The cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data.

BACKGROUND: The economic impact of managing long COVID in primary care is unknown. We estimated the costs of primary care consultations associated with long COVID and explored the relationship between risk factors and costs. METHODS: Data were obtained on non-hospitalised adults from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. We used propensity score matching with an incremental cost method to estimate additional primary care consultation costs associated with long COVID (12 weeks after COVID-19) at an individual and UK national level. We applied multivariable regression models to estimate the association between risk factors and consultations costs beyond 12 weeks from acute COVID-19. RESULTS: Based on an analysis of 472,173 patients with COVID-19 and 472,173 unexposed individuals, the annual incremental cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID was £2.44 per patient and £23,382,452 at the national level. Among patients with COVID-19, a long COVID diagnosis and reporting of longer-term symptoms were associated with a 43% and 44% increase in primary care consultation costs respectively, compared to patients without long COVID symptoms. Older age, female sex, obesity, being from a white ethnic group, comorbidities and prior consultation frequency were all associated with increased primary care consultation costs. CONCLUSIONS: The costs of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults are substantial. Costs are significantly higher among those diagnosed with long COVID, those with long COVID symptoms, older adults, females, and those with obesity and comorbidities.

Presence of Codes for Indication for Use in Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum: An Assessment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Treatments.

Background: Assessments of strengths and limitations of new data sources are critical for making decisions about suitability for specific research questions. For some studies, it is necessary to capture a drug's indication for use. Objective: To assess the presence of indications for prescription use in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum (January 1988-June 2021) by describing the proportion of men in CPRD Aurum who had a recorded indication for use of prescriptions for 5-alpha reductase inhibitors (5-ARI), alpha blockers (AB), or tadalafil, which have multiple indications. Methods: From a random sample of 154 practices of CPRD Aurum data, we selected 85,597 male patients with a prescription for a 5-ARI, an AB, or tadalafil. Among these patients, we described presence of codes indicating whether the patient had benign prostatic hyperplasia, hypertension, erectile dysfunction, or alopecia using three indication definitions: narrow (specific diagnoses recorded within one year before and up to 90 days after the prescription), broad (specific diagnoses or supporting clinical codes in the time period described above), and widest (diagnoses or supporting codes recorded at any time before the prescription and up to 90 days after the prescription). Results: Using the narrow indication definition limited to diagnoses only, 39,861 (46.6%) patients' records contained an indication for use. The broad definitions, which additionally included supporting codes, captured indications for 62,912 (73.5%) patients and the widest definition, which additionally included supporting codes and all available data before the first prescription date, captured indications for 71,478 (83.5%) patients. Indications were present more often for prescriptions in 2005 and later (85.9%). Conclusion: The findings of this assessment suggest that CPRD Aurum can be used for studies that require information on treatment indications for BPH and potentially for treatments of other chronic diseases managed in the primary care setting.

Systematic approach to outcome assessment from coded electronic healthcare records in the DaRe2THINK NHS-embedded randomized trial.

Aims: Improving the efficiency of clinical trials is key to their continued importance in directing evidence-based patient care. Digital innovations, in particular the use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), allow for large-scale screening and follow up of participants. However, it is critical these developments are accompanied by robust and transparent methods that can support high-quality and high clinical value research. Methods and results: The DaRe2THINK trial includes a series of novel processes, including nationwide pseudonymized pre screening of the primary-care EHR across England, digital enrolment, remote e-consent, and 'no-visit' follow up by linking all primary- and secondary-care health data with patient-reported outcomes. DaRe2THINK is a pragmatic, healthcare-embedded randomized trial testing whether earlier use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with prior or current atrial fibrillation can prevent thromboembolic events and cognitive decline (www.birmingham.ac.uk/dare2think). This study outlines the systematic approach and methodology employed to define patient information and outcome events. This includes transparency on all medical code lists and phenotypes used in the trial across a variety of national data sources, including Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (primary care), Hospital Episode Statistics (secondary care), and the Office for National Statistics (mortality). Conclusion: Co-designed by a patient and public involvement team, DaRe2THINK presents an opportunity to transform the approach to randomized trials in the setting of routine healthcare, providing high-quality evidence generation in populations representative of the community at risk.

Use of prescribing safety quality improvement reports in UK general practices: a qualitative assessment.

BACKGROUND: Quality improvement (QI) initiatives are increasingly used to improve the quality of care and reduce prescribing errors. The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) QI initiative uses routinely collected electronic primary care data to provide bespoke practice-level reports on prescribing safety. The aim of this study was to explore how the QI reports were used, barriers and facilitators to use, long-term culture change and perceived impact on patient care and practices systems as a result of receiving the reports. METHODS: A qualitative study using purposive sampling of practices contributing to the CPRD, semi-structured interviews and inductive thematic analysis. We interviewed general practitioners, pharmacists, practice managers and research nurses. RESULTS: We conducted 18 interviews, and organised themes summarising the use of QI reports in practice: receiving the report, facilitators and barriers to acting upon the reports, acting upon the report, and how the reports contribute to a quality culture. Effective dissemination of reports, and a positive attitude to audit and the perceived relevance of the clinical topic facilitated use. Lack of time and failure to see or act upon the reports meant they were not used. Factors influencing use of the reports included the structure of the report, ease of identifying cases, and perceptions about coding accuracy. GPs and pharmacists used the reports to conduct case reviews and directly contact patients to discuss unsafe prescribing and patient medication preferences. Finally, the reports contributed to the development of a quality culture within practices through promoting audit activity and acting as a reminder of good prescribing behaviours, promoting future patient safety initiatives, contributing to continuing professional development and improving local networks. CONCLUSIONS: This study found the reports facilitated individual case review leading to an enhanced sense of quality culture in practices where they were utilised. Our findings demonstrate that the reports were generally considered useful and have been used to support patient safety and clinical practice in specific cases.

CPRD Aurum database: Assessment of data quality and completeness of three important comorbidities.

PURPOSE: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) now provides a new medical record database, CPRD Aurum. This is the second of several studies being undertaken to assess the quality of CPRD Aurum data for research. METHODS: We included patients aged 20+, with at least one lab test result of any type from a random sample of 50 000 patients in CPRD Aurum. We assessed whether diagnosis codes for type 2 diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and iron deficiency or unspecified anemia were accompanied by supporting codes including lab results and treatments (correctness) and whether lab results, treatments, or other codes indicate a missing diagnosis record (completeness). RESULTS: Among 37 502 patients in CPRD Aurum, correctness of type 2 diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and anemia diagnoses was high (99%, 93%, and 97%, respectively). Completeness was only high for type 2 diabetes (94%-98%); completeness for hypercholesterolemia and anemia diagnoses was modest even when the presence of treatments and lab results indicated the conditions were likely present (51%-59% and 58%-70%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that for studies of type 2 diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and iron deficiency or unspecified anemia, the diagnosis code is likely to be correct where present. However, a significant proportion of cases of hyperlipidemia or anemia will be missed if only diagnosis codes are used to select patients with these conditions. Researchers should consider using treatments, supporting codes, and, when available, lab data to supplement diagnosis codes and enhance case capture when including these conditions in studies using CPRD Aurum.

Ability of Primary Care Health Databases to Assess Medicinal Products Discussed by the European Union Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee.

This study measured the exposure to different categories of medicinal products discussed by the European Union (EU) Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee from September to November 2018 in four electronic primary care health databases: IQVIA Medical Research Data-UK, IQVIA Medical Research Data-France, IQVIA Medical Research Data-Germany, and Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, in the entire lifespan of each database until August 31, 2018. The assessment of 83 centrally authorized products and 45 nationally authorized products showed that coverage was better for products marketed for longer duration and worse for orphan drugs. The ability to detect associations against hypothetical comparators was better for more common events and for larger effect sizes. Coverage of advanced therapies was worse for those typically administered in a specialized rather than primary care setting. This study shows that to enable better informed regulatory decisions there is a need to access complementary data sources, particularly capturing secondary care prescribing.

Association between inactivated influenza vaccine and primary care consultations for autoimmune rheumatic disease flares: a self-controlled case series study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

ObjectivesTo examine the association between inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) administration and primary care consultation for joint pain, rheumatoid arthritis (RA) flare, corticosteroid prescription, vasculitis and unexplained fever in people with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRDs). METHODS: We undertook within-person comparisons using self-controlled case-series methodology. AIRD cases who received the IIV and had an outcome of interest in the same influenza cycle were ascertained in Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The influenza cycle was partitioned into exposure periods (1-14 days prevaccination and 0-14, 15-30, 31-60 and 61-90 days postvaccination), with the remaining time-period classified as non-exposed. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% CI for different outcomes were calculated. RESULTS: Data for 14 928 AIRD cases (69% women, 80% with RA) were included. There was no evidence for association between vaccination and primary care consultation for RA flare, corticosteroid prescription, fever or vasculitis. On the contrary, vaccination associated with reduced primary care consultation for joint pain in the subsequent 90 days (IRR 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.94)). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence for a significant association between vaccination and primary care consultation for most surrogates of increased disease activity or vaccine adverse-effects in people with AIRDs. It adds to the accumulating evidence to support influenza vaccination in AIRDs.

An audit of healthcare provision in internally displaced population camps in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflict in Nigeria resulted in more than 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). IDPs live in poor conditions lacking basic resources with variable provision across different locations. This audit aimed to determine the health-related resources available to IDPs in camp-like settings in Nigeria and whether these met international standards. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional study approach, information was collected in nine camps across seven states from camp managers, and direct observation in September-October 2016. The Sphere minimum standards in humanitarian crises were used as the audit standards. FINDINGS: The 5 of 15 assessed standards were met to some extent, including the availability of water and shelter. Sanitation and vaccination were unmet in five camps, with severe overcrowding in five camps, and inadequate waste disposal in all camps. Health programme implementation was uneven, and especially poor in self-settled and dispersed settlements. CONCLUSION: Inequality in distribution of humanitarian support was observed across different settings, which could lead to a higher likelihood of water, food and air-related diseases and thereby, a poorer quality of life for IDPs. Ensuring standardized health assessments could promote a more even distribution of resources across IDP locations.

Antiviral treatment for outpatient use during an influenza pandemic: a decision tree model of outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have acquired antiviral stockpiles for pandemic influenza mitigation and a significant part of the stockpile may be focussed towards community-based treatment. METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet-based, decision tree model to assess outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment for outpatient use from the perspective of the healthcare payer in the UK. We defined five pandemic scenarios-one based on the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic and four hypothetical scenarios varying in measures of transmissibility and severity. RESULTS: Community-based antiviral treatment was estimated to avert 14-23% of hospitalizations in an overall population of 62.28 million. Higher proportions of averted outcomes were seen in patients with high-risk conditions, when compared to non-high-risk patients. We found that antiviral treatment was cost-saving across pandemic scenarios for high-risk population groups, and cost-saving for the overall population in higher severity influenza pandemics. Antiviral effectiveness had the greatest influence on both the number of hospitalizations averted and on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that across pandemic scenarios, antiviral treatment can be cost-saving for population groups at high risk of influenza-related complications.

Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.

Objectives: The stockpiling of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza is a significant public health policy decision that must be made despite a lack of conclusive evidence from randomised controlled trials regarding the effectiveness of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence. Methods: A decision model for stockpiling was designed. Data on previous pandemic influenza epidemiology was combined with data on the effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality obtained from a recent individual participant meta-analysis using observational data. Evidence synthesis techniques and a bias modelling method for observational data were used to incorporate the evidence into the model. The stockpiling decision was modelled for adults (≥16 years old) and the United Kingdom was used as an example. The main outcome was the expected net benefits of stockpiling in monetary terms. Health benefits were estimated from deaths averted through stockpiling. Results: After adjusting for biases in the estimated effectiveness of NAIs, the expected net benefit of stockpiling in the baseline analysis was £444 million, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY ($31,000/QALY). The decision would therefore be to stockpile NAIs. There was a greater probability that the stockpile would not be utilised than utilised. However, the rare but catastrophic losses from a severe pandemic justified the decision to stockpile. Conclusions: Taking into account the available epidemiological data and evidence of effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality, including potential biases, a decision maker should stockpile anti-influenza medication in keeping with the postulated decision rule.

Development of processes allowing near real-time refinement and validation of triage tools during the early stage of an outbreak in readiness for surge: the FLU-CATs Study.

BACKGROUND: During pandemics of novel influenza and outbreaks of emerging infections, surge in health-care demand can exceed capacity to provide normal standards of care. In such exceptional circumstances, triage tools may aid decisions in identifying people who are most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. Rapid research during the early phase of an outbreak should allow refinement and validation of triage tools so that in the event of surge a valid tool is available. The overarching study aim is to conduct a prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments of influenza-like illness (ILI) using primary care electronic health records (EHRs) during a pandemic. This abstract summarises the preparatory work, infrastructure development, user testing and proof-of-concept study. OBJECTIVES: (1) In preparation for conducting rapid research in the early phase of a future outbreak, to develop processes that allow near real-time analysis of general practitioner (GP) assessments of people presenting with ILI, management decisions and patient outcomes. (2) As proof of concept: conduct a pilot study evaluating the performance of the triage tools 'Community Assessment Tools' and 'Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score' to predict hospital admission and death in patients presenting with ILI to GPs during inter-pandemic winter seasons. DESIGN: Prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments and anonymised linkage to data from EHRs. User experience was evaluated by semistructured interviews with participating GPs. SETTING: Thirty GPs in England, Wales and Scotland, participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: All people presenting with ILI. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Study outcome is proof of concept through demonstration of data capture and near real-time analysis. Primary patient outcomes were hospital admission within 24 hours and death (all causes) within 30 days of GP assessment. Secondary patient outcomes included GP decision to prescribe antibiotics and/or influenza-specific antiviral drugs and/or refer to hospital - if admitted, the need for higher levels of care and length of hospital stay. DATA SOURCES: Linked anonymised data from a web-based structured clinical assessment and primary care EHRs. RESULTS: In the 24 months to April 2015, data from 704 adult and 159 child consultations by 30 GPs were captured. GPs referred 11 (1.6%) adults and six (3.8%) children to hospital. There were 13 (1.8%) deaths of adults and two (1.3%) of children. There were too few outcome events to draw any conclusions regarding the performance of the triage tools. GP interviews showed that although there were some difficulties with installation, the web-based data collection tool was quick and easy to use. Some GPs felt that a minimal monetary incentive would promote participation. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed processes that allow capture and near real-time automated analysis of GP's clinical assessments and management decisions of people presenting with ILI. FUTURE WORK: We will develop processes to include other EHR systems, attempt linkage to data on influenza surveillance and maintain processes in readiness for a future outbreak. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as ISRCTN87130712 and UK Clinical Research Network 12827. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. MGS is supported by the UK NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections.

An evaluation of community assessment tools (CATs) in predicting use of clinical interventions and severe outcomes during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic.

During severe influenza pandemics healthcare demand can exceed clinical capacity to provide normal standards of care. Community Assessment Tools (CATs) could provide a framework for triage decisions for hospital referral and admission. CATs have been developed based on evidence that supports the recognition of severe influenza and pneumonia in the community (including resource limited settings) for adults, children and infants, and serious feverish illness in children. CATs use six objective criteria and one subjective criterion, any one or more of which should prompt urgent referral and admission to hospital. A retrospective evaluation of the ability of CATs to predict use of hospital-based interventions and patient outcomes in a pandemic was made using the first recorded routine clinical assessment on or shortly after admission from 1520 unselected patients (800 female, 480 children <16 years) admitted with PCR confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (the FLU-CIN cohort). Outcome measures included: any use of supplemental oxygen; mechanical ventilation; intravenous antibiotics; length of stay; intensive or high dependency care; death; and "severe outcome" (combined: use of intensive or high dependency care or death during admission). Unadjusted and multivariable analyses were conducted for children (age <16 years) and adults. Each CATs criterion independently identified both use of clinical interventions that would in normal circumstances only be provided in hospital and patient outcome measures. "Peripheral oxygen saturation ≤ 92% breathing air, or being on oxygen" performed well in predicting use of resources and outcomes for both adults and children; supporting routine measurement of peripheral oxygen saturation when assessing severity of disease. In multivariable analyses the single subjective criterion in CATs "other cause for clinical concern" independently predicted death in children and in adults predicted length of stay, mechanical ventilation and "severe outcome"; supporting the role of clinical acumen as an important independent predictor of serious illness.