Decision Analytic Modeling for Global Clinical Trial Planning: A Case for HIV-Positive Patients at High Risk for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Sepsis in Uganda.

Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. In the planning period prior to the start of a large multi-country clinical trial studying the efficacy of the immediate empiric addition of anti-tuberculosis therapy to standard-of-care antibiotics for sepsis in people living with HIV, we used decision analysis to assess the costs and potential health outcome impacts of the clinical trial design based on preliminary data and epidemiological parameter estimates. The purpose of this analysis was to highlight this approach as a case example where decision analysis can estimate the cost effectiveness of a proposed clinical trial design. In this case, we estimated the impact of immediate empiric anti-tuberculosis (TB) therapy versus the diagnosis-dependent standard of care using three different TB diagnostics: urine TB-LAM, sputum Xpert-MTB/RIF, and the combination of LAM/Xpert. We constructed decision analytic models comparing the two treatment strategies for each of the three diagnostic approaches. Immediate empiric-therapy demonstrated favorable cost-effectiveness compared with all three diagnosis-dependent standard of care models. In our methodological case exemplar, the proposed randomized clinical trial intervention demonstrated the most favorable outcome within this decision simulation framework. Applying the principles of decision analysis and economic evaluation can have significant impacts on study design and clinical trial planning.

Cost-effectiveness of single, high-dose, liposomal amphotericin regimen for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa: an economic analysis of the AMBITION-cm trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is a leading cause of AIDS-related mortality. The AMBITION-cm trial showed that a regimen based on a single high dose of liposomal amphotericin B deoxycholate (AmBisome group) was non-inferior to the WHO-recommended treatment of seven daily doses of amphotericin B deoxycholate (control group) and was associated with fewer adverse events. We present a five-country cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: The AMBITION-cm trial enrolled patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis from eight hospitals in Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Taking a health service perspective, we collected country-specific unit costs and individual resource-use data per participant over the 10-week trial period, calculating mean cost per participant by group, mean cost-difference between groups, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per life-year saved. Non-parametric bootstrapping and scenarios analyses were performed including hypothetical real-world resource use. The trial registration number is ISRCTN72509687, and the trial has been completed. FINDINGS: The AMBITION-cm trial enrolled 844 participants, and 814 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (327 from Uganda, 225 from Malawi, 107 from South Africa, 84 from Botswana, and 71 from Zimbabwe) with 407 in each group, between Jan 31, 2018, and Feb 17, 2021. Using Malawi as a representative example, mean total costs per participant were US$1369 (95% CI 1314-1424) in the AmBisome group and $1237 (1181-1293) in the control group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $128 (59-257) per life-year saved. Excluding study protocol-driven cost, using a real-world toxicity monitoring schedule, the cost per life-year saved reduced to $80 (15-275). Changes in the duration of the hospital stay and antifungal medication cost showed the greatest effect in sensitivity analyses. Results were similar across countries, with the cost per life-year saved in the real-world scenario ranging from $71 in Botswana to $121 in Uganda. INTERPRETATION: The AmBisome regimen was cost-effective at a low incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The regimen might be even less costly and potentially cost-saving in real-world implementation given the lower drug-related toxicity and the potential for shorter hospital stays. FUNDING: European Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Council, UKAID Joint Global Health Trials, and the National Institute for Health Research. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chichewa, Isixhosa, Luganda, Setswana and Shona translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Adjunctive sertraline for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis: a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Identifying new antifungals for cryptococcal meningitis is a priority given the inadequacy of current therapy. Sertraline has previously shown in vitro and in vivo activity against cryptococcus. We aimed to assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of adjunctive sertraline in adults with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis compared with placebo. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited HIV-positive adults with cryptococcal meningitis from two hospitals in Uganda. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive standard therapy with 7-14 days of intravenous amphotericin B (0·7-1·0 mg/kg per day) and oral fluconazole (starting at 800 mg/day) with either adjunctive sertraline or placebo. Sertraline was administered orally or via nasogastric tube at a dose of 400 mg/day for 2 weeks, followed by 200 mg/day for 12 weeks, then tapered off over 3 weeks. The primary endpoint was 18-week survival, analysed by intention-to-treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01802385. FINDINGS: Between March 9, 2015, and May 29, 2017, we screened 842 patients with suspected meningitis and enrolled 460 of a planned 550 participants, at which point the trial was stopped for futility. Three patients in the sertraline group and three patients in the placebo group were lost to follow-up and therefore discontinued before study end. At 18 weeks, 120 (52%) of 229 patients in the sertraline group and 106 (46%) of 231 patients in the placebo group had died (hazard ratio 1·21, 95% CI 0·93-1·57; p=0·15). The fungal clearance rate from cerebrospinal fluid was similar between groups (0·43 -log10 CFU/mL per day [95% CI 0·37-0·50] in the sertraline group vs 0·47 -log10 CFU/mL per day [0·40-0·54] in the placebo group; p=0·59), as was occurrence of grade 4 or 5 adverse events (72 [31%] of 229 vs 75 [32%] of 231; p=0·98), most of which were associated with amphotericin B toxicity. INTERPRETATION: Sertraline did not reduce mortality and should not be used to treat patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis. The reasons for sertraline inactivity appear to be multifactorial and might be associated with insufficient duration of therapeutic sertraline concentrations. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health and Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

AMBIsome Therapy Induction OptimisatioN (AMBITION): High dose AmBisome for cryptococcal meningitis induction therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: economic evaluation protocol for a randomised controlled trial-based equivalence study.

INTRODUCTION: Cryptococcal meningitis is responsible for around 15% of all HIV-related deaths globally. Conventional treatment courses with amphotericin B require prolonged hospitalisation and are associated with multiple toxicities and poor outcomes. A phase II study has shown that a single high dose of liposomal amphotericin may be comparable to standard treatment. We propose a phase III clinical endpoint trial comparing single, high-dose liposomal amphotericin with the WHO recommended first-line treatment at six sites across five counties. An economic analysis is essential to support wide-scale implementation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Country-specific economic evaluation tools will be developed across the five country settings. Details of patient and household out-of-pocket expenses and any catastrophic healthcare expenditure incurred will be collected via interviews from trial patients. Health service patient costs and related household expenditure in both arms will be compared over the trial period in a probabilistic approach, using Monte Carlo bootstrapping methods. Costing information and number of life-years survived will be used as the input to a decision-analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a single, high-dose liposomal amphotericin to the standard treatment. In addition, these results will be compared with a historical cohort from another clinical trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The AMBIsome Therapy Induction OptimisatioN (AMBITION) trial has been evaluated and approved by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of Botswana, Malawi National Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Mulago Hospital and Zimbabwe Medical Research Council research ethics committees. All participants will provide written informed consent or if lacking capacity will have consent provided by a proxy. The findings of this economic analysis, part of the AMBITION trial, will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and at international and country-level policy meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 7250 9687; Pre-results.

Leave no one behind: response to new evidence and guidelines for the management of cryptococcal meningitis in low-income and middle-income countries.

In 2018, WHO issued guidelines for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of HIV-related cryptococcal disease. Two strategies are recommended to reduce the high mortality associated with HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs): optimised combination therapies for confirmed meningitis cases and cryptococcal antigen screening programmes for ambulatory people living with HIV who access care. WHO's preferred therapy for the treatment of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in LMICs is 1 week of amphotericin B plus flucytosine, and the alternative therapy is 2 weeks of fluconazole plus flucytosine. In the ACTA trial, 1-week (short course) amphotericin B plus flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 24% (95% CI -16 to 32) and 2 weeks of fluconazole and flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 35% (95% CI -29 to 41). However, with widely used fluconazole monotherapy, mortality because of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis is approximately 70% in many African LMIC settings. Therefore, the potential to transform the management of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in resource-limited settings is substantial. Sustainable access to essential medicines, including flucytosine and amphotericin B, in LMICs is paramount and the focus of this Personal View.

AMBIsome Therapy Induction OptimisatioN (AMBITION): High Dose AmBisome for Cryptococcal Meningitis Induction Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Study Protocol for a Phase 3 Randomised Controlled Non-Inferiority Trial.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is a major cause of mortality in HIV programmes in Africa despite increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Mortality is driven in part by limited availability of amphotericin-based treatment, drug-induced toxicities of amphotericin B deoxycholate and prolonged hospital admissions. A single, high-dose of liposomal amphotericin (L-AmB, Ambisome) on a fluconazole backbone has been reported as non-inferior to 14 days of standard dose L-AmB in reducing fungal burden. This trial examines whether single, high-dose L-AmB given with high-dose fluconazole and flucytosine is non-inferior to a seven-day course of amphotericin B deoxycholate plus flucytosine (the current World Health Organization [WHO] recommended treatment regimen). METHODS: An open-label phase III randomised controlled non-inferiority trial conducted in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The trial will compare CM induction therapy with (1) a single dose (10 mg/kg) of L-AmB given with 14 days of fluconazole (1200 mg/day) and flucytosine (100 mg/kg/day) to (2) seven days amphotericin B deoxycholate (1 mg/kg/day) given alongside seven days of flucytosine (100 mg/kg/day) followed by seven days of fluconazole (1200 mg/day). The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality at ten weeks with a non-inferiority margin of 10% and 90% power. Secondary endpoints are early fungicidal activity, proportion of grade III/IV adverse events, pharmacokinetic parameters and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic associations, health service costs, all-cause mortality within the first two and four weeks, all-cause mortality within the first ten weeks (superiority analysis) and rates of CM relapse, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome and disability at ten weeks. A total of 850 patients aged ≥ 18 years with a first episode of HIV-associated CM will be enrolled (425 randomised to each arm). All patients will be followed for 16 weeks. All patients will receive consolidation therapy with fluconazole 800 mg/day to complete ten weeks of treatment, followed by fluconazole maintenance and ART as per local guidance. DISCUSSION: A safe, sustainable and easy to administer regimen of L-AmB that is non-inferior to seven days of daily amphotericin B deoxycholate therapy may reduce the number of adverse events seen in patients treated with amphotericin B deoxycholate and shorten hospital admissions, providing a highly favourable and implementable alternative to the current WHO recommended first-line treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN72509687 . Registered on 13 July 2017.