The 30 Years of Shifting in The Indonesian Cardiovascular Burden-Analysis of The Global Burden of Disease Study.

IMPORTANCE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Compared with disease burden rates in 1990, significant reductions in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) burden rates for CVD have been recorded. However, general DALYs rates have not changed in Indonesia in the past 30 years. Thus, assessing Indonesian CVD burdens will be an essential first step in determining primary disease interventions. OBJECTIVE: To determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2019 in Indonesia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective observational study was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, provided by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), to analyze trends in the burden of CVD, including mortality, morbidity, and prevalence characteristics of 12 underlying CVDs. EXPOSURES: Residence in Indonesia. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Mortality, incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs of CVD. RESULTS: CVD deaths have doubled from 278 million in 1990 to 651 million in 2019. All CVDs recorded increased death rates, except for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) (- 69%) and congenital heart disease (CHD) (- 37%). Based on underlying diseases, stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) are still the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Indonesia, whereas stroke and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are the most prevalent CVDs. Indonesia has the second worst CVD DALYs rates compared to ASEAN countries after Laos. At provincial levels, the highest CVD DALY rates were recorded in Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, and Yogyakarta. In terms of DALYs rate changes, they were recorded in West Nusa Tenggara (24%), South Kalimantan (18%), and Central Java (11%). Regarding sex, only RHD, and PAD burdens were dominated by females. CONCLUSIONS: CVD mortality, morbidity, and prevalence rates increased in Indonesia from 1990 to 2019, especially for stroke and ischemic heart disease. The burden is exceptionally high, even when compared to other Southeast Asian countries and the global downward trend. GBD has many limitations. However, these data could provide policymakers with a broad view of CVD conditions in Indonesia.

Explaining the increase of incidence and mortality from cardiovascular disease in Indonesia: A global burden of disease study analysis (2000-2019).

BACKGROUND: In the last two decades, there has been a discernible shift in the distribution of mortality attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD) between developing and developed nations; in developed nations, the percentage of deaths caused by CVD decreased from 48% in 1990 to 43% in 2010, while in developing nations, they increased from 18% to 25%. In Indonesia, CVD death has increased substantially and remained elevated in the last ten years. Current behavioral and metabolic risk factors, including hyperglycemia, obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and smoking, enhance the risk of CVD mortality, according to several studies. AIMS: We undertook a study to determine whether the increase in mortality and incidence of CVD can be attributed to changes in the most common metabolic and behavioral risk factors from 2000 to 2019 across 34 Indonesian provinces. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 34 province for CVD incidence and mortality and data on changes in metabolic and behavioural risk factors between 2000 and 2019 in Indonesia were obtained from the Global Burden study (GBD) by The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). A statistical model was applied to calculate the fatalities attributable to the risk factors change using Population attributable fractions (PAF) and baseline year death numbers. Furthermore, we ran multivariate regressions on Summary Exposure Value of risk factors associated with the increasing mortality, incidence rates in a lag year analysis. R software used to measure heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors with coeftest and coefci. Covariates were added to adjusted models, including the Socio-demographic Index, Primary health care facilities coverage, and GDP per capita. RESULTS: The age-standardized mortality rate for CVD from 2000 to 2019 in Indonesia, increased from 356.05 to 412.46 deaths per 100,000 population among men and decreased from 357.52 to 354.07 deaths per 100,000 population among women, resulting in an increase of 270.928 per 100,0000 inhabitants of CVD deaths. In the same period, there was an increase in exposure to risk factors such as obesity by +9%, smoking by +1%, dyslipidemia by +1.3%, hyperglycemia by +2%, and hypertension by +1.2%. During this time span, an additional 14,517 men and 17,917 women died from CVD, which was attributable to higher obesity exposure. We apply multivariate regression with province-fixed and year-fixed analysis and find strong correlation between hyperglycemia in women (6; 95%CI 0 to 12, death per 1-point increase in hyperglycemia exposure) with an increasing death rate in ischemic heart disease. We also performed a year lag analysis and discovered a robust association between high low density lipoprotein (LDL) levels in men and women and the growing incidence of ischemic heart disease. The association between a 10-year lag of high LDL and the incidence of ischemic heart disease was five times stronger than that observed for other risk factors, particularly in men (5; 95%CI 2 to 8, incidence per 1-point increase in high LDL exposure). CONCLUSION: Hyperglycemia in women is an important risk factor associated with increasing mortality due to Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) in Indonesia This study also revealed that the presence of high LDL in both men and women were associated with an increase incidence of IHD that manifested several years subsequent to exposure to the risk factor. Additionally, the highest cardiovascular death portion were attributed to obesity. These findings suggest that policymakers should control high LDL and hyperglycemia 10 years earlier prior to the occurrence of IHD and employ personalized therapy to regulate associated risks.