Risk factors for vitamin D deficiency in Abu Dhabi Emirati population.

OBJECTIVE: There have been concerns regarding the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in the United Arab Emirates and the association between this prevalence and cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D deficiency is a global public health problem, with a high prevalence in the Abu Dhabi national population. This cross-sectional retrospective observational study aimed to elucidate vitamin D deficiency symptoms and contributing factors in this context. METHOD AND SAMPLING: Among 12346 participants presenting for their Weqaya population comprehensive cardiovascular risk factor screening, 700 were randomly selected and telephoned, among whom 400 completed a questionnaire that elicited information on dietary intake, sun exposure, clothing, physical activity, and symptoms related to vitamin D deficiency. RESULTS: Higher vitamin D levels were noted in participants who consumed extra servings of cod liver oil, tuna, salmon, and eggs; who wore clothes with their arms and legs exposed; and who performed daily physical activity. Symptoms of hypovitaminosis D (bone pain) were more frequently found in females. Fatigue is significantly associated with low vitamin D and younger participants. Strategies focusing on health promotion and lifestyle interventions should be implemented to address vitamin D deficiency.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity During the First and Second Viral Waves in 2020 and 2021 Among Canadian Adults.

Importance: The incidence of infection during SARS-CoV-2 viral waves, the factors associated with infection, and the durability of antibody responses to infection among Canadian adults remain undocumented. Objective: To assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first 2 viral waves in Canada by measuring seropositivity among adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Action to Beat Coronavirus study conducted 2 rounds of an online survey about COVID-19 experience and analyzed immunoglobulin G levels based on participant-collected dried blood spots (DBS) to assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first and second viral waves in Canada. A sample of 19 994 Canadian adults (aged ≥18 years) was recruited from established members of the Angus Reid Forum, a public polling organization. The study comprised 2 phases (phase 1 from May 1 to September 30, 2020, and phase 2 from December 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021) that generally corresponded to the first (April 1 to July 31, 2020) and second (October 1, 2020, to March 1, 2021) viral waves. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G seropositivity (using a chemiluminescence assay) by major geographic and demographic variables and correlation with COVID-19 symptom reporting. Results: Among 19 994 adults who completed the online questionnaire in phase 1, the mean (SD) age was 50.9 (15.4) years, and 10 522 participants (51.9%) were female; 2948 participants (14.5%) had self-identified racial and ethnic minority group status, and 1578 participants (8.2%) were self-identified Indigenous Canadians. Among participants in phase 1, 8967 had DBS testing. In phase 2, 14 621 adults completed online questionnaires, and 7102 of those had DBS testing. Of 19 994 adults who completed the online survey in phase 1, fewer had an educational level of some college or less (4747 individuals [33.1%]) compared with the general population in Canada (45.0%). Survey respondents were otherwise representative of the general population, including in prevalence of known risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among unvaccinated adults increased from 1.9% in phase 1 to 6.5% in phase 2. The seropositivity pattern was demographically and geographically heterogeneous during phase 1 but more homogeneous by phase 2 (with a cumulative incidence ranging from 6.4% to 7.0% in most regions). The exception was the Atlantic region, in which cumulative incidence reached only 3.3% (odds ratio [OR] vs Ontario, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-1.02). A total of 47 of 188 adults (25.3%) reporting COVID-19 symptoms during phase 2 were seropositive, and the OR of seropositivity for COVID-19 symptoms was 6.15 (95% CI, 2.02-18.69). In phase 2, 94 of 444 seropositive adults (22.2%) reported having no symptoms. Of 134 seropositive adults in phase 1 who were retested in phase 2, 111 individuals (81.8%) remained seropositive. Participants who had a history of diabetes (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38-0.90) had lower odds of having detectable antibodies in phase 2. Conclusions and Relevance: The Action to Beat Coronavirus study found that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Canada was modest until March 2021, and this incidence was lower than the levels of population immunity required to substantially reduce transmission of the virus. Ongoing vaccination efforts remain central to reducing viral transmission and mortality. Assessment of future infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity is practicable through the use of serial online surveys and participant-collected DBS.

Global burden of maternal and congenital syphilis and associated adverse birth outcomes-Estimates for 2016 and progress since 2012.

BACKGROUND: In 2007 the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the global initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis (congenital syphilis, or CS). To assess progress towards the goal of <50 CS cases per 100,000 live births, we generated regional and global estimates of maternal and congenital syphilis for 2016 and updated the 2012 estimates. METHODS: Maternal syphilis estimates were generated using the Spectrum-STI model, fitted to sentinel surveys and routine testing of pregnant women during antenatal care (ANC) and other representative population data. Global and regional estimates of CS used the same approach as previous WHO estimates. RESULTS: The estimated global maternal syphilis prevalence in 2016 was 0.69% (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.81%) resulting in a global CS rate of 473 (385-561) per 100,000 live births and 661,000 (538,000-784,000) total CS cases, including 355,000 (290,000-419,000) adverse birth outcomes (ABO) and 306,000 (249,000-363,000) non-clinical CS cases (infants without clinical signs born to un-treated mothers). The ABOs included 143,000 early fetal deaths and stillbirths, 61,000 neonatal deaths, 41,000 preterm or low-birth weight births, and 109,000 infants with clinical CS. Of these ABOs- 203,000 (57%) occurred in pregnant women attending ANC but not screened for syphilis; 74,000 (21%) in mothers not enrolled in ANC, 55,000 (16%) in mothers screened but not treated, and 23,000 (6%) in mothers enrolled, screened and treated. The revised 2012 estimates were 0.70% (95% CI: 0.63-0.77%) maternal prevalence, and 748,000 CS cases (539 per 100,000 live births) including 397,000 (361,000-432,000) ABOs. The estimated decrease in CS case rates between 2012 and 2016 reflected increased access to ANC and to syphilis screening and treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Congenital syphilis decreased worldwide between 2012 and 2016, although maternal prevalence was stable. Achieving global CS elimination, however, will require improving access to early syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, clinically monitoring all women diagnosed with syphilis and their infants, improving partner management, and reducing syphilis prevalence in the general population by expanding testing, treatment and partner referral beyond ANC.

HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemiological synergy: misguided observational evidence? A modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether observational studies of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections have the capacity to assess the HIV/HSV-2 epidemiological synergy. METHODS: An individual-based Monte Carlo model was used to simulate HIV/HSV-2 epidemics in two scenarios: no HIV/HSV-2 biological interaction and HSV-2 seropositivity enhancing HIV acquisition. Cross-sectional observational studies were simulated by sampling individuals from the population to assess resulting crude and adjusted ORs of the HIV/HSV-2 association. Meta-analyses were conducted to estimate the pooled mean ORs. Impact of under-reporting of sexual behaviour and miscapture of high-risk individuals was assessed through sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Assuming no HIV/HSV-2 biological interaction, the crude HIV/HSV-2 OR ranged between 1.38 and 9.93, with a pooled mean of 6.45 (95% CI 5.81 to 7.17). Adjustment for the number of sexual partners over last year, over lifetime and for both partner numbers simultaneously reduced the mean OR to 5.45 (95% CI 4.90 to 6.06), 3.70 (95% CI 3.32 to 4.12) and 3.54 (95% CI 3.17 to 3.94), respectively. Assuming HIV/HSV-2 biological interaction, the crude OR ranged between 3.44 and 9.95, with a pooled mean of 8.05 (95% CI 7.14 to 9.07). The adjustments reduced the mean OR to 7.00 (95% CI 6.21 to 7.90), 3.76 (95% CI 3.32 to 4.25) and 3.68 (95% CI 3.25 to 4.17), respectively. Under-reporting of partners reduced the confounder-adjustment effects. Miscapture of high-risk individuals considerably lowered the estimated ORs. CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult to control for sexual-behaviour confounding in observational studies. The observed HIV/HSV-2 association appears more consistent with two infections sharing the same mode of transmission, rather than with HSV-2 enhancing HIV acquisition.

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex. METHODS: An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data. RESULTS: Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) and 0.77 (0.68-0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52-0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01-0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex. CONCLUSIONS: Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.

Comparison between short- and long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in hemodialysis patients: target hemoglobin, variability, and outcome.

PURPOSE: Maintaining target hemoglobin (Hb) with minimal variability is a challenge in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study is to compare the long- and short-acting erythropoietin-stimulating agents such as Aranesp and Eprex in achieving these targets. METHODS: Randomized, prospective, open-labeled study of 24 weeks includes stable patients on HD >3 months, age >18 years, and on Eprex for >3 months. Patients were randomized into two groups: A-(Aranesp group):HD patients on Eprex Q TIW or BIW were converted to Aranesp Q weekly, by using the conversion factor of 200:1 and those on Eprex Q weekly to Aranesp Q 2 weeks; B-(Eprex group):patients continued on Eprex treatment. Hemoglobin target was set at (105-125 g/l). Primary end points were percentage of patients achieving target Hb, hemoglobin variability, and number of dose changes in each group. RESULTS: This study consisted of 139 HD patients: 72 in the Aranesp and 67 in the Eprex-mean (SD) age 54 (16.2) years, 77 (55 %) males. About 46 % were diabetic. Target Hb achieved in 64.8 % of the Aranesp and 59.7 % in the Eprex (p = 0.006). Hb variability was less frequent in the Aranesp group (p = 0.2). Mean number of dose changes was 1.3 (0.87) in the Aranesp and 1.9 (1.2) in the Eprex (p < 0.001). There was 1 vascular access thrombosis in the Aranesp and 8 in the Eprex (p < 0.001). There was no difference in hospitalization and death number between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Aranesp Q weekly or every 2 weeks is more efficient in achieving target Hb, with less dose changes and minor vascular access complications.

The potential impact of an HIV vaccine with limited protection on HIV incidence in Thailand: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The RV144 trial on the ALVAC/AIDSVAX candidate HIV vaccine, carried out in Thailand, showed short-lived protection against infection. METHODS: Using a deterministic compartmental model we explored the potential impact of this vaccine on heterosexual HIV transmission in Thailand. Both one-off vaccination strategies, as well as strategies with regular boosting, either annually or every two years, were explored. Both targeting the general adult population and prioritizing sex workers were modeled. The impact of risk compensation among high risk groups, as well as whether higher levels of safe sex in high risk groups could be an alternative to vaccination, was studied. RESULTS: One-off vaccination campaigns had only transient effects, and boosting appears to be a key component of successful vaccination campaigns. Intensive vaccination campaigns may reduce HIV incidence by up to 75% after 10 years of vaccination. Targeting only sex workers has a smaller impact but has a more favorable cost-benefit ratio. Risk compensation has the potential of undoing much of the benefits of a vaccination program and may even increase incidence. In contrast, higher levels of safe sex among sex workers would provide a viable alternative to vaccinating this group. DISCUSSION: The new vaccine holds promise for controlling HIV in Thailand and similar countries. In view of the short lived protection of the vaccine, regular boosting of immunity as well as avoidance of risk compensation are essential. Targeting sex workers would achieve the greatest reduction in incidence per vaccination and may be considered for expensive vaccines but its cost-effectiveness has to be compared to alternatives.

The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: a study using the STDSIM microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: The only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence. METHODS: We used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes. RESULTS: A single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US$/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US$/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US$/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. DISCUSSION: A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model.

A successful chronic care program in Al Ain-United Arab Emirates.

BACKGROUND: The cost effective provision of quality care for chronic diseases is a major challenge for health care systems. We describe a project to improve the care of patients with the highly prevalent disorders of diabetes and hypertension, conducted in one of the major cities of the United Arab Emirates. SETTINGS AND METHODS: The project, using the principles of quality assurance cycles, was conducted in 4 stages.The assessment stage consisted of a community survey and an audit of the health care system, with particular emphasis on chronic disease care. The information gleaned from this stage provided feedback to the staff of participating health centers. In the second stage, deficiencies in health care were identified and interventions were developed for improvements, including topics for continuing professional development.In the third stage, these strategies were piloted in a single health centre for one year and the outcomes evaluated. In the still ongoing fourth stage, the project was rolled out to all the health centers in the area, with continuing evaluation. The intervention consisted of changes to establish a structured care model based on the predicted needs of this group of patients utilizing dedicated chronic disease clinics inside the existing primary health care system. These clinics incorporated decision-making tools, including evidence-based guidelines, patient education and ongoing professional education. RESULTS: The intervention was successfully implemented in all the health centers. The health care quality indicators that showed the greatest improvement were the documentation of patient history (e.g. smoking status and physical activity); improvement in recording physical signs (e.g. body mass index (BMI)); and an improvement in the requesting of appropriate investigations, such as HbA1c and microalbuminurea. There was also improvement in those parameters reflecting outcomes of care, which included HbA1c, blood pressure and lipid profiles. Indicators related to lifestyle changes, such as smoking cessation and BMI, failed to improve. CONCLUSION: Chronic disease care is a joint commitment by health care providers and patients. This combined approach proved successful in most areas of the project, but the area of patient self management requires further improvement.

Secular trend in height in Al Ain-United Arab Emirates.

Correlation between cycles in human stature and those in economic variables is well established. A recent review of international trends in this area provided information from most parts of the world but none on Arabs in the Middle East or more specifically the gulf region. The United Arab Emirates experienced a transformation in economic and social life followed the discovery of oil in the late 1960s and the wealth that it generated. No data is available on human growth at this period of time because its population never had health services prior to the 1970s. A study on conventional cardiovascular risk factors in 2004-2005 included 817 randomly selected national adults (> or =18 years) from both genders. The relationship between height and age in this study showed both men and women have increased in height with time demonstrating the secular change in height most likely a result of changing socioeconomic factors.

Impact of an intensive HIV prevention programme for female sex workers on HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attenders in Karnataka state, south India: an ecological analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the impact of an intensive HIV preventive intervention (IPI) among female sex workers (FSW) on community HIV transmission, as represented by HIV prevalence among young antenatal clinic (ANC) attenders in Karnataka state, south India. METHODS: The IPI was initiated in 18 of the 27 districts in Karnataka in 2003, and was generally at scale by mid-2005, covering over 80% of the urban FSW population. We examined trends over time in HIV prevalence from annual HIV surveillance conducted among ANC attenders in Karnataka under the age of 25 years from 2003 to 2007, comparing the IPI with the other districts. RESULTS: Overall, HIV prevalence among ANC attenders under 25 years of age declined from 1.40% to 0.77%. In a multivariate model, the decline in HIV prevalence in the IPI districts compared to the other districts was statistically significant (P = 0.01), with an adjusted annual odds ratio of 0.88 (95% CI 0.79-0.97). The decline in standardized HIV prevalence in the IPI districts over the period was 56%, compared to 5% in the non-IPI districts. CONCLUSIONS: Although this analysis is limited by lack of precise comparative data on intervention coverage and intensity, it supports the notion that scaled-up, intensive, targeted HIV preventive interventions among high-risk groups can have a measurable and relatively rapid impact on HIV transmission in the general population, particularly young sexually active populations as represented by ANC attenders. Such focused intervention programmes should be rapidly taken to scale in all HIV epidemics, and especially in concentrated epidemics such as in India.

Antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention in India: modeling costs and consequences of policy options.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the costs, cost-effectiveness, and HIV epidemic impact of 3 antiretroviral therapy (ART) policy options. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed an epidemiologic model to predict the course of the HIV epidemic in the absence of expanded ART availability. Based on background studies of the willingness to pay for ART among patients with AIDS, of the costs to the government of the alternative treatment interventions, and of ART's likely effects on HIV transmission, we simulated the consequences of 3 possible alternative government ART policies. RESULTS: A program to reduce the negative consequences of the currently unstructured private-sector provision of ART is the most cost-effective of the 3 options at a 10% discount rate and least cost-effective at a 3% rate. The costs and cost-effectiveness of all options are highly sensitive to the effect of ART on condom use. CONCLUSION: The design of ART policy should capitalize on the potential of ART to decrease HIV transmission through institutional arrangements that reward effective prevention programs, thereby raising the likelihood that treatment has beneficial rather than negative external effects.

Breast cancer screening, outside the population-screening program, of women from breast cancer families without proven BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations: a simulation study.

PURPOSE: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of mammography screening for women under the age of 50, from breast cancer families without proven BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations, because current criteria for screening healthy women from breast cancer families are not evidence-based. METHODS: We did simulation studies with mathematical models on the cost-effectiveness of mammography screening of women under the age of 50 with breast cancer family histories. Breast cancer screening was simulated with varying screening intervals (6, 12, 18, and 24 months) and screening cohorts (starting at ages 30, 35, 40, and 45, and continuing to age 50). Incremental costs of screening were compared with those of women ages 50 to 52 years, the youngest age group currently routinely screened in the nationwide screening program of the Netherlands, to determine cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses were done to explore the effects of model assumptions. The cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening for women over the age of 50 was not debated. RESULTS: The most effective screening interval was found to be 12 months, which, however, seems only to be cost-effective in a small group of women under the age of 50 with at least two affected relatives, including at least one affected in the first degree diagnosed under the age of 50. Significantly, early breast cancer screening never seemed to be cost-effective in women with only one affected first-degree or second-degree relative. CONCLUSION: Annual breast cancer screening with mammography for women under the age of 50 seems to be cost-effective in women with strong family histories of breast cancer, even when no BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation was found in affected family members.

Reduced risk of surgical site infections through surveillance in a network.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of multicentre surveillance for nosocomial infections on patients' risk of surgical site infection (SSI). DESIGN: Prospective multi-centre cohort study, from January 1996 to December 2000. SETTING: Acute care hospitals in The Netherlands. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: All 50 hospitals performing surveillance for one of seven selected procedures in the Dutch surveillance network for nosocomial infections PREZIES were invited. Thirty-seven hospitals participated (74%) and provided information on 21 920 operations, after which 885 (4%) SSI occurred. INTERVENTIONS: The surveillance comprised the following: Development of surveillance methodology by multidisciplinary team; use of a standardized registration protocol and software; regular training of data collectors; anonymous inter-hospital comparison of infection rates and feedback of results; appointment of one contact person per hospital, responsible for data collection; and dissemination of results to other health care professionals. Regular discussion of both successful and failing prevention strategies that had been instituted based on the surveillance results. OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk of SSI. RESULTS: The risk of infection was reduced for patients who had an operation during the fourth surveillance year (RR = 0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.52-0.89) and decreased further for patients operated on during the fifth surveillance year (RR = 0.43; CI = 0.24-0.76) as compared with patients who underwent surgery within one year of the start of surveillance in their hospital. No significant risk reduction was observed for patients operated on during the second and third surveillance years. CONCLUSION: Surveillance, supported by participation in a surveillance network, reduced the risk of SSI in surgical patients registered in the Dutch surveillance network PREZIES. Our results suggest that infection control teams need to be perseverant and that surveillance programmes should be given time before evaluation.

Quality improvement of surgical prophylaxis in Dutch hospitals: evaluation of a multi-site intervention by time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Misuse of antibiotics in surgical prophylaxis is still quite common. The objectives of this study were to reduce the quantity and improve the quality of surgical prophylaxis and to reduce costs. METHODS: Prospective multi-site study of elective procedures in 13 Dutch hospitals. The quality of prophylaxis was audited before and after an intervention consisting of performance feedback and implementation of national clinical practice guidelines. Process outcome parameters were antibiotic choice, duration, timing, antibiotic volume and costs. Segmented regression analysis was used to estimate the effect size of the intervention. Patient outcome was documented by the incidence of surgical site infections (SSI). RESULTS: Before the intervention, 1763 procedures were recorded and 2050 thereafter. Antimicrobial use decreased from 121 to 79 DDD (defined daily doses)/100 procedures and costs reduced by 25% per procedure. After the intervention, antibiotic choice was inappropriate in only 37.5% of the cases instead of in 93.5% expected cases had the intervention not occurred. Prolonged prophylaxis was observed in 31.4% instead of 46.8% expected cases and inappropriate timing in 39.4% instead of the expected 51.8%. Time series analysis showed that all improvements were statistically significant (P < 0.01) and that they could be fully attributed to the intervention. The overall SSI rates before and after intervention were 5.4% (95% CI: 4.3-6.5) and 4.6% (95% CI: 3.6-5.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention led to improved quality of surgical prophylaxis and to reduced antibiotic use and costs without impairment of patient outcome.