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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 3): 151273, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34718001

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: During 2014 to 2019, the SaniPath Exposure Assessment Tool, a standardized set of methods to evaluate risk of exposure to fecal contamination in the urban environment through multiple exposure pathways, was deployed in 45 neighborhoods in ten cities, including Accra and Kumasi, Ghana; Vellore, India; Maputo, Mozambique; Siem Reap, Cambodia; Atlanta, United States; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Lusaka, Zambia; Kampala, Uganda; Dakar, Senegal. OBJECTIVE: Assess and compare risk of exposure to fecal contamination via multiple pathways in ten cities. METHODS: In total, 4053 environmental samples, 4586 household surveys, 128 community surveys, and 124 school surveys were collected. E. coli concentrations were measured in environmental samples as an indicator of fecal contamination magnitude. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the distributions of fecal contamination concentration and contact frequency. Exposure to fecal contamination was estimated by the Monte Carlo method. The contamination levels of ten environmental compartments, frequency of contact with those compartments for adults and children, and estimated exposure to fecal contamination through any of the surveyed environmental pathways were compared across cities and neighborhoods. RESULTS: Distribution of fecal contamination in the environment and human contact behavior varied by city. Universally, food pathways were the most common dominant route of exposure to fecal contamination across cities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Risks of fecal exposure via water pathways, such as open drains, flood water, and municipal drinking water, were site-specific and often limited to smaller geographic areas (i.e., neighborhoods) instead of larger areas (i.e., cities). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of the relative contribution to fecal exposure from multiple pathways, and the environmental contamination level and frequency of contact for those "dominant pathways" could provide guidance for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) programming and investments and enable local governments and municipalities to improve intervention strategies to reduce the risk of exposure to fecal contamination.


Assuntos
Países em Desenvolvimento , Escherichia coli , Bangladesh , Teorema de Bayes , Criança , Cidades , Monitoramento Ambiental , Fezes , Humanos , Saneamento , Senegal , Uganda , Estados Unidos , Zâmbia
2.
Sci Total Environ ; 807(Pt 3): 151047, 2022 Feb 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34673061

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus, but it is also detected in a significant proportion of fecal samples from COVID-19 cases. Recent studies have shown that wastewater surveillance can be a low-cost tool compared to massive diagnostic testing for tracking COVID-19 outbreaks in communities, but most studies have focused on sampling from wastewater treatment plants. Institutional level wastewater surveillance may serve well for early warning purposes because specific geographic areas/populations with emerging cases can be tracked and immediate action can be executed in the event of a positive wastewater signal. In this study, a novel Moore swab method was developed and used for wastewater surveillance of COVID-19 at an institutional level. Of the 442 swab samples tested, 148 (33.5%) swabs collected from the three campuses and two buildings were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Further study of the quarantine building with a known number of cases indicated that this method was sensitive enough to detect few cases in the building. In addition, comparison between grab samples and Moore swab samples from the hospital sewage line indicated that Moore swabs were more sensitive than grab samples and offer a simple, inexpensive method for obtaining a composite sample of virus in wastewater over a 24-48 h period. These results suggest that collection and analyses of Moore swabs for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection is a sensitive, low-cost, and easy to use tool for COVID-19 surveillance that is useful for institutional settings and could be deployed in low-resource settings to identify emerging COVID-19 clusters in communities.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , RNA Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , Águas Residuárias , Vigilância Epidemiológica Baseada em Águas Residuárias
3.
Front Microbiol ; 12: 673604, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34093494

RESUMO

Phages, such as those infecting Bacteroides spp., have been proven to be reliable indicators of human fecal contamination in microbial source tracking (MST) studies, and the efficacy of these MST markers found to vary geographically. This study reports the application and evaluation of candidate MST methods (phages infecting previously isolated B. fragilis strain GB-124, newly isolated Bacteroides strains (K10, K29, and K33) and recently isolated Kluyvera intermedia strain ASH-08), along with non-source specific somatic coliphages (SOMCPH infecting strain WG-5) and indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli) for identifying fecal contamination pathways in Kolkata, India. Source specificity of the phage-based methods was first tested using 60 known non-human fecal samples from common animals, before being evaluated with 56 known human samples (municipal sewage) collected during both the rainy and dry season. SOMCPH were present in 40-90% of samples from different animal species and in 100% of sewage samples. Phages infecting Bacteroides strain GB-124 were not detected from the majority (95%) of animal samples (except in three porcine samples) and were present in 93 and 71% of the sewage samples in the rainy and dry season (Mean = 1.42 and 1.83 log10PFU/100mL, respectively), though at lower levels than SOMCPH (Mean = 3.27 and 3.02 log10PFU/100mL, respectively). Phages infecting strain ASH-08 were detected in 89 and 96% of the sewage samples in the rainy and dry season, respectively, but were also present in all animal samples tested (except goats). Strains K10, K29, and K30 were not found to be useful MST markers due to low levels of phages and/or co-presence in non-human sources. GB-124 and SOMCPH were subsequently deployed within two low-income neighborhoods to determine the levels and origin of fecal contamination in 110 environmental samples. E. coli, SOMCPH, and phages of GB-124 were detected in 68, 42, and 28% of the samples, respectively. Analyses of 166 wastewater samples from shared community toilets and 21 samples from sewage pumping stations from the same districts showed that SOMCPH were present in 100% and GB-124 phages in 31% of shared toilet samples (Median = 5.59 and <1 log10 PFU/100 mL, respectively), and both SOMCPH and GB-124 phages were detected in 95% of pumping station samples (Median = 5.82 and 4.04 log10 PFU/100 mL, respectively). Our findings suggest that GB-124 and SOMCPH have utility as low-cost fecal indicator tools which can facilitate environmental surveillance of enteric organisms, elucidate human and non-human fecal exposure pathways, and inform interventions to mitigate exposure to fecal contamination in the residential environment of Kolkata, India.

4.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 21(1): 329, 2021 Apr 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33902472

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Health facility deliveries are generally associated with improved maternal and child health outcomes. However, in Uganda, little is known about factors that influence use of health facilities for delivery especially in rural areas. In this study, we assessed the factors associated with health facility deliveries among mothers living within the catchment areas of major health facilities in Rukungiri and Kanungu districts, Uganda. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were collected from 894 randomly-sampled mothers within the catchment of two private hospitals in Rukungiri and Kanungu districts. Data were collected on the place of delivery for the most recent child, mothers' sociodemographic and economic characteristics, and health facility water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) status. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) for the determinants of health facility deliveries as well as factors associated with private versus public utilization of health facilities for childbirth. RESULTS: The majority of mothers (90.2%, 806/894) delivered in health facilities. Non-facility deliveries were attributed to faster progression of labour (77.3%, 68/88), lack of transport (31.8%, 28/88), and high cost of hospital delivery (12.5%, 11/88). Being a business-woman [APR = 1.06, 95% CI (1.01-1.11)] and belonging to the highest wealth quintile [APR = 1.09, 95% CI (1.02-1.17)] favoured facility delivery while a higher parity of 3-4 [APR = 0.93, 95% CI (0.88-0.99)] was inversely associated with health facility delivery as compared to parity of 1-2. Factors associated with delivery in a private facility compared to a public facility included availability of highly skilled health workers [APR = 1.15, 95% CI (1.05-1.26)], perceived higher quality of WASH services [APR = 1.11, 95% CI (1.04-1.17)], cost of the delivery [APR = 0.85, 95% CI (0.78-0.92)], and availability of caesarean services [APR = 1.13, 95% CI (1.08-1.19)]. CONCLUSION: Health facility delivery service utilization was high, and associated with engaging in business, belonging to wealthiest quintile and having higher parity. Factors associated with delivery in private facilities included health facility WASH status, cost of services, and availability of skilled workforce and caesarean services.


Assuntos
Entorno do Parto/estatística & dados numéricos , Centros de Assistência à Gravidez e ao Parto , Parto Obstétrico , Serviços de Saúde Materna/organização & administração , Instalações Privadas , Logradouros Públicos , Adulto , Centros de Assistência à Gravidez e ao Parto/economia , Centros de Assistência à Gravidez e ao Parto/normas , Estudos Transversais , Parto Obstétrico/economia , Parto Obstétrico/métodos , Parto Obstétrico/estatística & dados numéricos , Demografia , Feminino , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Humanos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Gravidez , Instalações Privadas/normas , Instalações Privadas/estatística & dados numéricos , Logradouros Públicos/normas , Logradouros Públicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Serviços de Saúde Rural/economia , Serviços de Saúde Rural/normas , Serviços de Saúde Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Uganda/epidemiologia
5.
Int J Hyg Environ Health ; 230: 113619, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32942223

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite wide usage of on-site sanitation, there is limited field-based evidence on the removal or release of pathogens from septic tanks and other primary treatment systems, such as anaerobic baffled reactors (ABR). In two low-income areas in Dhaka, we conducted a cross-sectional study to explore pathogen loads discharged from commonly used on-site sanitation-systems and their transport in nearby drains and waterways. METHODS: We collected samples of drain water, drain sediment, canal water, and floodwater from April-October 2019. Sludge, supernatant, and effluent samples were also collected from septic tanks and ABRs. We investigated the presence and concentration of selected enteric pathogens (Shigella, Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae), Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi), Norovirus Genogroup-II (NoV-GII), and Giardia) and presence of Cryptosporidium in these samples using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).The equivalent genome copies (EGC) of individual pathogens were estimated in each sample by interpolation of the mean Ct value to the corresponding standard curve and the dilution factor for each sample type. Absolute quantification was expressed as log10 EGC per 100 mL for the water samples and log10 EGC per gram for the sediment samples. RESULTS: Among all samples tested (N = 151), 89% were contaminated with Shigella, 68% with V. cholerae and NoV-GII, 32% with Giardia, 17% with S. Typhi and 6% with Cryptosporidium. A wide range of concentration of pathogens [range: mean log10 concentration of Giardia = 0.74 EGC/100 mL in drain ultrafiltration samples to mean log10 concentration of NoV-GII and Giardia = 7.11 EGC/100 mL in ABR sludge] was found in all environmental samples. The highest pathogen concentrations were detected in open drains [range: mean log10 concentration = 2.50-4.94 EGC/100 mL], septic tank effluent [range: mean log10 concentration = 3.32-4.65 EGC/100 mL], and ABR effluent [range: mean log10 concentration = 2.72-5.13 EGC/100 mL]. CONCLUSIONS: High concentrations of pathogens (particularly NoV-GII, V.cholerae and Shigella) were frequently detected in environmental samples from two low-income urban neighbourhoods of Dhaka city. The numerous environmental exposure pathways for children and adults make these findings of public health concern. These results should prompt rethinking of how to achieve safe sanitation solutions that protect public health in dense low-income areas. In particular, improved management and maintenance regimes, further treatment of liquid effluent from primary treatment processes, and appropriate application of onsite, decentralised and offsite sanitation systems given the local context.


Assuntos
Criptosporidiose , Cryptosporidium , Bangladesh , Criança , Estudos Transversais , Escherichia coli , Fezes , Humanos , Saneamento
6.
PLoS One ; 15(6): e0234364, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32530933

RESUMO

Inadequate sanitation can lead to exposure to fecal contamination through multiple environmental pathways and can result in adverse health outcomes. By understanding the relative importance of multiple exposure pathways, sanitation interventions can be tailored to those pathways with greatest potential public health impact. The SaniPath Exposure Assessment Tool allows users to identify and quantify human exposure to fecal contamination in low-resource urban settings through a systematic yet customizable process. The Tool includes: a project management platform; mobile data collection and a data repository; protocols for primary data collection; and automated exposure assessment analysis. The data collection protocols detail the process of conducting behavioral surveys with households, school children, and community groups to quantify contact with fecal exposure pathways and of collecting and analyzing environmental samples for E. coli as an indicator of fecal contamination. Bayesian analyses are used to estimate the percentage of the population exposed and the mean dose of fecal exposure from microbiological and behavioral data. Fecal exposure from nine pathways (drinking water, bathing water, surface water, ocean water, open drains, floodwater, raw produce, street food, and public or shared toilets) can be compared through a common metric-estimated ingestion of E. coli units (MPN or CFU) per month. The Tool generates data visualizations and recommendations for interventions designed for both scientific and lay audiences. When piloted in Accra, Ghana, the results of the Tool were comparable with that of an in-depth study conducted in the same neighborhoods and highlighted consumption of raw produce as a dominant exposure pathway. The Tool has been deployed in nine cities to date, and the results are being used by local authorities to design and prioritize programming and policy. The SaniPath Tool is a novel approach to support public-health evidence-based decision-making for urban sanitation policies and investments.


Assuntos
Microbiologia Ambiental , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Fezes/microbiologia , Saneamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Software , Cidades , Tomada de Decisões , Exposição Ambiental , Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Escherichia coli/isolamento & purificação , Contaminação de Alimentos , Gana , Humanos , Projetos Piloto , Formulação de Políticas , Pobreza , Saúde Pública , Saúde da População Urbana , Microbiologia da Água
7.
PLoS One ; 14(12): e0221193, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31841549

RESUMO

Rapid urbanization has led to a growing sanitation crisis in urban areas of Bangladesh and potential exposure to fecal contamination in the urban environment due to inadequate sanitation and poor fecal sludge management. Limited data are available on environmental fecal contamination associated with different exposure pathways in urban Dhaka. We conducted a cross-sectional study to explore the magnitude of fecal contamination in the environment in low-income, high-income, and transient/floating neighborhoods in urban Dhaka. Ten samples were collected from each of 10 environmental compartments in 10 different neighborhoods (4 low-income, 4 high-income and 2 transient/floating neighborhoods). These 1,000 samples were analyzed with the IDEXX-Quanti-Tray technique to determine most-probable-number (MPN) of E. coli. Samples of open drains (6.91 log10 MPN/100 mL), surface water (5.28 log10 MPN/100 mL), floodwater (4.60 log10 MPN/100 mL), produce (3.19 log10 MPN/serving), soil (2.29 log10 MPN/gram), and street food (1.79 log10 MPN/gram) had the highest mean log10 E. coli contamination compared to other samples. The contamination concentrations did not differ between low-income and high-income neighborhoods for shared latrine swabs, open drains, municipal water, produce, and street foodsamples. E. coli contamination levels were significantly higher (p <0.05) in low-income neighborhoods compared to high-income for soil (0.91 log10 MPN/gram, 95% CI, 0.39, 1.43), bathing water (0.98 log10 MPN/100 mL, 95% CI, 0.41, 1.54), non-municipal water (0.64 log10 MPN/100 mL, 95% CI, 0.24, 1.04), surface water (1.92 log10 MPN/100 mL, 95% CI, 1.44, 2.40), and floodwater (0.48 log10 MPN/100 mL, 95% CI, 0.03, 0.92) samples. E. coli contamination were significantly higher (p<0.05) in low-income neighborhoods compared to transient/floating neighborhoods for drain water, bathing water, non-municipal water and surface water. Future studies should examine behavior that brings people into contact with the environment and assess the extent of exposure to fecal contamination in the environment through multiple pathways and associated risks.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Fezes/microbiologia , Bangladesh , Estudos Transversais , Poluição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Escherichia coli/patogenicidade , Contaminação de Alimentos , Humanos , Pobreza , Características de Residência , Saneamento/métodos , Solo , Microbiologia do Solo , Urbanização/tendências , Água/análise , Microbiologia da Água
8.
PLoS One ; 13(7): e0199304, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29969466

RESUMO

Exposure to fecal contamination in public areas, especially in dense, urban environments, may significantly contribute to enteric infection risk. This study examined associations between sanitation and fecal contamination in public environments in four low-income neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. Soil (n = 72) and open drain (n = 90) samples were tested for E. coli, adenovirus, and norovirus. Sanitation facilities in surveyed households (n = 793) were categorized by onsite fecal sludge containment ("contained" vs. "uncontained") using previous Joint Monitoring Program infrastructure guidelines. Most sanitation facilities were shared by multiple households. Associations between spatial clustering of household sanitation coverage and fecal contamination were examined, controlling for neighborhood and population density (measured as enumeration areas in the 2010 census and spatially matched to sample locations). E. coli concentrations in drains within 50m of clusters of contained household sanitation were more than 3 log-units lower than those outside of clusters. Further, although results were not always statistically significant, E. coli concentrations in drains showed consistent trends with household sanitation coverage clusters: concentrations were lower in or near clusters of high coverage of household sanitation facilities-especially contained facilities-and vice versa. Virus detection in drains and E. coli concentrations in soil were not significantly associated with clustering of any type of household sanitation and did not exhibit consistent trends. Population density alone was not significantly associated with any of the fecal contamination outcomes by itself and was a significant, yet inconsistent, effect modifier of the association between sanitation clusters and E. coli concentrations. These findings suggest clustering of contained household sanitation, even when shared, may be associated with lower levels of fecal contamination within drains in the immediate public domain. Further research is needed to better quantify these relationships and examine impacts on health.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Poluição Ambiental/análise , Saneamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Esgotos/análise , Adenoviridae/isolamento & purificação , Análise por Conglomerados , Escherichia coli/isolamento & purificação , Fezes/microbiologia , Fezes/virologia , Gana , Humanos , Norovirus/isolamento & purificação , Densidade Demográfica , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Características de Residência , Eliminação de Resíduos Líquidos/economia , Eliminação de Resíduos Líquidos/métodos
9.
Risk Anal ; 38(11): 2478-2496, 2018 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30053314

RESUMO

In recent decades, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been widely used to assess exposure to fecal microbes and associated health risks. In this study, a multipathway exposure assessment model was developed to evaluate exposure to fecal microbes for children under 5 in highly contaminated urban environments. Children had contact with various environmental compartments. The contamination levels of these compartments were estimated from fecal indicator counts in the environmental samples. Structured observations of child behavior (including activities, locations, and time) were used to model behavioral sequences as a dynamic network. The exposure model combines behavior sequences with environmental contamination, using additional exposure factors when needed, to estimate the number of fecal microbes transferred from environmental sources to human oral ingestion. As fecal exposure in a highly contaminated urban environment consists of contributions from multiple pathways, it is imperative to study their relative importance. The model helps us better understand the characteristics of the exposure pathways that may be driven by variation in contamination and by variable behavior, like hygiene and high-risk activities. Importantly, the model also allows prediction of the quantitative effects of an intervention-the expected reduction in exposure due to infrastructural or behavioral changes-by means of scenario studies. Based on experience with this exposure model, we make specific recommendations for additional studies of child behavior and exposure factors in order to fill critical information gaps and improve the model structure and assumptions.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Fezes , Medição de Risco/métodos , Criança , Cidades , Simulação por Computador , Contaminação de Alimentos , Humanos , Higiene , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Características de Residência , Saneamento , População Urbana
10.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 97(4): 1009-1019, 2017 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29031283

RESUMO

Lack of adequate sanitation results in fecal contamination of the environment and poses a risk of disease transmission via multiple exposure pathways. To better understand how eight different sources contribute to overall exposure to fecal contamination, we quantified exposure through multiple pathways for children under 5 years old in four high-density, low-income, urban neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. We collected more than 500 hours of structured observation of behaviors of 156 children, 800 household surveys, and 1,855 environmental samples. Data were analyzed using Bayesian models, estimating the environmental and behavioral factors associated with exposure to fecal contamination. These estimates were applied in exposure models simulating sequences of behaviors and transfers of fecal indicators. This approach allows us to identify the contribution of any sources of fecal contamination in the environment to child exposure and use dynamic fecal microbe transfer networks to track fecal indicators from the environment to oral ingestion. The contributions of different sources to exposure were categorized into four types (high/low by dose and frequency), as a basis for ranking pathways by the potential to reduce exposure. Although we observed variation in estimated exposure (108-1016 CFU/day for Escherichia coli) between different age groups and neighborhoods, the greatest contribution was consistently from food (contributing > 99.9% to total exposure). Hands played a pivotal role in fecal microbe transfer, linking environmental sources to oral ingestion. The fecal microbe transfer network constructed here provides a systematic approach to study the complex interaction between contaminated environment and human behavior on exposure to fecal contamination.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Fezes , Contaminação de Alimentos , Teorema de Bayes , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Gana , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 97(4): 1020-1032, 2017 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28722599

RESUMO

Rapid urbanization has contributed to an urban sanitation crisis in low-income countries. Residents in low-income, urban neighborhoods often have poor sanitation infrastructure and services and may experience frequent exposure to fecal contamination through a range of pathways. There are little data to prioritize strategies to decrease exposure to fecal contamination in these complex and highly contaminated environments, and public health priorities are rarely considered when planning urban sanitation investments. The SaniPath Study addresses this need by characterizing pathways of exposure to fecal contamination. Over a 16 month period, an in-depth, interdisciplinary exposure assessment was conducted in both public and private domains of four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. Microbiological analyses of environmental samples and behavioral data collection techniques were used to quantify fecal contamination in the environment and characterize the behaviors of adults and children associated with exposure to fecal contamination. Environmental samples (n = 1,855) were collected and analyzed for fecal indicators and enteric pathogens. A household survey with 800 respondents and over 500 hours of structured observation of young children were conducted. Approximately 25% of environmental samples were collected in conjunction with structured observations (n = 441 samples). The results of the study highlight widespread and often high levels of fecal contamination in both public and private domains and the food supply. The dominant fecal exposure pathway for young children in the household was through consumption of uncooked produce. The SaniPath Study provides critical information on exposure to fecal contamination in low-income, urban environments and ultimately can inform investments and policies to reduce these public health risks.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Fezes , Contaminação de Alimentos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Gana , Humanos , Masculino , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Urbanização
12.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 95(3): 709-19, 2016 09 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27430547

RESUMO

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies.


Assuntos
Saneamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Meio Ambiente , Etiópia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Densidade Demográfica , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Saneamento/normas , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Banheiros/normas , Banheiros/estatística & dados numéricos
13.
Epidemiology ; 21(5): 711-8, 2010 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20508526

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Secondary transmission after point-source outbreaks is an integral feature of the epidemiology of gastrointestinal pathogens such as norovirus. The household is an important site of these secondary cases. It can become the source of further community transmission as well as new point-source outbreaks. Consequently, time-series data from exposed households provide information for risk assessment and intervention. METHODS: Analysis of these data requires models that can address (1) dependencies in infection transmission, (2) random variability resulting from households with few members, and (3) unobserved state variables important to transmission. We use Monte Carlo maximum likelihood via data augmentation for obtaining estimates of the transmission rate and infectious period from household outbreaks with the 3 above features. RESULTS: We apply this parameter estimation technique to 153 infection sequences within households from a norovirus outbreak in Sweden and obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the daily rate of transmission ([Greek small letter beta with circumflex accent] = 0.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.08-0.24) and average infectious period (1/[Greek small letter gamma with circumflex accent] = 1.17 days, 95% CI = 1.00-1.88). We also demonstrate the robustness of the estimates to missing household sizes and asymptomatic infections. CONCLUSIONS: Maximum likelihood techniques such as these can be used to estimate transmission parameters under conditions of unobserved states and missing household size data, and to aid in the understanding of secondary risks associated with point-source outbreaks.


Assuntos
Infecções por Caliciviridae/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Gastroenterite/epidemiologia , Norovirus , Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Intervalos de Confiança , Características da Família , Gastroenterite/microbiologia , Humanos , Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Funções Verossimilhança , Método de Monte Carlo , Medição de Risco , Suécia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo
14.
J Med Virol ; 80(8): 1468-76, 2008 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18551613

RESUMO

Noroviruses are major agents of viral gastroenteritis worldwide. The infectivity of Norwalk virus, the prototype norovirus, has been studied in susceptible human volunteers. A new variant of the hit theory model of microbial infection was developed to estimate the variation in Norwalk virus infectivity, as well as the degree of virus aggregation, consistent with independent (electron microscopic) observations. Explicit modeling of viral aggregation allows us to express virus infectivity per single infectious unit (particle). Comparison of a primary and a secondary inoculum showed that passage through a human host does not change Norwalk virus infectivity. We estimate the average probability of infection for a single Norwalk virus particle to be close to 0.5, exceeding that reported for any other virus studied to date. Infected subjects had a dose-dependent probability of becoming ill, ranging from 0.1 (at a dose of 10(3) NV genomes) to 0.7 (at 10(8) virus genomes). A norovirus dose response model is important for understanding its transmission and essential for development of a quantitative risk model. Norwalk virus is a valuable model system to study virulence because genetic factors are known for both complete and partial protection; the latter can be quantitatively described as heterogeneity in dose response models.


Assuntos
Gastroenterite , Modelos Biológicos , Vírus Norwalk/patogenicidade , Infecções por Caliciviridae/genética , Infecções por Caliciviridae/fisiopatologia , Infecções por Caliciviridae/transmissão , Infecções por Caliciviridae/virologia , Gastroenterite/genética , Gastroenterite/fisiopatologia , Gastroenterite/virologia , Humanos , Microscopia Eletrônica , Método de Monte Carlo , Vírus Norwalk/genética , Vírus Norwalk/isolamento & purificação , Vírus Norwalk/ultraestrutura , RNA Viral/análise , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Medição de Risco
15.
J Water Health ; 4 Suppl 1: 41-57, 2006.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16493899

RESUMO

The year 2005 marks the beginning of the "International Decade for Action: Water for Life" and renewed effort to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) to reduce by half the proportion of the world's population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation by 2015. Currently, UNICEF and WHO estimate that 1.1 billion people lack access to improved water supplies and 2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation. Providing safe water and basic sanitation to meet the MDGs will require substantial economic resources, sustainable technological solutions and courageous political will. We review five major challenges to providing safe water and sanitation on a global basis: (1) contamination of water in distribution systems, (2) growing water scarcity and the potential for water reuse and conservation, (3) implementing innovative low-cost sanitation systems, (4) providing sustainable water supplies and sanitation for megacities, and (5) reducing global and regional disparities in access to water and sanitation and developing financially sustainable water and sanitation services.


Assuntos
Saúde Global , Saúde Pública , Saneamento , Abastecimento de Água/normas , Agricultura , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Países em Desenvolvimento , Ingestão de Líquidos , Monitoramento Ambiental , Humanos , Nações Unidas , População Urbana , Microbiologia da Água , Organização Mundial da Saúde
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