RESUMO
As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.
RESUMO
Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.