Assessment of data intelligence algorithms in modeling daily reference evapotranspiration under input data limitation scenarios in semi-arid climatic condition.

Crop evapotranspiration is essential for planning and designing an efficient irrigation system. The present investigation assessed the capability of four machine learning algorithms, namely, XGBoost linear regression (XGBoost Linear), XGBoost Ensemble Tree, Polynomial Regression (Polynomial Regr), and Isotonic Regression (Isotonic Regr) in modeling daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at IARI, New Delhi. The models were developed considering full and limited dataset scenarios. The efficacy of the constructed models was assessed against the Penman-Monteith (PM56) model estimated daily ETo. Results revealed the under full and limited dataset conditions, XGBoost Ensemble Tree gave the best results for daily ETo modeling during the model training period, while in the testing period under scenarios S1(Tmax) and S2 (Tmax, and Tmin), the Isotonic Regr models yielded superior results over other models. In addition, the XGBoost Ensemble Tree models outperformed others for the rest of the input data scenarios. The XGBoost Ensemble Tree algorithms reported the best values of correlation coefficient (r), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Thus, we recommend applying the XGBoost Ensemble Tree algorithm for precisely modeling daily ETo in semi-arid climatic conditions.

The impact of user fees on health services utilization and infectious disease diagnoses in Neno District, Malawi: a longitudinal, quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: User fees have generally fallen out of favor across Africa, and they have been associated with reductions in access to healthcare. We examined the effects of the introduction and removal of user fees on outpatient attendances and new diagnoses of HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis in Neno District, Malawi where user fees were re-instated at three of 13 health centres in 2013 and subsequently removed at one of these in 2015. METHODS: We conducted two analyses. Firstly, an unadjusted comparison of outpatient visits and new diagnoses over three periods between July 2012 and October 2015: during the period with no user fees, at the re-introduction of user fees at four centres, and after the removal of user fees at one centre. Secondly, we estimated a linear model of the effect of user fees on the outcome of interest that controlled for unobserved health centre effects, monthly effects, and a linear time trend. RESULTS: The introduction of user fees was associated with a change in total attendances of -68 % [95 % CI: -89 %, -12 %], similar reductions were observed for new malaria and HIV diagnoses. The removal of user fees was associated with an increase in total attendances of 352 % [213 %, 554 %] with similar increases for malaria diagnoses. The results were not sensitive to control group or model specification. CONCLUSIONS: User fees for outpatient healthcare services present a barrier to patients accessing healthcare and reduce detection of serious infectious diseases.

The impact on utilities of differences in body weight among Canadian patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate utility values for hypothetical health states that describe differences in weight and quality of life associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) from Canadians with type 2 DM. The impact on utility values was examined separately for participants with a body mass index (BMI) of 18 to less than 25 kg/m(2) ('healthy'), 25 to less than 30 ('overweight'), and 30 or more ('obese'). METHODS: The health state descriptions were modified from a published diabetes utility study. Health states included a base-case type 2 DM health state (at participants' current weight), and six health states where the weight and attendant quality of life impact varied (base case ±3%, ±5%, and ±7% weight). Utilities were elicited using the time trade-off technique. Linear regression modeling was used to estimate the utility increment or decrement associated with a one unit difference in BMI. RESULTS: Among 96 participants, the mean age was 55 years and 51% were men. The mean BMI was 32 kg/m(2) and 84% wanted to lose weight. The mean (SD) utility for the base-case state was 0.911 (0.013). Mean utilities (utility decrements) were 0.907 (-0.004), 0.865 (-0.046) and 0.806 (-0.105) for the health states describing an increased weight of 3%, 5% and 7%, respectively; and 0.923 (+0.012), 0.940 (+0.029) and 0.949 (+0.038) for the health states describing a decreased weight of 3%, 5% and 7%, respectively. For every increase of 1 kg/m(2) BMI there was an associated decrease in utility of 0.0472 (95% CI: 0.0375, 0.0569) and for every decrease of 1 kg/m(2) BMI there was an associated increase in utility of 0.0171 (95% CI: 0.0103, 0.0238). CONCLUSIONS: The preferences of Canadian patients with type 2 DM for diabetes-related health states varied according to the weight, and quality of life impact, associated with that health state. Increased weight had a greater effect on utilities than decreased weight.

Economic risk factors for HIV infection among women in rural Haiti: implications for HIV prevention policies and programs in resource-poor settings.

AIMS: The goals of this study were to (1) estimate the prevalence of HIV infection among women accessing services at a women's health center in rural Haiti and (2) to identify economic risk factors for HIV infection in this population. METHODS: Women who accessed healthcare services at this center between June 1999 and December 2002 were recruited to participate. The analysis was based on data from a case-control study of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in rural Haiti. HIV prevalence in the study population was 4%. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, partner occupation was associated with HIV infection in women, with mechanic (OR 9.0, 95% CI 1.8-45) and market vendor (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-11) reflecting the strongest partner occupational risk factors. Partner's occupation as a farmer reduced the risk of infection in women by 60% (95% CI 0.14-1.1). Factors indicating low socioeconomic status (SES), such as food insecurity (OR 2.0, 95% CI 0.75-5.6) and using charcoal for cooking (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.72-3.8) suggested an association with HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Given pervasive gender inequality in Haiti, women's economic security often relies on their partners' income earning activities. Our findings show that although factors reflecting poverty are associated with HIV-positive status, stronger associations are observed for women whose partners indicated a more secure occupation (e.g., mechanic or market vendor). Policies and programs that expand access to education and economic opportunities for women and girls may have long-term implications for HIV prevention in Haiti and other resource-poor settings.

Identification of chlamydia and gonorrhoea among women in rural Haiti: maximising access to treatment in a resource poor setting.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk assessment algorithm that will increase the identification and treatment of women with cervical infection in rural Haiti. METHODS: Study participants were randomly selected from new patients who accessed services at a women's health clinic in rural Haiti between June 1999 and December 2002. This case-control study included women who tested positive for chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea based on the Gen-Probe PACE 2 laboratory test as cases. Controls were women who tested negative for both of these infections. RESULTS: Women from this area of rural Haiti had a limited level of education and lived in impoverished housing conditions. The sensitivity estimates of Haitian Ministry of Health and WHO algorithms for detecting chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea were generally low (ranging from 16.1% to 68.1%) in this population. Risk scores based on logistic regression models of local risk factors for chlamydia and gonorrhoea were developed and sensitivity estimates were higher for algorithms based on these risk scores (up to 98.8%); however, specificity was compromised. CONCLUSIONS: A risk assessment algorithm to identify women with chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea is more sensitive and less specific than the syndromic management approach advocated by WHO and adapted by the Haitian Ministry of Health. Using a risk assessment tool with high sensitivity based on local risk factors of cervical infection will maximise access to care, improve outcomes, and decrease morbidity in women who have cervical infection in rural Haiti.

Community-based treatment of advanced HIV disease: introducing DOT-HAART (directly observed therapy with highly active antiretroviral therapy).

In 2000, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) overtook tuberculosis (TB) as the world's leading infectious cause of adult deaths. In affluent countries, however, AIDS mortality has dropped sharply, largely because of the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Antiretroviral agents are not yet considered essential medications by international public health experts and are not widely used in the poor countries where human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) takes its greatest toll. Arguments against the use of HAART have mainly been based on the high cost of medications and the lack of the infrastructure necessary for using them wisely. We re- examine these arguments in the setting of rising AIDS mortality in developing countries and falling drug prices, and describe a small community-based treatment programme based on lessons gained in TB control. With the collaboration of Haitian community health workers experienced in the delivery of home-based and directly observed treatment for TB, an AIDS-prevention project was expanded to deliver HAART to a subset of HIV patients deemed most likely to benefit. The inclusion criteria and preliminary results are presented. We conclude that directly observed therapy (DOT) with HAART, "DOT-HAART", can be delivered effectively in poor settings if there is an uninterrupted supply of high-quality drugs.

Preliminary assessment of extrastriatal dopamine D-2 receptor binding in the rodent and nonhuman primate brains using the high affinity radioligand, 18F-fallypride.

We have identified the value of 18F-fallypride [(S)-N-[(1-allyl-2-pyrrolidinyl)methyl]-5-(3-[18F]fluoropropyl)-2, 3-dimethoxybenzamide], as a dopamine D-2 receptor radiotracer for the study of striatal and extrastriatal receptors. Fallypride exhibits high affinities for D-2 and D-3 subtypes and low affinity for D-4 (3H-spiperone IC50s: D-2 = 0.05 nM [rat striata], D-3 = 0.30 nM [SF9 cell lines, rat recombinant], and D-4 = 240 nM [CHO cell lines, human recombinant]). Biodistribution in the rat brain showed localization of 18F-fallypride in striata and extrastriatal regions such as the frontal cortex, parietal cortex, amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus, and hypothalamus. In vitro autoradiographic studies in sagittal slices of the rat brain showed localization of 18F-fallypride in striatal and several extrastriatal regions, including the medulla. Positron emission tomography (PET) experiments with 18F-fallypride in male rhesus monkeys were carried out in a PET VI scanner. In several PET experiments, apart from the specific binding seen in the striatum, specific binding of 18F-fallypride was also identified in extracellular regions (in a lower brain slice, possibly the thalamus). Specific binding in the extrastriata was, however, significantly lower compared with that observed in the striata of the monkeys (extrastriata/cerebellum = 2, striata/cerebellum = 10). Postmortem analysis of the monkey brain revealed significant 18F-fallypride binding in the striata, whereas binding was also observed in extrastriatal regions such as the thalamus, cortical areas, and brain stem.

Economic evaluation of ciprofloxacin compared with usual antibacterial care for the treatment of acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis in patients followed for 1 year.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a 1-year prospective economic evaluation of ciprofloxacin compared with usual antibacterial care (any antibacterial other than a quinolone) for the treatment of acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis (AECB) in adults presenting with a type I or type II AECB. DESIGN: Patients entered the study with an initial AECB and were randomised to the ciprofloxacin group or the usual care group. The following measurements were taken at the end of each AECB and every 3 months: resource utilisation, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, Nottingham Health Profile and Health Utilities Index (HUI). The following additional measurements were taken after each AECB: AECB-symptom days and willingness to pay to avoid the AECB. Economic evaluations were performed from the societal viewpoint and the viewpoint of a major third-party payer. Cost-effectiveness analysis was based on cost per AECB-symptom day averted; cost-utility analysis (CUA) was based on cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained using the HUI as the basis for calculating QALYs. Cost-benefit analysis was based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) data. SETTING: This was a study of outpatients enrolled from 46 family physicians and 2 respirologists in Ontario (29 sites) and Québec (19 sites), Canada, between November 1993 and June 1994. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: 240 adult male and female patients aged > or = 18 years with chronic bronchitis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: WTP data did not pass scope tests for reasonableness. Ciprofloxacin was more costly and provided better outcomes compared with usual antibacterial care. The base-case results are as follows (1994/1995 values): the incremental annual cost was 578 Canadian dollars ($Can) from the societal viewpoint and $Can840 for the third-party payer; the cost-effectiveness ratio per AECB-symptom day averted was $Can209 from the societal viewpoint and $Can304 for the third-party payer; the cost-utility ratio per QALY gained was $Can18,600 from the societal viewpoint and $Can27,000 for the third-party payer. According to Laupacis criteria, these CUA results are strong evidence in favour of adoption from the societal viewpoint and moderate evidence in favour from the viewpoint of the third-party payer. A subgroup analysis suggests that ciprofloxacin may be particularly cost effective, even 'win-win', in patients with more severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity analyses indicate that the results are relatively robust. Nevertheless, the statistical uncertainty in the results is sufficient that the findings cannot be accepted unequivocally. A further study with a larger sample size would be useful to confirm (or deny) the findings of this study.

A 1-year community-based health economic study of ciprofloxacin vs usual antibiotic treatment in acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis: the Canadian Ciprofloxacin Health Economic Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the costs, consequences, effectiveness, and safety of ciprofloxacin vs standard antibiotic care in patients with an initial acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis (AECB) as well as recurrent AECBs over a 1-year period. DESIGN: Randomized, multicenter, parallel-group, open-label study. SETTING: Outpatient general practice. PATIENTS: A total of 240 patients, 18 years or older with chronic bronchitis, with a history of frequent exacerbations (three or more in the past year) presenting with a type 1 or 2 AECB (two or more of increased dyspnea, increased sputum volume, or sputum purulence). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The assessment included AECB symptoms, antibiotics prescribed, concomitant medications, adverse events, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, outpatient resources such as diagnostic tests, procedures, and patient and caregiver out-of-pocket expenses. Patients completed the Nottingham Health Profile, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, and the Health Utilities Index. The parameters were recorded with each AECB and at regular quarterly intervals for 1 year. These variables were compared between the ciprofloxacin-treated group and the usual-care-treated group. RESULTS: Patients receiving ciprofloxacin experienced a median of two AECBs per patient compared to a median of three AECBs per patient receiving usual care. The mean annualized total number of AECB-symptom days was 42.9+/-2.8 in the ciprofloxacin arm compared to 45.6+/-3.0 days in the usual-care arm (p=0.50). The overall duration of the average AECB was 15.2+/-0.6 days for the ciprofloxacin arm compared to 16.3+/-0.6 days for the usual-care arm. Treatment with ciprofloxacin tended to accelerate the resolution of all AECBs compared to usual care (relative risk=1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91 to 1.58; p=0.19). Treatment assignment did not affect the interexacerbation period but a history of severe bronchitis, prolonged chronic bronchitis, and an increased number of AECBs in the past year were associated with shorter exacerbations-free periods. There was a slight, but not statistically significant, improvement in all quality of life measures with ciprofloxacin over usual care. The only factors predictive of hospitalization were duration of chronic bronchitis (odds ratio=4.6; 95% CI, 1.6, 13.0) and severity of chronic bronchitis (odds ratio=4.3; 95% CI, 0.8, 24.6). The incremental cost difference of $578 Canadian in favor of usual care was not significant (95% CI, -$778, $1,932). The cost for the ciprofloxacin arm over the usual care arm was $18,588 Canadian per quality-adjusted life year gained. When the simple base case analysis was expanded to examine the effect of risk stratification, the presence of moderate or severe bronchitis and at least four AECBs in the previous year changed the economic and clinical analysis to one favorable to ciprofloxacin with the ciprofloxacin-treated group having a better clinical outcome at lower cost ("win-win" scenario). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with ciprofloxacin tended to accelerate the resolution of all AECBs compared to usual care; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Further, usual care was found to be more reflective of best available care rather than usual first-line agents such as amoxicillin, tetracycline, or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole as originally expected. Despite the similar antimicrobial activities and broad-spectrum coverage of both ciprofloxacin and usual care, the trends in clinical outcomes and all quality of life measurements favor ciprofloxacin. In patients suffering from an AECB with a history of moderate to severe chronic bronchitis and at least four AECBs in the previous year, ciprofloxacin treatment offered substantial clinical and economic benefits. In these patients, ciprofloxacin may be the preferred first antimicrobial choice.

A comparison of the insulin tolerance/glucagon test with the short ACTH stimulation test in the assessment of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis in the early post-operative period after hypophysectomy.

OBJECTIVE: The insulin tolerance test (ITT) is the established reference test for assessing the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Various authorities, however, have suggested that the 250 microgram short ACTH stimulation test may be used to assess the HPA axis in place of the ITT in suspected hypopituitarism, although a number of other studies have suggested that the test may be unreliable in this setting. In this study, the ITT (or glucagon test) has been compared with the 250 microgram short ACTH stimulation test in patients with pituitary tumours pre-operatively and within 2 weeks of trans-sphenoidal hypophysectomy. DESIGN: An ITT, or a glucagon test when the ITT was contraindicated, and the 250 micrograms short ACTH stimulation test, were performed in all the patients before (an ITT in 18 and a glucagon test in three patients) and within 2 weeks after trans-sphenoidal hypophysectomy (an ITT in 16 and a glucagon test in five patients). PATIENTS: Twenty-one patients with pituitary disorders (15 with acromegaly, one with a prolactinoma and five with non-functioning tumours) were studied; four had a microadenoma, two a mesoadenoma and 15 a macroadenoma. MEASUREMENTS: Serum cortisol was measured by radioimmunoassay. A normal response was defined as a rise in serum cortisol to 580 nmol/l or above for all the tests. RESULTS: Before surgery, three of 18 patients (17%) had a discrepancy between the ITT and the 30 minute short ACTH stimulation test and one of three between the glucagon test and the 30 minute short ACTH stimulation test. Combined together, pre-operatively, four of 21 patients (19%) had discrepant results. In the early post-operative period, the discrepancy between ITT and the 30 minute short ACTH stimulation test was higher with four of 16 patients (25%) showing discordant results; one of the five patients tested had a discrepancy between the glucagon test and the 30 minute short ACTH stimulation test. On combining the tests, the post-operative discrepancy was five of 21 patients (24%). CONCLUSIONS: The 250 microgram short ACTH stimulation test produces discordant results from the ITT in a clinically significant proportion of affected patients when assessing the HPA axis, although the rate of discordance varies according to the criteria used for normality for both the tests. We suggest that the ITT should remain the preferred test for assessing ACTH secretory capacity compared with the standard 250 microgram short ACTH stimulation test, both in the preoperative and in the early post-trans-sphenoidal hypophysectomy period.