Performance of early risk assessment tools to predict the later development of gestational diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are provided in the literature; however, their clinical significance has not been thoroughly evaluated, especially with regard to application at early gestation and in accordance with the most recent diagnostic criteria. This external validation study aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of published risk estimation models for the later development of GDM at early pregnancy. METHODS: In this cohort study, we prospectively included 1132 pregnant women. Risk evaluation was performed before 16 + 0 weeks of gestation including a routine laboratory examination. Study participants were followed-up until delivery to assess GDM status according to the IADPSG 2010 diagnostic criteria. Fifteen clinical prediction models were calculated according to the published literature. RESULTS: Gestational diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in 239 women, that is 21.1% of the study participants. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the ROC curve and ranged between 60.7% and 76.9%, corresponding to an acceptable accuracy. With some exceptions, calibration performance was poor as most models were developed based on older diagnostic criteria with lower prevalence and therefore tended to underestimate the risk of GDM. The highest variable importance scores were observed for history of GDM and routine laboratory parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Most prediction models showed acceptable accuracy in terms of discrimination but lacked in calibration, which was strongly dependent on study settings. Simple biochemical variables such as fasting glucose, HbA1c and triglycerides can improve risk prediction. One model consisting of clinical and laboratory parameters showed satisfactory accuracy and could be used for further investigations.

Novel Indices of Glucose Homeostasis Derived from Principal Component Analysis: Application for Metabolic Assessment in Pregnancy.

AIMS: This study is aimed at assessing the association of previously developed indices of glucose homeostasis derived from principal component analysis (PCA) with parameters of insulin action, secretion, and beta cell function during pregnancy. METHODS: In this prospective longitudinal study, an oral glucose tolerance test was performed in sixty-seven pregnant women at two prepartum (12+0 to 22+6 and 24+0 to 28+6) and one postpartum (2 to 11 months) visits. Three principal component scores (PCS) were calculated based on measurements of glucose, insulin, C-peptide, age, and BMI to assess their association with fasting and dynamic indices of insulin action, secretion, and ß-cell function. RESULTS: PCS1 was positively associated with fasting and dynamic parameters of insulin sensitivity (Matsuda index: r = 0.93, p < 0.001), whereas a strong negative association was observed for early, late, and total insulin response. PCS2 was associated with higher mean glucose but negatively related to parameters of insulin secretion. PCS3 was significantly associated with fasting indices of insulin sensitivity. PCS1 to 3 assessed at early pregnancy were also associated with development of GDM, whereby random forest analysis revealed the highest variable importance for PCS1. PCS1 to 3 were significantly related to the oral disposition index explaining 49.0% of its variance. CONCLUSIONS: PCS1 to 3 behaved similarly as compared to previous observations in nonpregnant women and were furthermore associated with the development of GDM. These findings support our hypothesis that PCS1 to 3 could be used as novel indices of glucose disposal during pregnancy.

The value of indocyanine green clearance assessment to predict postoperative liver dysfunction in patients undergoing liver resection.

Postoperative liver dysfunction remains a major concern following hepatic resection. In order to identify patients who are at risk of developing liver dysfunction, indocyanine green (ICG) clearance has been proposed to predict postoperative liver function. All patients who underwent liver resection at the Medical University Vienna, Austria between 2006 and 2015 with preoperative ICG clearance testing (PDR, R15) were analyzed in this study. Postoperative liver dysfunction was analyzed as defined by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery. Overall, 698 patients (male: 394 (56.4%); female: 304 (43.6%)) with a mean age of 61.3 years (SD: 12.9) were included in this study, including 313 minor liver resections (44.8%) and 385 major liver resections (55.2%). One hundred and seven patients developed postoperative liver dysfunction after liver resection (15.3%). Factors associated with liver dysfunction were: male sex (p = 0.043), major liver resection (p < 0.0001), and preoperative ICG clearance (PDR (p = 0.002) and R15 (p < 0.0001)). Notably ICG clearance was significantly associated with liver dysfunction in minor and major liver resections respectively and remained a predictor upon multivariable analysis. An optimal cut-off for preoperative ICG clearance to accurately predict liver dysfunction was PDR < 19.5%/min and R15 > 5.6%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study analyzing the predictive value of preoperative ICG clearance assessment in patients undergoing liver resection. ICG clearance is useful to identify patients at risk of postoperative liver dysfunction.

Circulating Free Methylated Tumor DNA Markers for Sensitive Assessment of Tumor Burden and Early Response Monitoring in Patients Receiving Systemic Chemotherapy for Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (neoCTx) followed by hepatic resection is the treatment of choice for patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CLM). Treatment response is generally assessed using radiologic imaging after several cycles of chemotherapy. However, earlier assessment of response would be desirable since nonresponders could be switched early to an alternative chemotherapy regimen. Recent evidence suggests that circulating free methylated tumor DNA is a highly sensitive biomarker and may more accurately reflect tumor burden and treatment response than conventional markers for CRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty-four patients with CLM who received neoCTx prior to intended hepatic resection were included in this prospective nonrandomized study. Peripheral blood plasma was collected at baseline and before each cycle of neoCTx and was then analyzed for aberrant methylation of 48 CRC-associated genes. Methylation marker levels were correlated with baseline tumor volume and treatment response and compared with the standard tumor markers CEA and CA 19-9. RESULTS: The methylation markers SEPT9, DCC, BOLL, and SFRP2 were present in all patients at baseline and displayed a stronger correlation with tumor volume than CEA and CA 19-9. Serial measurement of these methylation markers allowed for discrimination between operated and nonoperated patients already after 1 cycle of neoCTx with high sensitivity and specificity. The early dynamic changes of SEPT9 and DCC also seemed to correlate with pathohistological response. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that serial measurements of CRC-associated methylation markers could be a particularly valuable tool for early response assessment in patients receiving neoCTx for CLM.