Evaluation of the utility of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress score for predicting post-operative morbidity after orthopaedic surgery.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system for predicting post-operative morbidity. METHODS: We included 1,883 patients (mean age, 52.1 years) who underwent orthopaedic surgery. The post-operative complications were classified as surgical site and non-surgical site complications, and the relationship between the E-PASS scores and post-operative morbidity was investigated. RESULTS: The incidence of post-operative complications (n = 274) significantly increased with an increase in E-PASS scores (p < 0.001). The areas under the curve for the comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS scoring system for overall and non-surgical site complications were 0.777 and 0.794, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS scoring system showed some utility in predicting post-operative morbidity after general orthopaedic surgery. However, creating a new risk score that is more suitable for orthopaedic surgery will be challenging.

Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery.

OBJECT: The Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems are surgical risk scoring systems that take into account both the patient's preoperative condition and intraoperative variables. While they predict postoperative morbidity and mortality rates for several types of surgery, spinal surgeries are currently not included. The authors assessed the usefulness of E-PASS and POSSUM algorithms and compared the predictive ability of both systems in patients with spinal disorders considered for surgery. METHODS: The E-PASS system includes a preoperative risk score, a surgical stress score, and a comprehensive risk score that is determined by both the preoperative risk score and surgical stress score. The POSSUM system is composed of a physiological score and an operative severity score; its total score is based on both the physiological score and operative severity score. The authors calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for 601 consecutive patients who had undergone spinal surgery and investigated the relationship between the individual scores of both systems and the incidence of postoperative complications. They also assessed the correctness of the predicted morbidity rate of both systems. RESULTS: Postoperative complications developed in 64 patients (10.6%); there were no in-hospital deaths. All EPASS scores (p ≤ 0.001) and the operative severity score and total score of the POSSUM (p < 0.03) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications. The morbidity rates correlated linearly and significantly with all E-PASS scores (p ≤ 0.001); their coefficients (preoperative risk score, ρ = 0.179; surgical stress score, ρ = 0.131; and comprehensive risk score, ρ = 0.198) were higher than those for the POSSUM scores (physiological score, ρ = 0.059; operative severity score, ρ = 0.111; and total score, ρ = 0.091). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predicted morbidity rate was 0.668 for the E-PASS and 0.588 for the POSSUM system. CONCLUSIONS: As E-PASS predicted morbidity more correctly than POSSUM, it is useful for estimating the postoperative risk of patients considered for spinal surgery.

New equations for predicting postoperative risk in patients with hip fracture.

UNLABELLED: Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.