Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. METHODS: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. INTERPRETATION: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

Machine learning based compartment models with permeability for white matter microstructure imaging.

Some microstructure parameters, such as permeability, remain elusive because mathematical models that express their relationship to the MR signal accurately are intractable. Here, we propose to use computational models learned from simulations to estimate these parameters. We demonstrate the approach in an example which estimates water residence time in brain white matter. The residence time τi of water inside axons is a potentially important biomarker for white matter pathologies of the human central nervous system, as myelin damage is hypothesised to affect axonal permeability, and thus τi. We construct a computational model using Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning (specifically here a random forest regressor) in order to learn a mapping between features derived from diffusion weighted MR signals and ground truth microstructure parameters, including τi. We test our numerical model using simulated and in vivo human brain data. Simulation results show that estimated parameters have strong correlations with the ground truth parameters (R2={0.88,0.95,0.82,0.99}) for volume fraction, residence time, axon radius and diffusivity respectively), and provide a marked improvement over the most widely used Kärger model (R2={0.75,0.60,0.11,0.99}). The trained model also estimates sensible microstructure parameters from in vivo human brain data acquired from healthy controls, matching values found in literature, and provides better reproducibility than the Kärger model on both the voxel and ROI level. Finally, we acquire data from two Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients and compare to the values in healthy subjects. We find that in the splenium of corpus callosum (CC-S) the estimate of the residence time is 0.57±0.05s for the healthy subjects, while in the MS patient with a lesion in CC-S it is 0.33±0.12s in the normal appearing white matter (NAWM) and 0.19±0.11s in the lesion. In the corticospinal tracts (CST) the estimate of the residence time is 0.52±0.09s for the healthy subjects, while in the MS patient with a lesion in CST it is 0.56±0.05s in the NAWM and 0.13±0.09s in the lesion. These results agree with our expectations that the residence time in lesions would be lower than in NAWM because the loss of myelin should increase permeability. Overall, we find parameter estimates in the two MS patients consistent with expectations from the pathology of MS lesions demonstrating the clinical potential of this new technique.