Unveiling the lead exposure attributed burden in Iran from 1990 to 2019 through the lens of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

This study aimed to investigate the estimated burden attributed to lead exposure (LE), at the national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. The burden attributed to LE was determined through the estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) using the comparative risk assessment method of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study presenting as age-standardized per 100,000 person year (PY) with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Furthermore, the burden of each disease were recorded independently. Eventually, the age-standardized YLLs, DALYs, deaths and YLDs rates attributed to LE demonstrated a decrease of 50.7%, 48.9%, 38.0%, and 36.4%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The most important causes of LE burden are divided into two acute and chronic categories: acute, mainly causes mental disorders (DALYs rate of 36.0 in 2019), and chronic, results in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (DALYs rate of 391.8) and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) (DALYs rate of 26.6), with CVDs bearing the most significant burden. At the sub-national level, a decrease in burden was evident in most provinces; moreover, low and low-middle SDI provinces born the highest burden. The burden increased mainly by ageing and was higher in males than females. It was concluded that although the overall decrease in the burden; still it is high, especially in low and low-middle SDI provinces, in advanced ages and in males. Among IDID, CKDs and CVDs that are the most important causes of LE-attributed burden in Iran; CVDs bear the highest burden.

Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors. METHODS: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths. CONCLUSION: The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region.

The global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of kidney cancer; a global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2019.

Kidney cancer (KC) is a prevalent cancer worldwide. The incidence and mortality rates of KC have risen in recent decades. The quality of care provided to KC patients is a concern for public health. Considering the importance of KC, in this study, we aim to assess the burden of the disease, gender and age disparities globally, regionally, and nationally to evaluate the quality and inequities of KC care. The 2019 Global Burden of Disease study provides data on the burden of the KC. The secondary indices, including mortality-to-incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years -to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and years of life lost-to-years lived with disability ratio, were utilized. These four newly merged indices were converted to the quality-of-care index (QCI) as a summary measure using principal component analysis. QCI ranged between 0 and 100, and higher amounts of QCI indicate higher quality of care. Gender disparity ratio was calculated by dividing QCI for females by males to show gender inequity. The global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of KC increased by 29.1% (95% uncertainty interval 18.7-40.7) and 11.6% (4.6-20.0) between 1990 and 2019, respectively. Globally, the QCI score for KC increased by 14.6% during 30 years, from 71.3 to 81.6. From 1990 to 2019, the QCI score has increased in all socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. By 2019, the highest QCI score was in regions with a high SDI (93.0), and the lowest was in low SDI quintiles (38.2). Based on the World Health Organization regions, the QCI score was highest in the region of America, with Canada having the highest score (99.6) and the lowest in the African Region, where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (17.2). In 1990, the gender disparity ratio was 0.98, and in 2019, it was 0.97 showing an almost similar QCI score for females and males. Although the quality of care for KC has improved from 1990 to 2019, there is a significant gap between nations and different socioeconomic levels. This study provides clinicians and health authorities with a global perspective on the quality of care for KC and identifies the existing disparities.

Global and regional quality of care index (QCI) by gender and age in oesophageal cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the quality of care by age and gender in oesophageal cancer using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. METHODS: Patients aged 20 and over with oesophageal cancer were included in this longitudinal study using GBD 1990-2019 data. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to classify the regions. We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to calculate the Quality of Care Index (QCI). The QCI was rescaled into a 0-100 single index, demonstrating that the higher the score, the better the QC. RESULTS: The age-standardized QCI for oesophageal cancer dramatically increased from 23.5 in 1990 to 41.1 in 2019 for both sexes, globally. The high SDI regions showed higher QCI than the rest of the regions (45.1 in 1990 and 65.7 in 2019) whereas the low SDI regions had the lowest QCI, which showed a 4.5% decrease through the years (from 13.3 in 1990 to 12.7 in 2019). Globally, in 2019, the QCI showed the highest scores for patients aged 80-84, reported 48.2, and the lowest score for patients aged 25-29 reported 31.5, for both sexes. Globally, in 2019, age-standardized Gender Disparity Ratio (GDR) was 1.2, showing higher QCI in females than males. CONCLUSION: There were fundamental differences in the QCI both globally and regionally between different age groups as well as between males and females. To achieve the goal of providing high-quality services equally to people in need in all over the world, health systems need to invest in effective diagnostic services, treatments, facilities, and equipment and to plan for screening and surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 µm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. METHODS: The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis. FINDINGS: The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher. INTERPRETATION: The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. STUDY DESIGN: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. RESULTS: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

National and subnational burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Iran, 1990-2019: Results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Central nervous system cancers (CNS cancers) impose a significant burden upon healthcare systems worldwide. Currently, the lack of a comprehensive study to assess various epidemiological indexes of CNS cancers on national and subnational scales in Iran can hamper healthcare planning and resource allocation in this regard. This study aims to fill this gap by providing estimates of CNS cancer epidemiological measures on national and subnational levels in Iran from 1990 to 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study is a part of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 that contains epidemiological measures including prevalence, incidence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) of CNS cancers. Age standardization was utilized for comparing different provinces. RESULTS: In 2019, 5811 (95% Uncertainty Interval: 2942-7046) national new cases and 3494 (1751-4173) deaths due to CNS cancers were reported. National age-standardized incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and DALYs rates were 7.3 (3.7-8.8), 4.6 (2.3-5.5), and 156.4 (82.0-187.0) per 100,000 in 2019, respectively. Subnational results revealed that ASDR and ASIR have increased in the past 30 years in all provinces. Although incidence rates have increased in all age groups and genders since 1990, death rates have remained the same for most age groups and genders except for young patients aged under 15, where a decrease in mortality and YLLs can be observed. CONCLUSION: The incidence, deaths, and DALYs of CNS cancers increased at national and subnational levels. These findings should be considered for planning and resource allocation.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of liver cirrhosis by cause from global burden of disease 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases are complex disorders with a known burden. Currently health systems have different approaches to dealing with this issue. The objective of this study is to describe the burden attributed to and quality of care for cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. METHODS: Data of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases extracted from Global-Burden-of-Diseases 2019. Four indicators, including mortality to incidence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, and years-of-life-lost (YLLs) to years-lived-with-disability (YLDs) ratio, were defined and combined by the principal-components-analysis to construct the Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). RESULTS: The global QCI of cirrhosis increased from 71.0 in 1990 to 79.3 in 2019. The QCI showed a favorable situation in higher SDI countries compared with lower SDI countries, with a QCI of 86.8 in high SDI countries and 60.1 in low SDI countries. The highest QCI was found in Western Pacific Region (90.2), and the lowest was for African Region (60.4). Highest QCI belonged to the 50-54 age group (99.5), and the lowest was for the 30.34 age group (70.9). Among underlying causes of cirrhosis, the highest QCI belonged to alcohol use, followed by hepatitis C and NAFLD with QCIs of 86.1, 85.3, and 81.1. CONCLUSIONS: There was a considerable variation in the QCI of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. Countries with low QCI, mainly located in developing regions, need organized action to control the burden of cirrhosis and its underlying causes and improve their quality of care.

Social determinants of health inequity in Iran: a narrative review.

Objective: COVID-19 burden the health system by influencing several aspects of social determinants of health (SDH). We review SDH inequity in Iran with notice on COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions. Method: The Databases such as MEDLINE, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched. The SDH components were extracted regarding the effect of COVID-19 and sanctions. Global burden of disease was used to evaluate the impact of sanctions on mortality in Iran. Result: The literacy rate improved over the last decades but, there is still inequality between provinces. Age and regional inequity exists, regarding NCD mortality. Food insecurity varies in different regions between 20% and 60%.Providing care for a growing aging population, with a large burden of NCDs and disabilities will be the major issue in the next decade. The decrease slop of mortality rate due to NCDs, have become smoother since impose of sanctions, while, cancer mortality have changed upwards. COVID-19, and sanctions negatively impacts lower socioeconomically vulnerable groups due to preexisting conditions which wider the existing inequity in SDH are adding a heavy burden of inequity in Iran. Conclusion: Iran, similar to large numbers of countries, face inequity at regional level in different SDH related issues. The COVID-19 pandemic showed that economic status and health are aligned. Sanctions superimposed on the COVID-19 pandemic cause harm to millions of innocent people. One of the main goals of health authorities is to reduce SDH inequity in order to achieve the goal of "health for all". To tackle these inequities, prompt action is needed.

Epidemiology of Brain and Other Central Nervous System Cancers in the North Africa and Middle East Region: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To present estimates of prevalence and incidence of and contributors to central nervous system (CNS) cancers, death, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. METHODS: Primary measures were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease 2019. Contribution of various factors to observed incidence and mortality changes was investigated with decomposition and age-period-cohort analyses. RESULTS: In 2019, 27,529 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 18,554-32,579; percent change compared with 1990: +152.5%) new CNS cancers and 17,773 (95% UI:12,096-20,936; percent change compared with 1990: +111.5%) deaths occurred. Meanwhile, 71.0% increase led to 71,6271 (95% UI: 493,932-848,226) disability-adjusted life years in 2019 with a halved years of life lost/years lived with disability ratio of 66.3% (proxy of worse care quality). Altogether, 97,195 (95% UI: 64,216-115,621; percent change compared with 1990: +280.5%) patients with prevalent cases were alive in 2019. All decomposed indices, including aging, cause-specific incidence, and population growth, contributed substantially to increased incidence of CNS cancers. Moreover, age brackets, study period (1990-2019), and 5-year cohorts all demonstrated positive effects, while age had a mixed influence in different age groups. Palestine harbored the highest age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate in 2019 (232.0 [95% UI: 175.6-279.5]), while Tunisia had the lowest (41.8 [95% UI: 27.6-57.1] per 100,000). The greatest burden increase was found in Saudi Arabia (32.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of CNS cancers is rising in North Africa and the Middle East, with major heterogeneities among countries. Improved early detection and health care access across countries are required to bridge inequalities and address the rising burden of CNS malignancies.

The socioeconomic gradient of alcohol use: an analysis of nationally representative survey data from 55 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a leading risk factor for over 200 conditions and an important contributor to socioeconomic health inequalities. However, little is known about the associations between individuals' socioeconomic circumstances and alcohol consumption, especially heavy episodic drinking (HED; ≥5 drinks on one occasion) in low-income or middle-income countries. We investigated the association between individual and household level socioeconomic status, and alcohol drinking habits in these settings. METHODS: In this pooled analysis of individual-level data, we used available nationally representative surveys-mainly WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance surveys-conducted in 55 low-income and middle-income countries between 2005 and 2017 reporting on alcohol use. Surveys from participants aged 15 years or older were included. Logistic regression models controlling for age, country, and survey year stratified by sex and country income groups were used to investigate associations between two indicators of socioeconomic status (individual educational attainment and household wealth) and alcohol use (current drinking and HED amongst current drinkers). FINDINGS: Surveys from 336 287 participants were included in the analysis. Among males, the highest prevalence of both current drinking and HED was found in lower-middle-income countries (L-MICs; current drinking 49·9% [95% CI 48·7-51·2] and HED 63·3% [61·0-65·7]). Among females, the prevalence of current drinking was highest in upper-middle-income countries (U-MIC; 29·5% [26·1-33·2]), and the prevalence of HED was highest in low-income countries (LICs; 36·8% [33·6-40·2]). Clear gradients in the prevalence of current drinking were observed across all country income groups, with a higher prevalence among participants with high socioeconomic status. However, in U-MICs, current drinkers with low socioeconomic status were more likely to engage in HED than participants with high socioeconomic status; the opposite was observed in LICs, and no association between socioeconomic status and HED was found in L-MICs. INTERPRETATION: The findings call for urgent alcohol control policies and interventions in LICs and L-MICs to reduce harmful HED. Moreover, alcohol control policies need to be targeted at socially disadvantaged groups in U-MICs. FUNDING: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the US National Institutes of Health.

Quality of care of peptic ulcer disease worldwide: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) affects four million people worldwide annually and has an estimated lifetime prevalence of 5-10% in the general population. Worldwide, there are significant heterogeneities in coping approaches of healthcare systems with PUD in prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. Quantifying and benchmarking health systems' performance is crucial yet challenging to provide a clearer picture of the potential global inequities in the quality of care. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality-of-care and inequities for PUD among age groups and sexes worldwide. METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019. Principal-Component-Analysis was used to combine age-standardized mortality-to-incidence-ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years-to-prevalence-ratio, prevalence-to-incidence-ratio, and years-of-life-lost-to-years-lived-with-disability-into a single proxy named Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). QCI was used to compare the quality of care among countries. QCI's validity was investigated via correlation with the cause-specific Healthcare-Access-and-Quality-index, which was acceptable. Inequities were presented among age groups and sexes. Gender Disparity Ratio was obtained by dividing the score of women by that of men. RESULTS: Global QCI was 72.6 in 1990, which increased by 14.6% to 83.2 in 2019. High-income-Asia-pacific had the highest QCI, while Central Latin America had the lowest. QCI of high-SDI countries was 82.9 in 1990, which increased to 92.9 in 2019. The QCI of low-SDI countries was 65.0 in 1990, which increased to 76.9 in 2019. There was heterogeneity among the QCI-level of countries with the same SDI level. QCI typically decreased as people aged; however, this gap was more significant among low-SDI countries. The global Gender Disparity Ratio was close to one and ranged from 0.97 to 1.03 in 100 of 204 countries. CONCLUSION: QCI of PUD improved dramatically during 1990-2019 worldwide. There are still significant heterogeneities among countries on different and similar SDI levels.

Epidemiology, burden, and attributable risks of infective endocarditis in Iran and its provinces: From 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Endocarditis is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality and an escalating incidence in recent decades. In this study, as a part of the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we intend to report endocarditis burden in Iran at national and provincial levels from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: This study was conducted using GBD 2019 study data on endocarditis from 1990 to 2019. We gathered incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates in Iran and its 31 provinces by sex and age groups as epidemiological indices for endocarditis burden. Further decomposition analysis was also performed to delineate the endocarditis new cases trend. RESULTS: On the country scale, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate were (16.5 (95% uncertainty interval 13.7 to 19.8), 3.4 (2.9 to 4.1), 0.6 (0.5 to 0.9), and 14.4 (12.0 to 21.1) in 2019, respectively. Decomposition analysis showed that only 59.2% of the overall new cases increase (114.1%) was caused by the incidence rate change. All estimated age-standardized rates were higher in men in 1990 and 2019 with a ratio of 1.1-1.5. CONCLUSION: The ASIR and ASPR of endocarditis increased, and the ASMR and age-standardized DALYs rate declined over the past 30 years in Iran, nearly all the provinces followed the same pattern with North Khorasan having the Highest ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and DALYs rates in both years. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) had the greatest attributed burden among risk factors.

National and subnational burden of stroke in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Data on the burden of stroke and changing trends at national and subnational levels are necessary for policymakers to allocate recourses appropriately. This study presents estimates of the stroke burden from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. METHODS: For the GBD 2019, verbal autopsy and vital registration data were used to estimate stroke mortality. Cause-specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to stroke risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment. Decomposition analysis was applied to determine the contribution of population aging, population growth, and changes in the age-specific incidence rates. RESULTS: In 2019, the number of prevalent cases, incident cases, and deaths due to stroke in Iran were 963,512; 102,778; and 40,912, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 1990 to 2019. Of national stroke ASDRs in 2019, 44.7% (35.7-54.7%) were attributable to hypertension and 28.8% (15.2-57.4) to high fasting plasma glucose. At the subnational level, the trend of the stroke incidence and mortality rate decreased in all provinces. Stroke was responsible for 4.48% of total DALYs in 2019 (3.38% due to ischemic stroke, 0.87% due to intracerebral hemorrhage, and 0.22% due to subarachnoid hemorrhage). CONCLUSION: ASIR and ASDR of stroke are decreasing nationally and subnationally; however, the number of incident cases and deaths are increasing in all SDI quintiles, possibly due to population growth.

The national trend of the gastric cancer burden in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Gastric cancer (GC), the leading cause of cancer mortality, is the third most common cancer in Iran. To our knowledge, there have been few accurate estimates on the burden of GC in Iran. Therefore, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we aimed to study and illustrate the burden of GC and to compare rates by sex and age groups at the national level in Iran from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We extracted data related to the 1990-2017 period from the GBD study. To report the burden of GC, we used disability adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates in different sex and age groups in Iran during the 1990-2017 period. Decomposition analysis was also performed to evaluate the roots change in incident cases. RESULTS: At a national level, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) in 2017 were 22.9 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 22.1-23.9), 14.6 (14.1-15.2), 14.9 (14.4-15.4), and 296.8 (286.3-308.7) per 100,000 population, respectively. Over the 1990-2017 period, the average annual percent changes in all of the studied age-standardized rates were negative. Moreover, the male to female sex ratios of all estimates were greater than one. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and mortality rate slowly began to increase at the age of 50 and reached its highest level among people aged 80 years and over. CONCLUSION: The GC age-standardized rates revealed a downward trend from 1990 to 2017. The current study provides comprehensive knowledge about the GC burden in Iran. Therefore, it can help the appropriate allocation of resources for GC to expand preventive programs by reducing exposure to risk factors and Helicobacter pylori infection and by recommending increased consumption of fruits and vegetables. Also, expanding GC screening programs with laboratory tests or endoscopy can be an important step towards the reduction of the GC burden.

National and provincial population-based incidence and mortality of skin cancer in Iran; 1990-2016.

PURPOSE: To estimate the national and provincial estimates of incidence, mortality and burden of skin cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: The data for incidence and mortality rates were collected from the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases (NASBOD) project. We employed a two-stage spatiotemporal model to estimate cancer incidence based on sex, age, province and year. The national and subnational age and gender specific trends were calculated from 1990 to 2016. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was considered as an indicator of cancer care quality. RESULTS: At the national level, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of skin cancer decreased 1.29 times, from 23.6 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 17.1-31.1) per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 18.2 (95% UI, 15.8-20.6) in 2016; a similar trend was seen in both males and females. The highest ASIR was seen in 2000. National estimates of the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) steadily decreased from 2.8 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.9-4.1) in 1990 to 0.2 (95% UI, 0.1-0.3) per 100 000 persons in 2015. The MIR decreased continuously from 1990 to 2015 in all provinces and among both genders. The age standardized rate of years of life lost also decreased 8.7 times, from 30.1 (95% UI, 20.2-45.1) in 1990 to 3.5 (95% UI, 2.3-5.3) in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: During the study period, skin cancer ASIR, ASMR and burden steadily decreased among the Iranian population. The declining MIR for all provinces from 1990 to 2015 was a proxy of early detection and high-quality medical care for skin cancer in Iran. These results can be beneficial to policymakers and health planners to make correct decisions and determine proper resource allocation.

Birth seasonality in rural areas of Iran, analysis of 5,536,262 births from 1992 to 2007.

PURPOSE: We conducted this study to investigate birth seasonality in rural parts of Iran. METHODS: In this study, patterns of 5,536,262 live births in rural parts of Iran between 1992 and 2007 were studied. Information about birth numbers, environmental factors, and sociocultural status of participants was obtained from previous works. Visually inspecting the seasonal variation of birth, studying its trend using autocorrelation analysis, examining the trend of birth seasonality using the seasonality coefficient, a newly introduced index, studying correlations between birth seasonality and possible associated factors, and analyzing associations between these variables and birth seasonality using multiple regression model were performed in this study. RESULTS: In this study, we showed birth seasonality in rural parts of Iran, with the highest births in the first two seasons, winter and spring, mostly before the year of 2002. Latitude and mean temperature of districts, wealth status of families, education of women, and mothers' ages were associated with birth seasonality. However, latitude, temperature, and mothers' ages lost their associations after adjusting for sociocultural factors in the regression model. CONCLUSIONS: Birth numbers in rural areas of Iran follow a rhythmic seasonal pattern; however, the ordering of seasons changes in the last years of the study period.

Mortality Attributable to Excess Body Mass Index in Iran: Implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment Methodology.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity continues to rise worldwide with alarming rates in most of the world countries. Our aim was to compare the mortality of fatal disease attributable to excess body mass index (BMI) in Iran in 2005 and 2011. METHODS: Using standards implementation comparative risk assessment methodology, we estimated mortality attributable to excess BMI in Iranian adults of 25-65 years old, at the national and sub-national levels for 9 attributable outcomes including; ischemic heart diseases (IHDs), stroke, hypertensive heart diseases, diabetes mellitus (DM), colon cancer, cancer of the body of the uterus, breast cancer, kidney cancer, and pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: In 2011, in adults of 25-65 years old, at the national level, excess BMI was responsible for 39.5% of total deaths that were attributed to 9 BMI paired outcomes. From them, 55.0% were males. The highest mortality was attributed to IHD (55.7%) which was followed by stroke (19.3%), and DM (12.0%). Based on the population attributed fractions estimations of 2011, except for colon cancer, the remaining 6 common outcomes were higher for women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the priority of the problem, there is currently no comprehensive program to prevention or control obesity in Iran. The present results show a growing need to comprehensive implications for national and sub-national health policies and interventional programs in Iran.

Burden Assessment of Thyroid cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2010: Lessons Obtained from Global Burden of Disease Report 2010.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid tumors are generally regarded as rare malignancies. Nowadays, however, their global incidence is growing continuously partially due to western life style and utilization of more sensitive methods of early detection. It is approximately three times more prevalent in females than in males. Most cases of thyroid cancer are asymptomatic nodules or just have local cervical symptoms or adenopathy in early stages. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases report 2010 study (released 3/2013) profited from 100 collaborators worldwide and used a vast network of data on health outcomes, vital registries, and population surveys. It shared many of the Global Burden of Diseases 1990 principal databases such as all available data on injuries, diseases, risk factors, as well as comparable metrics, and used different scientific approved methods to estimate important health status data like: death rate, life expectancy, healthy adjusted life expectancy, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of living lost due to premature death and years of life with disabilities. RESULTS: DALY as thyroid cancer burden per 100,000 Iranian populations had increased by about 14% during 1990 to 2010 in all ages; from 6.1 (95% UI 4.2-9.74) years in 1990 to 6.95 (95% UI 5.06-9.18) years in 2010 in both sex. The 2010 peak age-group was estimated at 45-49 years in males and 40-45 years in females.