LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. METHODS: The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). FINDINGS: Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).

Socioeconomic characteristics and domestic work as correlates of family satisfaction in Hong Kong mothers of young children.

BACKGROUND: Family life satisfaction is an important contributor to the mental health of mothers with young children, who are particularly vulnerable to various sources of stressors. However, there is a dearth of studies on this topic in this demographic, the determinants of which likely differ across geographical and cultural contexts. We examined indicators of maternal socioeconomic status (SES) and domestic help as correlates of family satisfaction in Hong Kong mothers of young children. METHODS: Mothers (N = 322) of young children (3-5 years old) were recruited from neighbourhoods stratified by SES and population density. They self-completed a survey containing items on socio-demographics, SES characteristics (including household income and maternal education and employment status), maternal family satisfaction and division of domestic work in the household and family. Confounder-adjusted associations of maternal SES indicators and participation in housework and childcare activities by various agents (e.g., mother, spouse, other residents) were estimated. We also estimated the moderating effects of household income on the associations between maternal employment and family satisfaction, and those of maternal employment on the associations between domestic work division and family satisfaction. RESULTS: Household income and maternal education were positively related to maternal family satisfaction. Mothers in part-time employment had lower family satisfaction than non-working mothers and mothers working full-time. The latter reported higher family satisfaction than non-working mothers only if their household income was below HK$ 15,000. Domestic work performed by non-residents was predictive of higher family satisfaction, while mothers' housework and child(ren) tutoring were predictive of lower family satisfaction. Only part-time employed mothers benefited from spouse's assistance with domestic work. The interaction effects of maternal employment status on the associations between the division of child tutoring and family satisfaction were complex. CONCLUSIONS: In Hong Kong, mothers of young children with lower education and household income, who hold a part-time job and participate in housework and child tutoring activities have the lowest levels of family satisfaction and, hence, are at higher risk of mental health problems. Spouses' and non-resident family members' participation in domestic work, as well as the establishment of more family-friendly employment practices, may help mitigate this risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

Corrigendum to "Inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China: results from the National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 2023; 31:100623].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100623.].

Need assessment for history-taking instruction program using chatbot for nursing students: A qualitative study using focus group interviews.

Purpose: A comprehensive health history contributes to identifying the most appropriate interventions and care priorities. However, history-taking is challenging to learn and develop for most nursing students. Chatbot was suggested by students to be used in history-taking training. Still, there is a lack of clarity regarding the needs of nursing students in these programs. This study aimed to explore nursing students' needs and essential components of chatbot-based history-taking instruction program. Methods: This was a qualitative study. Four focus groups, with a total of 22 nursing students, were recruited. Colaizzi's phenomenological methodology was used to analyze the qualitative data generated from the focus group discussions. Results: Three main themes and 12 subthemes emerged. The main themes included limitations of clinical practice for history-taking, perceptions of chatbot used in history-taking instruction programs, and the need for history-taking instruction programs using chatbot. Students had limitations in clinical practice for history-taking. When developing chatbot-based history-taking instruction programs, the development should reflect students' needs, including feedback from the chatbot system, diverse clinical situations, chances to practice nontechnical skills, a form of chatbot (i.e., humanoid robots or cyborgs), the role of teachers (i.e., sharing experience and providing advice) and training before the clinical practice. Conclusion: Nursing students had limitations in clinical practice for history-taking and high expectations for chatbot-based history-taking instruction programs.

A real-world data validation of the value of early-stage SIR modelling to public health.

Performance of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in the early stage of a novel epidemic may be hindered by data availability. Additionally, the traditional SIR model may oversimplify the disease progress, and knowledge about the virus and transmission is limited early in the epidemic, resulting in a greater uncertainty of such modelling. We aimed to investigate the impact of model inputs on the early-stage SIR projection using COVID-19 as an illustration to evaluate the application of early infection models. We constructed a modified SIR model using discrete-time Markov chain to simulate daily epidemic dynamics and estimate the number of beds needed in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic. We compared eight scenarios of SIR projection to the real-world data (RWD) and used root mean square error (RMSE) to assess model performance. According to the National Health Commission, the number of beds occupied in isolation wards and ICUs due to COVID-19 in Wuhan peaked at 37,746. In our model, as the epidemic developed, we observed an increasing daily new case rate, and decreasing daily removal rate and ICU rate. This change in rates contributed to the growth in the needs of bed in both isolation wards and ICUs. Assuming a 50% diagnosis rate and 70% public health efficacy, the model based on parameters estimated using data from the day reaching 3200 to the day reaching 6400 cases returned a lowest RMSE. This model predicted 22,613 beds needed in isolation ward and ICU as on the day of RWD peak. Very early SIR model predictions based on early cumulative case data initially underestimated the number of beds needed, but the RMSEs tended to decline as more updated data were used. Very-early-stage SIR model, although simple but convenient and relatively accurate, is a useful tool to provide decisive information for the public health system and predict the trend of an epidemic of novel infectious disease in the very early stage, thus, avoiding the issue of delay-decision and extra deaths.

Inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China: results from the National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases.

Background: Economic data on congenital heart disease (CHD) in China are scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery and related healthcare policies from a hospital perspective. Method: We used data from the Chinese Database for Congenital Heart Surgery (CDCHS) to prospectively analyse the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery from May 2018 to December 2020. The total expenditure was divided into 11 columns (medications, imaging, consumable items, surgery, medical cares, laboratory tests, therapy, examinations, medical services, accommodations, and others), and explored according to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) category, year, different age group, and CHD complexity. Authority economic data (index for gross domestic product [GDP], GDP per capita, per capita disposable income and average annual exchange rate of 2020 Chinese Yuan against US dollar) were accessed via the National Bureau of Statistics of China to better describe the burden. In addition, potential factors contributing to the costs were also investigated by using generalised linear model. Findings: All values are presented in 2020 Chinese Yuan (¥). A total of 6568 hospitalisations were enrolled. The median of overall total expenditure was ¥64,900 (≈9409 US Dollar [USD], interquartile range [IQR]: ¥35,819), with the lowest in STAT 1 (¥57,014 ≈ 8266 USD, [IQR]: ¥16,774) and the highest in STAT 5 (¥194,862 ≈ 28,251 USD, [IQR]: ¥130,010). The median costs during the 2018 to 2020 period were ¥62,014 (≈8991 USD, [IQR]: ¥32,628), ¥64,846 (≈9401 USD, [IQR]: ¥34,469) and ¥67,867 (≈9839 USD, [IQR]: ¥41,496). Regarding to age, the median costs were highest in the ≤1 month group (¥144,380 ≈ 20,932 USD, [IQR]: ¥92,584). Age, STAT category, emergency, genetic syndrome, delay sternal closure, mechanical ventilation time, and complications were significantly contributed to the inpatient costs. Interpretation: For the first time, the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China are delineated in detail. According to the results, CHD treatment has achieved significant progress in China, but it still causes substantial economic burden to both families and society. In addition, ascending trend of the inpatient costs was observed during the period of 2018-2020, and the neonatal was revealed to be the most challenging group. Funding: This study was supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS,2020-I2M-C&T-A-009), Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund (2022-1-4032), and The City University of Hong Kong New Research Initiatives/Infrastructure Support from Central (APRC, 9610589).

Megastudies: A New Approach to Reducing Vaccine Hesitation Worldwide.

Vaccine hesitancy is a considerable obstacle to achieving vaccine protection worldwide. There needs to be more evidence-based research for interventions for vaccine hesitancy. Existing effectiveness evaluations are limited to one particular hypothesis, and no studies have compared the effectiveness of different interventions. A megastudy takes a large-scale, multi-intervention, uniform participant and the same evaluation criteria approach to evaluate many interventions simultaneously and find the most effective ones. Therefore, megastudies can help us find the most effective interventions for vaccine hesitancy. Additionally, considering the complex causes of vaccine hesitancy, we design interventions that involve social factors in megastudies. Lastly, quality control and justice are critical issues for megastudies in the future.

All HER2-negative breast cancer patients need gBRCA testing: cost-effectiveness and clinical benefits.

BACKGROUND: The OlympiA trial demonstrated the benefits of adjuvant usage of olaparib for high-risk patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer (BC) and germline BRCA (gBRCA) mutation. This provoked thoughts on the clinical criteria of gBRCA testing. This study aims to estimate the costs and benefits of gBRCA testing and adjuvant olaparib therapy for patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and hormone-receptor (HR)-positive and HER2-negative BC in China and the United States of America (USA). METHODS: We used a Markov chain decision tree analytic model to compare three gBRCA screening policies in China and the USA: (1) no gBRCA testing; (2) selected gBRCA testing and (3) universal gBRCA testing for nonmetastatic TNBC and HR-positive HER2-negative BC patients. We modelled the benefit of systemic therapy and risk-reducing surgeries among patients identified with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1 and BRCA2. RESULTS: Changing from the selected gBRCA testing to the universal gBRCA testing in TNBC patients is cost-effective, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) being 10991.1 and 56518.2 USD/QALY in China and the USA, respectively. Expanding universal gBRCA testing to HR-positive HER2-negative BC and TNBC patients has ICERs of 2023.3 and 16611.1 USD/QALY in China and the USA, respectively. DISCUSSION: By performing gBRCA testing on all HER2-negative BC patients, adjuvant olaparib can be offered to high-risk patients with a PV in BRCA1 or BRCA2. These patients are also candidates for risk-reducing surgeries, an important aspect of their survivorship care, and these interventions can improve survival outcomes. With the willingness-to-pay thresholds being 31,500.0 and 100,000.0 USD per QALY gained in China and the USA, respectively, universal gBRCA testing is likely cost-effective for all HER2-negative BC patients. This simplified criterion of gBRCA testing for BC is recommended for adoption by current guidelines in China and the USA.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of autogenous arteriovenous fistula, arteriovenous graft, and tunneled-cuffed catheter for hemodialysis in patients with end-stage kidney disease in Southern China.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three permanent vascular accesses for maintenance hemodialysis patients from a hospital perspective throughout 5 years, which is the average life expectancy of patients with end-stage kidney disease. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We conducted a EuroQol(EQ-5D) questionnaire survey between January 2021 and March 2021 with 250 patients to estimate the health utility of various states in patients under different hemodialysis vascular access. We designed a Markov model and conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare the cost-effectiveness of three hemodialysis vascular access in Guangzhou throughout 5 years. RESULTS: The mean costs were US$44,481 with tunneled-cuffed catheter (TCC), and US$68,952 and US$59,247 with arteriovenous graft (AVG) and autogenous arteriovenous fistula (AVF), respectively. The mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was 1.41 with TCC, and 2.37 and 2.73 with AVG and AVF, respectively. AVG had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$25,491 per QALY over TCC; AVF had an ICER of -US$26,958 per QALY over AVG. At a willingness to pay below US$10,633.8 per QALY, TCC is likely the most cost-effective vascular access. At any willingness to pay between US$10,633.8 and US$30,901.4 per QALY, AVF is likely the most cost-effective vascular access. CONCLUSION: These findings illustrate the value of AVF given its relative cost-effectiveness to other hemodialysis modalities. Although AVG costs much more than TCC for slightly higher QALYs than TCC, AVG still has a greater advantage over TCC for patients with longer life expectancy due to its lower probability of death.

Lifestyles and health-related quality of life in Chinese people: a national family study.

BACKGROUND: There were few studies that investigated health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of the general population in China, and many of them reported limitations in sampling. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between lifestyles and HRQoL in the Chinese population in both individual and family levels. METHOD: Online questionnaires were distributed across China to collect demographic information and participants' HRQoL using EuroQoL 5 Dimension scales. The EuroQoL Group's 5 Dimension scale (EQ-5D) index and EuroQoL Group's visual analog scale (EQ VAS) score were calculated to evaluate the HRQoL. RESULTS: A total of 1305 valid questionnaires were included. Higher HRQoL was found in people with intend to lower oil intake, intend to lower salt intake, intend to lower sugar intake, balanced diet, moderate sports every week, a sport hobby and joining a fitness organization (all p<.05). HRQoL was higher among male (female as reference), healthy weight (unhealthy weight as reference) (both p<.05). Negative correlation was found between HRQoL and clinical medical history and drinking history. Small families (1-2 persons, 83.19 ± 20.14) had poorer HRQoL (EQ VAS score) than big families (≥3 persons, 85.00 ± 17.96, p <.05). CONCLUSION: In China, people with healthy dietary habits, regular sports habits, healthy weight and male groups tended to have better HRQoL. Clinical medical history and drinking history were negatively related to HRQoL. Small families tend to have poorer HRQoL than big families. The finding implicated influence of the number of family members on people's perception of health and provided scientific evidence for the current policies to encourage birth in China. For a better HRQoL, we suggest people live in big families and take measures to lower salt/sugar/oil intake and exercise regularly in daily life.

Disparities in the unmet mental health needs between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ populations during COVID-19 in the United States from 21 July 2021 to 9 May 2022.

Background: Evidence highlighted the likelihood of unmet mental health needs (UMHNs) among LGBTQ+ than non-LGBTQ+ populations during COVID-19. However, there lacks evidence to accurately answer to what extent the gap was in UMHN between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ populations. We aim to evaluate the difference in UMHN between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ during COVID-19. Methods: Cross-sectional data from Household Pulse Survey between 21 July 2021 and 9 May 2022 were analyzed. LGBTQ+ was defined based on self-reported sex at birth, gender, and sexual orientation identity. UMHN was assessed by a self-reported question. Multivariable logistic regressions generated adjusted odds ratios (AODs) of UMHN, both on overall and subgroups, controlling for a variety of socio-demographic and economic-affordability confounders. Findings: 81267 LGBTQ+ and 722638 non-LGBTQ+ were studied. The difference in UMHN between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ (as reference) varied from 4.9% (95% CI 1.2-8.7%) in Hawaii to 16.0% (95% CI 12.2-19.7%) in Utah. In multivariable models, compared with non-LGBTQ+ populations, LGBTQ+ had a higher likelihood to report UMHN (AOR = 2.27, 95% CI 2.18-2.39), with the highest likelihood identified in transgender (AOR = 3.63, 95% CI 2.97-4.39); compared with LGBTQ+ aged 65+, LGBTQ+ aged 18-25 had a higher likelihood to report UMHN (AOR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.03-1.75); compared with White LGBTQ+ populations, Black and Hispanic LGBTQ+ had a lower likelihood to report UMHN (AOR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82; AOR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.97, respectively). Interpretation: During the COVID-19, LGBTQ+ had a substantial additional risk of UMHN than non-LGBTQ+. Disparities among age groups, subtypes of LGBTQ+, and geographic variance were also identified.

Impact of Hospital Characteristics and Governance Structure on the Adoption of Tracking Technologies for Clinical and Supply Chain Use: Longitudinal Study of US Hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing adoption rate of tracking technologies in hospitals in the United States, few empirical studies have examined the factors involved in such adoption within different use contexts (eg, clinical and supply chain use contexts). To date, no study has systematically examined how governance structures impact technology adoption in different use contexts in hospitals. Given that the hospital governance structure fundamentally governs health care workflows and operations, understanding its critical role provides a solid foundation from which to explore factors involved in the adoption of tracking technologies in hospitals. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare critical factors associated with the adoption of tracking technologies for clinical and supply chain uses and examine how governance structure types affect the adoption of tracking technologies in hospitals. METHODS: This study was conducted based on a comprehensive and longitudinal national census data set comprising 3623 unique hospitals across 50 states in the United States from 2012 to 2015. Using mixed effects population logistic regression models to account for the effects within and between hospitals, we captured and examined the effects of hospital characteristics, locations, and governance structure on adjustments to the innate development of tracking technology over time. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2015, we discovered that the proportion of hospitals in which tracking technologies were fully implemented for clinical use increased from 36.34% (782/2152) to 54.63% (1316/2409), and that for supply chain use increased from 28.58% (615/2152) to 41.3% (995/2409). We also discovered that adoption factors impact the clinical and supply chain use contexts differently. In the clinical use context, compared with hospitals located in urban areas, hospitals in rural areas (odds ratio [OR] 0.68, 95% CI 0.56-0.80) are less likely to fully adopt tracking technologies. In the context of supply chain use, the type of governance structure influences tracking technology adoption. Compared with hospitals not affiliated with a health system, implementation rates increased as hospitals affiliated with a more centralized health system-1.9-fold increase (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.60-2.13) for decentralized or independent hospitals, 2.4-fold increase (OR 2.40, 95% CI 2.07-2.80) for moderately centralized health systems, and 3.1-fold increase for centralized health systems (OR 3.07, 95% CI 2.67-3.53). CONCLUSIONS: As the first of such type of studies, we provided a longitudinal overview of how hospital characteristics and governance structure jointly affect adoption rates of tracking technology in both clinical and supply chain use contexts, which is essential for developing intelligent infrastructure for smart hospital systems. This study informs researchers, health care providers, and policy makers that hospital characteristics, locations, and governance structures have different impacts on the adoption of tracking technologies for clinical and supply chain use and on health resource disparities among hospitals of different sizes, locations, and governance structures.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Health-Based Integrated Care for Atrial Fibrillation: Model Development and Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mobile health (mHealth) technology is increasingly used in disease management. Using mHealth tools to integrate and streamline care has improved clinical outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the potential clinical and health economic outcomes of mHealth-based integrated care for AF from the perspective of a public health care provider in China. METHODS: A Markov model was designed to compare outcomes of mHealth-based care and usual care in a hypothetical cohort of patients with AF in China. The time horizon was 30 years with monthly cycles. Model outcomes measured were direct medical cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the base-case results. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, mHealth-based care gained higher QALYs of 0.0730 with an incurred cost of US $1090. Using US $33,438 per QALY (three times the gross domestic product) as the willingness-to-pay threshold, mHealth-based care was cost-effective, with an ICER of US $14,936 per QALY. In one-way sensitivity analysis, no influential factor with a threshold value was identified. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, mHealth-based care was accepted as cost-effective in 92.33% of 10,000 iterations. CONCLUSIONS: This study assessed the expected cost-effectiveness of applying mHealth-based integrated care for AF according to a model-based health economic evaluation. The exploration suggested the potential cost-effective use of mHealth apps in streamlining and integrating care via the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway for AF in China. Future economic evaluation alongside randomized clinical trials is highly warranted to verify the suggestion and investigate affecting factors such as geographical variations in patient characteristics, identification of subgroups, and constraints on local implementation.

The cost-effectiveness of bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccination in Asia: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to systematically review the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Asia. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of papers indexed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science covering the period from 1 January 2000 to 13 August 2020. RESULTS: Sixteen studies were included in the review. Half of them (8 studies) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in high-income countries and regions (HICs) while the other eight studies were set in low- and middle-income countries and regions (LMICs). In HICs, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination was all shown to be cost-effective. Most studies (7/8) also showed that it was cost-effective to implement bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccines in LMICs. However, one study concluded that it was not cost-effective to implement bivalent HPV vaccination in Thailand. CONCLUSION: In general, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination for adolescent girls was cost-effective in both high-income countries and regions and low- and middle-income countries and regions in Asia. Policy makers in HICs could consider expanding the target vaccinated population, while for LMICs it is essential to reduce HPV vaccine price to a level at which the implementation of HPV vaccination is cost-effective.

EGFR mutation-guided use of afatinib, erlotinib and gefitinib for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer in Hong Kong - A cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) therapy targets at epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene mutations in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to compare the EGFR mutation-guided target therapy versus empirical chemotherapy for first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC in the public healthcare setting of Hong Kong. METHODS: A Markov model was designed to simulate outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of advanced (stage IIIB/IV) NSCLC adult patients with un-tested EGFR-sensitizing mutation status. Four treatment strategies were evaluated: Empirical first-line chemotherapy with cisplatin-pemetrexed (empirical chemotherapy group), and EGFR mutation-guided use of a TKI (afatinib, erlotinib, and gefitinib). Model outcome measures were direct medical cost, progression-free survival, overall survival, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Incremental cost per QALY gained (ICER) was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine robustness of model results. RESULTS: Empirical chemotherapy and EGFR mutation-guided gefitinib gained lower QALYs at higher costs than the erlotinib group. Comparing with EGFR mutation-guided erlotinib, the afatinib strategy gained additional QALYs with ICER (540,633 USD/QALY). In 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, EGFR mutation-guided afatinib, erlotinib, gefitinib and empirical chemotherapy were preferred strategy in 0%, 98%, 0% and 2% of time at willingness-to-pay (WTP) 47,812 USD/QALY (1x gross domestic product (GDP) per capita), and in 30%, 68%, 2% and 0% of time at WTP 143,436 USD/QALY (3x GDP per capita), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EGFR mutation-guided erlotinib appears to be the cost-effective strategy from the perspective of Hong Kong public healthcare provider over a broad range of WTP.

Patients' Preferences for Artificial Intelligence Applications Versus Clinicians in Disease Diagnosis During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in China: Discrete Choice Experiment.

BACKGROUND: Misdiagnosis, arbitrary charges, annoying queues, and clinic waiting times among others are long-standing phenomena in the medical industry across the world. These factors can contribute to patient anxiety about misdiagnosis by clinicians. However, with the increasing growth in use of big data in biomedical and health care communities, the performance of artificial intelligence (Al) techniques of diagnosis is improving and can help avoid medical practice errors, including under the current circumstance of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to visualize and measure patients' heterogeneous preferences from various angles of AI diagnosis versus clinicians in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We also aim to illustrate the different decision-making factors of the latent class of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and prospects for the application of AI techniques in judgment and management during the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 and in the future. METHODS: A DCE approach was the main analysis method applied in this paper. Attributes from different dimensions were hypothesized: diagnostic method, outpatient waiting time, diagnosis time, accuracy, follow-up after diagnosis, and diagnostic expense. After that, a questionnaire is formed. With collected data from the DCE questionnaire, we apply Sawtooth software to construct a generalized multinomial logit (GMNL) model, mixed logit model, and latent class model with the data sets. Moreover, we calculate the variables' coefficients, standard error, P value, and odds ratio (OR) and form a utility report to present the importance and weighted percentage of attributes. RESULTS: A total of 55.8% of the respondents (428 out of 767) opted for AI diagnosis regardless of the description of the clinicians. In the GMNL model, we found that people prefer the 100% accuracy level the most (OR 4.548, 95% CI 4.048-5.110, P<.001). For the latent class model, the most acceptable model consists of 3 latent classes of respondents. The attributes with the most substantial effects and highest percentage weights are the accuracy (39.29% in general) and expense of diagnosis (21.69% in general), especially the preferences for the diagnosis "accuracy" attribute, which is constant across classes. For class 1 and class 3, people prefer the AI + clinicians method (class 1: OR 1.247, 95% CI 1.036-1.463, P<.001; class 3: OR 1.958, 95% CI 1.769-2.167, P<.001). For class 2, people prefer the AI method (OR 1.546, 95% CI 0.883-2.707, P=.37). The OR of levels of attributes increases with the increase of accuracy across all classes. CONCLUSIONS: Latent class analysis was prominent and useful in quantifying preferences for attributes of diagnosis choice. People's preferences for the "accuracy" and "diagnostic expenses" attributes are palpable. AI will have a potential market. However, accuracy and diagnosis expenses need to be taken into consideration.

Eliciting women's preference for prenatal testing in China: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy tests can be used for the early diagnosis of fetal problems and can prevent abnormal birth in pregnancies. Yet, testing preferences among Chinese women are poorly investigated. METHODS: We developed a Discrete Choice Experiment with 5 attributes: test procedure, detection rate, miscarriage rate, time to wait for result, and test cost. By studying the choices that the women make in the hypothetical scenarios and comparing the attributes and levels, we can analyze the women's preference of prenatal testing in China. RESULTS: Ninety-two women completed the study. Respondents considered the test procedure as the most important attribute, followed by detection rate, miscarriage rate, wait time for result, and test cost, respectively. The estimated preference weight for the non-invasive procedure was 0.928 (P < 0.0001). All other attributes being equal, the odds of choosing a non-invasive testing procedure over an invasive one was 2.53 (95% confidence interval, 2.42-2.64; P < 0.001). Participants were willing to pay up to RMB$28,810 (approximately US$4610) for a non-invasive test, RMB$6061(US$970) to reduce the miscarriage rate by 1% and up to RMB$3356 (US$537) to increase the detection rate by 1%. Compared to other DCE (Discrete Choice Experiment) studies regarding Down's syndrome screening, women in our study place relatively less emphasis on test safety. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has shown that Chinese women place more emphasis on detection rate than test safety. Chinese women place great preference on noninvasive prenatal testing, which indicate a popular need of incorporating noninvasive prenatal testing into the health insurance coverage in China. This study provided valuable evidence for the decision makers in the Chinese government.

Half-dose fulvestrant plus anastrozole as a first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The S0226 trial demonstrated that the combination of half-dose fulvestrant (FUL) and anastrozole (ANA) (F&A) caused a significant improvement in overall survival (OS) versus ANA monotherapy for first-line treatment of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer (PMW-MBC (HR+)). The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of F&A in the first-line treatment for PMW-MBC (HR+) in China. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov model over a life-time horizon. The clinical outcomes and utility data were obtained from published literature. Cost data were obtained from official Chinese websites. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test result uncertainty. SETTING: Chinese healthcare system perspective. POPULATION: A hypothetical cohort of adult patients presenting with PMW-MBC (HR+). INTERVENTIONS: F&A compared with full-dose FUL and ANAmonotherapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome of this study was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). RESULTS: ANA was estimated to have the lowest cost and minimum life-years. The ICER of F&A versus ANA was US$15 665.891/QALY with incremental cost and QALY of US$12 401.120 and 0.792, respectively, which was less than the willingness-to-pay of US$29 383/QALY. Compared with F&A, FUL yielded a higher cost and a shorter lifetime; hence, it was identified as a dominated strategy. The univariate sensitivity analysis indicated the price of FUL was the most influential factor in our study. The probability that F&A was cost-effective at a threshold of US$29 383/QALY in China was 86.5%. CONCLUSION: F&A is a cost-effective alternative to FUL and ANA monotherapy for the first-line treatment of PMW-MBC (HR+) in China. F&A is a promising first-line treatment for PMW-MBC (HR+), and more research is needed to evaluate the economy of using F&A in other countries.