Implementation research: a protocol for two three-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trials on continuous glucose monitoring devices in people with type 1 diabetes in South Africa and Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Self-monitoring of glucose is an essential component of type 1 diabetes (T1D) management. In recent years, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has provided an alternative to daily fingerstick testing for the optimisation of insulin dosing and general glucose management in people with T1D. While studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of CGM on clinical outcomes in the US, Europe and Australia, there are limited data available for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and further empirical evidence is needed to inform policy decision around their use in these countries. METHODS: This trial was designed as a pragmatic, parallel-group, open-label, multicentre, three-arm, randomised (1:1:1) controlled trial of continuous or periodic CGM device use versus standard of care in people with T1D in South Africa and Kenya. The primary objective of this trial will be to assess the impact of continuous or periodic CGM device use on glycaemic control as measured by change from baseline glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Additional assessments will include clinical outcomes (glucose variation, time in/below/above range), safety (adverse events, hospitalisations), quality of life (EQ-5D, T1D distress score, Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey for T1D), and health economic measures (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, quality adjusted life years). DISCUSSION: This trial aims to address the substantial evidence gap on the impact of CGM device use on clinical outcomes in LMICs, specifically South Africa and Kenya. The trial results will provide evidence to inform policy and treatment decisions in these countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05944731 (Kenya), July 6, 2023; NCT05944718 (South Africa), July 13, 2023.

Cost of SARS-CoV-2 self-test distribution programmes by different modalities: a micro-costing study in five countries (Brazil, Georgia, Malaysia, Ethiopia and the Philippines).

OBJECTIVE: Diagnostic testing is an important tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, yet access to and uptake of testing vary widely 3 years into the pandemic. The WHO recommends the use of COVID-19 self-testing as an option to help expand testing access. We aimed to calculate the cost of providing COVID-19 self-testing across countries and distribution modalities. DESIGN: We estimated economic costs from the provider perspective to calculate the total cost and the cost per self-test kit distributed for three scenarios that differed by costing period (pilot, annual), the number of tests distributed (actual, planned, scaled assuming an epidemic peak) and self-test kit costs (pilot purchase price, 50% reduction). SETTING: We used data collected between August and December 2022 in Brazil, Georgia, Malaysia, Ethiopia and the Philippines from pilot implementation studies designed to provide COVID-19 self-tests in a variety of settings-namely, workplace and healthcare facilities. RESULTS: Across all five countries, 173 000 kits were distributed during pilot implementation with the cost/test distributed ranging from $2.44 to $12.78. The cost/self-test kit distributed was lowest in the scenario that assumed implementation over a longer period (year), with higher test demand (peak) and a test kit price reduction of 50% ($1.04-3.07). Across all countries and scenarios, test procurement occupied the greatest proportion of costs: 58-87% for countries with off-site self-testing (outside the workplace, for example, home) and 15-50% for countries with on-site self-testing (at the workplace). Staffing was the next key cost driver, particularly for distribution modalities that had on-site self-testing (29-35%) versus off-site self-testing (7-27%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that it is likely to cost between $2.44 and $12.78 per test to distribute COVID-19 self-tests across common settings in five heterogeneous countries. Cost-effectiveness analyses using these results will allow policymakers to make informed decisions on optimally scaling up COVID-19 self-test distribution programmes across diverse settings and evolving needs.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies in schools: a multicountry modelling analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions. INTERVENTIONS: SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies. OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students. RESULTS: With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections.

Cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations towards the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in limited-resource settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, there has been a substantial global reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV. Despite effective interventions, gaps still remain in progress towards elimination in many low-income and middle-income countries. We developed a mathematical model to determine the most cost-effective combinations of interventions to prevent vertical transmission. METHODS: We developed a 12-month Markov model to follow a cohort of women of childbearing age (aged 15-49 years) in Zambia (n=1 107 255) who were either pregnant, in delivery, or breastfeeding; the population included in the model reflects the estimated number of pregnant women in Zambia from the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The model incorporated nine interventions: infant prophylaxis; three different HIV retesting schedule options; oral pre-exposure prophylaxis; maternal peer-support groups; regimen shift; tracing of loss to follow-up; and point-of-care viral load testing. We analysed incident HIV infections among mothers and infants, intervention costs, and evaluated 190 scenarios of different combinations of inventions to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over 1 year. FINDINGS: Three interventions with the greatest reduction in vertical transmission, individually, were support groups for 80% of those in need (35% reduction in infant infections), HIV retesting schedules (6·5% reduction), and infant prophylaxis (4·5% reduction). Of all 190 scenarios evaluated, eight were on the cost-effectiveness frontier (ie, were considered to be cost-effective); all eight included increasing infant prophylaxis, regimen shift, and use of support groups. Excluding the highest-cost scenarios, for a 1-22% increase in total budget, 23-43% of infant infections could be prevented, producing ICERs between US$244 and $16 242. INTERPRETATION: Using the interventions modelled, it is possible to reduce vertical transmission and to cost-effectively prevent up to 1734 infant HIV infections (43% reduction) in Zambia over a period of 1 year. To optimise their effect, these interventions must be scaled with fidelity. Future work is needed to incorporate evidence on additional innovative interventions and HIV risk factors, and to apply the model to other country contexts to support targeted implementation and resource use. FUNDING: The ELMA Foundation.

Provider-led community antiretroviral therapy distribution in Malawi: Retrospective cohort study of retention, viral load suppression and costs.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes of community antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution (CAD), in which provider-led ART teams deliver integrated HIV services at health posts in communities, have been mixed in sub-Saharan African countries. CAD outcomes and costs relative to facility-based care have not been reported from Malawi. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Malawian districts (Lilongwe and Chikwawa districts), comparing CAD with facility-based ART care. We selected an equal number of clients in CAD and facility-based care who were aged >13 years, had an undetectable viral load (VL) result in the last year and were stable on first-line ART for ≥1 year. We compared retention in care (alive and no period of ≥60 days without ART) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression and maintenance of VL suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) during follow-up using logistic regression. We also compared costs (in US$) from the health system and client perspectives for the two models of care. Data were collected in October and November 2020. RESULTS: 700 ART clients (350 CAD, 350 facility-based) were included. The median age was 43 years (IQR 36-51), median duration on ART was 7 years (IQR 4-9), and 75% were female. Retention in care did not differ significantly between clients in CAD (89.4% retained) and facility-based care (89.3%), p = 0.95. No significant difference in maintenance of VL suppression were observed between CAD and facility-based care (aOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.47-3.20, p = 0.70). CAD resulted in slightly higher health system costs than facility-based care: $118/year vs. $108/year per person accessing care; and $133/year vs. $122/year per person retained in care. CAD decreased individual client costs compared to facility-based care: $3.20/year vs. $11.40/year per person accessing care; and $3.60/year vs. $12.90/year per person retained in care. CONCLUSION: Clients in provider-led CAD care in Malawi had very good retention in care and VL suppression outcomes, similar to clients receiving facility-based care. While health system costs were somewhat higher with CAD, costs for clients were reduced substantially. More research is needed to understand the impact of other differentiated service delivery models on costs for the health system and clients.

Costs and outcomes of routine HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation across different service delivery models and key populations in South Africa.

Background: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly efficacious biomedical HIV prevention tool, yet despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2015, uptake and persistence remain limited in much of the world, including sub Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a dearth of evidence-based interventions to improve PrEP uptake and persistence in SSA, and the full costs of PrEP programs implemented in routine care settings remain largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the cost of delivery of daily oral PrEP, and associated outcomes, to different key and priority populations across different service delivery models (SDMs) in South Africa. Methods: We conducted bottom-up micro-costing of PrEP service delivery from the provider perspective within twelve urban SDMs providing routine PrEP services to various key and propriety populations in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces in South Africa. The SDMs included in-facility and outreach models that focused on men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). We identified all within- and above-facility activities supporting PrEP delivery, obtained input costs from program budgets, expenditure records and staff interviews, and determined individual resource usage between February 2019 and February 2020 through retrospective medical record review. Our primary outcome was PrEP coverage at six months (defined as having sufficient PrEP drug dispensed at the last visit to be covered at six months post PrEP-initiation). A subset (N=633) of all enrolled subjects had the potential for 12 months of follow-up and were included in a 12-month outcome analysis. We report the cost per client initiated on PrEP in 2021 United States Dollars (USD). Findings: We collected medical record data from 1,281 people who initiated PrEP at 12 SDMs between February and August 2019 and had at least six months of potential follow-up. The average number of visits was 2.3 for in-facility models and 1.5 for outreach models and 3,086 months of PrEP was dispensed. PrEP coverage at six months varied greatly across SDMs, from 41.8% at one MSM-focused fixed clinic to 0% in an MSM-focused outreach model. In general, in-facility programs had higher six-month coverage than outreach programs. Across all SDMs with PrEP clients with potential for 12 months of follow-up (n=633), PrEP coverage at 12 months was 13.6%, with variability between SDMs. The average six-month cost per client initiated on PrEP ranged from $29 to $590, with higher average costs generally observed for the in-facility programs ($152 in-facility versus $84 for outreach). The average monthly cost per PrEP client who had six-month PrEP coverage ranged from $18 to $160 dependent on SDM. Interpretation: This study is an important addition to the PrEP outcome and cost literature in the SSA region. Results show that costs and outcomes vary considerably across different SDMs and populations in real world PrEP programs and provide crucial information for further scale-up of the oral PrEP program in South Africa and the greater SSA region.

A modelling framework for translating discrete choice experiment results into cost-effectiveness estimates: an application to designing tailored and scalable HIV and contraceptive services for adolescents in Gauteng, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South African youth and adolescents face a high burden of (Sexually Transmitted Infections) STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancies, but uptake of services remains low. To address this, tailored and scalable interventions are urgently needed. We developed a framework to fill the gap and translate the impact of facility-level attributes into a cost-effectiveness analysis for increasing HIV/contraceptive service uptake in adolescents using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS: We used a DCE (n = 805) conducted in Gauteng, South Africa, which found that staff attitude, confidentiality, Wi-Fi, subsidized food, afternoon hours and youth-only services were preferred attributes of health services. Based on this, we simulated the uptake of services adapted for these preferences. We divided preferences into modifiable attributes that could readily be adapted (e.g. Wi-Fi), and challenging to modify (more nuanced attributes that are more challenging to cost and evaluate): staff attitude and estimated the incremental change in the uptake of services using adapted services. Costs for modifiable preferences were estimated using data from two clinics in South Africa (2019 US$). We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for additional adolescents using services of 15 intervention combinations, and report the results of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier. RESULTS: Greatest projected impact on uptake was from friendly and confidential services, both of which were considered challenging to modify (18.5% 95% CI: 13.0%-24.0%; 8.4% 95% CI: 3.0%-14.0%, respectively). Modifiable factors on their own resulted in only small increases in expected uptake. (Food: 2.3% 95% CI: 4.0%-9.00%; Wi-Fi: 3.0% 95% CI: -4.0% to 10.0%; Youth-only services: 0.3% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%; Afternoon services: 0.8% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%). The order of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier are Wi-Fi and youth-only services (ICER US$7.01-US$9.78 per additional adolescent utilizing HIV and contraceptive services), Wi-Fi, youth-only services and food (ICER US$9.32-US$10.45), followed by Wi-Fi, youth-only services and extended afternoon hours (ICER US$14.46-US$43.63). CONCLUSIONS: Combining DCE results and costing analyses within a modelling framework provides an innovative way to inform decisions on effective resource utilization. Modifiable preferences, such as Wi-Fi provision, youth-only services and subsidized food, have the potential to cost-effectively increase the proportion of adolescents accessing HIV and contraceptive services.

Health Outcomes and Cost-effectiveness of Monoclonal SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies as Pre-exposure Prophylaxis.

Importance: Pre-exposure prophylaxis with neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs PrEP) prevents infection and reduces hospitalizations and the duration thereof for COVID-19 and death among high-risk individuals. However, reduced effectiveness due to a changing SARS-CoV-2 viral landscape and high drug prices remain substantial implementation barriers. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of mAbs PrEP as COVID-19 PrEP. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this economic evaluation, a decision analytic model was developed and parameterized with health care outcome and utilization data from individuals with high risk for COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 infection probability, mAbs PrEP effectiveness, and drug pricing were varied. All costs were collected from a third-party payer perspective. Data were analyzed from September 2021 to December 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health care outcomes including new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalization, and deaths. The cost per death averted and cost-effectiveness ratios using a threshold for prevention interventions of $22 000 or less per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results: The clinical cohort consisted of 636 individuals with COVID-19 (mean [SD] age 63 [18] years; 341 [54%] male). Most individuals were at high risk for severe COVID-19, including 137 (21%) with a body mass index of 30 or higher, 60 (9.4%) with hematological malignant neoplasm, 108 (17%) post-transplantation, and 152 (23.9%) who used immunosuppressive medication before COVID-19. Within the context of a high (18%) SARS-CoV-2 infection probability and low (25%) effectiveness the model calculated a short-term reduction of 42% ward admissions, 31% intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and 34% deaths. Cost-saving scenarios were obtained with drug prices of $275 and 75% or higher effectiveness. With a 100% effectiveness mAbs PrEP can reduce ward admissions by 70%, ICU admissions by 97%, and deaths by 92%. Drug prices, however, need to reduce to $550 for cost-effectiveness ratios less than $22 000 per QALY gained per death averted and to $2200 for ratios between $22 000 and $88 000. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, use of mAbs PrEP for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections was cost-saving at the beginning of an epidemic wave (high infection probability) with 75% or higher effectiveness and drug price of $275. These results are timely and relevant for decision-makers involved in mAbs PrEP implementation. When newer mAbs PrEP combinations become available, guidance on implementation should be formulated ensuring a fast rollout. Nevertheless, advocacy for mAbs PrEP use and critical discussion on drug prices are necessary to ensuring cost-effectiveness for different epidemic settings.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

BACKGROUND: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. METHODS: Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. RESULTS: Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. CONCLUSION: The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.

Achieving HIV Epidemic Control and Improving Maternal Healthcare Services with Community-Based HIV Service Delivery in Zambia: Mixed-Methods Assessment of the SMACHT Project.

Novel community-based approaches are needed to achieve and sustain HIV epidemic control in Zambia. Under the Stop Mother and Child HIV Transmission (SMACHT) project, the Community HIV Epidemic Control (CHEC) differentiated service delivery model used community health workers to support HIV testing, ART linkage, viral suppression, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). A multi-methods assessment included programmatic data analysis from April 2015 to September 2020, and qualitative interviews from February to March 2020. CHEC provided HIV testing services to 1,379,387 clients; 46,138 were newly identified as HIV-positive (3.3% yield), with 41,366 (90%) linked to ART. By 2020, 91% (60,694/66,841) of clients on ART were virally suppressed. Qualitatively, healthcare workers and clients benefitted from CHEC, with provision of confidential services, health facility decongestion, and increased HIV care uptake and retention. Community-based models can increase uptake of HIV testing and linkage to care, and help achieve epidemic control and elimination of MTCT.

Economic evaluation of a cluster randomized, non-inferiority trial of differentiated service delivery models of HIV treatment in Zimbabwe.

About 85% of Zimbabwe's >1.4 million people living with HIV are on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Further expansion of its treatment program will require more efficient use of existing resources. Two promising strategies for reducing resource utilization per patient are multi-month medication dispensing and community-based service delivery. We evaluated the costs to providers and patients of community-based, multi-month ART delivery models in Zimbabwe. We used resource and outcome data from a cluster-randomized non-inferiority trial of three differentiated service delivery (DSD) models targeted to patients stable on ART: 3-month facility-based care (3MF), community ART refill groups (CAGs) with 3-month dispensing (3MC), and CAGs with 6-month dispensing (6MC). Using local unit costs, we estimated the annual cost in 2020 USD of providing HIV treatment per patient from the provider and patient perspectives. In the trial, retention at 12 months was 93.0% in the 3MF, 94.8% in the 3MC, and 95.5% in the 6MC arms. The total average annual cost of HIV treatment per patient was $187 (standard deviation $39), $178 ($30), and $167 ($39) in each of the three arms, respectively. The annual cost/patient was dominated by ART medications (79% in 3MF, 87% in 3MC; 92% in 6MC), followed by facility visits (12%, 5%, 5%, respectively) and viral load (8%, 8%, 2%, respectively). When costs were stratified by district, DSD models cost slightly less, with 6MC the least expensive in all districts. Savings were driven by differences in the number of facility visits made/year, as expected, and low uptake of annual viral load tests in the 6-month arm. The total annual cost to patients to obtain HIV care was $10.03 ($2) in the 3MF arm, $5.12 ($0.41) in the 3MC arm, and $4.40 ($0.39) in the 6MF arm. For stable ART patients in Zimbabwe, 3- and 6-month community-based multi-month dispensing models cost less for both providers and patients than 3-month facility-based care and had non-inferior outcomes.

Characteristics and short- and long-term direct medical costs among adults with timely and delayed presentation for HIV care in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: In Europe, half of people living with HIV (PLWH) present late to care, with associated higher morbidity and mortality. This study aims to assess short- and long-term costs of HIV-care based on time of presentation and identify other factors contributing to higher costs in the first and fifth year after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included ATHENA cohort data which prospectively includes 98% of PLWH in the Netherlands. PLWH who initiated ART in 2013 were included and followed over five years. PLWH were divided in three categories based on CD4 cell-count at time of ART initiation: timely presentation (CD4>350cells/µL), late presentation (CD4 200-350cells/µL or >350cells/µL with AIDS-defining illness) and very late presentation (CD4<200cells/µL). The total HIV-care cost was calculated distinguishing ART medication and non-ART medication costs (hospitalization, outpatient clinic visits, co-medications, and HIV-laboratory tests). RESULTS: From 1,296 PLWH, 273 (21%) presented late and 179 (14%) very late. Nearly half of those who entered HIV-care in a very late stage were of non-Dutch origin, with 21% originating from sub-Saharan Africa. The mean cost per patient in the first year was €12,902 (SD€11,098), of which about two-thirds due to ART (€8,250 (SD€3,142)). ART costs in the first and fifth year were comparable regardless of time of presentation. During the first year on treatment, non-ART medication costs were substantially higher among those with late presentation (€4,749 (SD€8,009)) and very late presentation (€15,886 (SD€ 21,834)), compared with timely presentation (€2,407(SD€4,511)). Higher non-ART costs were attributable to hospitalization and co-medication. The total non-ART costs incurred across five years on treatment were 56% and 246% higher for late and very late presentation respectively as compared to timely presentation. CONCLUSION: Very late presentation is associated with substantial costs, with non-ART costs nearly seven times higher than for those presenting timely. Hospitalization and co-medication costs are likely to continue to drive higher costs for individuals with late presentation into the future. Programs that identify individuals earlier will therefore likely provide significant short- and long-term health cost savings.

Relative cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable cabotegravir versus oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa based on the HPTN 083 and HPTN 084 trials: a modelled economic evaluation and threshold analysis.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir, a drug taken every 2 months, has been shown to be more effective at preventing HIV infection than daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine, but its cost-effectiveness in a high-prevalence setting is not known. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of long-acting injectable cabotegravir compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine in South Africa, using methods standard to government planning, and to determine the threshold price at which long-acting injectable cabotegravir is as cost-effective as tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine. METHODS: In this modelled economic evaluation and threshold analysis, we updated a deterministic model of the South African HIV epidemic with data from the HPTN 083 and HPTN 084 trials to evaluate the effect of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine and long-acting injectable cabotegravir provision to heterosexual adolescents and young women and men aged 15-24 years, female sex workers, and men who have sex with men. We estimated the average intervention cost, in 2021 US$, using ingredients-based costing, and modelled the cost-effectiveness of two coverage scenarios (medium or high, assuming higher uptake of long-acting injectable cabotegravir than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine throughout) and, for long-acting injectable cabotegravir, two duration subscenarios (minimum: same pre-exposure prophylaxis duration as for tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine; maximum: longer duration than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine) over 2022-41. FINDINGS: Across long-acting injectable cabotegravir scenarios, 15-28% more new HIV infections were averted compared with the baseline scenario (current tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine roll-out). In scenarios with increased coverage with oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine, 4-8% more new HIV infections were averted compared with the baseline scenario. If long-acting injectable cabotegravir drug costs were equal to those of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine for the same 2-month period, the incremental cost of long-acting injectable cabotegravir to the HIV programme was higher than that of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (5-10% vs 2-4%) due to higher assumed uptake of long-acting injectable cabotegravir. The cost per infection averted was $6053-6610 (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine) and $4471-6785 (long-acting injectable cabotegravir). The cost per long-acting cabotegravir injection needed to be less than twice that of a 2-month supply of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine to remain as cost-effective, with threshold prices ranging between $9·03 per injection (high coverage; maximum duration) and $14·47 per injection (medium coverage; minimum duration). INTERPRETATION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir could potentially substantially change HIV prevention. However, for its implementation to be financially feasible across low-income and middle-income countries with high HIV incidence, long-acting injectable cabotegravir must be reasonably priced. FUNDING: United States Agency for International Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Facility-based HIV self-testing strategies may substantially and cost-effectively increase the number of men and youth tested for HIV in Malawi: results from an individual-based mathematical model.

INTRODUCTION: Malawi is rapidly closing the gap in achieving the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, with 90% of people living with HIV in Malawi aware of their status. As we approach epidemic control, interventions to improve coverage will become more costly. There is, therefore, an urgent need to identify innovative and low-cost strategies to maintain and increase testing coverage without diverting resources from other HIV services. The objective of this study is to model different combinations of facility-based HIV testing modalities and determine the most cost-effective strategy to increase the proportion of men and youth testing for HIV. METHODS: A data-driven individual-based model was parameterized with data from a community-representative survey (socio-demographic, health service utilization and HIV testing history) of men and youth in Malawi (data collected August 2019). In total, 79 different strategies for the implementation of HIV self-testing (HIVST) and provider-initiated-testing-and-counselling at the outpatient department (OPD) were evaluated. Outcomes included percent of men/youth tested for HIV in a 12-month period, cost-effectiveness and human resource requirements. The testing yield was assumed to be constant across the scenarios. RESULTS: Facility-based HIVST offered year-round resulted in the greatest increase in the proportion of men and youth tested in the OPD (from 45% to 72%-83%), was considered cost-saving for HIVST kit priced at $1.00, and generally reduced required personnel as compared to the status quo. At higher HIVST kit prices, and more relaxed eligibility criteria, all scenarios that considered year-round HIVST in the OPD remained on the cost-effectiveness frontier. CONCLUSIONS: Facility-based HIVST is a cost-effective strategy to increase the proportion of men/youth tested for HIV in Malawi and decreases the human resource requirements for HIV testing in the OPD-providing additional healthcare worker time for other priority healthcare activities.

Factors associated with men's health facility attendance as clients and caregivers in Malawi: a community-representative survey.

INTRODUCTION: Men have higher rates of morbidity and mortality across nearly all top ten causes of mortality worldwide. Much of this disparity is attributed to men's lower utilization of routine health services; however, little is known about men's general healthcare utilization in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We analyze the responses of 1,116 men in a community-representative survey of men drawn from a multi-staged sample of residents of 36 villages in Malawi to identify factors associated with men's facility attendance in the last 12 months, either for men's own health (client visit) or to support the health care of someone else (caregiver visit). We conducted single-variable tests of association and multivariable logistic regression with random effects to account for clustering at the village level. RESULTS: Median age of participants was 34, 74% were married, and 82% attended a health facility in the last year (63% as client, 47% as caregiver). Neither gender norm beliefs nor socioeconomic factors were independently associated with attending a client visit. Only problems with quality of health services (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.294, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.10-0.823) and good health (aOR 0.668, 95% CI 0.462-0.967) were independently associated with client visit attendance. Stronger beliefs in gender norms were associated with caregiver visits (beliefs about acceptability of violence [aOR = 0.661, 95% CI 0.488-0.896], male sexual dominance [aOR = 0.703, 95% CI 0.505-0.978], and traditional women's roles [aOR = 0.718, 95% CI 0.533-0.966]). Older age (aOR 0.542, 95% CI 0.401-0.731) and being married (aOR 2.380, 95% CI 1.196-4.737) were also independently associated with caregiver visits. CONCLUSION: Quality of services offered at local health facilities and men's health status were the only variables associated with client facility visits among men, while harmful gender norms, not being married, and being younger were negatively associated with caregiver visits.

Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted. METHODS: In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting. FINDINGS: Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi), $43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa). INTERPRETATION: Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS: In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION: Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The early-stage comprehensive costs of routine PrEP implementation and scale-up in Zambia.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models. Taking a guidelines-based approach for visits, labs and drugs, we estimated the annual cost of providing PrEP per client for five delivery models: one focused on key populations (men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW), one on adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three integrated programs (operated within HIV counselling and testing services at primary healthcare centres). Program start-up and support costs were based on program expenditure data and number of PrEP sites and clients in 2018. PrEP clinic visit costs were based on micro-costing at two PrEP delivery sites (2018 USD). Costs are presented in 2018 prices and inflated to 2021 prices. The annual cost/PrEP client varied by service delivery model, from $394 (AGYW) to $655 (integrated model). Cost differences were driven largely by client volume, which impacted the relative costs of program support and technical assistance assigned to each PrEP client. Direct service delivery costs ranged narrowly from $205-212/PrEP-client and were a key component in the cost of PrEP, representing 35-65% of total costs. The results show that, even when integrated into full service delivery models, accessing vulnerable, marginalised populations at substantial risk of HIV infection is likely to cost more than previously estimated due to the programmatic costs involved in community sensitization and client support. Improved data on individual client resource usage and outcomes is required to get a better understanding of the true resource utilization, expected outcomes and annual costs of different PrEP service delivery programs in Zambia.

The cost effectiveness and optimal configuration of HIV self-test distribution in South Africa: a model analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been shown to be acceptable, feasible and effective in increasing HIV testing uptake. Novel testing strategies are critical to achieving the UNAIDS target of 95% HIV-positive diagnosis by 2025 in South Africa and globally. METHODS: We modelled the impact of six HIVST kit distribution modalities (community fixed-point, taxi ranks, workplace, partners of primary healthcare (PHC) antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients), partners of pregnant women, primary PHC distribution) in South Africa over 20 years (2020-2039), using data collected alongside the Self-Testing AfRica Initiative. We modelled two annual distribution scenarios: (A) 1 million HIVST kits (current) or (B) up to 6.7 million kits. Incremental economic costs (2019 US$) were estimated from the provider perspective; assumptions on uptake and screening positivity were based on surveys of a subset of kit recipients and modelled using the Thembisa model. Cost-effectiveness of each distribution modality compared with the status-quo distribution configuration was estimated as cost per life year saved (estimated from life years lost due to AIDS) and optimised using a fractional factorial design. RESULTS: The largest impact resulted from secondary HIVST distribution to partners of ART patients at PHC (life years saved (LYS): 119 000 (scenario A); 393 000 (scenario B)). However, it was one of the least cost-effective modalities (A: $1394/LYS; B: $4162/LYS). Workplace distribution was cost-saving ($52-$76 million) and predicted to have a moderate epidemic impact (A: 40 000 LYS; B: 156 000 LYS). An optimised scale-up to 6.7 million tests would result in an almost threefold increase in LYS compared with a scale-up of status-quo distribution (216 000 vs 75 000 LYS). CONCLUSION: Optimisation-informed distribution has the potential to vastly improve the impact of HIVST. Using this approach, HIVST can play a key role in improving the long-term health impact of investment in HIVST.