Health trends in Canada 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: Monitoring trends in key population health indicators is important for informing health policies. The aim of this study was to examine population health trends in Canada over the past 30 years in relation to other countries. METHODS: We used data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, life expectancy (LE), and child mortality for Canada and other countries between 1990 and 2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: Life expectancy, age-standardized YLL, and age-standardized DALYs all improved in Canada between 1990 and 2019, although the rate of improvement has leveled off since 2011. The top five causes of all-age DALYs in Canada in 2019 were neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental disorders. The greatest increases in all-age DALYs since 1990 were observed for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and sense organ disorders. Age-standardized DALYs declined for most conditions, except for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal disorders, which increased by 94.6%, 14.6%, and 7.3% respectively since 1990. Canada's world ranking for age-standardized DALYs declined from 9th place in 1990 to 24th in 2019. CONCLUSION: Canadians are healthier today than in 1990, but progress has slowed in Canada in recent years in comparison with other high-income countries. The growing burden of substance abuse, diabetes/chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal diseases will require continued action to improve population health.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: La surveillance des tendances des indicateurs clés de la santé de la population est importante pour éclairer les politiques de santé. Dans cette étude, nous avons examiné les tendances de la santé de la population au Canada au cours des 30 dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays. MéTHODES: Nous avons utilisé des données sur les années de vie ajustées en fonction de l'incapacité (DALY), les années de vie perdues (YLL), les années vécues avec un handicap, l'espérance de vie (LE) et la mortalité infantile pour le Canada et d'autres pays entre 1990 et 2019, fournies par l'Étude mondiale sur le fardeau de la maladie. RéSULTATS: L'espérance de vie, les YLL ajustées selon l'âge et les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont tous connu une amélioration au Canada entre 1990 et 2019, bien que le taux d'amélioration se soit stabilisé depuis 2011. Les cinq principales causes des DALY pour tous les âges au Canada en 2019 étaient les néoplasmes, les maladies cardiovasculaires, les affections musculosquelettiques, les affections neurologiques et les troubles mentaux. Les plus fortes augmentations des DALY pour tous les âges depuis 1990 ont été observées pour l'usage de substances, le diabète et les maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que les troubles des organes sensoriels. Les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont diminué pour la plupart des conditions, à l'exception de l'usage de substances, du diabète et des maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que des troubles musculosquelettiques, qui ont augmenté de 94,6 %, 14,6 % et 7,3 % respectivement depuis 1990. Le classement mondial du Canada pour les DALY ajustées selon l'âge est diminué de la 9ième place en 1990 à la 24ième place en 2019. CONCLUSION: Les Canadiens sont en meilleure santé aujourd'hui qu'en 1990, mais les progrès se sont ralentis ces dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays à revenu élevé. La croissance du fardeau lié à l'abus de substances, au diabète/maladies rénales chroniques et aux affections musculosquelettiques exigera des actions continues pour améliorer la santé de la population.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 µm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. METHODS: The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis. FINDINGS: The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher. INTERPRETATION: The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease due to amphetamines, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid use disorders in South America, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: South America's substance use profile, poverty, income inequality, and cocaine-supplier role make it a unique place for substance use research. This study investigated the burden of disease attributable to amphetamine use disorder, cannabis use disorder (CAD), cocaine use disorder, and opioid use disorder (OUD) in South America from 1990 to 2019, on the basis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: GBD 2019 estimated the incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of life lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to substance use disorders in each of the 12 South American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela). Data were modelled using standardised tools (ie, the Cause of Death Ensemble model, spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and disease modelling meta-regression) to generate estimates of each quantity of interest by sex, location, and year. The analysis included comparisons by sex and country, and against regional and global estimates. FINDINGS: In 2019, the highest amphetamine use disorder burden per 100 000 population in South America was in Peru (66 DALYs). CAD DALY rates per 100 000 in South America were stable between 1990 and 2019, except in Chile and Colombia, which had the highest rates in 2019 (19 DALYs for Chile and 18 DALYs for Colombia). OUD DALYs per 100 000 increased during the period in Brazil and Peru, which in 2019 had the highest rates in South America (82 DALYs for Brazil and 70 DALYs for Peru). In 2019, Brazil had the highest cocaine use disorder DALYs per 100 000 (45 DALYs), nearly double its rate in 1990. DALY rates were higher in males than females for each substance use disorder, except in Paraguay. The overall burden of substance use disorders was higher in males than in females, mainly because of cocaine use disorder and CAD, whereas for amphetamine use disorder, the difference between sexes was minimal, and for OUD there was no difference. For males and females, the highest rate of substance use disorders DALYs per 100 000 was for OUD except in Argentina (in males, 58 DALYs for cocaine use disorder vs 52 DALYs for OUD) and in Paraguay (in females, 77 for amphetamine use disorder vs 50 for OUD). CAD DALY rates were generally the lowest among the substance use disorders for males and females. Amphetamine use disorder YLD rates were reasonably stable throughout the period and were highest in Peru, Paraguay, and Uruguay (>40 YLD per 100 000). For CAD, YLD rates were stable in all countries except Chile and Colombia. Cocaine use disorder YLD rates per 100 000 for the top four countries (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil) increased from 1990 to 2010 (eg, from 19 to 33 in Brazil), but decreased between 2010 and 2019 (eg, from 36 to 31 in Chile). For OUD, YLD rates showed a slight increase in most countries apart from Brazil, which increased from 52 in 1990 to 80 in 2019 and was top among the countries. Amphetamine use disorder YLL rates per 100 000 were highest in Suriname and Peru during the period, although in Suriname it increased from 2·7 in 2010 to 3·2 in 2019, whereas in Peru it decreased from 2·1 to 1·7. The highest YLL rate for cocaine use disorder was in Brazil, which increased from 3·7 in 1990 to 18·1 in 2019. Between 2000 and 2019, Chile and Uruguay showed the highest OUD YLL rates (11·6 for Chile and 10·9 for Uruguay). A high incidence of CAD was found in Chile, Colombia, Guyana, and Suriname. There were high incidences of amphetamine use disorder in Paraguay, cocaine use disorder in Argentina, and OUD in Ecuador. A decrease in annual prevalence for substance use disorders during the period was observed in Venezuela (amphetamine use disorder, CAD, and OUD), Brazil (CAD and amphetamine use disorder), Colombia (amphetamine use disorder and cocaine use disorder), Peru (amphetamine use disorder and cocaine use disorder), Chile and Suriname (amphetamine use disorder), Uruguay (CAD), and Bolivia (OUD). Overall, the cocaine use disorder burden stabilised then decreased. OUD was less prevalent than other substance use disorders but its burden was the highest. INTERPRETATION: The decrease in the burden of cocaine use disorder probably reflects the success of national standardised treatment programmes. Programmes for amphetamine use disorder, CAD, and OUD management should be improved. We did not find an increase in CAD burden in Uruguay, the country with the highest degree of cannabis decriminalisation in the region. Countries in South America should improve monitoring of substance use disorders, including regular surveys to provide more accurate data on which to base policy decisions. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Progress towards the 2020 milestones of the end TB strategy in Cambodia: estimates of age and sex specific TB incidence and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cambodia was recently removed from the World Health Organization's (WHO's) top 30 high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries. However, Cambodia's TB burden remains substantial, and the country is on the WHO's new global TB watchlist. We aimed to examine the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal TB burden in Cambodia from 1990 to 2019, assessing progress towards the WHO End TB interim milestones, which aim to reduce TB incidence rate by 20% and TB deaths by 35% from 2015 to 2020. METHODS: We leveraged the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) analytical framework to compute age- and sex-specific TB mortality and incidence by HIV status in Cambodia. We enumerated TB mortality utilizing a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble modeling platform. We analyzed all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and TB cause-specific mortality, to produce internally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality using a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1). We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV coinfection attributable to the independent effects of alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 6500 (95% uncertainty interval 4830-8680) deaths due to all-form TB and 50.0 (43.8-57.8) thousand all-form TB incident cases in Cambodia. The corresponding age-standardized rates were 53.3 (39.9-69.4) per 100,000 population for mortality and 330.5 (289.0-378.6) per 100,000 population for incidence. From 2015 to 2019, the number of all-form TB deaths decreased by 11.8% (2.3-21.1), while the age-standardized all-form TB incidence rate decreased by 11.1% (6.3-15.6). Among individuals without HIV coinfection in 2019, alcohol use accounted for 28.1% (18.2-37.9) of TB deaths, smoking accounted for 27.0% (20.2-33.3), and diabetes accounted for 12.5% (7.1-19.0). Removing the combined effects of these risk factors would reduce all-form TB deaths by 54.2% (44.2-62.2). DISCUSSION: Despite significant progress in reducing TB morbidity and mortality since 1990, Cambodia is not on track to achieve the 2020 WHO End TB interim milestones. Existing programs in Cambodia can benefit from liaising with risk factor control initiatives to accelerate progress toward eliminating TB in Cambodia.

The Global Burden of Disease Study at 30 years.

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) began 30 years ago with the goal of providing timely, valid and relevant assessments of critical health outcomes. Over this period, the GBD has become progressively more granular. The latest iteration provides assessments of thousands of outcomes for diseases, injuries and risk factors in more than 200 countries and territories and at the subnational level in more than 20 countries. The GBD is now produced by an active collaboration of over 8,000 scientists and analysts from more than 150 countries. With each GBD iteration, the data, data processing and methods used for data synthesis have evolved, with the goal of enhancing transparency and comparability of measurements and communicating various sources of uncertainty. The GBD has many limitations, but it remains a dynamic, iterative and rigorous attempt to provide meaningful health measurement to a wide range of stakeholders.

Varied Health Spending Growth Across US States Was Associated With Incomes, Price Levels, And Medicaid Expansion, 2000-19.

Little is known about health care spending variation across the US for recent years. To estimate health spending by state and payer, we combined data from the government's State Health Expenditure Accounts, which have estimates through 2014, with other primary data on spending. In 2019 state-specific per person spending ranged from $7,250 to $14,500. After adjustment for inflation, annualized per person spending growth for each state ranged from 1.0 percent in Washington, D.C., to 4.2 percent in South Dakota between 2013 and 2019. The factors that explained the most variation across states were incomes (25.3 percent) and consumer prices (21.7 percent). Medicaid expansion was associated with increases in total spending per person, although the median of spending in expansion states showed slower growth in out-of-pocket spending than the median in nonexpansion states. Contemporary estimates of state health spending are valuable for tracking divergent expenditure trajectories in the US and assessing the associated factors.

Changes in life expectancy and disease burden in Norway, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Geographical differences in health outcomes are reported in many countries. Norway has led an active policy aiming for regional balance since the 1970s. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we examined regional differences in development and current state of health across Norwegian counties. METHODS: Data for life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Norway and its 11 counties from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from GBD 2019. County-specific contributors to changes in life expectancy were compared. Inequality in disease burden was examined by use of the Gini coefficient. FINDINGS: Life expectancy and HALE improved in all Norwegian counties from 1990 to 2019. Improvements in life expectancy and HALE were greatest in the two counties with the lowest values in 1990: Oslo, in which life expectancy and HALE increased from 71·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·4-72·4) and 63·0 years (60·5-65·4) in 1990 to 81·3 years (80·0-82·7) and 70·6 years (67·4-73·6) in 2019, respectively; and Troms og Finnmark, in which life expectancy and HALE increased from 71·9 years (71·5-72·4) and 63·5 years (60·9-65·6) in 1990 to 80·3 years (79·4-81·2) and 70·0 years (66·8-72·2) in 2019, respectively. Increased life expectancy was mainly due to reductions in cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and respiratory infections. No significant differences between the national YLD or DALY rates and the corresponding age-standardised rates were reported in any of the counties in 2019; however, Troms og Finnmark had a higher age-standardised YLL rate than the national rate (8394 per 100 000 [95% UI 7801-8944] vs 7536 per 100 000 [7391-7691]). Low inequality between counties was shown for life expectancy, HALE, all level-1 causes of DALYs, and exposure to level-1 risk factors. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 30 years, Norway has reduced inequality in disease burden between counties. However, inequalities still exist at a within-county level and along other sociodemographic gradients. Because of insufficient Norwegian primary data, there remains substantial uncertainty associated with regional estimates for non-fatal disease burden and exposure to risk factors. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research Council of Norway, and Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

Health Care Spending Effectiveness: Estimates Suggest That Spending Improved US Health From 1996 To 2016.

Health care spending effectiveness is the ratio of an increase in spending per case of illness or injury to an increase in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per case. We report US spending-effectiveness ratios, using comprehensive estimates of health care spending from the Disease Expenditure Project and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We decomposed changes over time to estimate spending per case and DALYs averted per case, controlling for changes in population size, age-sex structure, and incidence or prevalence of cases. Across all causes of health care spending and disease burden, median spending was US$114,339 per DALY averted between 1996 and 2016. Twelve of thirty-four causes with the highest spending or highest burden had median spending that was less than $100,000 per DALY averted. Using decomposition results, we calculated an outcome-adjusted health care price index by assigning a dollar value to DALYs averted per case. When we used $100,000 as the dollar value per DALY averted, prices increased by 4 percent more than the broader economy; when we used $150,000 per DALY averted, relative prices fell by 13 percent, meaning that much of the growth in health care spending over time has purchased health improvements.

Measuring contraceptive method mix, prevalence, and demand satisfied by age and marital status in 204 countries and territories, 1970-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019. METHODS: We used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. FINDINGS: In 2019, 162·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155·6-170·2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29·3% (27·9-30·6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27·2% (24·4-30·3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64·8% [62·9-66·7]) and 20-24 years (71·9% [68·9-74·2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43·2 million (95% UI 39·3-48·0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60. Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20·1 percentage points (95% UI 18·7-21·6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus caused an estimated 151,714 deaths from diarrhea among children under 5 in 2019. To reduce mortality, countries are considering adding rotavirus vaccination to their routine immunization program. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) to inform these decisions are not available in every setting, and where they are, results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, especially about vaccine efficacy. We used advances in meta-regression methods and estimates of vaccine efficacy by location to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for rotavirus vaccination in 195 countries. METHODS: Beginning with Tufts University CEA and Global Health CEA registries we used 515 ICERs from 68 articles published through 2017, extracted 938 additional one-way sensitivity analyses, and excluded 33 ICERs for a sample of 1,418. We used a five-stage, mixed-effects, Bayesian metaregression framework to predict ICERs, and logistic regression model to predict the probability that the vaccine was cost-saving. For both models, covariates were vaccine characteristics including efficacy, study methods, and country-specific rotavirus disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. All results are reported in 2017 United States dollars. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy, vaccine cost, GDP per capita and rotavirus DALYs were important drivers of variability in ICERs. Globally, the median ICER was $2,289 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $147-$38,993) and ranged from $85 per DALY averted (95% UI: $13-$302) in Central African Republic to $70,599 per DALY averted (95% UI: $11,030-$263,858) in the United States. Among countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, the mean ICER was $255 per DALY averted (95% UI: $39-$918), and among countries eligible for the PAHO revolving fund, the mean ICER was $2,464 per DALY averted (95% UI: $382-$3,118). CONCLUSION: Our findings incorporate recent evidence that vaccine efficacy differs across locations, and support expansion of rotavirus vaccination programs, particularly in countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance.

Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) differences within and between states by race/ethnicity have not been examined. OBJECTIVE: To estimate LE for selected race/ethnicity groups in states from 1990 to 2019. DESIGN: Cross-sectional time-series analysis. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Deidentified death records and Census data were used to construct regression models with smoothed time series of mortality from 1990 to 2019. MEASUREMENTS: LE at birth, by sex and year, for subgroups of people reporting Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, or non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Disparities in LE across states were 8.0 years for females and 12.2 years for males in 1990 and 7.9 years for females and 7.8 years for males in 2019. When race/ethnicity groups were accounted for, disparities across states were 20.7 years for females and 24.5 years for males in 1990, decreasing to 18.5 years for females and 23.7 years for males in 2019. Disparities across states increased within each race/ethnicity group between 1990 and 2019, with the largest increase for non-Hispanic White males and the smallest for Hispanic females. The disparity between race/ethnicity groups within states decreased for most of the 23 states with estimates for all 3 groups but increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. LIMITATION: Because of small sample size, LE was not estimated for 37 of 153 state-race/ethnicity groups. CONCLUSION: Disparity in LE across states was greater when race/ethnicity groups were considered. Disparities across all state-race/ethnicity groups in general have decreased over the past 3 decades. Within each race/ethnicity group, disparities across states have increased. Although racial/ethnic disparities decreased in most of the 23 states for which LE was estimated for all 3 groups, they increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Current dichotomous metrics obscure trends in severe and extreme child growth failure.

Historically, the prevalence of child growth failure (CGF) has been tracked dichotomously as the proportion of children more than 2 SDs below the median of the World Health Organization growth standards. However, this conventional "thresholding" approach fails to recognize child growth as a spectrum and obscures trends in populations with the highest rates of CGF. Our analysis presents the first ever estimates of entire distributions of HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ for each of 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 for children less than 5 years old by age group and sex. This approach reflects the continuous nature of CGF, allows us to more comprehensively assess shrinking or widening disparities over time, and reveals otherwise hidden trends that disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.

Quantifying the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender equality on health, social, and economic indicators: a comprehensive review of data from March, 2020, to September, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Gender is emerging as a significant factor in the social, economic, and health effects of COVID-19. However, most existing studies have focused on its direct impact on health. Here, we aimed to explore the indirect effects of COVID-19 on gender disparities globally. METHODS: We reviewed publicly available datasets with information on indicators related to vaccine hesitancy and uptake, health care services, economic and work-related concerns, education, and safety at home and in the community. We used mixed effects regression, Gaussian process regression, and bootstrapping to synthesise all data sources. We accounted for uncertainty in the underlying data and modelling process. We then used mixed effects logistic regression to explore gender gaps globally and by region. FINDINGS: Between March, 2020, and September, 2021, women were more likely to report employment loss (26·0% [95% uncertainty interval 23·8-28·8, by September, 2021) than men (20·4% [18·2-22·9], by September, 2021), as well as forgoing work to care for others (ratio of women to men: 1·8 by March, 2020, and 2·4 by September, 2021). Women and girls were 1·21 times (1·20-1·21) more likely than men and boys to report dropping out of school for reasons other than school closures. Women were also 1·23 (1·22-1·23) times more likely than men to report that gender-based violence had increased during the pandemic. By September 2021, women and men did not differ significantly in vaccine hesitancy or uptake. INTERPRETATION: The most significant gender gaps identified in our study show intensified levels of pre-existing widespread inequalities between women and men during the COVID-19 pandemic. Political and social leaders should prioritise policies that enable and encourage women to participate in the labour force and continue their education, thereby equipping and enabling them with greater ability to overcome the barriers they face. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a well-known, but resource intensive, method for comparing the costs and health outcomes of health interventions. To build on available evidence, researchers are developing methods to transfer CEA across settings; previous methods do not use all available results nor quantify differences across settings. We conducted a meta-regression analysis of published CEAs of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to quantify the effects of factors at the country, intervention, and method-level, and predict incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for HPV vaccination in 195 countries. We used 613 ICERs reported in 75 studies from the Tufts University's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Global Health CEA Registry, and extracted an additional 1,215 one-way sensitivity analyses. A five-stage, mixed-effects meta-regression framework was used to predict country-specific ICERs. The probability that HPV vaccination is cost-saving in each country was predicted using a logistic regression model. Covariates for both models included methods and intervention characteristics, and each country's cervical cancer burden and gross domestic product per capita. ICERs are positively related to vaccine cost, and negatively related to cervical cancer burden. The mean predicted ICER for HPV vaccination is 2017 US$4,217 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): US$773-13,448) globally, and below US$800 per DALY averted in 64 countries. Predicted ICERs are lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with a population-weighted mean ICER across 46 countries of US$706 per DALY averted (95% UI: $130-2,245), and across five countries of US$489 per DALY averted (95% UI: $90-1,557), respectively. Meta-regression analyses can be conducted on CEA, where one-way sensitivity analyses are used to quantify the effects of factors at the intervention and method-level. Building on all published results, our predictions support introducing and expanding HPV vaccination, especially in countries that are eligible for subsidized vaccines from GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, and Pan American Health Organization.

Trends and outcomes in primary health care expenditures in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

INTRODUCTION: As the world responds to COVID-19 and aims for the Sustainable Development Goals, the potential for primary healthcare (PHC) is substantial, although the trends and effectiveness of PHC expenditure are unknown. We estimate PHC expenditure for each low-income and middle-income country between 2000 and 2017 and test which health outputs and outcomes were associated with PHC expenditure. METHODS: We used three data sources to estimate PHC expenditures: recently published health expenditure estimates for each low-income and middle-income country, which were constructed using 1662 country-reported National Health Accounts; proprietary data from IQVIA to estimate expenditure of prescribed pharmaceuticals for PHC; and household surveys and costing estimates to estimate inpatient vaginal delivery expenditures. We employed regression analyses to measure the association between PHC expenditures and 15 health outcomes and intermediate health outputs. RESULTS: PHC expenditures in low-income and middle-income countries increased between 2000 and 2017, from $41 per capita (95% uncertainty interval $33-$49) to $90 ($73-$105). Expenditures for low-income countries plateaued since 2014 at $17 per capita ($15-$19). As national income increased, the proportion of health expenditures on PHC generally decrease; however, the fraction of PHC expenditures spent via ambulatory care providers grew. Increases in the fraction of health expenditures on PHC was associated with lower maternal mortality rate (p value≤0.001), improved coverage of antenatal care visits (p value≤0.001), measles vaccination (p value≤0.001) and an increase in the Health Access and Quality index (p value≤0.05). PHC expenditure was not systematically associated with all-age mortality, communicable and non-communicable disease (NCD) burden. CONCLUSION: PHC expenditures were associated with maternal and child health but were not associated with reduction in health burden for other key causes of disability, such as NCDs. To combat changing disease burdens, policy-makers and health professionals need to adapt primary healthcare to ensure continued impact on emerging health challenges.

US Health Care Spending by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2016.

Importance: Measuring health care spending by race and ethnicity is important for understanding patterns in utilization and treatment. Objective: To estimate, identify, and account for differences in health care spending by race and ethnicity from 2002 through 2016 in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This exploratory study included data from 7.3 million health system visits, admissions, or prescriptions captured in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2002-2016) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2002-2012), which were combined with the insured population and notified case estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (2002; 2016) and health care spending estimates from the Disease Expenditure project (1996-2016). Exposure: Six mutually exclusive self-reported race and ethnicity groups. Main Outcomes and Measures: Total and age-standardized health care spending per person by race and ethnicity for each year from 2002 through 2016 by type of care. Health care spending per notified case by race and ethnicity for key diseases in 2016. Differences in health care spending across race and ethnicity groups were decomposed into differences in utilization rate vs differences in price and intensity of care. Results: In 2016, an estimated $2.4 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $2.4 trillion-$2.4 trillion) was spent on health care across the 6 types of care included in this study. The estimated age-standardized total health care spending per person in 2016 was $7649 (95% UI, $6129-$8814) for American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals; $4692 (95% UI, $4068-$5202) for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals; $7361 (95% UI, $6917-$7797) for Black (non-Hispanic) individuals; $6025 (95% UI, $5703-$6373) for Hispanic individuals; $9276 (95% UI, $8066-$10 601) for individuals categorized as multiple races (non-Hispanic); and $8141 (95% UI, $8038-$8258) for White (non-Hispanic) individuals, who accounted for an estimated 72% (95% UI, 71%-73%) of health care spending. After adjusting for population size and age, White individuals received an estimated 15% (95% UI, 13%-17%; P < .001) more spending on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Black (non-Hispanic) individuals received an estimated 26% (95% UI, 19%-32%; P < .001) less spending than the all-population mean on ambulatory care but received 19% (95% UI, 3%-32%; P = .02) more on inpatient and 12% (95% UI, 4%-24%; P = .04) more on emergency department care. Hispanic individuals received an estimated 33% (95% UI, 26%-37%; P < .001) less spending per person on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals received less spending than the all-population mean on all types of care except dental (all P < .001), while American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 90% more; 95% UI, 11%-165%; P = .04), and multiple-race (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 40% more; 95% UI, 19%-63%; P = .006). All 18 of the statistically significant race and ethnicity spending differences by type of care corresponded with differences in utilization. These differences persisted when controlling for underlying disease burden. Conclusions and Relevance: In the US from 2002 through 2016, health care spending varied by race and ethnicity across different types of care even after adjusting for age and health conditions. Further research is needed to determine current health care spending by race and ethnicity, including spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS: In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS: We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION: Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.