The use of innovative approaches to strengthen health system resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: case studies from selected Commonwealth countries.

This article is part of the Research Topic 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities and limitations of many health systems and underscored the need for strengthening health system resilience to make and sustain progress toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC), global health security and healthier populations in tandem. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Commonwealth countries have been practicing a combination of innovative integrated approaches and actions to build health systems resilience. This includes utilizing digital tools, improvements in all-hazard emergency risk management, developing multisectoral partnerships, strengthening surveillance and community engagement. These interventions have been instrumental in strengthening national COVID-19 responses and can contribute to the evidence-base for increasing country investment into health systems resilience, particularly as we look toward COVID-19 recovery. This paper gives perspectives of five Commonwealth countries and their overall responses to the pandemic, highlighting practical firsthand experiences in the field. The countries included in this paper are Guyana, Malawi, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania. Given the diversity within the Commonwealth both in terms of geographical location and state of development, this publication can serve as a useful reference for countries as they prepare their health systems to better absorb the shocks that may emerge in future emergencies.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. METHODS: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. RESULTS: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

A pragmatic health centre-based evaluation comparing the effectiveness of a PCV13 schedule change from 3+0 to 2+1 in a high pneumococcal carriage and disease burden setting in Malawi: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is commonly carried as a commensal bacterium in the nasopharynx but can cause life-threatening disease. Transmission occurs by human respiratory droplets and interruption of this process provides herd immunity. A 2017 WHO Consultation on Optimisation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) Impact highlighted a substantial research gap in investigating why the impact of PCV vaccines in low-income countries has been lower than expected. Malawi introduced the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) into the national Expanded Programme of Immunisations in 2011, using a 3+0 (3 primary +0 booster doses) schedule. With evidence of greater impact of a 2+1 (2 primary +1 booster dose) schedule in other settings, including South Africa, Malawi's National Immunisations Technical Advisory Group is seeking evidence of adequate superiority of a 2+1 schedule to inform vaccine policy. METHODS: A pragmatic health centre-based evaluation comparing impact of a PCV13 schedule change from 3+0 to 2+1 in Blantyre district, Malawi. Twenty government health centres will be randomly selected, with ten implementing a 2+1 and 10 to continue with the 3+0 schedule. Health centres implementing 3+0 will serve as the direct comparator in evaluating 2+1 providing superior direct and indirect protection against pneumococcal carriage. Pneumococcal carriage surveys will evaluate carriage prevalence among children 15-24 months, randomised at household level, and schoolgoers 5-10 years of age, randomly selected from school registers. Carriage surveys will be conducted 18 and 33 months following 2+1 implementation. ANALYSIS: The primary endpoint is powered to detect an effect size of 50% reduction in vaccine serotype (VT) carriage among vaccinated children 15-24 months old, expecting a 14% and 7% VT carriage prevalence in the 3+0 and 2+1 arms, respectively. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Malawi College of Medicine Research Ethics Committee (COMREC; Ref: P05.19.2680), the University College London Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 8603.002) and the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 5439). The results from this study will be actively disseminated through manuscript publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04078997.

Predictive value of pulse oximetry for mortality in infants and children presenting to primary care with clinical pneumonia in rural Malawi: A data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The mortality impact of pulse oximetry use during infant and childhood pneumonia management at the primary healthcare level in low-income countries is unknown. We sought to determine mortality outcomes of infants and children diagnosed and referred using clinical guidelines with or without pulse oximetry in Malawi. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a data linkage study of prospective health facility and community case and mortality data. We matched prospectively collected community health worker (CHW) and health centre (HC) outpatient data to prospectively collected hospital and community-based mortality surveillance outcome data, including episodes followed up to and deaths within 30 days of pneumonia diagnosis amongst children 0-59 months old. All data were collected in Lilongwe and Mchinji districts, Malawi, from January 2012 to June 2014. We determined differences in mortality rates using <90% and <93% oxygen saturation (SpO2) thresholds and World Health Organization (WHO) and Malawi clinical guidelines for referral. We used unadjusted and adjusted (for age, sex, respiratory rate, and, in analyses of HC data only, Weight for Age Z-score [WAZ]) regression to account for interaction between SpO2 threshold (pulse oximetry) and clinical guidelines, clustering by child, and CHW or HC catchment area. We matched CHW and HC outpatient data to hospital inpatient records to explore roles of pulse oximetry and clinical guidelines on hospital attendance after referral. From 7,358 CHW and 6,546 HC pneumonia episodes, we linked 417 CHW and 695 HC pneumonia episodes to 30-day mortality outcomes: 16 (3.8%) CHW and 13 (1.9%) HC patients died. SpO2 thresholds of <90% and <93% identified 1 (6%) of the 16 CHW deaths that were unidentified by integrated community case management (iCCM) WHO referral protocol and 3 (23%) and 4 (31%) of the 13 HC deaths, respectively, that were unidentified by the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) WHO protocol. Malawi IMCI referral protocol, which differs from WHO protocol at the HC level and includes chest indrawing, identified all but one of these deaths. SpO2 < 90% predicted death independently of WHO danger signs compared with SpO2 ≥ 90%: HC Risk Ratio (RR), 9.37 (95% CI: 2.17-40.4, p = 0.003); CHW RR, 6.85 (1.15-40.9, p = 0.035). SpO2 < 93% was also predictive versus SpO2 ≥ 93% at HC level: RR, 6.68 (1.52-29.4, p = 0.012). Hospital referrals and outpatient episodes with referral decision indications were associated with mortality. A substantial proportion of those referred were not found admitted in the inpatients within 7 days of referral advice. All 12 deaths in 73 hospitalised children occurred within 24 hours of arrival in the hospital, which highlights delay in appropriate care seeking. The main limitation of our study was our ability to only match 6% of CHW episodes and 11% of HC episodes to mortality outcome data. CONCLUSIONS: Pulse oximetry identified fatal pneumonia episodes at HCs in Malawi that would otherwise have been missed by WHO referral guidelines alone. Our findings suggest that pulse oximetry could be beneficial in supplementing clinical signs to identify children with pneumonia at high risk of mortality in the outpatient setting in health centres for referral to a hospital for appropriate management.

The economic impact of childhood acute gastroenteritis on Malawian families and the healthcare system.

OBJECTIVES: This prospective cohort study sought to estimate health system and household costs for episodes of diarrhoeal illness in Malawi. SETTING: Data were collected in two Malawian settings: a rural health centre in Chilumba and an urban tertiary care hospital in Blantyre. PARTICIPANTS: Children under 5 years of age presenting with diarrhoeal disease between 1 January 2013 and 21 November 2014 were eligible for inclusion. Illnesses attributed to other underlying causes were excluded, as were illnesses commencing more than 2 weeks prior to presentation. Complete data were collected on 514 cases at both the time of the initial visit to the participating healthcare facility and 6 weeks after discharge. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the total cost of an episode of illness. Costs to the health system were gathered from chart review (drugs and diagnostics) and actual hospital expenditure (staff and facility costs). Household costs, including lost income, were obtained by interview with the parents/guardians of patients. RESULTS: Total costs in 2014 US$ for rural inpatient, rural outpatient, urban inpatient and urban outpatient were $65.33, $8.89, $60.23 and $14.51, respectively (excluding lost income). Mean household contributions to these costs were 15.8%, 9.8%, 21.3% and 50.6%. CONCLUSION: This study found significant financial burden from childhood diarrhoeal disease to the healthcare system and to households. The latter face the risk of consequent impoverishment, as the study demonstrates how the costs of seeking treatment bring the income of the majority of families in all income strata below the national poverty line in the month of illness.

Governing multisectoral action for health in low- and middle-income countries.

Kumanan Rasanathan and colleagues argue that the potential of multisectoral collaboration for improving health remains untapped in many low- and middle-income countries.

Impact of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Clinical and Hypoxemic Childhood Pneumonia over Three Years in Central Malawi: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine's (PCV) impact on childhood pneumonia during programmatic conditions in Africa is poorly understood. Following PCV13 introduction in Malawi in November 2011, we evaluated the case burden and rates of childhood pneumonia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between January 1, 2012-June 30, 2014 we conducted active pneumonia surveillance in children <5 years at seven hospitals, 18 health centres, and with 38 community health workers in two districts, central Malawi. Eligible children had clinical pneumonia per Malawi guidelines, defined as fast breathing only, chest indrawing +/- fast breathing, or, ≥1 clinical danger sign. Since pulse oximetry was not in the Malawi guidelines, oxygenation <90% defined hypoxemic pneumonia, a distinct category from clinical pneumonia. We quantified the pneumonia case burden and rates in two ways. We compared the period immediately following vaccine introduction (early) to the period with >75% three-dose PCV13 coverage (post). We also used multivariable time-series regression, adjusting for autocorrelation and exploring seasonal variation and alternative model specifications in sensitivity analyses. The early versus post analysis showed an increase in cases and rates of total, fast breathing, and indrawing pneumonia and a decrease in danger sign and hypoxemic pneumonia, and pneumonia mortality. At 76% three-dose PCV13 coverage, versus 0%, the time-series model showed a non-significant increase in total cases (+47%, 95% CI: -13%, +149%, p = 0.154); fast breathing cases increased 135% (+39%, +297%, p = 0.001), however, hypoxemia fell 47% (-5%, -70%, p = 0.031) and hospital deaths decreased 36% (-1%, -58%, p = 0.047) in children <5 years. We observed a shift towards disease without danger signs, as the proportion of cases with danger signs decreased by 65% (-46%, -77%, p<0.0001). These results were generally robust to plausible alternative model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Thirty months after PCV13 introduction in Malawi, the health system burden and rates of the severest forms of childhood pneumonia, including hypoxemia and death, have markedly decreased.

Cost-Effectiveness of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants in Malawi: A Postintroduction Analysis Using Individual Patient-Level Costing Data.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccination reduces childhood hospitalization in Africa, but cost-effectiveness has not been determined using real-world effectiveness and costing data. We sought to determine monovalent rotavirus vaccine cost-effectiveness in Malawi, one of Africa's poorest countries and the first Gavi-eligible country to report disease reduction following introduction in 2012. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of children with acute gastroenteritis at a rural primary health center, a rural first referral-level hospital and an urban regional referral hospital in Malawi. For each participant we itemized household costs of illness and direct medical expenditures incurred. We also collected Ministry of Health vaccine implementation costs. Using a standard tool (TRIVAC), we derived cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Between 1 January 2013 and 21 November 2014, we recruited 530 children aged <5 years with gastroenteritis. Costs did not differ by rotavirus test result, but were significantly higher for admitted children and those with increased severity on Vesikari scale. Adding rotavirus vaccine to the national schedule costs Malawi $0.42 per dose in system costs. Vaccine copayment is an additional $0.20. Over 20 years, the vaccine program will avert 1 026 000 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 78 000 inpatient admissions, 4300 deaths, and 136 000 disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs). For this year's birth cohort, it will avert 54 000 cases of rotavirus and 281 deaths in children aged <5 years. The program will cost $10.5 million and save $8.0 million in averted healthcare costs. Societal cost per DALY averted was $10, and the cost per rotavirus case averted was $1. CONCLUSIONS: Gastroenteritis causes substantial economic burden to Malawi. The rotavirus vaccine program is highly cost-effective. Together with the demonstrated impact of rotavirus vaccine in reducing population hospitalization burden, its cost-effectiveness makes a strong argument for widespread utilization in other low-income, high-burden settings.

Effects of quality improvement in health facilities and community mobilization through women's groups on maternal, neonatal and perinatal mortality in three districts of Malawi: MaiKhanda, a cluster randomized controlled effectiveness trial.

BACKGROUND: Maternal, perinatal and neonatal mortality remains high in low-income countries. We evaluated community and facility-based interventions to reduce deaths in three districts of Malawi. METHODS: We evaluated a rural participatory women's group community intervention (CI) and a quality improvement intervention at health centres (FI) via a two-by-two factorial cluster randomized controlled trial. Consenting pregnant women were followed-up to 2 months after birth using key informants. Primary outcomes were maternal, perinatal and neonatal mortality. Clusters were health centre catchment areas assigned using stratified computer-generated randomization. Following exclusions, including non-birthing facilities, 61 clusters were analysed: control (17 clusters, 4912 births), FI (15, 5335), CI (15, 5080) and FI + CI (14, 5249). This trial was registered as International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial [ISRCTN18073903]. Outcomes for 14,576 and 20,576 births were recorded during baseline (June 2007-September 2008) and intervention (October 2008-December 2010) periods. RESULTS: For control, FI, CI and FI + CI clusters neonatal mortality rates were 34.0, 28.3, 29.9 and 27.0 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births and perinatal mortality rates were 56.2, 55.1, 48.0 and 48.4 per 1000 births, during the intervention period. Adjusting for clustering and stratification, the neonatal mortality rate was 22% lower in FI + CI than control clusters (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.60-1.01), and the perinatal mortality rate was 16% lower in CI clusters (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.97). We did not observe any intervention effects on maternal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Despite implementation problems, a combined community and facility approach using participatory women's groups and quality improvement at health centres reduced newborn mortality in rural Malawi.

Women's groups practising participatory learning and action to improve maternal and newborn health in low-resource settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality rates remain high in many low-income and middle-income countries. Different approaches for the improvement of birth outcomes have been used in community-based interventions, with heterogeneous effects on survival. We assessed the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action, compared with usual care, on birth outcomes in low-resource settings. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials undertaken in Bangladesh, India, Malawi, and Nepal in which the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action were assessed to identify population-level predictors of effect on maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, and stillbirths. We also reviewed the cost-effectiveness of the women's group intervention and estimated its potential effect at scale in Countdown countries. FINDINGS: Seven trials (119,428 births) met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses of all trials showed that exposure to women's groups was associated with a 37% reduction in maternal mortality (odds ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.32-0.94), a 23% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.77, 0.65-0.90), and a 9% non-significant reduction in stillbirths (0.91, 0.79-1.03), with high heterogeneity for maternal (I(2)=58.8%, p=0.024) and neonatal results (I(2)=64.7%, p=0.009). In the meta-regression analyses, the proportion of pregnant women in groups was linearly associated with reduction in both maternal and neonatal mortality (p=0.026 and p=0.011, respectively). A subgroup analysis of the four studies in which at least 30% of pregnant women participated in groups showed a 55% reduction in maternal mortality (0.45, 0.17-0.73) and a 33% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.67, 0.59-0.74). The intervention was cost effective by WHO standards and could save an estimated 283,000 newborn infants and 41,100 mothers per year if implemented in rural areas of 74 Countdown countries. INTERPRETATION: With the participation of at least a third of pregnant women and adequate population coverage, women's groups practising participatory learning and action are a cost-effective strategy to improve maternal and neonatal survival in low-resource settings. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Ammalife, and National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Birmingham and the Black Country programme.

Task shifting an inpatient triage, assessment and treatment programme improves the quality of care for hospitalised Malawian children.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to improve paediatric inpatient surveillance at a busy referral hospital in Malawi with two new programmes: (i) the provision of vital sign equipment and implementation of an inpatient triage programme (ITAT) that includes a simplified paediatric severity-of-illness score, and (ii) task shifting ITAT to a new cadre of healthcare workers called 'vital sign assistants' (VSAs). METHODS: This study, conducted on the paediatric inpatient ward of a large referral hospital in Malawi, was divided into three phases, each lasting 4 weeks. In Phase A, we collected baseline data. In Phase B, we provided three new automated vital sign poles and implemented ITAT with current hospital staff. In Phase C, VSAs were introduced and performed ITAT. Our primary outcome measures were the number of vital sign assessments performed and clinician notifications to reassess patients with high ITAT scores. RESULTS: We enrolled 3994 patients who received 5155 vital sign assessments. Assessment frequency was equal between Phases A (0.67 assessments/patient) and B (0.61 assessments/patient), but increased 3.6-fold in Phase C (2.44 assessments/patient, P < 0.001). Clinician notifications increased from Phases A (84) and B (113) to Phase C (161, P = 0.002). Inpatient mortality fell from Phase A (9.3%) to Phases B (5.7) and C (6.9%). CONCLUSION: ITAT with VSAs improved vital sign assessments and nearly doubled clinician notifications of patients needing further assessment due to high ITAT scores, while equipment alone made no difference. Task shifting ITAT to VSAs may improve outcomes in paediatric hospitals in the developing world.

Newborn survival in Malawi: a decade of change and future implications.

Malawi is one of two low-income sub-Saharan African countries on track to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) for child survival despite high fertility and HIV and low health worker density. With neonatal deaths becoming an increasing proportion of under-five deaths, addressing newborn survival is critical for achieving MDG 4. We examine change for newborn survival in the decade 2000-10, analysing mortality and coverage indicators whilst considering other contextual factors. We assess national and donor funding, as well as policy and programme change for newborn survival using standard analyses and tools being applied as part of a multi-country analysis. Compared with the 1990s, progress towards MDG 4 and 5 accelerated considerably from 2000 to 2010. Malawi's neonatal mortality rate (NMR) reduced slower than annual reductions in mortality for children 1-59 months and maternal mortality (NMR reduced 3.5% annually). Yet, the NMR reduced at greater pace than the regional and global averages. A significant increase in facility births and other health system changes, including increased human resources, likely contributed to this decline. High level attention for maternal health and associated comprehensive policy change has provided a platform for a small group of technical and programme experts to link in high impact interventions for newborn survival. The initial entry point for newborn care in Malawi was mainly through facility initiatives, such as Kangaroo Mother Care. This transitioned to an integrated and comprehensive approach at community and facility level through the Community-Based Maternal and Newborn Care package, now being implemented in 17 of 28 districts. Addressing quality gaps, especially for care at birth in facilities, and including newborn interventions in child health programmes, will be critical to the future agenda of newborn survival in Malawi.

Ethical challenges in cluster randomized controlled trials: experiences from public health interventions in Africa and Asia.

Public health interventions usually operate at the level of groups rather than individuals, and cluster randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are one means of evaluating their effectiveness. Using examples from six such trials in Bangladesh, India, Malawi and Nepal, we discuss our experience of the ethical issues that arise in their conduct. We set cluster RCTs in the broader context of public health research, highlighting debates about the need to reconcile individual autonomy with the common good and about the ethics of public health research in low-income settings in general. After a brief introduction to cluster RCTs, we discuss particular challenges we have faced. These include the nature of - and responsibility for - group consent, and the need for consent by individuals within groups to intervention and data collection. We discuss the timing of consent in relation to the implementation of public health strategies, and the problem of securing ethical review and approval in a complex domain. Finally, we consider the debate about benefits to control groups and the standard of care that they should receive, and the issue of post-trial adoption of the intervention under test.

Estimation of potential effects of improved community-based drug provision, to augment health-facility strengthening, on maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa: an equity-effectiveness model.

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality in Africa has changed little since 1990. We developed a mathematical model with the aim to assess whether improved community-based access to life-saving drugs, to augment a core programme of health-facility strengthening, could reduce maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model by considering the key events leading to maternal death from post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis after delivery. With parameter estimates from published work of occurrence of post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis, case fatality, and the effectiveness of drugs, we used this model to estimate the effect of three potential packages of interventions: 1) health-facility strengthening; 2) health-facility strengthening combined with improved drug provision via antenatal-care appointments and community health workers; and 3) all interventions in package two combined with improved community-based drug provision via female volunteers in villages. The model was applied to Malawi and sub-Saharan Africa. FINDINGS: In the implementation of the model, the lowest risk deliveries were those in health facilities. With the model we estimated that of 2860 maternal deaths from post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis per year in Malawi, intervention package one could prevent 210 (7%) deaths, package two 720 (25%) deaths, and package three 1020 (36%) deaths. In sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated that of 182 000 of such maternal deaths per year, these three packages could prevent 21 300 (12%), 43 800 (24%), and 59 000 (32%) deaths, respectively. The estimated effect of community-based drug provision was greatest for the poorest women. INTERPRETATION: Community provision of misoprostol and antibiotics to reduce maternal deaths from post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis could be a highly effective addition to health-facility strengthening in Africa. Investigation of such interventions is urgently needed to establish the risks, benefits, and challenges of widespread implementation. FUNDING: Institute of Child Health and Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University College London, and a donation from John and Ann-Margaret Walton.

Countdown to 2015: will the Millennium Development Goal for child survival be met?

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), ratified by most nations in 2000, set specific targets for poverty reduction, eradication of hunger, education, gender equality, health and environmental sustainability. MDG 4 aims to reduce child mortality with a target of reducing under-five mortality rates by two thirds over the period 1990-2015. Over the last year, Live Aid, Make Poverty History, the G8 summits and prominent entertainers have directed unprecedented attention towards development and health. Africa particularly has been in the spotlight. Reports are published and commitments are made, but is there real progress? Are poor people being reached with essential health care? Who will hold leaders to account: celebrities, activists or health professionals?