Social dilemmas of sociality due to beneficial and costly contagion.

Levels of sociality in nature vary widely. Some species are solitary; others live in family groups; some form complex multi-family societies. Increased levels of social interaction can allow for the spread of useful innovations and beneficial information, but can also facilitate the spread of harmful contagions, such as infectious diseases. It is natural to assume that these contagion processes shape the evolution of complex social systems, but an explicit account of the dynamics of sociality under selection pressure imposed by contagion remains elusive. We consider a model for the evolution of sociality strategies in the presence of both a beneficial and costly contagion. We study the dynamics of this model at three timescales: using a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model to describe contagion spread for given sociality strategies, a replicator equation to study the changing fractions of two different levels of sociality, and an adaptive dynamics approach to study the long-time evolution of the population level of sociality. For a wide range of assumptions about the benefits and costs of infection, we identify a social dilemma: the evolutionarily-stable sociality strategy (ESS) is distinct from the collective optimum-the level of sociality that would be best for all individuals. In particular, the ESS level of social interaction is greater (respectively less) than the social optimum when the good contagion spreads more (respectively less) readily than the bad contagion. Our results shed light on how contagion shapes the evolution of social interaction, but reveals that evolution may not necessarily lead populations to social structures that are good for any or all.

Improving Quality of Carotid Interventions: Identifying Hospital-Level Structural Factors that can Improve Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: "Structural factors" relating to organization of hospitals may affect procedural outcomes. This study's aim was to clarify associations between structural factors and outcomes after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid endarterectomy stenting (CAS). METHODS: A systematic review of studies published in English since 2005 was conducted. Structural factors assessed were as follows: population size served by the vascular department; number of hospital beds; availability of dedicated vascular beds; established clinical pathways; surgical intensive care unit (SICU) size; and specialty of surgeon/interventionalist. Primary outcomes were as follows: mortality; stroke; cardiac complications; length of hospital stay (LOS); and cost. RESULTS: There were 11 studies (n = 95,100 patients) included in this systematic review. For CEA, reduced mortality (P < 0.0001) and stroke rates (P = 0.001) were associated with vascular departments serving >75,000 people. Larger hospitals were associated with lower mortality, stroke rate, and cardiac events, compared with smaller hospitals (less than 130 beds). Provision of vascular beds after CEA was associated with lower mortality (P = 0.0008) and fewer cardiac events (P = 0.03). Adherence to established clinical pathways was associated with reduced stroke and cardiac event rates while reducing CEA costs. Large SICUs (≥7 beds) and dedicated intensivists were associated with decreased mortality after CEA while a large SICU was associated with reduced stroke rate (P = 0.001). Vascular surgeons performing CEA were associated with lower stroke rates and shorter LOS (P = 0.0001) than other specialists. CAS outcomes were not influenced by specialty but costless when performed by vascular surgeons (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Structural factors affect CEA outcomes, but data on CAS were limited. These findings may inform reconfiguration of vascular services, reducing risks and costs associated with carotid interventions.

Editor's Choice - Metformin Prescription is Associated with a Reduction in the Combined Incidence of Surgical Repair and Rupture Related Mortality in Patients with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

OBJECTIVES: Currently there is no drug therapy for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and most previous investigations have focused on imaging rather than clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess whether AAA related clinical events were lower in patients prescribed metformin. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort observational study performed in three cities in Australia, which was designed to study risk factors for clinical events not simply to focus on metformin. Patients with an asymptomatic unrepaired AAA of any diameter ≥30 mm were recruited from hospital outpatient clinics and surveillance programs run at four centres. The main outcome was the requirement for AAA repair or AAA related mortality (AAA events). The association between metformin prescription and AAA events was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard analysis. RESULTS: Patients (1,080) with a mean (SD) initial AAA diameter of 46.1 (11.3) mm were followed for a mean (SD) of 2.5 (3.1) years until an AAA event (n = 454), death (n = 176), loss to follow up (n = 128), or completion of current follow up (n = 322). Patients with diabetes who were prescribed metformin (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.93), but not patients with diabetes who were not prescribed metformin (adjusted HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.83-1.59), had a lower incidence of AAA events compared with those without diabetes. Findings were similar in sensitivity analyses restricted to patients with an initial AAA diameter ≤50 mm and patients with a minimum follow up of six months before an AAA event. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that clinically important AAA events may be reduced in patients with diabetes who are prescribed metformin, but not those with diabetes receiving other treatments. A randomised controlled trial is needed to definitively test whether metformin reduces AAA related clinical events in patients with small AAAs who do not have diabetes.