At the Intersection of Adverse Life Course Pathways: The Effects on Health by Migration Status.

Adverse life events are major causes of declining health and well-being, but the effects vary across subpopulations. We analyze how the intersection of migration status and sex relates to two main adverse life events-job loss and divorce-thereby affecting individual health and well-being trajectories. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017), we apply descriptive techniques and individual fixed-effects regressions to analyze how job loss and divorce influence the health of immigrants and nonimmigrants. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrants suffer more from adverse life events than nonimmigrants in both the short and the long run. Relative to nonimmigrants, immigrants have a health advantage at younger ages, which becomes a disadvantage at older ages, and this faster decline at older ages is particularly steep among immigrants who experience adverse life events. These results help explain the vanishing health advantage of immigrants by showing that they are exposed to a double disadvantage over the life course: immigrants are more likely than nonimmigrants to suffer from adverse life events, such as job loss, and these events typically have a larger impact on their health. Our findings are the first to provide evidence regarding the consequences of different adverse life events and how they relate to the intersection of migration status and sex. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of intersectional analyses in research on immigrant health.

Inequalities in Disability-Free and Disabling Multimorbid Life Expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States (US). We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education. METHODS: Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of 2 or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated. DISCUSSION: Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa.

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Cognitive impairment and partnership status in the United States, 1998-2016, by sex, race/ethnicity, and education.

Cognitively impaired adults without a partner are highly disadvantaged, as partners constitute an important source of caregiving and emotional support. With the application of innovative multistate models to the Health and Retirement Study, this paper is the first to estimate joint expectancies of cognitive and partnership status at age 50 by sex, race/ethnicity, and education in the United States. We find that women live a decade longer unpartnered than men. Women are also disadvantaged as they experience three more years as both cognitively impaired and unpartnered than men. Black women live over twice as long as cognitively impaired and unpartnered compared with White women. Lower-educated men and women live around three and five years longer, respectively, as cognitively impaired and unpartnered than more highly educated men and women. This study addresses a novel facet of partnership and cognitive status dynamics and examines their variations by key socio-demographic factors.

The Extension of Late Working Life in Germany: Trends, Inequalities, and the East-West Divide.

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. We use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onward for the 1941‒1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; among women, variation in both employment rates and working hours are highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the German Democratic Republic legacy of high female employment.

The role of labor market inequalities in explaining the gender gap in depression risk among older US adults.

We aim to investigate to what extent gender inequality at the labor market explains higher depression risk for older US women compared to men. We analyze data from 35,699 US adults aged 50-80 years that participated in the Health and Retirement Study. The gender gap is calculated as the difference in prevalence in elevated depressive symptoms (score ≥ 3 on the 8-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) between women and men. We employ a dynamic causal decomposition and simulate the life course of a synthetic cohort from ages 50-80 with the longitudinal g-formula and introduce four nested interventions by assigning women the same probabilities of A) being in an employment category, B) occupation class, C) current income and D) prior income group as men, conditional on women's health and family status until age 70. The gender gap in depression risk is 2.9%-points at ages 50-51 which increases to 7.6%-points at ages 70-71. Intervention A decreases the gender gap over ages 50-71 by 1.2%-points (95%CI for change: 2.81 to 0.4), intervention D by 1.64%-points (95%CI for change: 3.28 to -0.15) or 32% (95%CI: 1.39 to 62.83), and the effects of interventions B and C are in between those of A and D. The impact is particularly large for Hispanics and low educated groups. Gender inequalities at the labor market substantially explain the gender gap in depression risk in older US adults. Reducing these inequalities has the potential to narrow the gender gap in depression.

Birth size, school performance and family social position: a study of 650,000 children.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (BW) is associated with lower cognitive functioning, but less is known of these associations across the full range of the BW distribution and its components. We analyzed how BW, birth length (BL) and birth ponderal index (BPI, kg/m3) are associated with school performance and how childhood family social position modifies these associations. METHODS: Medical birth records of all Finnish children born in 1987-1997 were linked to school performance records at 16 years of age (N = 642,425). We used population averaged and within-siblings fixed-effects linear regression models. RESULTS: BL showed a linear and BW a curvilinear association with school performance whereas for BPI the association was weak. The strongest association was found for BL explaining 0.08% of the variation in school performance in boys and 0.14% in girls. Demographic, gestational and social factors partly explained these associations. Similar but weaker associations were found within sibships. The association of BL with school performance was stronger at lower levels of family social position. CONCLUSION: BL shows a linear association with school performance and can explain more school performance variation than BW. At the population level, BL can offer useful information on intrauterine environmental factors relevant for cognitive performance. IMPACT: Birth length is linearly associated with school performance in late adolescence and explains a larger proportion of school performance variation than birth weight. The association between birth length and school performance is stronger in families with lower socio-economic position. At the population level, birth length can offer information on the intrauterine environment relevant for later cognitive performance.

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

US Racial-Ethnic Mortality Gap Adjusted for Population Structure.

BACKGROUND: US racial-ethnic mortality disparities are well documented and central to debates on social inequalities in health. Standard measures, such as life expectancy or years of life lost, are based on synthetic populations and do not account for the real underlying populations experiencing the inequalities. METHODS: We analyze US mortality disparities comparing Asian Americans, Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans/Alaska Natives to Whites using 2019 CDC and NCHS data, using a novel approach that estimates the mortality gap, adjusted for population structure by accounting for real-population exposures. This measure is tailored for analyses where age structures are fundamental, not merely a confounder. We highlight the magnitude of inequalities by comparing the population structure-adjusted mortality gap against standard metrics' estimates of loss of life due to leading causes. RESULTS: Based on the population structure-adjusted mortality gap, Black and Native American mortality disadvantage exceedsmortality from circulatory diseases. The disadvantage is 72% among Blacks (men: 47%, women: 98%) and 65% among Native Americans (men: 45%, women: 92%), larger than life expectancy measured disadvantage. In contrast, estimated advantages for Asian Americans are over three times (men: 176%, women: 283%) and, for Hispanics, two times (men: 123%; women: 190%) larger than those based on life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality inequalities based on standard metrics' synthetic populations can differ markedly from estimates of the population structure-adjusted mortality gap. We demonstrate that standard metrics underestimate racial-ethnic disparities through disregarding actual population age structures. Exposure-corrected measures of inequality may better inform health policies around allocation of scarce resources.

The gendered impacts of delayed parenthood: A dynamic analysis of young adulthood.

Young adulthood is a dynamic and demographically dense stage in the life course. This poses a challenge for research on the socioeconomic consequences of parenthood timing, which most often focuses on women. We chart the dynamics of delayed parenthood and its implications for educational and labor market trajectories for young adult women and men using a novel longitudinal analysis approach, the parametric g-formula. This method allows the estimation of both population-averaged effects (among all women and men) and average treatment effects (among mothers and fathers). Based on high-quality data from Finnish registers, we find that later parenthood exacerbates the educational advantage of women in comparison to men and attenuates the income advantage of men in comparison to women across young adult ages. Gender differences in the consequences of delayed parenthood on labor market trajectories are largely not explained by changes in educational trajectories. Moreover, at the time of entering parenthood, delayed parenthood improves the incomes of fathers more than those of mothers, thereby exacerbating existing gender differences. The results provide population-level evidence on how the delay of parenthood has contributed to the strengthening of women's educational position relative to that of men. Further, the findings on greater increases in fathers' than mothers' incomes at the time of entering parenthood, as followed by postponement, may help explain why progress in achieving gender equality in the division of paid and unpaid work in families has been slow.

Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe.

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women's completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women's fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.

Working and disability expectancies at older ages: The role of childhood circumstances and education.

The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008-2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by number of childhood disadvantages, gender, and race/ethnicity. Our findings indicate that number of childhood disadvantages is negatively associated with work and positively with disability, irrespective of gender and race/ethnicity. Childhood disadvantages intersect with low education resulting in shorter lives, and redistributing life years from work to disability. Among the highly educated, health and work differences between groups of childhood disadvantage are small. Combining multistate models and inverse probability weighting, we show that the return of high education is greater among the most disadvantaged.

Estimating the number and length of episodes in disability using a Markov chain approach.

BACKGROUND: Markov models are a key tool for calculating expected time spent in a state, such as active life expectancy and disabled life expectancy. In reality, individuals often enter and exit states recurrently, but standard analytical approaches are not able to describe this dynamic. We develop an analytical matrix approach to calculating the expected number and length of episodes spent in a state. METHODS: The approach we propose is based on Markov chains with rewards. It allows us to identify the number of entries into a state and to calculate the average length of episodes as total time in a state divided by the number of entries. For sampling variance estimation, we employ the block bootstrap. Two case studies that are based on published literature illustrate how our methods can provide new insights into disability dynamics. RESULTS: The first application uses a classic textbook example on prednisone treatment and liver functioning among liver cirrhosis patients. We replicate well-known results of no association between treatment and survival or recovery. Our analysis of the episodes of normal liver functioning delivers the new insight that the treatment reduced the likelihood of relapse and extended episodes of normal liver functioning. The second application assesses frailty and disability among elderly people. We replicate the prior finding that frail individuals have longer life expectancy in disability. As a novel finding, we document that frail individuals experience three times as many episodes of disability that were on average twice as long as the episodes of nonfrail individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a simple analytical approach for calculating the number and length of episodes in Markov chain models. The results allow a description of the transition dynamics that goes beyond the results that can be obtained using standard tools for Markov chains. Empirical applications using published data illustrate how the new method is helpful in unraveling the dynamics of the modeled process.

The changing contribution of childhood social characteristics to mortality: a comparison of Finnish cohorts born in 1936-50 and 1961-75.

BACKGROUND: Life course epidemiology suggests that early life circumstances affect adult mortality, but most of the evidence is based on cohorts born in the beginning of the 20th century. It remains unclear whether and how the influences of early life circumstances on mortality have changed in later birth cohorts. METHODS: Analyses rely on 10% register-based samples of households drawn from the 1950 and the 1975 Finnish censuses, with consistent follow-up of socioeconomic and housing-related characteristics and early mid-life mortality (at ages 30-55 years). We estimate survival models for the associations between childhood circumstances and all-cause, internal and external mortality for cohorts born in 1936-50 and 1961-75 adjusting for attained social characteristics. We estimate sibling intraclass correlations as summary measures of all early life and familial influences. RESULTS: Adverse childhood social circumstances were typically associated with about 10-30% excess cause-specific mortality. These associations were almost fully attenuated by adjustment for achieved later life social characteristics. Early life influences have grown over time for mortality from external causes, particularly as related to home ownership and family type. Differentials have remained stable for internal causes. The intraclass correlations further confirmed the increasing association of early life circumstances on external-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses show that the associations between childhood characteristics and mid-life mortality are substantial and almost fully mediated by achieved adult social characteristics. The increase in the contribution of childhood circumstances to mid-life mortality is driven by ever stronger associations with external causes of death.

Cognitive impairment in the U.S.: Lifetime risk, age at onset, and years impaired.

Prior studies have analyzed the burden of cognitive impairment, but often use potentially biased prevalence-based methods or measure only years lived with impairment, without estimating other relevant metrics. We use the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014; n = 29,304) and the preferred incidence-based Markov-chain models to assess three key measures of the burden of cognitive impairment: lifetime risk, mean age at onset, and number of years lived impaired. We analyze both mild and severe cognitive impairment (dementia) and gender, racial/ethnic, and educational variation in impairment. Our results paint a multi-dimensional picture of cognitive health, presenting the first comprehensive analysis of the burden of cognitive impairment for the U.S. population age 50 and older. Approximately two out of three Americans experience some level of cognitive impairment at an average age of approximately 70 years. For dementia, lifetime risk for women (men) is 37% (24%) and mean age at onset 83 (79) years. Women can expect to live 4.2 years with mild impairment and 3.2 with dementia, men 3.5 and 1.8 years. A critical finding is that for the most advantaged groups (i.e., White and/or higher educated), cognitive impairment is both delayed and compressed toward the very end of life. In contrast, despite the shorter lives of disadvantaged subgroups (Black and/or lower educated), they experience a younger age of onset, higher lifetime risk, and more years cognitively impaired. For example, men with at least an Associate degree have 21% lifetime dementia risk, compared to 35% among men with less than high school education. White women have 6 years of cognitively-impaired life expectancy, compared to 12 and 13 years among Black women and Latinas. These educational and racial/ethnic gradients highlight the very uneven burden of cognitive impairment. Further research is required to identify the mechanisms driving these disparities in cognitive impairment.

Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States: A Register-Based Study Using Social Security Administration Data.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the length of working life, even though it is a key indicator for policy-makers. In this paper, we study how the length of working life at age 50 has developed in the United States from a cohort perspective. METHODS: We use a large longitudinal sample of U.S. Social Security register data that covers close to 1.7 million individuals of the cohorts born from 1920 to 1965. For all of these cohorts, we study the employment trajectories and working life expectancy (WLE) at age 50 by gender and nativity (native-born/foreign-born). For the cohorts with employment trajectories that are only incompletely observed, we borrow information from older cohorts to predict their WLE. RESULTS: The length of working life has been increasing for the native-born males and females, and the younger cohorts worked longer than the older cohorts. However, WLE might soon peak, and then stall. The gap in WLE between the native-born and the foreign-born has increased over time, although latter group might be able to catch up in the coming years. DISCUSSION: Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers.

Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe.

Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility-development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed.

The relationship between living arrangements and higher use of hospital care at middle and older ages: to what extent do observed and unobserved individual characteristics explain this association?

BACKGROUND: Previous research has shown that certain living arrangements, such as living alone, are associated with worse health at older ages. We assessed the association between living arrangements and hospital care use among middle-aged and older adults, and investigated to what extent observed and unobserved individual characteristics explain this association. METHODS: Longitudinal Finnish registry data for men and women aged 50-89 years were used for the period 1987-2007. The relationship between living arrangements (based on whether an individual lived with a partner, other adults or alone, and whether they lived with minor/adult children) and heavy hospital care use (i.e., having been in hospital for 8 or more days in a year) was studied. First, we applied logistic regression models and linear probability models controlling for observed time-invariant factors (socioeconomic status measured by education, labour force status, and household income; and marital status), and then individual linear probability models with fixed-effects to further account for unobserved time-invariant individual characteristics in the measurement period. Analyses were done separately for 10 year age-groups. RESULTS: In the logistic regression models, men and women who lived alone had higher crude odds of heavy hospital care use than those living only with their partner. These odds ratios were highest for men and women in the youngest age category (50-59 years, 1.72 and 1.36 respectively) and decreased with age. Adjusting for observed time-invariant socioeconomic status attenuated these odds by 14-40%, but adjusting for marital status did not affect the results. Lower odds were observed among adults aged 50-59 years who lived with their partner and (minor or adult) children. But odds were higher for individuals aged 60-79 years who co-resided with their adult children, regardless of whether they lived with a partner. Adjusting for observed time-invariant factors generally did not change these results. After further adjusting for unobserved time-invariant individual characteristics in the individual fixed-effects models, most of these associations largely attenuated or disappeared, particularly for ages 80-89 years. CONCLUSIONS: The association between living arrangements and higher use of hospital care at middle and older ages is largely explained by socioeconomic disadvantage and unobserved time-invariant individual characteristics.

How do age and major risk factors for mortality interact over the life-course? Implications for health disparities research and public health policy.

A critical question in life-course research is whether the relationship between a risk factor and mortality strengthens, weakens, or remains constant with age. The objective of this paper is to shed light on the importance of measurement scale in examining this question. Many studies address this question solely on the multiplicative (relative) scale and report that the hazard ratio of dying associated with a risk factor declines with age. A wide set of risk factors have been shown to conform to this pattern including those that are socioeconomic, behavioral, and physiological in nature. Drawing from well-known principles on interpreting statistical interactions, we show that evaluations on the additive (absolute) scale often lead to a different set of conclusions about how the association between a risk factor and mortality changes with age than interpretations on the multiplicative scale. We show that on the additive scale the excess death risks posed by key socio-demographic and behavioral risk factors increase with age. Studies have not generally recognized the additive interpretation, but it has relevancy for testing life-course theories and informing public health interventions. We discuss these implications and provide general guidance on choosing a scale. Data from the U.S. National Health Interview Survey are used to provide empirical support.

Secular changes in the association between advanced maternal age and the risk of low birth weight: A cross-cohort comparison in the UK.

Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child health and advanced maternal age. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus on this issue is changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at an advanced age. This is the first study to investigate secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers and in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies, covering births from 1958 to 2001, and use low birth weight (LBW) as a marker for child health. We find that across successive birth cohorts, the negative association between advanced maternal age and LBW becomes progressively weaker; and that this pattern is partially explained by secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers. Our results suggest that associations between maternal age and child outcomes are tied to a specific population and point in time.