Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Economic benefits of blast-resistant biofortified wheat in Bangladesh: The case of BARI Gom 33.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5-8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019-20 and increasing to 30% by 2027-28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029-30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23-1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.

Averting wheat blast by implementing a 'wheat holiday': In search of alternative crops in West Bengal, India.

The emergence of wheat-blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. A potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India's overall food security as wheat is its second most important staple food crop. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology, enhancing the prospects of the disease entering India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a 'wheat holiday' policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for at least two years. The present scoping study assesses the potential economic feasibility of alternative crops to wheat. Of the ten crops considered, maize, gram (chickpea), urad (black gram), rapeseed and mustard, and potatoes are found to be potentially feasible alternative crops. Any crop substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia.

Consumption of food away from home in Bangladesh: Do rich households spend more?

While consumption of food away from home (FAFH) is an established phenomenon among households in the developed countries, FAFH is a growing phenomenon in many middle-income and rapidly growing developing countries. Although, studies are available on the factors affecting consumption of FAFH in developed countries, there is a paucity of such studies in developing countries. This study examines households' choice of and expenditures on FAFH. We used information from Bangladeshi households and applied a double-hurdle regression model estimation procedure. Findings show that, in general, rich households are spending proportionately less on FAFH and, over time, the trend is continuing. Although households with female members who work in the non-farm sector are more likely to consume FAFH, educated household heads and spouses, and particularly urban households are less likely to consume and spend on FAFH. As the problem of food adulteration by dishonest sellers is rampant in Bangladesh, perhaps it discourages rich, urban and households headed by educated heads and spouses to consume and spend more on FAFH. Based on the findings, some points of interventions are also prescribed in this study.