The Cook Score: A Novel Assessment for the Prediction of Liver-Associated Clinical Events in a Diverse Population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Transient elastography (TE) provides accurate quantification of liver fibrosis. Its usefulness could be significantly amplified in terms of predicting liver-associated clinical events (LACE). Our aim was to create a model that accurately predicts LACE by combining the information provided by TE with other variables in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records of patients who underwent liver elastography, at John H. Stroger Hospital in Cook County, Chicago, IL. The incidences of LACE were documented including decompensation of CLD, new hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality. Significant predicting factors were identified through a forward stepwise Cox regression model. We used the beta-coefficients of these risk factors to construct the Cook Score for prediction of LACE. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for Cook Score to evaluate its efficiency in prediction, in comparison with MELD-Na Score and FIB-4 Score. RESULTS: A total of 3097 patients underwent liver elastography at our institution. Eighty-eight LACE were identified. Age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, p = 0.002), aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR 2.61, p < 0.001), platelet count (HR 0.98, p < 0.001), international normalized ration (INR) (HR 17.80, p < 0.001), and liver stiffness measurement (HR1.04, p < 0.001) were identified as significant predictors. The Cook Score was constructed with two optimal cut-off points to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups for LACE. The Cook Score proved superior than MELD-Na Score and FIB4 Score in predicting LACE with an area under curve of 0.828. CONCLUSION: This novel score based on a large robust sample would provide accurate prediction of prognosis in patients with chronic liver disease and guide individualized surveillance strategy once validated with future studies.

Incidence of Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Worsens Outcomes with Acute Coronary Syndrome: Result of a National Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a feared complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and has been shown to increase morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to assess the incidence of non-variceal UGIB in patients with ACS in a national cohort and its impact on in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and cost of hospitalization. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study analyzing the 2016 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) utilizing ICD 10 CM codes. Principal discharge diagnoses of ACS (STEMI, NSTEMI, and UA) in patients over 18 years old were included. Non-variceal UGIB with interventions including endoscopy, angiography, and embolization were also evaluated. Primary outcome was the national incidence of concomitant non-variceal UGIB in the setting of ACS. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and cost of stay. RESULTS: A total of 661,404 discharges with principal discharge diagnosis of ACS in 2016 were analyzed. Of the included cohort, 0.80% (n = 5324) were complicated with non-variceal UGIB with increased frequency in older patients (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.03-1.04; p = 0.0001). Despite endoscopic evaluation, 17.35% (n = 744) underwent angiography. After adjustment of confounders, inpatient mortality was significantly higher in patients with UGIB (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.63-2.63, p = 0.0001). Non-variceal UGIB also led to significantly longer LOS (10.38 days vs 4.37 days, p = 0.0001) and cost of stay ($177,324 vs $88,468, p = 0.0001). DISCUSSION: Our study shows that the national incidence of non-variceal UGIB complicating ACS is low at less than 1%, but resulted in significantly higher inpatient mortality, LOS, and hospitalization charges.

Portal Hypertension and Chronic Kidney Disease Significantly Increase the Risk of Early Unplanned Readmissions in GAVE- Related Admissions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gastric antral vascular ectasia (GAVE) is an uncommon cause of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding that is characterized by dilation of blood vessels in the antrum of the stomach. Various co-morbidities are associated with the development of GAVE, but the impact of co-morbidities on unplanned GAVE readmissions is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the national incidence, 30-day mortality rate, and 30-day readmissions related to GAVE. Secondary outcomes were evaluation of predictors of early readmission, hospital length of stay (LOS) and total hospitalization charges. METHODS: Using the 2016 National Readmission Database, we analyzed discharges for GAVE. ICD-10 CM codes were utilized to identify associated comorbidities and inpatient procedures during the index admission. 30-day readmissions were identified for GAVE. Secondary measures of outcomes including LOS and hospitalization charges were also calculated. Risk factors for early readmission were also evaluated using multivariate analysis to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: A total of 18,375 index admissions for GAVE were identified. 20.49% (n=3,720) of the discharged patients were readmitted within 30 days. 30-day mortality of GAVE-related admissions was 1.82% (n=335). Early readmissions accounted for 20,157 hospital days along with $189 million in hospitalization costs. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of portal hypertension (OR 1.63; 95% CI 1.37-1.93; p=0.0001) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.44-1.82; p<0.0001) significantly increased the odds of early readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates that the overall 30-day mortality rate of GAVE-related admissions is relatively low, but the 30-day readmission rate is significantly high. Patients with comorbid CKD and portal hypertension have a significantly higher risk of readmission. Further studies are required to determine if therapeutic interventions such as argon plasma coagulation or radiofrequency ablation during the index admission may prevent readmissions in these specific subgroups.