The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the question of whether mandated interventions have similar economic and public health effects as spontaneous behavioural change remains unresolved. Addressing this question, and understanding differential effects across socioeconomic groups, requires building quantitative and fine-grained mechanistic models. Here we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations and income levels. We validate the model by reproducing key outcomes of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the New York metropolitan area. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption due to fear of infection. In counterfactual experiments, we show that a similar trade-off between epidemic and economic outcomes exists both when individuals change their behaviour due to fear of infection and when non-pharmaceutical interventions are imposed. Low-income workers, who perform in-person occupations in customer-facing industries, face the strongest trade-off.

Sustainable nutrition and the case of vegetable oils to match present and future dietary needs.

Sustainable nutrition represents a formidable challenge for providing people with healthy, nutritious and affordable food, while reducing waste and impacts on the environment. Acknowledging the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of the food system, this article addresses the main issues related to sustainability in nutrition, existing scientific data and advances in research and related methodologies. Vegetable oils are epitomized as a case study in order to figure out the challenges inherent to sustainable nutrition. Vegetable oils crucially provide people with an affordable source of energy and are essential ingredients of a healthy diet, but entail varying social and environmental costs and benefits. Accordingly, the productive and socioeconomic context encompassing vegetable oils requires interdisciplinary research based on appropriate analyses of big data in populations undergoing emerging behavioral and environmental pressures. Since oils represent a major and growing source of energy at a global level, their role in sustainable nutrition should be considered beyond pure nutritional facts, at the light of soil preservation, local resources and human needs in terms of health, employment and socio-economic development.

Disease and information spreading at different speeds in multiplex networks.

Nowadays, one of the challenges we face when carrying out modeling of epidemic spreading is to develop methods to control disease transmission. In this article we study how the spreading of knowledge of a disease affects the propagation of that disease in a population of interacting individuals. For that, we analyze the interaction between two different processes on multiplex networks: the propagation of an epidemic using the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics and the dissemination of information about the disease-and its prevention methods-using the unaware-aware-unaware dynamics, so that informed individuals are less likely to be infected. Unlike previous related models where disease and information spread at the same time scale, we introduce here a parameter that controls the relative speed between the propagation of the two processes. We study the behavior of this model using a mean-field approach that gives results in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations on homogeneous complex networks. We find that increasing the rate of information dissemination reduces the disease prevalence, as one may expect. However, increasing the speed of the information process as compared to that of the epidemic process has the counterintuitive effect of increasing the disease prevalence. This result opens an interesting discussion about the effects of information spreading on disease propagation.

A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China.

Two months after it was firstly reported, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 spread worldwide. However, the vast majority of reported infections until February occurred in China. To assess the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China, we have implemented an epidemic metapopulation model that is fed with mobility data corresponding to 2019 and 2020. This allows to compare two radically different scenarios, one with no travel restrictions and another in which mobility is reduced by a travel ban. Our findings indicate that i) travel restrictions might be an effective measure in the short term, however, ii) they are ineffective when it comes to completely eliminate the disease. The latter is due to the impossibility of removing the risk of seeding the disease to other regions. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of developing more realistic models of behavioral changes when a disease outbreak is unfolding.

Replicator population dynamics of group interactions: Broken symmetry, thresholds for metastability, and macroscopic behavior.

The effect of group structure on cooperative behavior is not well understood. In this paper, we study the dynamics of a public goods game involving n-agent interactions. In the proposed setup, the population is organized into groups. We associate the individual fitness to group performance, while the evolutionary dynamics takes place globally. We derive analytical expressions and show that the model exhibits several fixed points, including the symmetric homogeneous states of total cooperation and total defection, which are unstable and stable, respectively. Interestingly, even if both individual and group levels are organized as well-mixed populations, the dynamics displays intermediate values of cooperation under the replicator dynamics. Namely, as soon as one of the groups, at least, is fully cooperative, intermediary fixed points appear for the rest of the groups. In addition to the analytical approach, we have performed numerical simulations that reproduce the internal fixed points obtained theoretically, showing coexisting intermediate levels of cooperation. Potential implications of these results in terms of group selection and the role of social norms are also discussed.

Epidemic spreading with awareness and different timescales in multiplex networks.

One of the major issues in theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to stop a disease from spreading or to reduce its burden, as individuals aware of the presence of a disease can take measures to reduce their exposure to contagion. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for the spread of diseases with awareness in complex networks. Unlike previous models, the information is propagated following a generalized Maki-Thompson rumor model. Flexibility on the timescale between information and disease spreading is also included. We verify that the velocity characterizing the diffusion of information awareness greatly influences the disease prevalence. We also show that a reduction in the fraction of unaware individuals does not always imply a decrease of the prevalence, as the relative timescale between disease and awareness spreading plays a crucial role in the systems' dynamics. This result is shown to be independent of the network topology. We finally calculate the epidemic threshold of our model, and show that it does not depend on the relative timescale. Our results provide a new view on how information influence disease spreading and can be used for the development of more efficient methods for disease control.

Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.

Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two "generous clusters" and the richest into a "greedy cluster". Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.

Data-driven model for the assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in evolving demographic structures.

In the case of tuberculosis (TB), the capabilities of epidemic models to produce quantitatively robust forecasts are limited by multiple hindrances. Among these, understanding the complex relationship between disease epidemiology and populations' age structure has been highlighted as one of the most relevant. TB dynamics depends on age in multiple ways, some of which are traditionally simplified in the literature. That is the case of the heterogeneities in contact intensity among different age strata that are common to all airborne diseases, but still typically neglected in the TB case. Furthermore, while demographic structures of many countries are rapidly aging, demographic dynamics are pervasively ignored when modeling TB spreading. In this work, we present a TB transmission model that incorporates country-specific demographic prospects and empirical contact data around a data-driven description of TB dynamics. Using our model, we find that the inclusion of demographic dynamics is followed by an increase in the burden levels predicted for the next decades in the areas of the world that are most hit by the disease today. Similarly, we show that considering realistic patterns of contacts among individuals in different age strata reshapes the transmission patterns reproduced by the models, a result with potential implications for the design of age-focused epidemiological interventions.

Heterogeneous resource allocation can change social hierarchy in public goods games.

Public goods games (PGGs) represent one of the most useful tools to study group interactions. However, even if they could provide an explanation for the emergence and stability of cooperation in modern societies, they are not able to reproduce some key features observed in social and economical interactions. The typical shape of wealth distribution-known as Pareto Law-and the microscopic organization of wealth production are two of them. Here, we introduce a modification to the classical formulation of PGGs that allows for the emergence of both of these features from first principles. Unlike traditional PGGs, where players contribute equally to all the games in which they participate, we allow individuals to redistribute their contribution according to what they earned in previous rounds. Results from numerical simulations show that not only a Pareto distribution for the pay-offs naturally emerges but also that if players do not invest enough in one round they can act as defectors even if they are formally cooperators. Our results not only give an explanation for wealth heterogeneity observed in real data but also point to a conceptual change on cooperation in collective dilemmas.

Nonperturbative heterogeneous mean-field approach to epidemic spreading in complex networks.

Since roughly a decade ago, network science has focused among others on the problem of how the spreading of diseases depends on structural patterns. Here, we contribute to further advance our understanding of epidemic spreading processes by proposing a nonperturbative formulation of the heterogeneous mean-field approach that has been commonly used in the physics literature to deal with this kind of spreading phenomena. The nonperturbative equations we propose have no assumption about the proximity of the system to the epidemic threshold, nor any linear approximation of the dynamics. In particular, we first develop a probabilistic description at the node level of the epidemic propagation for the so-called susceptible-infected-susceptible family of models, and after we derive the corresponding heterogeneous mean-field approach. We propose to use the full extension of the approach instead of pruning the expansion to first order, which leads to a nonperturbative formulation that can be solved by fixed-point iteration, and used with reliability far away from the epidemic threshold to assess the prevalence of the epidemics. Our results are in close agreement with Monte Carlo simulations, thus enhancing the predictive power of the classical heterogeneous mean-field approach, while providing a more effective framework in terms of computational time.