Validation of FIB-6 score in assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: We recently developed a simple novel index called fibrosis 6 (FIB-6) using machine learning data analysis. We aimed to evaluate its performance in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: A retrospective observational analysis of data was obtained from seven countries (Egypt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Turkey, Greece, Oman, Qatar, and Jordan) of CHB patients. The inclusion criteria were receiving an adequate liver biopsy and a complete biochemical and hematological data. The diagnostic performance analysis of the FIB-6 index was conducted and compared with other non-invasive scores. RESULTS: A total of 603 patients were included for the analysis; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FIB-6 for the discrimination of patients with cirrhosis (F4), compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) (F3 and F4), and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.854, 0.812, and 0.745, respectively. The analysis using the optimal cut-offs of FIB-6 showed a sensitivity of 70.9%, specificity of 84.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 40.3%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 95.0% for the diagnosis of cirrhosis. For the diagnosis of cACLD, the results were 71.5%, 69.3%, 40.8%, and 89.2%, respectively, while for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, the results were 68.3%, 67.5%, 59.9%, and 75.0%, respectively. When compared to those of fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and AST-to-alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), the AUROC for the performance of FIB-6 was higher than that of FIB-4, APRI, and AAR in all fibrosis stages. FIB-6 gave the highest sensitivity and NPV (89.1% and 92.4%) in ruling out cACLD and cirrhosis, as compared to FIB-4 (63.8% and 83.0%), APRI (53.9% and 86.6%), and AAR (47.5% and 82.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The FIB-6 index could be used in ruling out cACLD, fibrosis, and cirrhosis with good reliability.

Reduced incidence of hepatitis C in 9 villages in rural Egypt: Progress towards national elimination goals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt has a major HCV burden and a well established treatment programme, with an ambitious goal of HCV elimination. Our aim was to assess the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme on the incidence of new HCV infections in 9 villages in rural Egypt. METHODS: An HCV "educate, test and treat" project was implemented in 73 villages across 7 governorates in Egypt between 06/2015 and 06/2018. In 2018, in 9 of the villages we re-tested individuals who originally tested HCV antibody (HCV-Ab) and HBsAg negative using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs); confirmatory HCV RNA testing was performed for positive cases. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years (py) was calculated, and risk factors for incident HCV infections assessed through an interviewer-administered questionnaire in 1:3 age- and gender-matched cases and controls. RESULTS: Out of 20,490 individuals who originally tested HCV-Ab negative in the 9 villages during the 2015-2016 implementation of the "educate, test and treat" programme, 19,816 (96.7%) were re-tested in 2018. Over a median of 2.4 years (IQR 2.1-2.7), there were 19 new HCV infections all of which were HCV RNA positive (incidence rate 0.37/1,000 py) (95% CI 0.24-0.59). Compared to a previous estimate of incidence in the Nile Delta region (2.4/1,000 py) from 2006, there was a substantial reduction in overall incidence of new HCV infections. Exposures through surgery (odds ratio 51; 95% CI 3.5-740.1) and dental procedures (odds ratio 23.8; 95% CI 2.9-194.9) were significant independent predictors of incident infections. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show a substantial reduction in incidence of new HCV infections in a sample of the general population in Egypt following attainment of high testing and treatment coverage. New infections were significantly associated with healthcare-associated exposures. LAY SUMMARY: Egypt has a major national HCV testing and treatment programme with the goal of eliminating HCV infection. We assessed the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme in 73 villages that achieved high coverage of testing and treatment on the subsequent incidence of new HCV infections in nine of the villages. We re-tested people who were previously HCV antibody negative and found that the rate of new HCV infections was greatly reduced compared to previous estimates. We also found that exposure through surgery and dental procedures were associated with these new infections. This highlights the importance of continued strengthening of infection control and prevention measures, alongside treatment scale-up.