Risk of Stroke, Death, and Myocardial Infarction Following Transcarotid Artery Revascularization vs Carotid Endarterectomy in Patients With Standard Surgical Risk.

Importance: Carotid artery stenting has been limited to use in patients with high surgical risk; outcomes in patients with standard surgical risk are not well known. Objective: To compare stroke, death, and myocardial infarction outcomes following transcarotid artery revascularization vs carotid endarterectomy in patients with standard surgical risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective propensity-matched cohort study was conducted from August 2016 to August 2019 with follow-up until August 31, 2020, using data from the multicenter Vascular Quality Initiative Carotid Artery Stent and Carotid Endarterectomy registries. Patients with standard surgical risk, defined as those lacking Medicare-defined high medical or surgical risk characteristics and undergoing transcarotid artery revascularization (n = 2962) or carotid endarterectomy (n = 35 063) for atherosclerotic carotid disease. In total, 760 patients were excluded for treatment of multiple lesions or in conjunction with other procedures. Exposures: Transcarotid artery revascularization vs carotid endarterectomy. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite end point of 30-day stroke, death, or myocardial infarction or 1-year ipsilateral stroke. Results: After 1:3 matching, 2962 patients undergoing transcarotid artery revascularization (mean [SD] age, 70.4 [6.9] years; 1910 [64.5%] male) and 8886 undergoing endarterectomy (mean [SD] age, 70.0 [6.5] years; 5777 [65.0%] male) were identified. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of the primary composite end point between the 2 cohorts (transcarotid 3.0% vs endarterectomy 2.6%; absolute difference, 0.40% [95% CI, -0.43% to 1.24%]; relative risk [RR], 1.14 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.50]; P = .34). Transcarotid artery revascularization was associated with a higher risk of 1-year ipsilateral stroke (1.6% vs 1.1%; absolute difference, 0.52% [95% CI, 0.03 to 1.08]; RR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.05 to 2.11%]; P = .02) but no difference in 1-year all-cause mortality (2.6% vs 2.5%; absolute difference, -0.13% [95% CI, -0.18% to 0.33%]; RR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.78 to 1.39]; P = .67). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the risk of 30-day stroke, death, or myocardial infarction or 1-year ipsilateral stroke was similar in patients undergoing transcarotid artery revascularization compared with those undergoing endarterectomy for carotid stenosis.

Clinical impact of sex on carotid revascularization.

BACKGROUND: The impact of sex in the management of carotid disease is unclear in the current literature. Therefore, we evaluated the effect of sex on perioperative outcomes following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS). METHODS: We included patients who underwent CEA or CAS between 2012 and 2017 in the Vascular Quality Initiative database. Our primary outcome was perioperative stroke/death. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital stroke, 30-day mortality, and in-hospital MI. We compared perioperative outcomes between female and male patients, stratified by treatment modality and symptom status, and used multivariable regression to account for differences in baseline characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 83,436 patients underwent either a CEA (71,383) or CAS (12,053). Asymptomatic and symptomatic CEA females were less likely to be on a preoperative antiplatelet agent, when compared to males. Females overall, were less likely to be on a preoperative statin and more likely to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Within the CAS cohort, females were more likely to have a previous ipsilateral CEA. There were no differences between males and females in major adverse events following CEA for asymptomatic disease. Following CEA for symptomatic disease, there was no difference in stroke/death rate or in-hospital stroke. However, females experienced a higher 30-mortality after adjustment (univariate: 1.0% vs 0.7%, P = .04; adjusted: odds ratio [OR], 1.4:1.02-1.94). Following CAS for asymptomatic disease, females experienced a higher rate of perioperative stroke/death (2.9% vs 1.9% P = .02; OR, 1.5: 1.05-2.03) and in-hospital stroke (2.1% vs 1.2% P = .01; OR, 1.8: 1.20-2.60). There were no differences in outcomes for symptomatic females vs males undergoing CAS. CONCLUSIONS: Females with carotid disease less frequently receive optimal medical treatment with antiplatelet agents and statins. This is an important target area for quality improvement issue in both females and males. Furthermore, among symptomatic CEA patients the female sex is associated with higher mortality and among asymptomatic CAS patients, females experience higher rates of stroke/death. These findings suggest that careful patient selection is necessary in the treatment of female patients. Quality improvement projects should be created to further investigate and eliminate the disparities of optimal medical management between the sexes.

A Novel Quality of Life Instrument for Patients with an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: The surveillance and treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) may impact patient quality of life (QOL). A novel AAA specific QOL instrument was developed and validated to quantify the impact of AAA surveillance on QOL. METHODS: The study was performed in two phases: development (2011-2013) and validation (2013-2014) of a survey instrument. Content was informed by focus groups at three centres (22 patients) and two multidisciplinary physician focus groups (6 vascular surgeons, 7 primary care providers). Cognitive interviews (17 patients) ensured questions were understood as intended. The final survey was mailed to AAA patients at six US institutions. Patients were scored on two AAA specific domains of QOL: emotional impact (EIS) and behavioural change (BCS), range 0-100 with higher scores indicating worse quality of life. Test retest reliability and internal consistency were assessed. Discriminant validity was determined by comparing scores between patients under surveillance vs. those who had undergone AAA repair. Scores were externally validated by correlation with the Short Form (SF)-12. RESULTS: A total of 1,008 (73%) of 1,373 patients returned surveys: 351 (35%) were under surveillance, 657 (65%) had undergone repair (endovascular, 414; open, 179; unsure, 64). Median EIS was 11 (range 0-95; IQR 7-26). Median BCS was 13 (range 0-100; IQR 9-47). To test reliability, 337 patients repeated the survey after four weeks with no significant differences between scores over time. EIS and BCS demonstrated good internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha 0.85 and 0.75 respectively). There was strong correlation between scores (r = 0.53) and both related moderately to SF-12 scores (r = 0.45 and r = 0.39, respectively). Patients under AAA surveillance had worse EIS than repair patients (22 vs. 13; p < .001). Patients with a higher perceived rupture risk had a worse EIS (45 vs. 12; p < .001) and BCS (30 vs. 13; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: An AAA specific QOL instrument was successfully created and validated. The range of impact on QOL by AAA surveillance is broad. For most patients the impact is minimal, but for some, especially those with a greater perceived rupture risk, it is severe.

The Prevalence and Regional Variation of Major Depressive Disorder Among Patients With Peripheral Arterial Disease in the Medicare Population.

BACKGROUND: Current evidence suggests an association between coronary artery disease and major depressive disorder (MDD). Data to support a similar association between peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and MDD are more limited. This study examines the prevalence and regional variation of both PAD and MDD in a large contemporary patient sample. METHODS: All Medicare claims, part A and B, from January 2009 until December 2011 were queried using diagnosis codes specific for a previously validated clinical algorithm for PAD and major depression. Codes for PAD included those specific to cerebrovascular disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, and peripheral vascular disease. Peripheral arterial disease prevalence, major depression prevalence, and coprevalence rates were determined, respectively. Regional variation of both conditions was determined using zip code data to identify potential endemic areas of disease intensity for both diagnoses. RESULTS: Over the study interval, the percentage of Medicare beneficiaries with a diagnosis of PAD remained relatively constant (3.0%-3.7%, n = 0.85-1.06 million in part A and 17.4%-17.5%, n = 4.82-4.93 million in part B), and MDD showed a similar trend (1.6%-2.7%, n = 0.46-0.79 million in part A and 6.1%-6.7%, n = 1.69-1.90 million in part B). The observed rate of MDD in those with an established diagnosis of PAD was 5-fold higher than those without PAD in part A claims (1.8-fold in part B claims). Moreover, there was a significant linear geographic correlation among patients with PAD and MDD (r = .54, P ≤ .01). CONCLUSIONS: This study documents a correlation between PAD and MDD and may, therefore, identify an at-risk population susceptible to inferior clinical outcomes. Significant regional variation exists in the prevalence of PAD and MDD, though there appear to be specific endemic regions notable for both disorders. Accordingly, health-care resource allocation toward endemic regions may help improve population health among this at-risk cohort.

A national survey of disease-specific knowledge in patients with an abdominal aortic aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: Patient education is a fundamental responsibility of medical providers caring for patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). We sought to evaluate and quantify AAA-specific knowledge in patients under AAA surveillance and in patients who have undergone AAA repair. METHODS: In 2013, 1373 patients from 6 U.S. institutions were mailed an AAA-specific quality of life and knowledge survey. Of these patients, 1008 (73%) returned completed surveys for analysis. The knowledge domain of the survey consisted of nine questions. An AAA knowledge score was calculated for each patient based on the proportion of questions answered correctly. The score was then compared according to sex, race, and education level. Surveillance and repaired patients were also compared. RESULTS: Among 1008 survey respondents, 351 were under AAA surveillance and 657 had AAA repair (endovascular repair, 414; open, 179; unknown, 64). The majority of patients (85%) reported that their "doctor's office" was their most important source of AAA information. The "Internet" and "other written materials" were each reported as the most important source of information 5% of the time with "other patients" reported 2% of the time. The mean AAA knowledge score was 47% (range 0%-100%; standard deviation, 23%) with a broad variation in percentage correct between questions. Thirty-two percent of respondents did not know that larger AAA size increases rupture risk, and 64% did not know that AAA runs in families. Only 15% of patients answered six or more of the nine questions correctly, and 23% of patients answered two or fewer questions correctly. AAA knowledge was significantly greater in men compared with women, whites compared with nonwhites, high school graduates compared with nongraduates, and surveillance compared with repaired patients. CONCLUSIONS: In a national survey of AAA-specific knowledge, patients demonstrated poor understanding of their condition. This may contribute to anxiety and uninformed decision making. The need for increased focus on education by vascular providers is a substantial unmet need.

Physician specialty and variation in carotid revascularization technique selected for Medicare patients.

OBJECTIVE: Carotid artery stenting (CAS) has become an alternative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for select patients with carotid atherosclerosis. We hypothesized that the choice of CAS vs CEA varies as a function of treating physician specialty, which would result in regional variation in the relative use of these treatment types. METHODS: We used Medicare claims (2002-2010) to calculate annual rates of CAS and CEA and examined changes by procedure type over time. To assess regional preferences surrounding CAS, we calculated the proportion of revascularizations by CAS, across hospital referral regions, defined according to the Dartmouth Atlas of Healthcare. We then examined relationships between patient factors, physician specialty, and regional use of CAS. RESULTS: The annual number of all carotid revascularization procedures decreased by 30% from 2002 to 2010 (3.2 to 2.3 per 1000; P = .005). Whereas rates of CEA declined by 35% during these 8 years (3.0 to 1.9 per 1000; P < .001), CAS utilization increased by 5% during the same interval (0.30 to 0.32 per 1000; P = .014). Variation in utilization of carotid revascularization varied across the Unites States, with some regions performing as few as 0.7 carotid procedure per 1000 beneficiaries (Honolulu, Hawaii) and others performing nearly 8 times as many (5.3 per 1000 in Houma, La). Variation in procedure type (CEA vs CAS) was evident as well, as the proportion of carotid revascularization procedures that were constituted by CAS varied from 0% (Casper, Wyo, and Meridian, Miss) to 53% (Bend, Ore). The majority of CAS procedures were performed by cardiologists (49% of all CAS cases), who doubled their rates of CAS during the study period from 0.07 per 1000 in 2002 to 0.15 per 1000 in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in rates of carotid revascularization exists. Whereas rates of carotid revascularization have declined by more than 30% in recent years, utilization of CAS has increased. The proportion of all carotid revascularization procedures performed as CAS varies markedly by geographic region, and regions with the highest proportion of cardiologists perform the most CAS procedures. Evidence-based guidelines for carotid revascularization will require a multidisciplinary approach to ensure uniform adoption across specialties that care for patients with carotid artery disease.

Lesion complexity drives the cost of superficial femoral artery endovascular interventions.

OBJECTIVE: Patients who undergo endovascular treatment of superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease vary greatly in lesion complexity and treatment options. This study examined the association of lesion severity and cost of SFA stenting and to determine if procedure cost affects primary patency at 1 year. METHODS: A retrospective record review identified patients undergoing initial SFA stenting between January 1, 2010, and February 1, 2012. Medical records were reviewed to collect data on demographics, comorbidities, indication for the procedure, TransAtlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) II severity, and primary patency. The interventional radiology database and hospital accounting database were queried to determine cost drivers of SFA stenting. Procedure supply cost included any item with a bar code used for the procedure. Associations between cost drivers and lesion characteristics were explored. Primary patency was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a log-rank test. RESULTS: During the study period, 95 patients underwent stenting in 98 extremities; of these, 61% of SFA stents were performed for claudication, with 80% of lesions classified as TASC II A or B. Primary patency at 1 year was 79% for the entire cohort. The mean total cost per case was $10,333. Increased procedure supply cost was associated with adjunct device use, the number of stents, and TASC II severity. Despite higher costs of treating more complex lesions, primary patency at 1 year was similar at 80% for high-cost (supply cost >$4000) vs 78% for low-cost (supply cost <$4000) interventions. CONCLUSIONS: SFA lesion complexity, as defined by TASC II severity, drives the cost of endovascular interventions but does not appear to disadvantage patency at 1 year. Reimbursement agencies should consider incorporating disease severity into reimbursement algorithms for lower extremity endovascular interventions.

National trends in utilization, mortality, and survival after repair of type B aortic dissection in the Medicare population.

OBJECTIVE: The application of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has changed treatment paradigms for thoracic aortic disease. We sought to better define specific treatment patterns and outcomes for type B aortic dissection treated with TEVAR or open surgical repair (OSR). METHODS: Medicare patients undergoing type B thoracic aortic dissection repair (2000-2010) were identified by use of a validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnostic and procedural code-based algorithm. Trends in utilization were analyzed by procedure type (OSR vs TEVAR), and patterns in patient characteristics and outcomes were examined. RESULTS: Total thoracic aortic dissection repairs increased by 21% between 2000 and 2010 (2.5 to 3 per 100,000 Medicare patients; P = .001). A concomitant increase in TEVAR was seen during the same interval (0.03 to 0.8 per 100,000; P < .001). By 2010, TEVAR represented 27% of all repairs. TEVAR patients had higher rates of comorbid congestive heart failure (12% vs 9%; P < .001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (17% vs 10%; P < .001), diabetes (8% vs 5%; P < .001), and chronic renal failure (8% vs 3%; P < .001) compared with OSR patients. For all repairs, patient comorbidity burden increased over time (mean Charlson comorbidity score of 0.79 in 2000, 1.10 in 2010; P = .04). During this same interval, in-hospital mortality rates declined from 47% to 23% (P < .001), a trend seen in both TEVAR and OSR patients. Whereas in-hospital mortality rates and 3-year survival were similar between patients selected for TEVAR and OSR, there was a trend toward women having slightly lower 3-year survival after TEVAR (60% women vs 63% men; P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical treatment of type B aortic dissection has increased over time, reflecting an increase in the utilization of TEVAR. Overall, type B dissection repairs are currently performed at lower mortality risk in patients with more comorbidities.

The financial implications of endovascular aneurysm repair in the cost containment era.

OBJECTIVE: Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is associated with significant direct device costs. Such costs place EVAR at odds with efforts to constrain healthcare expenditures. This study examines the procedure-associated costs and operating margins associated with EVAR at a tertiary care academic medical center. METHODS: All infrarenal EVARs performed from April 2011 to March 2012 were identified (n = 127). Among this cohort, 49 patients met standard commercial instruction for use guidelines, were treated using a single manufacturer device, and billed to Medicare diagnosis-related group (DRG) 238. Of these 49 patients, net technical operating margins (technical revenue minus technical cost) were calculated in conjunction with the hospital finance department. EVAR implant costs were determined for each procedure. DRG 238-associated costs and length of stay were benchmarked against other academic medical centers using University Health System Consortium 2012 data. RESULTS: Among the studied EVAR cohort (age 75, 82% male, mean length of stay, 1.7 days), mean technical costs totaled $31,672. Graft implants accounted for 52% of the allocated technical costs. Institutional overhead was 17% ($5495) of total technical costs. Net mean total technical EVAR-associated operating margins were -$4015 per procedure. Our institutional costs and length of stay, when benchmarked against comparable centers, remained in the lowest quartile nationally using University Health System Consortium costs for DRG 238. Stent graft price did not correlate with total EVAR market share. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR is currently associated with significant negative operating margins among Medicare beneficiaries. Currently, device costs account for over 50% of EVAR-associated technical costs and did not impact EVAR market share, reflecting an unawareness of cost differential among surgeons. These data indicate that EVAR must undergo dramatic care delivery redesign for this practice to remain sustainable.

Severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with adverse outcomes in patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

INTRODUCTION: Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been implicated as a risk factor for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture, its effect on surgical repair is less defined. Consequently, variation in practice persists regarding patient selection and surgical management. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of COPD on patients undergoing AAA repair. METHODS: We reviewed a prospective regional registry of 3455 patients undergoing elective open AAA repair (OAR) and endovascular AAA repair (EVAR) from 23 centers in the Vascular Study Group of New England from 2003 to 2011. COPD was categorized as none, medical (medically treated but not oxygen [O2]-dependent), and O2-dependent. End points included in-hospital death, pulmonary complications, major postoperative adverse events (MAEs), extubation in the operating room, and 5-year survival. Survival was determined using life-table analysis based on the Social Security Death Index. Predictors of in-hospital and long-term mortality were determined by multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: During the study interval, 2043 patients underwent EVAR and 1412 patients underwent OAR with a nearly equal prevalence of COPD (35% EVAR vs 36% OAR). O2-dependent COPD (4%) was associated with significantly increased in-hospital mortality, pulmonary complications, and MAE and was also associated with significantly decreased extubation in the operating room among patients undergoing both EVAR and OAR. Five-year survival was significantly diminished among all patients undergoing AAA repair with COPD (none, 78%; medical, 72%; O2-dependent, 42%; P < .001). By multivariate analysis, O2-dependent COPD was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 2.02, 95% confidence interval, 1.0-4.0; P = .04) and diminished 5-year survival (hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.1; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with O2-dependent COPD undergoing AAA repair suffer increased pulmonary complications, overall MAE, and diminished long-term survival. This must be carefully factored into the risk-benefit analysis before recommending elective AAA repair in these patients.

Optimal selection of asymptomatic patients for carotid endarterectomy based on predicted 5-year survival.

OBJECTIVE: Although carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is performed to prevent stroke, long-term survival is essential to ensure benefit, especially in asymptomatic patients. We examined factors associated with 5-year survival following CEA in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from 4114 isolated CEAs performed for asymptomatic stenosis across 24 centers in the Vascular Study Group of New England between 2003 and 2011 were used for this analysis. Late survival was determined with the Social Security Death Index. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify risk factors for mortality within the first 5 years after CEA and to calculate a risk score for predicting 5-year survival. RESULTS: Overall 3- and 5-year survival after CEA in asymptomatic patients were 90% (95% CI 89%-91%) and 82% (95% CI 81%-84%), respectively. By multivariate analysis, increasing age, diabetes, smoking history, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, poor renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 or dialysis dependence), absence of statin use, and worse contralateral ICA stenosis were all associated with worse survival. Patients classified as low (27%), medium (68%), and high risk (5%) based on number of risk factors had 5-year survival rates of 96%, 80%, and 51%, respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: More than four out of five asymptomatic patients selected for CEA in the Vascular Study Group of New England achieved 5-year survival, demonstrating that, overall, surgeons in our region selected appropriate patients for carotid revascularization. However, there were patients selected for surgery with high risk profiles, and our models suggest that the highest risk patients (such as those with multiple major risk factors including age ≥ 80, insulin-dependent diabetes, dialysis dependence, and severe contralateral ICA stenosis) are unlikely to survive long enough to realize a benefit of prophylactic CEA for asymptomatic stenosis. Predicting survival is important for decision making in these patients.

Derivation and validation of a practical risk score for prediction of mortality after open repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms in a US regional cohort and comparison to existing scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE: Scoring systems for predicting mortality after repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs) have not been developed or tested in a United States population and may not be accurate in the endovascular era. Using prospectively collected data from the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE), we developed a practical risk score for in-hospital mortality after open repair of RAAAs and compared its performance to that of the Glasgow aneurysm score, Hardman index, Vancouver score, and Edinburg ruptured aneurysm score. METHODS: Univariate analysis followed by multivariable analysis of patient, prehospital, anatomic, and procedural characteristics identified significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Integer points were derived from the odds ratio (OR) for mortality based on each independent predictor in order to generate a VSGNE RAAA risk score, which was internally validated using bootstrapping methodology. Discrimination and calibration of all models were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (C-statistic) and applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2009, 242 patients underwent open repair of RAAAs at 10 centers. In-hospital mortality was 38% (n = 91). Independent predictors of mortality included age >76 years (OR, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-10.1), preoperative cardiac arrest (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6-12), loss of consciousness (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2-6), and suprarenal aortic clamp (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.6). Patient stratification according to the VSGNE RAAA risk score (range, 0-6) accurately predicted mortality and identified those at low and high risk for death (8%, 25%, 37%, 60%, 80%, and 87% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5, respectively). Discrimination (C = .79) and calibration (χ(2) = 1.96; P = .85) were excellent in the derivation and bootstrap samples and superior to that of existing scoring systems. The Glasgow aneurysm score, Hardman index, Vancouver score, and Edinburg ruptured aneurysm score correlated with mortality in the VSGNE cohort but failed to identify accurately patients with a risk of mortality >65%. CONCLUSIONS: Existing scoring systems predict mortality after RAAA repair in this cohort but do not identify patients at highest risk. This parsimonious VSGNE RAAA risk score based on four variables readily assessed at the time of presentation allows accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality after open repair of RAAAs, including identification of those patients at highest risk for postoperative mortality.

The Vascular Study Group of New England Cardiac Risk Index (VSG-CRI) predicts cardiac complications more accurately than the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in vascular surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE: The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a widely used model for predicting cardiac events after noncardiac surgery. We compared the accuracy of the RCRI with a new, vascular surgery-specific model developed from patients within the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE). METHODS: We studied 10,081 patients who underwent nonemergent carotid endarterectomy (CEA; n = 5293), lower extremity bypass (LEB; n = 2673), endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR; n = 1005), and open infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (OAAA; n = 1,110) within the VSGNE from 2003 to 2008. First, we analyzed the ability of the RCRI to predict in-hospital major adverse cardiac events, including myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, or congestive heart failure (CHF) in the VSGNE cohort. Second, we used a derivation cohort of 8208 to develop a new cardiac risk prediction model specifically for vascular surgery patients. Chi-square analysis identified univariate predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an aggregate and four procedure-specific risk prediction models for cardiac complications. Calibration and model discrimination were assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ability of the model to predict cardiac complications was assessed within a validation cohort of 1873. Significant predictors were converted to an integer score to create a practical cardiac risk prediction formula. RESULTS: The overall incidence of major cardiac events in the VSGNE cohort was 6.3% (2.5% MI, 3.9% arrhythmia, 1.8% CHF). The RCRI predicted risk after CEA reasonably well but substantially underestimated risk after LEB, EVAR, and OAAA for low- and higher-risk patients. Across all VSGNE patients, the RCRI underestimated cardiac complications by 1.7- to 7.4-fold based on actual event rates of 2.6%, 6.7%, 11.6%, and 18.4% for patients with 0, 1, 2, and >or=3 risk factors. In multivariate analysis of the VSGNE cohort, independent predictors of adverse cardiac events were (odds ratio [OR]) increasing age (1.7-2.8), smoking (1.3), insulin-dependent diabetes (1.4), coronary artery disease (1.4), CHF (1.9), abnormal cardiac stress test (1.2), long-term beta-blocker therapy (1.4), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.6), and creatinine >or=1.8 mg/dL (1.7). Prior cardiac revascularization was protective (OR, 0.8). Our aggregate model was well calibrated (r = 0.99, P < .001), demonstrating moderate discriminative ability (ROC curve = 0.71), which differed only slightly from the procedure-specific models (ROC curves: CEA, 0.74; LEB, 0.72; EVAR, 0.74; OAAA, 0.68). Rates of cardiac complications for patients with 0 to 3, 4, 5, and >or=6 VSG risk factors were 3.1%, 5.0%, 6.8%, and 11.6% in the derivation cohort and 3.8%, 5.2%, 8.1%, and 10.1% in the validation cohort. The VSGNE cardiac risk model more accurately predicted the actual risk of cardiac complications across the four procedures for low- and higher-risk patients than the RCRI. When the VSG Cardiac Risk Index (VSG-CRI) was used to score patients, six categories of risk ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% (score of 0-3 to 8) were discernible. CONCLUSIONS: The RCRI substantially underestimates in-hospital cardiac events in patients undergoing elective or urgent vascular surgery, especially after LEB, EVAR, and OAAA. The VSG-CRI more accurately predicts in-hospital cardiac events after vascular surgery and represents an important tool for clinical decision making.

The value of 3D-CT angiographic assessment prior to carotid stenting.

OBJECTIVE: Anatomic suitability for carotid artery stenting (CAS) is determined by arteriography, but this has a discrete stroke risk. We evaluated the use of multidetector CT angiography with three-dimensional reconstruction (3D-CTA) as a noninvasive screening tool for prospective CAS patients. METHODS: Between 2003 and 2006, 90 CAS procedures were performed by vascular surgeons at our institution. At the discretion of the operating surgeon, 59 of the potential candidates for CAS underwent screening 3D-CTA of the aortic arch and carotid arteries. Results were used in patient selection and then analyzed retrospectively to determine clinical utility. RESULTS: Analysis of 3D-CTA data by the operating surgeon allowed stratification of patients into four groups: (1) appropriate for CAS via femoral approach (n = 37, 63%); (2) appropriate for CAS with transcervical access due to adverse arch anatomy (n = 2, 3%); (3) borderline anatomy for CAS (n = 5, 9%); or (4) not appropriate anatomy for CAS (n = 15, 25%). Group 1 had 100% technical success with one minor stroke. Group 2 had successful transcervical CAS without stroke. Group 3 patients underwent arteriography but CAS was aborted in four out of five cases for the same reason that had been identified by 3D-CTA (internal carotid artery [ICA] tortuosity n = 2, ICA string sign with distal disease n = 2). The one failure in group 3 was the result of a previously placed common carotid stent extending into an already unfavorable aortic arch. Group 4 patients underwent endarterectomy (n = 7) or continued medical management (n = 8) instead of CAS (without arteriography) because of the following reasons, cited alone or in combination: common carotid tandem stenosis n = 5, difficult arch anatomy n = 2, ICA tortuosity n = 2, extreme lesion calcification or length n = 4, ICA string sign or occlusion n = 3, concomitant intracranial disease n = 2, and stenosis overestimated by duplex n = 3. The overall 30-day stroke rate, on an intention to treat basis, for patients that underwent preprocedural 3D-CTA was 2.3% (one major [NIH stroke scale >3] and one minor stroke). CONCLUSIONS: In our initial experience, 3D-CTA reconstruction of the aortic arch and carotid arteries significantly influenced the plan for CAS in 37% of patients. Patients with clear anatomic contraindications to CAS can be excluded without the risks of arteriography. 3D-CTA further facilitates the CAS procedure by anticipating potential procedural. The cost-effectiveness and potential impact of this imaging modality on CAS outcomes deserve further study.