Adapting Economic Evaluation Methods to Shifting Global Health Priorities: Assessing the Value of Health System Inputs.

OBJECTIVES: We highlight the importance of undertaking value assessments for health system inputs if allocative efficiency is to be achieve with health sector resources, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries. However, methodological challenges complicated the application of current economic evaluation techniques to health system input investments. METHODS: We undertake a review of the literature to examine how assessments of investments in health system inputs have been considered to date, highlighting several studies that have suggested ways to address the methodological issues. Additionally, we surveyed how empirical economic evaluations of health system inputs have approached these issues. Finally, we highlight the steps required to move toward a comprehensive standardized framework for undertaking economic evaluations to make value assessments for investments in health systems. RESULTS: Although the methodological challenges have been illustrated, a comprehensive framework for value assessments of health system inputs, guiding the evidence required, does not exist. The applied literature of economic evaluations of health system inputs has largely ignored the issues, likely resulting in inaccurate assessments of cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of health sector budgets are spent on health system inputs, facilitating the provision of healthcare interventions. Although economic evaluation methods are a key component in priority setting for healthcare interventions, such methods are less commonly applied to decision making for investments in health system inputs. Given the growing agenda for investments in health systems, a framework will be increasingly required to guide governments and development partners in prioritizing investments in scarce health sector budgets.

Revision of Malawi's Health Benefits Package: A Critical Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation.

OBJECTIVES: Health benefits packages (HBPs), which define specific health services that can be offered for free or at a reduced cost to fit within public revenues, have been recommended for over 30 years to maximize population health in resource-limited settings. However, there remain gaps in defining and operationalizing HBPs. We propose a combination of design and prioritization methods along with practical strategies to improve the implementation of future iterations of the HBP in Malawi. METHODS: For HBP development for Malawi's Third Health Sector Strategic Plan, we combined cost-effectiveness analysis with a quantitative, consultative multicriteria decision analysis. Throughout the process of development, we documented challenges and opportunities to improve HBP design and application. RESULTS: The primary and secondary HBP included 115 interventions. However, the definition of an HBP is just one step toward focusing limited resources, with functional operationalization as the most critical component. Full implementation of previous HBPs has been limited by challenges in aid coordination with the misalignment of nonfungible vertical donor funding for the HBP without accounting for the complexity and interconnectedness of the health system. Opportunities for improved application include creation of a complementary minimum health service package to guide overall resource inputs through an integrative approach. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that expanded participatory HBP methods that consider value, equity, and social considerations, along with a shift to providing integrated health service packages at all levels of care, will improve the efficiency of using scarce resources along the journey to universal health coverage.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

Supporting the revision of the health benefits package in Uganda: A constrained optimisation approach.

This study demonstrates how the linear constrained optimization approach can be used to design a health benefits package (HBP) which maximises the net disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted given the health system constraints faced by a country, and how the approach can help assess the marginal value of relaxing health system constraints. In the analysis performed for Uganda, 45 interventions were included in the HBP in the base scenario, resulting in a total of 26.7 million net DALYs averted. When task shifting of pharmacists' and nutrition officers' tasks to nurses is allowed, 73 interventions were included in the HBP resulting in a total of 32 million net DALYs averted (a 20% increase). Further, investing only $58 towards hiring additional nutrition officers' time could avert one net DALY; this increased to $60 and $64 for pharmacists and nurses respectively, and $100,000 for expanding the consumable budget, since human resources present the main constraint to the system.

Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates.

BACKGROUND: A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, including delivery costs), given the current estimates of incidence and population at risk, is higher than $5 for 25-30% of the countries considered, with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, being $5.7-6 [$0.3 - $34.5], and total demand of over 560 million courses. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay could make a vaccine for leishmaniasis commercially attractive to potential manufacturers. The methodology used can be equally applied to other technology developments targeting health in developing countries.

Health Sector Resource Mapping in Malawi: Sharing the Collection and Use of Budget Data for Evidence-Based Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, the Ministry of Health in Malawi developed and institutionalized a resource-tracking process, known as resource mapping (RM), to collect information on planned funding flows across the health sector to support resource allocation and mobilization decisions. We analyze the RM process and tools and describe key uses of the data for health financing decision making to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). METHODS: We applied a case study approach, written as a collaboration between policy makers who have led the RM process in Malawi and the implementation team who have developed tools, collected data, and reported results over the period. It draws on our experiences in conducting RM in Malawi to document the RM process and data, key uses of data, implementation challenges, and lessons learned. We conducted a gray literature review to understand rounds of RM in which we did not participate. Finally, we conducted a search of published literature to situate our work in the international health resource-tracking literature. RESULTS: The RM exercise in Malawi is iteratively designed around the needs of the end users and policy priorities of the government, which in turn drives institutionalization of the exercise. We describe 4 ways in which RM data has been used, including national and district planning and budgeting; prioritization and coordination of existing funds by estimating resource availability; mobilization of new resources by conducting financial gap analysis against costed national strategic plans; and generation of evidence to support the national response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. DISCUSSION: To achieve UHC goals in Malawi, RM has equipped the government and development partners with critical data used for resource mobilization and coordination decisions. Lessons learned from RM in Malawi may be applicable to other countries starting or refining their own health resource-tracking exercise.

Allocating resources to support universal health coverage: development of a geographical funding formula in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Universal health coverage (UHC) requires that local health sector institutions-such as local authorities-are properly funded to fulfil their service delivery commitments. In this study, we examine how formula funding can align sub-national resource allocations with national priorities. This is illustrated by outlining alternative options for using mathematical formula to guide the allocation of national drug and service delivery budgets to district councils in Malawi in 2018/2019. METHODS: We use demographic, epidemiological and health sector budget data with information on implementation constraints to construct three variant allocation formulae. The first gives an equal per capita allocation to each district, and is included as a baseline to compare alternatives. The second allocates funds to districts using estimates of the resources required to provide Malawi's essential health package of priority cost-effective interventions to the full population in need of each intervention. The third adjusts these estimates to reflect a practicable level of attainable coverage for each intervention, based on the current configurations of health services and demand for interventions. FINDINGS: Compared with current district allocations, not underpinned by an explicit formula, the formulae presented in this study suggest sizeable shifts in the allocations received by many districts. In some cases, the magnitude of these shifts exceed 50% reductions or doubling of district budgets. The large shifts illustrate inequities in the current system of budget allocation and the potential improvements possible. CONCLUSION: The use of mathematical formulae can guide the efficient and equitable allocation of healthcare funds to local health authorities. The formulae developed were facilitated by the existence of an explicit package of priority interventions. The approach can be replicated in wide range of countries seeking to achieve UHC.

Allocating resources to support universal health coverage: policy processes and implementation in Malawi.

Optimising the use of limited health resources in low-income and middle-income countries towards the maximisation of health outcomes requires efficient distribution of resources across health services and geographical areas. While technical research exists on how efficiencies can be achieved in resource allocation, there is limited guidance on the policy processes required to convert these technical inputs into practicable solutions. In this article, we discuss Malawi's experience in 2019 of revising its resource allocation formula (RAF) for the geographical distribution of the government health sector budget to the decentralised units in-charge of delivering primary and secondary healthcare. The policy process to revise the RAF in Malawi was initiated by district assemblies seeking a more equitable distribution of government resources, with the Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP) leading the technical and deliberative work. This article discusses all the steps undertaken by MOHP, Malawi to date as well as the steps necessary looking forward to legally establish the newly developed RAF and to start implementing it. We highlight the practical and political considerations in ensuring the acceptability and implementation feasibility of a revised RAF. It is hoped that this discussion will serve as guidance to other countries undergoing a revision of their resource allocation frameworks.