, years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and healthcare costs saved with optimised treatments. RESULTS: 21 954 of the 91 828 adults with hypertension (24%; mean age 59 years; 49% women) and 9062 of the 23 723 adults with CVD (38%; mean age 69 years; 43% women) were not optimally treated with antihypertensive or statin treatment, respectively. Per 1000 additional patients optimised over 5 years, hypertension treatment is projected to prevent 25 (95% CI 16 to 32) major vascular events (MVEs) and 7 (3 to 10) vascular deaths, statin treatment, 28 (22 to 33) MVEs and 6 (4 to 7) vascular deaths. Over their lifespan, a patient with uncontrolled hypertension aged 60-69 years is projected to gain 0.64 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.87) QALYs with optimised hypertension treatment, and a similarly aged patient with previous CVD not optimally treated with statin is projected to gain 0.3 (0.24 to 0.37) QALYs with optimised statin treatment. In both cases, the hospital cost savings minus extra medication costs were about £1100 per person over remaining lifespan. CONCLUSIONS: Optimising cardiovascular treatments can cost-effectively reduce cardiovascular risk and improve life expectancy.

Long-term health outcomes of people with reduced kidney function in the UK: A modelling study using population health data.

BACKGROUND: People with reduced kidney function have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We present a policy model that simulates individuals' long-term health outcomes and costs to inform strategies to reduce risks of kidney and CVDs in this population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a United Kingdom primary healthcare database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked with secondary healthcare and mortality data, to derive an open 2005-2013 cohort of adults (≥18 years of age) with reduced kidney function (≥2 measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart). Data on individuals' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at entry and outcomes (first occurrences of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and hospitalisation for heart failure; annual kidney disease stages; and cardiovascular and nonvascular deaths) during follow-up were extracted. The cohort was used to estimate risk equations for outcomes and develop a chronic kidney disease-cardiovascular disease (CKD-CVD) health outcomes model, a Markov state transition model simulating individuals' long-term outcomes, healthcare costs, and quality of life based on their characteristics at entry. Model-simulated cumulative risks of outcomes were compared with respective observed risks using a split-sample approach. To illustrate model value, we assess the benefits of partial (i.e., at 2013 levels) and optimal (i.e., fully compliant with clinical guidelines in 2019) use of cardioprotective medications. The cohort included 1.1 million individuals with reduced kidney function (median follow-up 4.9 years, 45% men, 19% with CVD, and 74% with only mildly decreased eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 at entry). Age, kidney function status, and CVD events were the key determinants of subsequent morbidity and mortality. The model-simulated cumulative disease risks corresponded well to observed risks in participant categories by eGFR level. Without the use of cardioprotective medications, for 60- to 69-year-old individuals with mildly decreased eGFR (60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2), the model projected a further 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8-22.3) years of life if without previous CVD and 18.6 (18.2-18.9) years if with CVD. Cardioprotective medication use at 2013 levels (29%-44% of indicated individuals without CVD; 64%-76% of those with CVD) was projected to increase their life expectancy by 0.19 (0.14-0.23) and 0.90 (0.50-1.21) years, respectively. At optimal cardioprotective medication use, the projected health gains in these individuals increased by further 0.33 (0.25-0.40) and 0.37 (0.20-0.50) years, respectively. Limitations include risk factor measurements from the UK routine primary care database and limited albuminuria measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD-CVD policy model is a novel resource for projecting long-term health outcomes and assessing treatment strategies in people with reduced kidney function. The model indicates clear survival benefits with cardioprotective treatments in this population and scope for further benefits if use of these treatments is optimised.

BMI and Cause-Specific Hospital Admissions and Costs: The UK Biobank Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of BMI on cause-specific hospital admissions and costs in men and women is not well understood, and this study's aim is to address this. METHODS: For 451,320 men and women aged 40 years or older recruited into the UK Biobank, followed up for 6 years on average, this study estimated annual rates and costs (at 2016 UK prices) of hospital admissions, overall and by diagnostic category (using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision chapters), in relation to BMI. RESULTS: Among those who were never smokers, a 2-kg/m2 higher BMI (above 20 kg/m2 ) was associated with a 6.2% (99% CI: 5.3% to 7.2%) higher admission rate and an 8.6% (99% CI: 7.3% to 10.0%) higher annual cost in men and with a 5.7% (99% CI: 4.9% to 6.6%) higher admission rate and an 8.4% (99% CI: 7.5% to 9.3%) higher annual cost in women. Higher BMI was associated with higher admission rates and costs for many types of health conditions, particularly for endocrine, skin, and musculoskeletal disorders in both men and women and for circulatory diseases in men. CONCLUSIONS: BMI beyond healthy weight is strongly associated with higher annual rates of hospital admission and higher costs in both men and women across a wide range of health conditions.

Socioeconomic differences in health-care use and outcomes for stroke and ischaemic heart disease in China during 2009-16: a prospective cohort study of 0·5 million adults.

BACKGROUND: China initiated major health-care reforms in 2009 aiming to provide universal health care for all by 2020. However, little is known about trends in health-care use and health outcomes across different socioeconomic groups in the past decade. METHODS: We used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide prospective cohort study of adults aged 30-79 years in 2004-08, in ten regions (five urban, five rural) in China. Individuals who were alive in 2009 were included in the present study. Data for all admissions were obtained by linkage to electronic hospital records from the health insurance system, and to region-specific disease and death registers. Generalised linear models were used to estimate trends in annual hospital admission rates, 28-day case fatality rates, and mean length of stay for stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and any cause in all relevant individuals. FINDINGS: 512 715 participants were recruited to the CKB between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 505 995 of whom were still alive on Jan 1, 2009, and contributed to the present study. Among them, we recorded 794 824 hospital admissions (74 313 for stroke, 69 446 for ischaemic heart disease) between 2009 and 2016. After adjustment for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and morbidity factors, hospitalisation rates increased annually by 3·6% for stroke, 5·4% for ischaemic heart disease, and 4·2% for any cause, between 2009 and 2016. Higher socioeconomic groups had higher hospitalisation rates, but the annual proportional increases were higher in those with lower education or income levels, those enrolled in the urban or rural resident health insurance scheme, and for those in rural areas. Lower socioeconomic groups had higher case fatality rates for stroke and ischaemic heart disease, but greater reductions in case fatality rates than higher socioeconomic groups. By contrast, mean length of stay decreased by around 2% annually for stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and any cause, but decreased to a greater extent in higher than lower socioeconomic groups for stroke and ischaemic heart disease. INTERPRETATION: Between 2009 and 2016, lower socioeconomic groups in China had greater increases in hospital admission rates and greater reductions in case fatality rates for stroke and ischaemic heart disease. Additional strategies are needed to further reduce socioeconomic differences in health-care use and disease outcomes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Impact of achieving primary care targets in type 2 diabetes on health outcomes and healthcare costs.

AIMS: In England and Wales, the National Diabetes Audit (NDA) assesses the quality of management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in primary care using treatment targets for HbA1c ≤58 mmol/mol, total cholesterol <5 mmol/L and blood pressure ≤140/80 mm Hg. We quantified the impact of variation in achieving these targets on health outcomes and healthcare costs across general practitioners' (GP) practices. METHODS: Summary of characteristics of T2D patients from the 2015-2016 NDA were used to generate representative populations of T2D patients. The UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 was used to estimate long-term health outcomes and healthcare costs. The effects of achieving treatment targets on these outcomes were evaluated using regression models. RESULTS: Achieving more of the HbA1c, cholesterol and blood pressure targets led to a lower incidence of diabetes-related complications. Approximately 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4-0.6) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 0.6 (95% CI, 0.4-0.7) years of life (LYs) were gained by T2D patients over a lifetime for each additional target met. The projected healthcare cost savings arising from fewer diabetes-related complications as the result of achieving one, two or three targets compared to none were £859 (95% CI, £553-£1165), £940 (95% CI, £485-£1395) and £1037 (95% CI, £414-£1660) over a patient's lifetime. A typical GP practice in the lowest performing decile (average, 371 T2D patients per practice, with 27% achieving all targets) is projected to gain 201 (95% CI, 123-279) QALYs and 231 (95% CI, 133-329) LYs, if all T2D patients achieved all three targets. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial gains in health outcomes and reductions in healthcare costs could be achieved with further improvements in attainment of HbA1c, cholesterol and blood pressure targets for T2D patients.

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease.

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.